Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

1.  Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance coops and Food coops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

Here are the details … Apple, IBM, Microsoft, Dell, & HP

Apple will continue to reinvent itself, bringing out “the best iPhone, iPad, iPod, iMac and MacBook – ever.” It won’t get Apple TV right, but no one will care. The Mac Mini will very quietly enter the server space, in workgroups, small companies and science and engineering labs. Software “apps” will be developed on iMacs and Minis for use in the field. It will continue grow by creating then exploiting new markets. It may even get Apple TV right one day. IBM will continue to thrive in computer hardware and software engineering and professional services.

As illustrated, their market capitalizations and stock prices will grow 25%. The valuation of Microsoft may grow 20%. Dell, and HP, however, will not grow more than 10% and will remain well below their historical peaks.

Financial analysts will come to regard Microsoft, MSFT, as analogous to an investor owned utility. They will note that it has completed it’s growth cycle and has leveled off, and will expect dividends, and continue to receive them. One way that it could grow dramatically would be to split into a three companies: a server software company, a business desktop software company, and a home software company, but that idea is 10 years old. They didn’t do it then; they won’t do it now.

HP will continue to gyrate without focus. They designed an inferior tablet, compared to the iPad, and an overpriced tablet compared to the Nook, Kindle and Kindle Fire, and face competition in the printer space from Canon, Sharp, and Xerox. HP will, in 2012, cede the laptop and workstation markets to Dell and Lenovo, and lose market share in the server market to Dell and IBM. They won’t care about the laptop and workstation markets because the margins are so thin, except for Apple, but the loss of the server market will be painful because there are margins and services there. HP needs a Lou Gerstener to make the elephant dance, and return to the “HP Way.” Fiorina didn’t do it. She tried to remake HP in her image rather than return to what Hewlett and Packard did that made HP great. I don’t know if Whitman will do it. She won’t do it in a year, and may wind up fired by a Board that is impatient and bored.

Dell will continue to take it’s customers for granted and treat them badly. While this may not rise to the level of the 2008 settlement between the Attorney General of New York and Dell Computer and Dell Financial, (NY AG Dell site here / NY Times coverage here) bad customer service will not get better. Dell is growing by acquisition, which is an expensive way  to gain customers, typically requiring tremendous leverage putting a heavy burden on staff. It will sacrifice morale for statistics.

This will reflected in the stock prices. Apple, and IBM will increase 25% to 480 (AAPL) and $225 (IBM). Microsoft may grow 20%. Dell, and HP will gyrate but end the year where they started. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will increase about 10% to 1320.

The price of oil will end 2012 at $150 to $170 per barrel. The price of gasoline will hit 6.00 per gallon in California and New York City. People will drive less, and when they buy cars, they will buy more efficient new cars.  Increased CAFE standards, click here for overview, 27.5 mpg, since 1990, which Obama will again try to increase, will continue to annoy Republicans and Tea Party faithful, who will buy more efficient vehicles anyway.  Meanwhile fleet efficiencies will climb faster than the CAFE standards mandate as businesses and municipalities factor in fuel and maintenance costs in the life cycle analyses they perform. Parking lot solar energy systems will spread from California, Texas, and New Jersey to other parts of the country. These will feed the grid and charge electric cars driven by commuters, and generate revenue for the owners.

Nuclear Power & Disasters.

There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. If Russia, we will not learn of it for days. If China or North Korea we will not learn of it for weeks. If India, the government will blame Pakistan. If Pakistan, the government will blame India, the United States, and Israel. This will have the unintended consequence of driving stronger ties between Israel and India. We will see battery powered Tata Motors cars in Israel, as well as Europe. These will be commuter vehicles. They will not displace trains. We will continue to see high speed rail displace inter-city and regional airplane traffic. And trains will continue to grow, particularly in Europe and Asia.  We will look for evidence of leaked tritium at various nuclear power plants, and find it wherever we look.

