I'm beginning to think that Copenhagen was what it had to be, what it could only be. It fulfilled its Buddha-nature. Thus, I don't consider it a failure. Nor do I consider it a success. It was what it was, what it could have been, what it had to be:

A gathering of emissaries from the 64 corners of the earth.

Earth From Space, Copyright NASA

Isaac Asimov observed in Foundation (ISBN: 978-0553293357) that "diplomacy, is the art of speaking for a long time without saying anything." Most of the diplomats in Copenhagen had multiple agendas. Unfortunately for billions of the world's poorest, the public agendas of sustainability and the abstract "Gaia Hypothesis" were distant fourth and fifth behind the private agendas of power, money, and influence.

The inconvenient truth is that much of Bangla Desh, California, Louisiana, Southern Florida will disappear, submerged, like the mythical Atlantis. China will continue to build 2 coal plants per week. And people will die.

But disregarding this notion, a Chinese diplomat said, “You're having dinner, you've invited us to dessert, and you expect us to pay the entire bill." As I've said elsewhere, (click) this metaphor is not apt. It's more realistic to say "We're in in an opium den. We're stoned out of our minds. We're one toke from a fatal overdose. And China is banging on the door trying to get in while there's some dope left to smoke - and they want to mainline it into the carotid artery." The Marxist East is as materialistic as the Capitalist West.  Marx, after all, argued against Capitalism, not Materialism.

China demonstrated this with acquisition of the Hummer brand by Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery (CNN Money / NY Times).  India, with purchase of Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors, is focused on proving their power to England: Oedipus writ large. India has embraced colonialism. Like the US and Canada, they have shaken off the shackles of colonial subjugation. However, they have embraced their colonial past, and embraced the culture of Empire. Their role now, and China's: to lend us money so we can buy their shoddy merchandise.

And their role in Copenhagen: To prevent agreement.

Monty Python. Stock Photo

And now, as Monty Python used to say, "for something, completely different." Consider the East Anglia College e-mail security breach. Elizabeth May, Leader of Canada's Green Party did (click here) noted that the break-in and consequent publication and distribution of private emails occurred immediately prior to the Copenhagen conference, the hue and cry was about a quote taken out of context, misrepresenting a discussion on how to present the data. What was lost in this was, the fact that an email server was hacked. "Who," she asked, "broke into the computer? Who paid the perpetrator? Who benefits from the crimes?"

What does this mean for you and me, for the nascent sustainability community? For students in the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics at UVM (click), The Marlboro College MBA in Managing for Sustainability (click), the Presidio MBA in Sustainable Management (click), The Fowler Center for Sustainability at Case Western Reserve (click)?

The obvious answer is "it is not just some Americans who have their heads in the sand, but the Chinese and the Indians as well. The science is in (click here and here). People in New Delhi, Beijing, and Washington are fiddling while Rome - and the rest of the world - is burning. We have our work cut out for us."

Stay tuned.

Earlier today one of my friends handed me a copy of some satire published in the New York Post, a tabloid in the tradition of the London rags, on the subject of "Climate-Gate."  At about the same time, Roger Saillant, co-author of Vapor Trails, who heads the Fowler Center for Sustainable Value at Case Western Reserve University pointed me to Elizabeth May's post on the hacked computers and stolen e-mails at East Anglia University. Ms. May leads Canada's Green Party.

Patrick Michaels, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which is really a public relations arm of Exxon Mobil, was once a scientist at the University of Virginia.  He is famous for giving testimony attacking Dr. James Hansen to the U.S. Senate. However, when interviewed by Elizabeth May on Canada's CBC Sunday Morning’s “Kyoto on Trial” in 2002, Michaels admitted to redrawing Hansen’s graph to make it wrong. Michaels, who has traded the scientific method for Stanislavsky's acting method, admitted to perjury in his testimony before the United States Senate.

