Category Archives: Disasters

We like Craig Fugate’s definition of a disaster: an emergency in which the injured or at-risk outnuimber emergency personnel.

The Celestial Shooting Gallery, Part Four: “You Have Nothing to Worry About (click) Worry About (click) Worry About (click)…”

Stability Model of an experimental distribution grid

A stability map of a simple power grid. Each point on this image represents an operating state of a simple power grid consisting of a few generators. Bluish regions constitute stable working states, red unstable and ‘salt-and-pepper’ represent chaotic behavior. One can tune a grid for stability by controlling the phasing of generators and transformers on the grid and such settings suffice for day-to-day operations. It is difficult to decide where, or by how much, abnormalities such as geomagnetic storms might push a system into red, unstable regions, or, worse, salt-and-pepper regions where the system oscillates between states. It is easy to find cases on the map where chaotic regions lie very close to stable regions, indicating that the destabilizing push need not be large at all. James Thorp, Cornell University, published in IEEE Spectrum

People paid to worry about the North American power grid regard geomagnetic storms as “high impact, low-frequency” events, spawning the inevitable acronym: HILF. Low frequency, in that a geomagnetic storm as intense as May 1921, at 5,000 nano-Teslas/minute, or the 1859 Carrington Event, best guess: 7,500 nano-Teslas/minute, might not happen in our lifetimes, the lifetimes of our children, or even our grand children. If signature traces in Arctic ice core samples are correct, these are ‘500 year events.’ When it comes to deciding where to put that preventative maintenance dollar, storm-proofing Oklahoma elementary schools against EF 5 tornadoes seems a far more practical spend than the hardening of electrical grids against a half-theoretical event that might not even happen in 500 years.

What pulls planners up short is the high impact part: the utter god-awfulness of a power grid that crashes and which then can’t boot itself up. There is a self-referential dependency: fixing a dysfunctional power grid requires it to be functional, as key aspects of the manufacturing of transformers need electricity.

Nor can one expect the cavalry to ride in anytime soon, as the vast geographic reach of geomagnetic storms means that one strong enough to take down the North American grid may very likely take down Eurasian grids as well – entire hemispheres could wind up in the toilet, and we only have two hemispheres. That and the statistical variableness to it all: the Carrington 1859 and May 1921 storms, nominally two ‘500 year events’ were, in fact, separated by only sixty-two years.

Where does the buck stop? Continue reading

Celestial Shooting Gallery, Part Three: When a CME Hits the Atmosphere

Failed GSU transformer at Salem River, NJ

A Generator Step Up (GSU) transformer failed at the Salem River Nuclear Plant during the March 1989 geomagnetic storm. The unit is depicted on the left; some of the burned 22kV primary windings are shown on the right. Though immersed in cooling oil, the windings became hot enough to melt copper, at about 2000 degrees F. John Kappenman, Metatech

Coronal Mass Ejections are mainly charged particles, protons and electrons. When a CME arrives at Earth, the charged protons and electrons come under the influence of the Earth’s own magnetic field, the magnetosphere. Charged particles spin around the lines of magnetic force that comprise the magnetosphere, which diverts most of CME harmlessly around the planet, keeping Earth’s surface tranquil.

If the ejection is large enough, however, it can distort the shape of the magnetosphere, occasionally causing magnetic flux lines to snap and reconnect. When this happens, charged particles leak in and follow the magnetosphere’s flux lines down to the Earth’s ionosphere. There, they strike oxygen and nitrogen molecules and strip them of electrons. These ionized gases glow, giving rise to the ethereal beauty of the auroras around the north and south poles. Unfortunately, these excess charged particles also produce immense electrojets.

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Celestial Shooting Gallery, Part Two: The Physics of Geomagnetic Storms

goddard_cme_earth

On August 31, 2012 a long filament of solar material that had been hovering in the sun’s atmosphere, the corona, erupted out into space at 4:36 p.m. EDT. The coronal mass ejection, or CME, traveled at over 900 miles per second. The CME did not travel directly toward Earth, but did connect with Earth’s magnetic environment, or magnetosphere, causing aurora to appear on the night of Monday, September 3. The image above includes an image of Earth to show the size of the CME compared to the size of Earth. NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center

Thursday, May 2nd, 2013, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled nearly one billion tons of charged particles from the sun’s corona at an outward velocity of one million miles per hour – 270 miles per second.