There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China in which 20,000 people will die. This will take place in a coal mine, an elementary school, a railroad, a housing project or an airport, another example of unregulated totalitarianistic state capitalism.

Wal-Mart v Credit Unions and Food Co-ops.

Wal-Mart will stop growing. Part of this will be due to gas prices, and higher priced poor quality goods from China. People will stop buying cheap crap they need to replace quickly, and start demanding – and paying for – good, durable, locally sourced goods – goods that are good.

Credit Unions, Mutual Insurance Companies and Food Co-Ops will grow 10% to 25%. Credit Unions and Insurance co-ops will grow, in part, as a result of the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. We will also see a slight increase in organic and sustainable farming.  The margins will increase because people will pay more for healthier and better tasting food, and manure will cost less than gas based fertilizers. Ranchers will also begin deploying manure to methane cookers, and will run farm equipment on manure. They – we – will also plant gardens, eat less meat, and get healthier.

Energy  Pundits (funded by coal, methane, and oil industry interests) will continue to call for fracking and carbon sequestration. Politicians will listen oblivious to the facts on water use or pollution costs that will be externalized to future generations. At the same time, conservative politicians will begin to re-assess energy subsidies for coal, oil, methane, and nuclear.

Solar energy capacity in New Jersey and California will increase by about a third, from 400 MW to 600 MW, in Jersey, and from 700 MW to 1 Gigawatt in California. Solar will spread to Florida, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, This will be accompanied by a price drop to below $5.00 per watt, and additional technology breakthroughs in manufacturing and design efficiencies. These phenomena will feed each other in another positive, or reinforcing feedback loop.  Small solar will spread to aboriginal communities in Africa, Australia, South and Central America, and remote parts of Asia.

Iowa gets 20% of it’s electric power from the wind today. This will increase to 25% over 2012.

Wind, hydro, solar hot water, and geothermal will increase by 25% in the Pacific Northwest.

1.0 gigawatts of nameplate capacity in one or two old coal or nuclear plants will be decommissioned, replaced with wind, solar, geothermal, and insulation. This will be done for reasons, having as much to do with economics as the environment.

1.0 million homes in the US will be retrofitted with R25 or better insulation in the walls and attic.

Ground – or water – will be broken as the first offshore wind farms in US waters will be started, either Cape Wind, in the Horseshoe Shoals off Nantucket, or the New Jersey wind farms.

There will also be design breakthroughs in offshore hydro-electric, or marine current generation, and deep geothermal.

The government of Syria will fall, but, as is happening in Egypt, the military will take or hold power. Bashar Al Assad will be killed, like Muammar Gadaffi, by the people at whos heads he has pointed his guns, or he will find refuge in Tehran, Iran, Baghdad, Iraq, or, like Idi Amin, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Iran and Turkey will compete to fill the power vacuum. Since the government of Iran is unstable – the people are hungry for democracy as well as food- this round will go to Turkey. Hamas will continue embrace the Palestinian Authority. It will also continue to call for the destruction of Israel. Without support from Syria, Iran, Iraq, and the Saudis, these cries will grow louder, harsher, more shrill, yet less effective. The Israelis, however, will grow more frightened and will respond with harsher methods. It’s a reinforcing feedback cycle. Hamas will continue to execute people who call for peace with Israel. Calls for divestiture of Israel by the left in the US and Europe will be ignored.

Back in the US, foreclosures will continue, driving property values down. Many will remain unsold as credit will be expensive and speculators will be cautious.  However, as energy prices climb, and as effective insulation can be made from recycled cellulose (newspaper) treated with boric acid, people who have some equity will invest in negawatts, and nega-fuel-watts. And they will plant gardens.