The graph shows the amount of sea ice from July thru November from 1979 to 2000, then in 2005, 7, 8, and July thru Sept., 2009. It is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder Colorado (here) published Oct. 6, 2009. The dark gray line shows Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2000. The gray band shows 2 standard deviations from the mean. The colorful lines show that Arctic sea ice is at or well below two standard deviations from the mean levels of 1979 to 2000.  Clearly there is less ice in the Arctic then there used to be.

I can say "You can question climate change at your own peril." And you can say "Larry Furman, on Popular Logistics, says "you can question climate change." Phil Jones, at East Anglica, said "when I wrote, in 1999, that  'we can use Mike's trick in presenting the data,' I used the word 'trick' in a colloquial manner." He meant Mike has this neat technique, I wish I thought of it." Not "we will use this sleight of hand to fool the rubes."

There are a few truths that, to use Al Gore's term, are inconvenient.

About 120 years ago, Svante Arrhenius, the Swedish scientist, observed that dramatically increasing Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere could effect the climate. He thought a warmer world would be a good thing - a longer summer in Sweden would yield a longer growing season and other benefits.

Back then, circa 1890, the world's human population stood at about 1.5 billion. Today it stands at about 6.7 billion. The concentration of carbon dioxide is estimated to have been 285 parts per million before industrialization and the widespread use of fossil fuels. Today it fluctuates around 385 ppm.  It is highest in April / May and lowest in Sept. / Oct. The annual variation has to do with carbon dioxide sequestered in green plants during the spring and summer.

You could argue that 385 parts per million is not a lot of stuff. But if 285 is "normal" and you quickly increase the concentration by 35% something is going to happen. A resilient system, and big complex systems tend to be resilient, might absorb the dose. If the dose quickly drops back to normal, there might be some scarring, and a quick recovery. Think of someone who eats bad food, gets sick, throws up, feels better. Or a beach that gets hit by a storm.

Suppose you have three drinks. Your blood alcohol level is 0.06 - under the limit for mandatory DUI conviction. Then you have a fourth drink. Your blood alcohol level is now 0.081. You are, as Sarah Palin might say, "Drilled, baby drilled."

But here's the thing. Forget climate, forget icebergs polar bears, and glaciers. Think national security and the economy. Don't think oil or fossil fuel, think "magic rocks" and "magic gel." We buy oil - magic gel - from the Persian Gulf, Niger, Venezuela, and Canada. The Canadians are our friends. Those other guys, I don't know about you, but they don't like my people (and the feelings are mutual).  As far as the magic rocks, we have them here, but burning them produces a lot of toxic dirt - toxics that spoil food and kill fish in lakes. It seems to be cheap, but when you factor in the costs of cleaning up the mess it's very expensive.  Still, we need that stuff. Our whole system is built on burning these magic rocks and magic gel. And when we burn them we push carbon dioxide, water vapor, mercury, arsenic, radionucleotides, and other stuff into the air we breath, the water we drink and food we eat.

So what do we do? Well, a military occupation of one of those countries that has a lot of the magic gel might be a good idea, especially if the ruler is an unpopular tyrant who kills his own people. But wouldn't it be better if we used "magic modules" that converted sunlight into electricity? And "magic turbines" that could harness the power of the winds and marine currents? And use the heat of the earth to warm and cool our buildings?

We can.

We will.

Maybe not tomorrow, maybe 5 or 10 or 50 years from now. Maybe we need see a few more hurricanes like Katrina. Maybe we need to lose southern Florida and one or two of the Keys. Maybe we need to see Key West go from being a tourist attraction to a SCUBA excursion. Maybe then we'll take action.

One last point. A Chinese diplomat in Copenhagen said, “It's as if the West is at a dinner party, China is joining for dessert, and the West is sticking China with the bill.” That's a bad metaphor. It's more like we are in an opium den, we are stoned out of our minds, we're one toke away from a fatal overdose, and China is banging on the door trying to get in while there is still some dope left to smoke – and they want to mainline it straight into the carotid artery.

Solar. Wind. Geothermal. Marine Current Kinetic. Negawatts. Clean Energy. No Waste.