In less than a half hour, 2,700 virtual Empire State Buildings, 340,000 tons apiece – give or take a few gorillas – erupted from an active region of the Sun’s surface called AR1748, a northern latitude sunspot. AR1748 had just become visible on the western limb of the Sun’s surface when it ejected this mass, so the vast bulk of it hurled outward, not toward us in Libra, but more or less toward Cancer, at right-angles to us. In practical terms, it shot wide of its mark. Still an impressive shot. The CME had been triggered by an M class solar flare, the second largest in a five step scheme (An, Bn, Cn, Mn, Xn; for n a relative magnitude). It had been the largest coronal mass ejection observed thus far in 2013.

And it was still early in the day for AR1748.

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Celestial Shooting Gallery, Part One: The Day We Lost Quebec

Electrojets over N. America

John Kappenman reconstructed the electrojets which formed in the ionosphere late in the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic storm which compromised the Hydro-Quebec power grid in Canada. Concurrently, the eastward jet induced ground currents that severely strained the electrical distribution grid of northern continental United States, resulting in a transformer failure at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant, in New Jersey. Courtesy of Metatech

Nearly a quarter century ago, on March 13, 1989,  a geomagnetic storm led to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec electrical grid system, which furnishes power to much of the province of Quebec, Canada. So pervasive were abnormal currents, that protective circuit breakers tripped throughout the system, bringing the entire grid to a halt in about one and a half minutes. The grid’s self-protective systems were geared toward local abnormalities happening in particular places. In contrast, ground induced currents created abnormalities everywhere. The good news was that most of the hardware protected itself. The bad news was that six million customers were without power for as long as nine hours, and where transformer damage did occur, outages continued for another week.

Further south, the United States experienced a close shave. A second surge in the March 13 storm generated similar ground induced currents in the northern United States, with large current spikes observed from the Pacific Northwest to the mid-Atlantic states, one spike destroying a large GSU transformer at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey. According to John Kappenman, of the Metatech Corporation “It was probably at this time that we came uncomfortably close to triggering a blackout that could have literally extended clear across the country.”

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Fuel Barges Explode – 3 Injured

Image of fuel barges on fire.

Fuel Barge Fire, Mobile Alabama, 4/24/13

As reported by Ed Payne, CNN, here, At least six explosions rocked two fuel barges carrying gasoline as they were docked on the Mobile River, in Mobile Alabama. All people are believed to be accounted for.Three people were taken to the USA Medical Center with burns. They remain in critical condition. The barges were being prepped for reload. The fires were monitored from a distance.

I wonder if authorities in Alabama chose to monitor the fires from a safe distance rather than risk the lives of emergency responders. Perhaps mindful of the 10 to 16 first responders killed in the fire and explosion at the West, Texas fertilizer plant last week (my coverage is here).

Thinking long term, we should be developing an efficient and sustainable energy infrastructure with fuel from kitchen waste, farm waste, and sewage.

If the Nega-Watt is the Least Expensive, Cleanest and Most Valuable unit of energy, and the Nega-Fuel-Watt is the 2nd Least Expensive, 2nd cleanest and 2nd Most Valuable, then the “Fuel-From-Waste-Watt” is the 3rd Least Expensive, 3rd Cleanest and 3rd Most Valuable unit of energy.

A candidate for General Assembly to represent NJ Legislative District 12, and an analyst with Popular Logistics, Lawrence J. Furman holds a Bachelor’s in Biology, and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, Vermont. He also has experience in information technology. He can be reached at ‘Larry” at Furman For New Jersey. com

35 Dead in Fire and Explosion at Texas Fertilizer Warehouse. Others Missing.

West Fertilizer Explosion. Courtesy Mother Jones.

West Fertilizer Explosion. Courtesy Mother Jones.