The Republican Party will be divided over calls by Newt Gingrich and business owners for amnesty for undocumented workers (here), calls by Mitt Romney and Wall Street to allow “the foreclosure process to take its course” (here), and by citizens opposed to the appearance of a biases in favor of illegal aliens and Wall Street “Banksters.” People will turn away from the GOP as they will see adherance to Grover Norquist’s pledge as destructive and unpatriotic, and the focus by John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, on cutting taxes for the 1% while raising taxes on the 99%, which people will perceive as a transfer of wealth to the very wealthy. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who is said to have cost Maricopa County $43 million in lawsuits, will resign over his alleged bias against Latinos. The calls for the impeachment of Clarence Thomas, over conflict of interest for not recusing himself over business dealings of Ginny Thomas – Mrs. Justice Thomas – will get louder. Another two or three married members of the House or Senate will be involved in a ‘sexting’ scandal. There will be a scandal involving a prominent Republican politician or her husband involved in ilicit sexual liasons with a professional sex worker of the same gender. This will be immortalized with “Marriage is between a man and a woman. But with sin; anything goes!” The unemployment rate will drop below 8.2%. Elizabeth Warren will be elected Senator from Massachusetts, the Democrats will regain control of the House. Barak Obama will win re-election to the Presidency.

“Vapor Trails,” by Bob Siegel and Roger Saillant will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. “It’s Rainin’ Outside the Cave” featuring “Sunbathing in Siberia” and other songs of peace, love, and global warming will not become a hit record. Neither Emenim nor Kanye West will do a ‘rap’ version. Rianna will not do a duet with me . Lady Gaga will not moan a version of it. Brittney Spears will not ask about covering any of my songs as part of her “Comeback Tour.” Neither will Justin Timberlake, Justin Beiber, Arlo Guthrie or Tom Paxton. Nor do Siegel, Sallant, or myself seem likely to win MacArthur “Genius Grants.” However, we will develop a screenplay of Vapor Trails which will feature some of my songs, and we ink a film deal.

Green Living Festival

Tweet I am presenting “Beyond Fuel: From Consuming Natural Resources to Harnessing Natural Processes,” a discussion of the hidden costs, or “economic externalities,” of nuclear power, coal, and oil, and the non-obvious benefits of wind, solar, marine hydro and efficiency at the Space Coast Green Living Festival, Cocoa Beach, Florida, Sept 17, 2011.

The festival  is sponsored by the Cocoa Beach Surfrider Foundation and the Sierra Club Turtle Coast Group. It will be at the Cocoa Beach Courtyard by Marriott.

Cocoa Beach is about 60 miles east of Orlando and 120 miles north of West Palm Beach. It is easily accessible by air, land, sea and space.

This will be similar to the presentation I recently gave to the NYC Business Sustainability Minded Action Round Table (Click here or here).

It is during hurricane season. Hopefully life will not be imitating art as portrayed in Vapor Trails, by Roger Saillant and Bob Siegel, and the conference will not be cut short by a hurricane of Katrina-like proportions.

courtesy NASA (our tax dollars at work)

  Tweet  It sounds too good to be true:

*   100 gigawatts of offshore wind, $300 Billion,
*   100 gw of landbased wind, $200 Billion,
*   75 gw of solar, $300 Billion,
*   75 gw of geothermal, $200 Billion.
*   200 gigawatt equivalents of efficiency – $200 Billion.
*   100 & Clean, Renewable, Sustaianble Energy: 1.2 Trillion.
*   2.7 Million New Jobs and a Healthy Economy: Priceless!

This is happening, slowly, inexorably, by the “invisible hand of the market.” But it will happen faster if the “invisible mind of the community” acts. This means the government!

In his “General Theory on Employment, Interest, and Money ” John Maynard Keynes argued that the only employer with the resources to create large numbers of jobs and dramatically unemployment is the government. It can take risks entrepreneurs cannot because it can’t go out of business. The Keynsians are not arging that government spending – when done correctly – will create jobs and stimulate the economy. They know it does. The only question is “How many jobs will be created?”

