gerrymander_00

The Original Gerry Mander

The Constitution tasks the House of Representatives with setting the number of U. S. citizens that its members may represent. The Apportionment Act of 1792 fixed the House of Representatives for the Third Congress at 105 members, one Representative for 33,000 constituents. The Census of 1790, first of its kind, found the young nation numbering around 3,900,000 individuals. For purposes of computing the ratio of representatives to those represented, slaves constituted three-fifths of a free person.

112 years on, 1901, roughly midway between the Constitution’s ratification and the present day, each Representative of the 57th Congress fielded the concerns of 213,000 people and carried a six-fold increase in “representational load” over his 1792 counterpart. The House then had 357 members representing around 76 million. Had the House stayed with its 1792 ratio of one Representative to 33,000 constituents, it would have had 2,303 members in 1901, far more than what the seating in the south wing of the Capitol building could accommodate.

114 years on, the 114th Congress finds a House of 435 voting members, a number which has been fixed since the Apportionment Act of 1911. These worthies now represent about 309 million, or roughly 710,000 citizens per Representative, a four-fold increase over the 1901 representational load and a twenty-four fold increase over that of 1792. At the original ratio, the House would have almost 9,364 members, a number making for a mad house – though some think it is anyway.

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Fake_Bull

When stocks on the Shanghai Securities Exchange, the SSE, “corrected” on August 24, 2015, stocks in US and other markets followed. But nothing has fundamentally changed. None of the “Fundamentals” on any publicly traded U.S. or European companies have significantly changed (other than the Market Capitalization and Price Earnings ratios, which are, of course, functions of the stock price). Earnings per Share, EPS, the existence or lack thereof of what Warren Buffett calls a “moat,” debt to asset ratios, return on income, other financial ratios, were and remain unaffected by day to day fluctuations of stock price.

chargingbull

Charging Bull, by Arturo Di Monica

Stocks that were fundamentally bad investments on Friday, August 21, 2015 were likely to have been bad investments on Tuesday. August 25, 2015. Stocks that were good investments on Friday, August 21, 2015, were fundamentally somewhat better investments on Tuesday. August 25, 2015.

Dancer on the Markets

Dancing on the Charging Bull

The SSE Composite is not the S&P 500, or even the Dow. While there are frequent scandals involving insider trading and other financial improprieties, they are the exception and there are regulations designed to keep them that way. China, on the other hand …

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index, the SSE Composite, looks kind of like the S&P 500. However, there are key differences between the indices.

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PL_Port.1508bAccording to Adam Haigh, Bloomberg Business the current stock market valuation “Correction” may be complete. Meanwhile, in the microeconomic world of energy, as illustrated above, the Sustainable Energy portfolio” I created in December, 2012, here, rose slightly above the close of trading Friday, August 21, 2015, while the Fossil Fuel portfolio, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial average closed below their values at the close of trading on 21 August, 2015.

Mr. Haigh, in  Asian Stocks Rise as U.S. Equity Rout Halted; China Futures Gain, wrote,

Asian stocks rose for a second day after U.S. shares halted a six-day rout.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9 percent to 127.93 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 3.9 percent, the most since 2011. Two things that have supported U.S. stocks in the past, dovish words from the Federal Reserve and improved economic data, halted a plunge that erased $2.2 trillion from equity values.

But the long term trend in energy stocks, first reported by me here in February, 2013, appears to be persistent. Solar and Wind stocks may be continuing to climb; Fossil fuel stocks may be continuing to decline. Either or both of these trends could, of course, reverse.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below. [click to continue…]

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PLPort.1508On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 Million in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 Million in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $5.26 Million, down 34.28% overall, 12.85% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $16.2 Million, up 102.6%, 38.48% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25.74%, 9.65% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 16,460 on 8/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 37.8%, from 1,430 to close at 1,971 on 8/21/15.
  • The Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy portfolios, like the indices, are down in the last month.

The conclusion, that investors are moving away from Fossil Fuels and into Sustainable Energy, seems logical, if not obvious.

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On August 17, 2015, I attended the Board of Public Utilities, BPU, hearings regarding New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan, EMP.

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

A lot of people, myself included, spoke about Sandy. (Photos, click here).

Many spoke of the need for the BPU to act independently of the Governor and think long term.

No one spoke about a need or want for more fossil fuels or more nuclear.

The lobbyist from the NJ GCA, The Gasoline, C-Store, Automotive Association told the commissioners how happy he was that he installed a solar energy system on his home and said that gas stations need robust electricity. They can’t simply install emergency generators that burn diesel or gasoline.