West, Texas. April 18, 2013. An explosion during a fire at a fertilizer plant in West, Texas killed 35, including at least 10 firefighters and EMS responders. At this time, 6 other EMS responders are missing. If not found alive, and the outlook appears grim, the death toll will jump to 41, including at least 16 First Responders. This is a devastating loss of first responders in a community of 2600 and a tragic loss to the families and friends of those killed. 160 people were injured, according to CNN, here.

Detail of the Explosion, Courtesy NY Daily News

Detail of the Explosion

This news clip, from CBS, reports, “The explosion, with the force of a small earthquake, was felt 15 miles away. The blast knocked out windows half-a-mile away.”

Cloud from explosion at Texas fertilizer plant.

Cloud from explosion at Texas fertilizer plant.

West Fertilizer Company may have been negligent – that’s for the courts to decide.Ricardo Lopez, writing in the LA Times, reported, “West Fertilizer Co. paid $5,250 last year to the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, PHMSA, over violations discovered in 2011.”   CBS also reported that the last EPA inspection was 1985 and that West Fertilizer Co was fined in 2006 for failure to implement a disaster plan.

The Houston Chronicle, reported, here, that

  • West Fertilizer was cited in 2006 for lacking a permit,
  • An intermediate school near the plant has been evacuated “more than once” due to fumes and pollution from the plant,
  • The plant had not been inspected by Occupational Health and Safety Administration, OSHA in more than 10 years,
  • West Fertilizer, incorporated in Texas in May 2004, did not get its state air pollution permit until 2007 after a complaint was filed about foul odors from the facility.

The Chronicle, also reported, here, that Donald Adair, the owner of Adair Grain and West Fertilizer, issued a statement Friday afternoon expressing sympathy,

My heart is broken with grief for the tragic losses to so many families in our community. I know that everyone has been deeply affected by this incident. Loved ones have been injured or killed. Homes have been damaged or destroyed. Our hearts go out to everyone who has suffered.

I was devastated to learn that we lost one of our employees in the explosion. He bravely responded to the fire at the facility as a volunteer firefighter. I will never forget his bravery and his sacrifice, or that of his colleagues who rushed to the trouble.

The citizens of Texas and of the United States need to decide if the regulatory regimes are inadequate. Government safety regulations are like government regulations prohibiting drunk driving. Drunk drivers don’t mean to do any harm, they just want to get home after having a good time. Remember that canonical accounting rule: “Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity.” Business owners want to make money selling valuable products, and just want to add a few dollars to “Owners’ Equity” perhaps by subtracting a few dollars from the category of “Safety & Emergency Preparedness” in the “Liabilities,” column.

Final questions:

If fertilizer is so explosive why is it good to use on our lawns and use it to grow our food? What alternatives are available?

Mr. Adair sounds like an alcoholic who has just learned that he has killed someone after driving while intoxicated and crashing into another car. If we prosecute drunk drivers for killing by accident while under the influence, or creating what Justice Holmes called “A clear and present danger,” shouldn’t we prosecute owners of corporations for killing by accident, or creating a clear and present danger, especially when, as appears to be the case here, there is a pattern of disregard for regulation?

The staff, budgets, and authority of regulatory and enforcement agencies such as PHMSA, OSHA, and the EPA have been cut under the administrations of President George W. Bush and by the House of Representatives under the leadership of John Boehner. Should we continue to cut the staff and budgets of PHMSAOSHAEPA and other regulatory and enforcement agencies or should we rethink our approach to law enforcement and regulation?

Exxon Manages No-Fly Zone Over Arkansas Oil Spill

No Fly Zone over Mayflower, Arkansas

No Fly Zone over Mayflower, Arkansas

An Exxon pipe leaked, flooding 500,000 gallons of crude oil onto Mayflower, Arkansas. Exxon is in charge of a No Fly Zone in the vicinity of the spill.

  1. Do independent observers who want to witness the tar sands spill disaster have to ask Exxon’s permission?
  2. Why Is Exxon Controlling the No-Fly Zone Over Arkansas Tar Sands Spill?
  3. Because it wants to? Because it can?

Because … the FAA put an Exxon employee in charge of a  no-fly zone over Exxon’s latest oil spill.