To raise revenues the government can either borrow money or raise taxes. It made sense to cut taxes to eliminate the surplus that Bill Clinton’s Presidency facilitated. And it makes sense to raise taxes to deal with the deficits today. Tax rates are such, particularly for wealthy people, that they can help finance investment in infrastructure projects that will create jobs and position the United States for the future.

Investment in shifting our energy infrastructure from coal, oil, methane and nuclear power to a sustainable framework built around wind, solar, geothermal, bio-fuels, and efficiency – clean, renewable, sustainable energy will, according to Bruce Katz at the Brookings Institution, create 2.7 million jobs. By itself this will lower the unemployment rate from 9.2% to 7.4% and cut unemployment from about 13.5 million people to about 10.8 million people. In addition, it will spur growth in other sectors – cars, housing, entertainment.

But will it work? Even if we can power our economy by a paradigm shift to sustainable energy, can we power our lifestyles with wind, solar, geothermal, renewable fuels and efficiency? Between 2000 and 2010, before Fukushima, Germany cut nuclear from 29% to 20%. Renewables make up the difference. After Fukishima, Angela Merkel announced that Germany will accelerate its transition from nuclear and coal to wind, solar and efficiency technologies. Germany will be at 40% renewable by 2025. They will be at 100% renewables by mid-century.

We can do this here – 100% renewable for about $1.2 Trillion – about the cost of the war in Iraq:

*   100 gigawatts of offshore wind, $300 Billion,
*   100 gw of landbase wind, $200 Billion,
*   75 gw of solar, $300 Billion,
*   75 gw of geothermal, $200 Billion,
*   200 gigawatt equivalents of efficiency – $200 Billion,
*   100 & Clean, Renewable, Sustaianble Energy: 1.2 Trillion,
*   2.7 Million New Jobs and a Healthy Economy, Priceless!

There are environmental impacts – wind turbines make noise, solar energy require various heavy metals in the manufacturing processes. However, these are negligible compared to the arsenic, lead, mercury, uranium, zinc and other heavy metals released when coal is mined, processed, transported and burn, or the tritium and the other radioactive wastes produced by “business as usual” operation of nuclear power.

New renewable energy systems are also cheaper to build than new coal, oil, methane, and nuclear.  New nuclear is probably on the order of $6 to $10 billion per gw, new coal w carbon sequestration is $18 b / gw. The costs of new oil and methane w sequestration are probably on the order of coal.

But … it means the government must act!

Earth from Space, courtesy of the American taxpayer. Reto Stöckli, Nazmi El Saleous, and Marit Jentoft-Nilsen, NASA GSFC

Tweet

Earth Day, 2010, I looked to the future on Popular Logistics. In 2009, I wrote about water pollution and agricultural waste in the Chesapeake. Today I am looking at the present and recent past. While a comprehensive look at where we are can be found on the web pages of the World Watch Institute, the New York Times, and the World Factbook of the Central Intelligence Agency, I want to make a few points.

Our energy policy is “when you flip a switch, the juice gotta flow.” It ain’t magic. It’s engineering and classical physics, with an understanding of radioactive fission and decay and a profound lack of long term thinking. It ain’t magic, but it might as well be. But we really need to base our energy policy on an understanding of ecological economics and sustainability.

We’ve had a few problems with nuclear power and fossil fuel in the last few years. Yet, there’s some light on the horizon.

Regarding those problems with fossil fuel …

December 22, 2008, a flood of 1.2 billion gallons of toxic coal ash at the Kingston Steam Plant on the Clinch and Emory Rivers, upstream of Kingston, Tennessee, here or here. April, 2010, a disaster at the Upper Big Branch Mine in Montcoal, West Virginia (here). One of the results of the accident was that Massey Energy, the company that operated the mine, was sued by institutional investors who alleged corporate malfeasance. And then there was the catastrophic spill of 50,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil per day into the Gulf of Mexico for three months. These, I said, were the “Fossil Fuel Trifecta of Disaster.” My series began with “Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon.”  BP’s stock – and “market capitalization” was cut in half. While it has since recovered somewhat, it is still well below the level immediately prior to the spill. BP has also lost good executives to the nascent biofuels industry.

