Category Archives: Connecting the Dots

Risk Mis-Management From Napoleon in Russia to COVID-19

Napoleon in Russia

On June 24, 1812 Napoleon led his Grand Army, 500,000 strong, across the Neman River into Russia. His goal was to persuade Tzar Alexander I not to trade with Great Britain. The Russian Army retreated before Napoleon’s, leaving a trail of burning farm fields. Napoleon made it to Moscow by mid-September, where he “captured” a deserted and burning city. Napoleon and his army camped out in the smoldering ruins for a month waiting the Tzar to sue for peace. But Alexander never did. Napoleon left Moscow on October 19, 1812, following the Russian army, with the Russian winter closing in. Napoleon’s army encountered the Russian army in the Battle of Maloyaroslavets. The battle was militarily inconclusive, but Napoleon’s army, starving and freezing, began its retreat back to Paris. In its retreat Napoleon’s army withstood attacks by the Russian army, Cossacks, and “peasants.” 

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Energy Portfolios: 5 Years: Sustainable Energy Up 130.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 17.4%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading five (5) years later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 148.6%, from $39.58 Billion to $98.4 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 3.8%, from $1.09 Trillion to $1.05 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies is DOWN 2.6%,from $1.03 Trillion on 9/21/17 to $1.007 Trillion on 10/20/17. (See Table 8, below).

In addition, 

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $6.61 Million, down 17.4% overall, down 3.48% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $18.5 Million, up 130.6%, overall and 26.1% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 89.3% overall and 17.86% on an annualized basis; from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 24,782 on 12/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 87.8% overall and 16.63% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,685 on 12/21/17.

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Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 108.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24.3%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

In recent months the Sustainable Energy portfolio has dropped and the Fossil Fuel portfolio has increased. However, this may prove to be a short term correction that has more to do with macro-geopolitical events emanating from Washington, DC than global macroeconomic factors.    

As of the close of trading 59 months later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 148.6%, from $39.58 Billion to $98.4 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 3.8%, from $1.09 Trillion to $1.05 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies is DOWN 2.6%,from $1.03 Trillion on 9/21/17 to $1.007 Trillion on 10/20/17. (See Table 8, below)

In Addition

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $6.06 Million, down 24.3% overall, down 4.94% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $16.7 Million, up 108.6%, overall and 22.1% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 80.2% overall and 16.31% on an annualized basis; from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 23,591 on 11/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 81.8% overall and 16.63% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,599 on 11/21/17.

The details are below.

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Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 147.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 23.0%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading 58 months later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 153.1%, from $39.58 Billion to $100.2 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 2.4%, from $1.099 Trillion to $1.06 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies is DOWN 12.25%,from $1.03 Trillion on 9/21/17 to $1.02 Trillion on 10/20/17. (See Table 8, below)

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Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 153.9%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 26.93%

 

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading 57 months later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 145.3%, from $39.58 Billion to $97.07 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 5.5%, from $1.099 Trillion to $1.029 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies, PB, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco Philips and Shell, is down 11.84%, from $1.034 Trillion on 12/21/12 to $987.8 Billion on 9/21/17. (See Table 8, below).