Contact the FAA at (866) 835-5322 and the White House  at (202) 456-1111 to ask Why is an oil company managing a no-fly-zone over an oil spill it caused? Why is a publicly traded for-profit oil company that caused an oil spill managing air traffic in the vicinity of the oil spill?

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Reuters: “First spill trial witness: BP put cost cuts over safety”

The oil slick in the gulf

Deepwater Horizon Oil Slick, May 10, 2010.

From Reuters reporting on the BP oil spill trial;  First spill trial witness: BP put cost cuts over safety.

BP Plc fostered a culture that put cost-cutting over safety before the deadly 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, a noted forensic engineer said in the first day of testimony in the federal civil trial centered on the disaster. “There is ample evidence of intense pressure within the system to save time and money,” said Bob Bea, co-founder of the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management at the University of California, Berkeley. “With stress and pressure come sacrifices to safety.” Bea was the first witness for the plaintiffs, the U.S. Justice Department and U.S. Gulf Coast states suing Macondo well owner BP, rig owner Transocean Ltd and well cement provider Halliburton Co. The plaintiffs plan to call Lamar McKay, chairman and president of BP America, to testify as a hostile witness once Bea wraps up. McKay is a member of the London-based oil company’s executive committee, alongside Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley.

Bear in mind that this was filed after the first day of a long trial. (We think we found access to transcripts at MDL 2179 Trial Docs and Plaintiffs Steering Committee, and provide better daily coverage). It’s likely that things will look worse for BP before they look better.  Of course, there is the possibility that BP, in cross-examining witnesses, and putting on its own case, will be able to demonstrate that that its conduct was entirely proper and honorable.

And also bear in mind that oil gushed into the Gulf of Mexico at the rate of 60,000 barrels per day for 85 days; an approximate total of 5,100,000 barrels of crude oil.

Jonathan Soroko, Esq, is an attorney and an investigative consultant. In addition to writing for Popular Logistics, he writes for Caton Ave and Discovery Strategist blog, where this is posted.

Popular Logistics Series on the Deepwater Horizon / Macondo Spill

  1. Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, May 3, 2010.
  2. Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, May 7, 2010.
  3. The Magnitude of the Spill, May 15, 2010.
  4. One Month After The Spill BP Siphoning 3,000 Barrels Per Day, May 20, 2010.
  5. Deep Water Horizon – The Chernobyl of Deepwater Drilling?, June 2, 2010.
  6. The Deepwater Horizon: 40,000 Barrels Per Day or 70,000, June 13, 2010.
  7. The Deepwater Horizon After the Macondo Well Explosion, June 19, 2010.
  8. Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes, July 1, 2010,
  9. Like a Bad High School Math Problem, July 14, 2010,
  10. Crisis Management and the Gulf Oil Spill, July 16, 2010,
  11. The Deepwater Horizon: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, October 7, 2010.

Forget the Great Wall – Meet The Great Haze

Beijing from space, courtesy NASA

Image 1. Beijing from space, Jan., 2013, courtesy NASA

忘了长城 – 我们现在有大的雾度

“Forget the Great Wall – We Now Have the Great Haze”

– Translation by Google

In the 1960’s and 1970’s astronauts showed that we could see the Great Wall of China from space. Today, it’s the Great Haze of China that we can see from space .  The New York Daily News, here, published this image, taken by NASA in January 12, 2013 (here) when the Air Quality Index, AQI, reached 775.

The AQI was established by the US EPA. AQI above 300 is considered dangerous. AQI at 775 is probably deadly.

Continue reading

Justice Scalia on the Second Amendment

US Supreme Court Justice Antonin ScaliaJustice Antonin Scalia, interviewed on Fox News, talking about the July 20, 2012, massacre Aurora, Colorado, said,

Obviously the amendment does not apply to arms that cannot be hand carried. It’s to ‘keep and bear’ so it doesn’t apply to cannons but I suppose there are hand-held rocket launchers that can bring down airplanes that will have to be decided…. My starting point and probably my ending point will be what limitations are within the understood limitations that society had at the time.

The segment can be watched here, on YouTube. Continue reading

Gulf Oil Emergency Phone Numbers.

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
* Medical support hotline:  (888) 623-0287