Also back in 2009, I started covering the “Purgen Plant,” a “Rube Goldberg” design for a coal plant with carbon sequestration, here.  The technology is incredibly expensive – $16 to $18 per watt – and spectacularly stupid. The plan is to use 25% to 40% of the output of the plant to capture 90% of the carbon, then compress it and pipe it 70 miles along the sea floor, then bury it 1 mile beneath the bottom of the ocean. It will cost the taxpayers billions, as long as nothing goes wrong.

More recently I’ve been writing about the unfolding earthquake – tsunami – nuclear disaster in Japan beginning with  Earthquake, Tsunami, and Energy Policy and concluding with Nuclear Power, What Future? But there are two important points – under “normal” conditions nuclear power produces less radioactive waste than coal, and the wastes from nuclear power plants are regulated. Under real world conditions, nuclear plants leak tritium and other radioisotopes into the biosphere. Look to this blog for more posts on this in the future.

Yet, there is some good news.

• Cape Wind, LLC finally got the permits they need to build America’s first offshore wind farm (see Cape Wind, Leadership and Vision).
• The solar energy industry is strong in New Jersey and California, and expanding.
• The FDA expects America’s rural electric coops to continue to move into renewable energy.
• Bright, dedicated, passionate and beautiful people are thinking about sustainability in places like Bainbridge, Columbia Earth Institute, the Fowler Center at Case Western, Marlboro College, the Presidio, UVM.
• Large institutions such as Deutsche Bank – one of the 10 largest banks – and Zurich Reinsurance are concerned about climate change. Click here and here. concerned about climate change.

In addition to my work on this blog, my song “Sunbathing in Siberia” may not be “American Idol” fare (and that’s part of the problem) but my friends dig it, and my “Earth Energy Haikus” were posted on Amida’s web site. The problems we write about on Popular Logistics are complex “systems” problems. They have developed over the last 50 or 100 or 200 years. They can’t be fixed with a magic wand. We need to look long and hard at various paradigms, such as energy and consumption, and how they need to shift. In his lectures, his book, “Sustainability by Design” and on his blog, John Ehrenfeld defines “Sustainability” as “Flourishing forever.” Doing it is the conundrum.

–

The image of the “Blue Marble” was created by Reto Stöckli, Nazmi El Saleous, and Marit Jentoft-Nilsen, at the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA GSFC. It is described here.  “This true-color image shows North and South America as they would appear from space 35,000 km (22,000 miles) above the Earth. The image is a combination of data from two satellites. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite collected the land surface data over 16 days, while NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) produced a snapshot of the Earth’s clouds.”

Second in a series  (1, 2) that began on “Earth Day” (0).

“In order to make Policy, you have to be good at Politics.”

- Deborah Stone, “Policy Paradox”

President Obama, Official Photo

I like and respect President Obama. I think he’s a well educated lawyer and law school professor, with a good grasp of the Constitution, and the realities of Chicago machine politics and Inside-The-Beltway politics. He understands Stone. He’s also a moderate liberal. However, his economic advisors – Tim Geithner and Larry Sommers – only know what’s good for Wall Street, so every answer is “what’s good for Wall Street.” They don’t appear to know anything about ecological economics.  Obama needs to listen to Herman Daly, Robert Costanza, Paul Krugman, Robin Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz, and others with a long term view and a better understanding of what neoclassical economists call “externalities.”

Perhaps worse, his energy secretary, Steven Chu, is focused on carbon sequestration, nuclear power, and what we might as well call “Drill Baby, Opps.”