As of the close of trading on September 21, 2017:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.85 Million, down 26.93% overall, down 5.77% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $20.32 Million, up 153.94%, overall and 32.99% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 65.8% overall and 13.85% on an annualized basis; from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 21,704 on 9/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 69.8% overall and 14.69% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,428 on 9/21/17.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio includes First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company, Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space and GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which in Dec. 2012 made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the now bankrupt coal company, Peabody Coal, and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 20,315,038 12,315,038 153.94% 32.41%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,845,911 -2,154,089 -26.93% -5.67%
DJI 13,091 21,704 8,613 65.79% 13.85%
S&P 500 1,430 2,428 998 69.79% 14.69%
NASDAQ 3,012 5,251 2,239 74.34% 15.65%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 24.6 -9.37 -27.56%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 48.8 17.76 57.29%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.0 -2.98 -99.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.0 -0.73 -97.19%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 146.8 76.78 109.69%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 7.4 1.94 35.73%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.2 -6.19 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 90.1 83.74 1327.10%
  Note that GTATno longer exists
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 37.7 -4.42 -10.49%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 116.5 6.76 6.16%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 48.7 -9.91 -16.91%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 79.9 -7.34 -8.41%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 59.0 -10.28 -14.84%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 37.9 3.19 9.19%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 9.1 -36.56 -80.11%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 395.3 0.0 -395.25 -100.00%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
      Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 724 -276 -27.56%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 1,573 573 57.29%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 7 -993 -99.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 28 -972 -97.19%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 2,097 1,097 109.69%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 1,357 357 35.73%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 258 -742 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 14,271 13,271 1327.10%
  total   8,000 20,315 12,315 153.94%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
      Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/17 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 895 -105 -10.49%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 1,062 62 6.16%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 831 -169 -16.91%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 916 -84 -8.41%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 852 -148 -14.84%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,092 92 9.19%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 199 -801 -80.11%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 0 -1000 -100.00%
  total   8,000 5,846 -2154 -26.93%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree 3.90 2.41 -1.49 -38.21%
2 First Solar 2.69 5.09 2.4 89.22%
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00 -0.35 -98.88%
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00 -0.15 -100.00%
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 68.87 39.27 132.67%
6 Sun Power 0.88 1.03 0.15 17.33%
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.18 -0.34 -64.72%
8 Vestas 1.48 19.48 18 1216.22%
  total 39.58 97.07 57.49 145.26%
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 124.11 -9.69 -7.24%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 220.71 6.01 2.80%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 59.26 -11.94 -16.77%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 338.50 -59.2 -14.89%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 245.19 28.39 13.10%
6 Haliburton 32.2 37.90 5.7 17.70%
7 Transocean 16.4 3.55 -12.85 -78.35%
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.00 -6.37 -100.00%
  total 1089.2 1029.22 -59.95 -5.50%
Table 7

The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.

Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 124.1 -9.69 -7.24%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 220.7 6.01 2.80%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 59.3 -11.94 -16.77%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 338.5 -59.2 -14.89%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 245.2 28.39 13.10%
  total 1034.2 987.8 -46.43 -4.49%
Table 8

 

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Posts in this series:

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But … 
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%
  44. L. Furman, 1/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy UP 135.6%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 42.8%.
  45. L. Furman, 2/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139.5%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 40.7%.
  46. L. Furman, 3/24/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 159.7%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.2%.
  47. L. Furman, 4/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  48. L. Furman, 5/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 5 Months, Sustainable Energy Up 122%, Fossil Fuels Down 30%.
  49. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  50. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 26%.
  51. L. Furman, 8/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 138%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 27%.
  52. L. Furman, 9/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy up 133.5%, Fossil Fuels Down 31%.
  53. L. Furman, 10/23/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 10 Months: Sustainable Energy up 130%, Fossil Fuels Down 26%
  54. L. Furman, 11/25/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 11 Months: Sustainable Energy up 93%, Fossil Fuels Down 20%
  55. L. Furman, 1/1/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years: Sustainable Energy up 130%, Fossil Fuels Down 26%
  56. L. Furman, 1/23/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy Effectively Doubled, Fossil Fuels Down 18.3%.
  57. L. Furman, 3/5/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 117.25%, Fossil Fuel Down 33.99%
  58. L. Furman, 4/23/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy up 120.9%, Fossil Fuel Down 25.05%
  59. L. Furman, 4/23/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 126.7%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 26.9%
  60. L. Furman, 5/26/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 5 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 148.4%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24.9%
  61. L. Furman, 6/25/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 148.4%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24.9%
  62. L. Furman, 7/22/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 170.8%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.3%
  63. L. Furman, 9/24/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 170.8%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.3%
  64. L. Furman, 9/25/17, Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 153.94%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 26.93%

–

A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College and a Bachelor’s of Science in Biology from the City University of New York  College of Staten Island. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

 

Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 170.8%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.3%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $1.0 Million into each of eight sustainable energy companies and $1.0 Million into each of eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of various companies, as of the close of trading 55 months later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 140.6%, from $39.58 Billion to $99.2 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 11.99%, from $1.09 Trillion to $968.6 Billion. (See Tables 7 & 8, below).

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Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 120.9%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 25.1%

Portfolios1704_html_4f901e3

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading on March 21, 2017:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.995 Million, down 25.05% overall, down 5.9% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $17.7 Million, up 120.9%, overall and 28.43% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 58.45% overall and 13.75% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 20,743 on 3/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 65.38% overall and 15.38% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,365 on 3/21/17.