Image of the Lillgrund, Sweden wind farm, courtesy of Siemens

Lillgrund, Sweden, courtesy Siemens

I called for: 140% clean, renewable, sustainable electricity by 2030:

  • Solar: 3.5 GW
  • Wind: 3.5 GW
  • Batteries: 1.5 GW
  • Biofuel: 1.5 GW

Including:

  • 250 MW of solar in a 100 KW array on each of the 2500 public schools,
  • 125 MW of battery backups, in a 50 KW Tesla Powerwall or equivalent system on each public school,
  • These would give us emergency shelters, with power, in every community in New Jersey.
  • A Capstone microturbine, or the equivalent at each sewage treatment plant.

These, I explained, would make the grid more resilient.

I also added that Wall Street appears to be abandoning fossil fuels. This observation is based on the data collected from Dec. 12, 2012, and published on Popular Logistics, here, that show that for the period from Dec. 21, 2012 to July 21, 2015,

  • Sustainable Energy: Up 121%, 46.7% per year.
  • Fossil Fuel: DOWN 25% overall, -9.26% per year,
  • S&P 500: Up 47.54%, 18.41% per year.

The full text of my prepared remarks is below:

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PLPort.1507On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.09 Million, down 23.93%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $17.64 Million, up 120.54%.
  • Both Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy are down slightly in the last month.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.6%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 18,016 on 7/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.6%, from 1,430 to close at 2,110 on 7/21/15.

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Elgin Marbles in the British Museum

The National Debt of Greece, according to National Debt Clocks . Org, here, as of Thursday, July 10, 2015, 10:45 PM EST, was $380 Billion USD and 345 Billion Euros.

A lot of money, but only $32k EU per person, only slightly higher than the typical American college student’s debt. (US News reported, here, “69 percent [of 2013 graduates] left school with an average of $28,400 in student loan debt.”)

But back to Greece …

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Image of the fire from the oil spill

Deepwater Horizon Spill in 2010. Photo: Gerald Herbert, AP.

11 Crew were lost in the explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20, 2010. In addition, roughly 5.2 million barrels of oil poured into the Gulf of Mexico during the 87 days between April 20, 2010 when the explosion occurred and July 15, 2010 when the well was capped.

BP, found guilty of “Gross Negligence” and “Willful Misconduct” in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, (BBC, EcoWatch), has agreed to pay $18.7 Billion over the next 15 years (BP Press Release, Reuters) to settle various claims with the United States, the states of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, and others.  This amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization.

Pursuant to the agreements, BP will pay $1.1 Billion per year over the next 15 years. While the $18.7 Billion amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization of $125.59 Billion, the $1.1 Billion per year is only a loss of 0.88% of BP’s current market capitalization each year.

However,

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PLPort.2015.6.21On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.54 Million, down 18.24%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.259 Million, up 128.24%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.6%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 18,061 on 6/20/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.55%, from 1,430 to 2,110.
  • The Energy Portfolios and the Indices are down in the last month.

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PLPort.1505On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.95 Million, down 13.1%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.98 Million, up 137.3%.
  • Both Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy are down slightly in the last month.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 39.7%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 18,286 on 5/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 49%, from 1,430 to 2,131.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 4 Months: Sustainable Energy up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%

by L J Furman, MBA April 21, 2015

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space, The […]

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Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: UP 128%, Fossil Fuels: DOWN 16%

by L J Furman, MBA March 21, 2015

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the Fossil Fuel space. The pattern, clear by March, 2013, is the Sustainable Energy Space is outperforming and the Fossil Fuel space is underperforming the indices. Excluding […]

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 109%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 11.8%

by L J Furman, MBA February 23, 2015

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, Fossil Fuel portfolio: from $8.0 M to $7.06 Million, down 11.76%. Sustainable Energy portfolio: from […]

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If Not Vaccines, What Triggers Autism?

by L J Furman, MBA February 1, 2015

“Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine” – “Casablanca. Once rare, the incidence of Autism has increased exponentially from less than 0.02% of boys to 2.38%. Before the MMR Vaccine: 400 to 500 died each year as Millions contracted the disease. Due to widespread administration […]

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 1 Month: Sustainable Energy up 85%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 14.6%

by L J Furman, MBA January 27, 2015

On Dec. 21, 2012, drying off from Hurricane Sandy, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34.15 % from 12/21/12 to 1/21/15 The S&P 500 is up […]

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