I heard Secretary Chu on “On Point” on NPR talk about energy on 5/5/10. He said “we need to be competitive with new 21st C. energy technologies.” He’s right. However, when asked point blank, “Why not just require all new homes to have solar panels, the way the cars require catalytic converters?” Chu, who’s from California – which leads the U.S. in PV solar, who therefore should

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

Conservation is important. We probably waste 70% or more of the BTU’s and KWH we generate,* but even if we were 100% efficient, we would still continue to need to produce energy. With all due respect, Chu’s “New Energy Vision” – Coal Oil and Nuclear – is 50 years old.

The Kingston, Tennessee coal ash spill of 12/22/08 (Earth Observatory, CNN) was a disaster. The Upper Big Branch mining accident of 4/5/10 (MSHA) was tragic: 29 miners lost their lives. Their families will be devestated. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (NYTimes) was also tragic: 11 riggers lost their lives. But if the oil enters the Guld Stream, (and it’s called the Gulf Stream because it originates in the Gulf) it will be catastrophic. When interviewed on NPR on 5/5/10, Mary Landry, Coast Guard Rear Admiral “slipped” in describing BP as “our partner.” That was a telling slip. We can’t allow the Administration to continue to privatize economic gains and dump economic liabilities on the taxpayers.

Gov. Palin, Official Photo

If I wanted a President who supported offshore drilling, I’d have voted for John McCain. We need to hold Barack Obama accountible for his promises.

Chu himself said “We need to lay the foundation by which we are able to compete on 21 C energy in 25 to 50 years.” This is wind, solar, geothermal, and marine current, not coal, oil, and nuclear. Wind is $2 or $3 per watt at a utility scale. Solar is $5.75 per watt installed today in NJ on a residential scale, and probably $4.25 per watt on a utility scale, and is dropping – with maintenance costs in the north-east that are close to $0. Coal with Carbon Capture and Sequestration is $14.22 per watt (assuming it works). I can’t calculate nuclear costs because I don’t have sufficient data. However, it starts at $8 to $10 per watt without factoring in the costs of the NRC, the Price Anderson Act and other government costs and taxpayer subsidies – for fuel, waste management, oversight, regulation – How do you price security costs for 100 to 1000 years?

Senator Al Franken

As Sen. Al Franken might say, “There are a lot of funny people in Washington. Most, however, are not funny on purpose.”

Obama is now pushing loan guarantees – taxpayer subsidies -for coal with CCS, offshore drilling, and nuclear power, none of which are clean, renewable, or good for the economy or the planet. He campaigned on Clean Energy, not “Drill Baby, Opps.” The President should be listening to Van Jones, Amory Lovins, Bill McKibben, Roger Saillant, and me; not Stephen Chu, Don Blankenship and Sarah Palin.

Whether you define sustainability as “meeting the needs of people today in ways that do not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their needs”, like the Bruntland Commission, “flourishing today and forever,” like John Eherenfeld, or “harnessing natural processes rather than consuming and destroying natural resources and creating toxic wastes”, nuclear and fossil fuels are not sustainable.

Al Gore

As Al Gore (350.org, RepowerAmerica) said, “we are borrowing from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf /rip coal out of the ground/ and burning it ways that are destroying the planet. Every bit of that has got to change.” Deepwater Horizon was not what Gore had in mind.

– Note –
* The Toyota Prius and Honda Insight get 45 to 50 mpg with technology that has been commercially viable for 10 years. If the mean milage of the North American auto fleet is 22.5 mpg, and it’s probably less, then 50% of the gasoline burned in the US is wasted. And that’s assuming that every mile driven by every car is necessary,  no energy is used in drilling, refining or transporting gas, and, no oil is spilled. The Bright Automotive Idea One is a 100 mpg delivery van. If that design was incorporated into cars, then about 77.5% of the gasoline we consume is wasted.