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Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 117.25%, Fossil Fuel Down 33.99%

PLPort_html_951db1c

As of the close of trading on February 21, 2016:

  • The hypothetical value of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is down 33.99% overall, from $8.0 Million to $5.28 Million. This is a collapse of -8.16% on an annualized basis.
  • The aggregate Market Captalization of the companies in the Fossil Fuel portfolio, as of the close of trading on March 3, 2017, dropped 8.68%, from $1.089 Trillion to $994.6 Billion.
  • The hypothetical value of the  Sustainable Energy portfolio has more than doubled since Dec. 2012. Up 117.25% overall and 28.14% on an annualized basis, from $8 Million to $17.38 Million.
  • The aggregate Market Capitalization of these companies, as of the close of trading on 3/3/17, increased 114.46%, from $39.58 Billion to $84.88 Billion
  • As of the close of trading on March 3, 2017, the Market Capitalization of the companies in the Sustainable Energy portfolio increased 114.46% from $39.58 Billion to $84.88 Billion.

In Comparison:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 58.45% overall and 14.03% on an annualized basis from 13.091 on Dec. 21, 2012 to 20,743 on Feb. 21, 2017.
  • The S&P 500 is up 58.45% overall and 15.69% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 to 2,365.
  • The NASDAQ is up 94.17% overall and 22.60% on an annualized basis, from 3,021 to 5,866.

Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy Doubled, Fossil Fuel Down 18%

Port.1701_html_m4ee8b1d2

Back in December, 2012 I started this experiment in sustainable investing. I took $16 million imaginary dollars and invested them, in imaginary $1.0 Million chunks, in 8 sustainable energy companies and 8 fossil fuel companies. The results are:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is down 18.29% overall, from $8.0 Million to $6.54 Million. This is a collapse of -4.48% on an annualized basis. However, please note that my model does not account for dividends.
  • The Market Capitalization of the five big oil companies of the Fossil Fuel portfolio has decreased by 4.95%
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio has essentially doubled in stock price since Dec. 2012. Up 98.98% overall and 24.24% on an annualized basis, from $8 Million to $15.92 Million.
  • The Market Capitalization of the Sustainable Energy portfolio has increased by 87.21% in this period.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51.43% overall and 12.60% on an annualized basis from 13.091 on Dec. 21, 2012 to 19,824 on Jan. 20, 2017.
  • The S&P 500 is up 57.97% overall and 14.20% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 to 2,259.
  • The NASDAQ is up 74.54% overall and 18.20% on an annualized basis, from 3,021 to 5,251.

Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios 4 Years: Sustainable Energy Up 87%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%

pop-log-port-4-yrs

As of the close of trading on December 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is up to a point where it is only down 18% overall, from $8.0 Million to $6.56 Million. This is a collapse of -4.5% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 86.75% overall and 21.69% on an annualized basis, from $8 Million to $14.94 Million.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.33% overall and 13.1% on an annualized basis from 13.091 on Dec. 21, 2012 to 19,942 on Dec. 21, 2016.
  • The S&P 500 is up 58.38% overall and 14.6% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 to 2,265.
  • The NASDAQ is up 74.54% overall and 18.6% on an annualized basis, from 3,021 to 5,257.

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3 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 134%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 31%

plp-1609

On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; eight Sustainable Energy companies and eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on September 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.52 Million, down 31.05% overall, down 8.3% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $18.7 Million, up 133.5% overall and 35.6% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 18,294, up 39.7%, overall and 10.6% on an annualized basis
  • The S&P 500 went from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,165, up 51.3% overall and 13.7% on an annualized basis.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 18,681,471 10,681,471 133.52% 35.60%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,515,027 -2,484,973 -31.06% -8.28%
DJI 13,091 18,294 5,203 39.74% 10.60%
S&P 500 1,430 2,163 733 51.26% 13.67%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 24.6 -9.42 -27.71%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 34.1 3.07 9.90%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.0 -2.98 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.67 -89.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 127.8 57.84 82.63%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 8.1 2.62 48.25%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.2 -6.19 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 83.2 76.85 1217.91%
Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 33.6 -8.51 -20.20%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 99.6 -10.08 -9.19%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 40.1 -18.54 -31.64%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 83.3 -3.93 -4.51%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 48.0 -21.30 -30.74%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 42.7 8.02 23.11%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 9.1 -36.51 -80.00%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 395.3 1.6 -393.67 -99.60%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 723 -277 -27.71%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 1,099 99 9.90%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 7 -993 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 107 -893 -89.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,826 826 82.63%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 1,483 483 48.25%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 258 -742 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 13,179 12,179 1217.91%
total 8,000 18,681 10,681 133.52%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 798 -202 -20.20%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 908 -92 -9.19%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 684 -316 -31.64%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 955 -45 -4.51%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 693 -307 -30.74%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,231 231 23.11%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 200 -800 -80.00%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 4 -996 -99.59%
total 8,000 5,472 -2528 -31.60%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree 3.90 2.54 -1.36 -34.87%
2 First Solar 2.69 3.52 0.83 30.86%
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00 -0.353 -98.88%
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00 -0.153 -100.00%
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 60.67 31.07 104.97%
6 Sun Power 0.88 1.13 0.2521 28.72%
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.18 -0.3357 -64.72%
8 Vestas 1.48 18.42 16.94 1144.59%
total 39.58 86.467 46.8904 118.48%
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 108.75 -25.05 -18.72%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 192.42 -22.28 -10.38%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 52.04 -19.16 -26.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 349.48 -48.22 -12.12%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 204.67 -12.13 -5.60%
6 Haliburton 32.2 38.22 6.02 18.70%
7 Transocean 16.4 3.61 -12.79 -77.99%
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.03 -6.342 -99.56%
total 1089.2 949.22 -139.952 -12.85%
Table 7

The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.

Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 108.8 -25.05 -18.72%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 192.4 -22.28 -10.38%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 52.0 -19.16 -26.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 349.5 -48.22 -12.12%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 204.7 -12.13 -5.60%
total 1034.2 907.4 -126.84 -12.26%
Table 8

–

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But … 
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%
  44. L. Furman, 1/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy UP 135.6%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 42.8%.
  45. L. Furman, 2/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139.5%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 40.7%.
  46. L. Furman, 3/24/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 159.7%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.2%.
  47. L. Furman, 4/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  48. L. Furman, 5/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 5 Months, Sustainable Energy Up 122%, Fossil Fuels Down 30%.
  49. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  50. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 26%.
  51. L. Furman, 8/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 138%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 27%.
  52. L. Furman, 9/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 9 Months, Sustainable Energy up 133.5%, Fossil Fuels Down 31%.

–

A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

3 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%

PLPort.1608

On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; eight Sustainable Energy companies and eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space and a coal company, at the close of trading on August 19, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.85 Million, down 25.85% overall, down 7.3% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $19.1 Million, up 138.414%, overall and 37.75% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 41.72% overall and 11.38% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 18,553 on 8/21/16.
  • The S&P 500 is up 52.73% overall and 14.38% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,165 on 8/21/16.

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Energy Portfolios: 3 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125.2%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 25.98%

PLPort.1607 On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; eight Sustainable Energy companies and eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on July 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.94 Million, down 25.63% overall, down 7.2% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $17.98 Million, up 124.764%, overall and 34.8% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 41.45% overall and 11.57% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 18,517 on 7/21/16.
  • The S&P 500 is up 51.4% overall and 14.3% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,165 on 7/21/16.

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Energy Portfolios: 3 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125.2%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 25.98%

PLPort.1606

On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; $1.0 M in each company in each of eight companies in the Sustainable Energy space and $1.0 M each of eight companies in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of various companies in the sustainable energy space and coal industry.

As of the close of trading on June 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.92 Million, down 25.98% overall, and 7.4% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $18.019 Million, up 125.24%, overall and 35.8% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.2% overall and 10.3% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 17,501 on 6/21/16.
  • The S&P 500 is up 446.08% overall and 13.2% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2089 on 6/21/16.

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The Spectacular Failure of the Kemper Coal Carbon Sequestration Plant

Kemper.Ariel

Kemper Coal & Natural Gas Facility, photo courtesy Mississippi Power Co.

The Kemper coal and natural gas facility is a 582 MW electric power plant that was supposed to cost $2.2 Billion and open in May, 2014. It hasn’t opened yet, and is now projected to cost $6.6 Billion, triple the original budget. According to Power Mag, here,

The most recent filing pushes the bill to $6.66 billion. The plant was originally estimated to cost $2.2 billion in 2004, but costs began spiraling out of control almost immediately, especially once construction began in 2010 and the company discovered that many of the original designs needed major changes. Those problems appear to be continuing, as Mississippi Power said the April 1 update is “related to operational readiness and challenges in start-up and commissioning activities which includes the cost of repairs and modification to the refractory lining inside the gasifiers.”

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