Ships trying to Extinguish the Flames at the Deepwater Horizon Rig

1. Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, May 3, 2010.
2. Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, May 7, 2010.
3. The Magnitude of the Spill, May 15, 2010.
4. One Month After The Spill BP Siphoning 3,000 Barrels Per Day, May 20, 2010.
5. Deep Water Horizon – The Chernobyl of Deepwater Drilling?, June 2, 2010.
6. The Deepwater Horizon: 40,000 Barrels Per Day or 70,000, June 13, 2010.
7. The Deepwater Horizon After the Macondo Well Explosion, June 19, 2010.
8. Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes, July 1, 2010.
9. Like a Bad High School Math Problem, July 14, 2010.
10. Crisis Management and the Gulf Oil Spill, July 16, 2010.
11. The Deepwater Horizon: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, October 7, 2010.

Vermont Yankee, Courtesy of US NRC

There’s no question that nuclear power will be part of our energy supply mix for the foreseeable future.  The United States has 104 nuclear power plants in operation at present, according to Matthew Wald on the Green Inc. blog of The New York Times, relying on NRC data. Incidents like this – in which a corporate official makes a false statement with serious health and safety implications – give us pause.

Which is worse – that the official was mistaken, and not aware that Vermont Yankee had water pipes which could leak – or that he knew and lied?

Incompetence or dishonesty, it would seem.  Nuclear power can’t be a safe part of our energy future on those terms. Entergy is responsible for knowing everything there is to know about the plants it operates. A material and incorrect statement – under oath, no less – seems explainable only by three hypotheses: (1) the official lied; (2) the official failed to make himself aware of the plant, in which case the question shouldn’t have been answered; (3) the official was misinformed by subordinates.

If the first explanation is correct, perjury charges are, of course, in order. If the second or the third – Entergy hasn’t met its obligations to mind the store.

From the Associated Press via NPR: Top Vermont Yankee Official ‘Relieved Of Duties’:

A top official at the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant was permanently relieved of his duties and placed on leave, the plant owner’s CEO said Tuesday, less than a week after Gov. Jim Douglas demanded management changes over misstatements made to state officials.

Entergy Nuclear chief executive J. Wayne Leonard did not identify the official by name. But he described the executive relieved of his duties in a way that could only apply to Vice President Jay Thayer.

Douglas’ urging for management shake-up followed revelations that plant officials misled state regulators and lawmakers by saying last year the plant did not have the sort of underground pipes that could carry radioactive tritium.

“In May 2009, an Entergy executive testified in a hearing on the state’s report that he didn’t think we had any such pipes, but he would get back to them,” Leonard said. “He did not get back to them. He has issued a public apology and made clear that he failed to provide full and complete information, either on the witness stand or by failing to get back to them.

“He has been permanently relieved of his duties in Vermont, and placed on administrative leave pending the outcome of the full investigation,” Leonard added.

Calls to Thayer’s home were not immediately returned Tuesday.

On Jan. 7, it was announced that tritium, an isotope said to cause cancer if ingested in high amounts, had been found in elevated levels in a groundwater monitoring well at Vermont Yankee. Plant and federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission officials have maintained tritium has not appeared in groundwater at concentrations that pose any threat to public health or safety.

On Tuesday, plant spokesman Robert Williams said the highest reading yet of tritium had been reported in a monitoring well at the Vernon reactor. The latest reading is four times the Environmental Protection Agency’s safety limit for tritium in drinking water.

Leonard, speaking Tuesday about the company’s fourth-quarter 2009 results to shareholders and analysts in a conference call, gave an update on Entergy Nuclear’s plan to spin off a new company to own Vermont Yankee and four other northern nuclear stations.

Leonard raised the possibility that the plan could go ahead without including Vermont Yankee if the state fails soon to approve the spinoff; he said a lack of approval in Vermont might merely move completion of the deal from this spring to later in the year.

Vermont Yankee is not profitable for Entergy under the terms under its current deal to sell power to Vermont’s electric utilities, Leonard said. The company is hoping to operate the plant for 20 years past the expiration of its current license in 2012 and says it will seek higher prices from the utilities then.

See alsoMatthew L. Wald, Vermont Power Plant Continues to Leak Radiation.

Technicians seeking the source of a leak of radioactive tritium at the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant have found concentrations in groundwater there that were three times higher than what was discovered last week, a plant spokesman said Monday.

Tritium was measured at 70,500 picocuries per liter, which the spokesman, Rob Williams, characterized as a low level. The highest level discovered so far “does not present a risk to public health or safety whatsoever,” he said in a statement.

But it does put Vermont Yankee over the threshold at which it is obligated to make a report to federal regulators within 30 days, and say what it will do about the problem. The limit, 30,000 picocuries, was crossed on Sunday.

]]> http://popularlogistics.com/2010/02/entergy-official-relieved-of-duties-for-false-statement-abou-t-vermont-yankee-nuclear-plant/feed/ 3 http://popularlogistics.com/2008/03/chairman-of-nrc-panel-indifferent-to-whether-indian-point-hearings-audible-to-audience/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chairman-of-nrc-panel-indifferent-to-whether-indian-point-hearings-audible-to-audience http://popularlogistics.com/2008/03/chairman-of-nrc-panel-indifferent-to-whether-indian-point-hearings-audible-to-audience/#comments Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:35:12 +0000 Jon http://popularlogistics.com/2008/03/11/chairman-of-nrc-panel-indifferent-to-whether-indian-point-hearings-audible-to-audience-or-participants/

1. The NRC is interested in limiting the scope of the public hearings;
2. the NRC doesn’t mind if no one can hear what’s being said

Opponents of the Indian Point nuclear power plants, including New York State, got their day in court on Monday – sort of – to explain why they thought the two reactors should not be allowed to operate 20 more years. It signified the first time that a state had stepped forward to flatly oppose license renewals. But like much about the tangled history of the plants in Westchester County, the hearing before a three-judge panel appointed by the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission was not that simple. The proceedings got off to a prickly start when a member of the audience seated in a courtroom at the Westchester County Courthouse here complained to the panel chairman, Lawrence G. McDade, that he could not hear what was being said. “The acoustics here are what the acoustics here are,” said Mr. McDade, a former military judge, who was himself using a microphone. The difficulty was that about 20 lawyers seated at five tables and flanked by cartons of documents, as well as another 20 or so who spilled over into the jury box, did not have microphones. When Michael B. Kaplowitz, vice chairman of the Westchester County Board of Legislators, rose and said he could not hear the lawyers representing him – and that he was not a member of the audience but a participant – Mr. McDade told Mr. Kaplowitz that he could read the transcript later. After a lunch break, Mr. McDade relented and had more microphones brought in. Acoustics were not the only setback for those opposed to relicensing the two plants in Buchanan, on the east bank of the Hudson River 35 miles north of Midtown Manhattan. It was immediately clear that for the opponents – the state, Westchester County and several environmental groups – to win the day, they would have to persuade the panel and the regulatory agency itself to reconsider what arguments are admissible. The commission has ruled that for an argument to be considered in license extension hearings, it must deal with problems that may arise because the license is extended. The state contends, however, that the region’s extraordinary population density, when considered together with the threat of terrorism or earthquake, makes the plants unsafe. “The presence of the Indian Point nuclear power plant in our midst is untenable,” the state argued in a legal brief. Joan Leary Matthews, a lawyer for the State Department of Environmental Conservation, said in an opening statement that “whatever the chances of a failure at Indian Point, the consequences could be catastrophic in ways that are almost too horrific to contemplate.” Sherwin Turk, a lawyer for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said that questioning whether the site was a good idea in the first place was not within the scope of the proceeding. Foes of Indian Point Begin Legal Battle, The New York Times, March 11, 2008.