Monthly Archives: October 2007

Orbiting

WMX has an appropriate response to what’s likely to be the latest edition of “security theatre” – this year’s TOPOFF exercise.

Our “premier terrorism preparedness exercise” is based on a dirty bomb threat?  And has been based on a dirty bomb threat for the last 8 years?

I’m only halfway kidding.  The United States has a lot of problems that, while they might not look as big as a “dirty bomb” going off, are a bit more pressing.  Case in point: 11 September was not a radiological, chemical or biological attack.

Future devastating attacks will be “black swans” (as John Robb calls them in Brave New War), attacks coming out of left field that are cheap and unexpected and targeted at infrastructure.  Why were the attacks of 11 September genius?  Hijackings had been around for decades by that point.  Dealing with them had become fairly old hat.

They were brilliant because they connected two things that people hadn’t connected before.  Who thinks of turning an airplane into a guided missile?  No one- until someone with great synthesis skills started turning over airplanes in their head.

The attacks on the Trade Center probably caused less casualties than a radiological attack would.  Why was that message chosen then?  Because it made people afraid to fly.  Because no one was thinking about defending against that kind of attack.  We’ve been preparing to respond to radiological emergencies for better than thirty years.

Wargaming programs like TOPOFF would be better off confronting “top officials” and first responders with something that they’ve never seen before.  Hit them with something like an attack on a power plant, or an oil refinery, or a bridge.  Attack the infrastructure.  This isn’t a new idea- it’s been around since John Warden’s The Air Campaign and we used it to toss Iraq in DESERT STORM.  Why do we assume that our enemies won’t be that smart?

WingmanX’s post here.

I’ll add that – as someone involved at the local level – in a city in which the Fire and Police departments didn’t do serious drills between the 1993 and 2001 WTC attacks – we need to spend money and energy on working-level

drills. 

Or

  • another example from Irwin Redlener – hospital evacuations – logistically complex – and under some circumstances, absolutely critical;
  • evacuations of other institutions. For instance – the world’s largest prison – Riker’s Island – isn’t too far above sea level. In a flood, are we going to let prisoners drown?
  • Attacks on pipelines – or other underground infrastructure

I think WingmanX may have stumbled across the bureaucratic tripwire of this rule: if we acknowledge a problem, we then must take responsibility for solving it.

Potential common ground on health care issue – a starting point?

The discussion of national health insurance during the current presidential campaign seems quite familiar. The public, in polls – for decades, in fact – support single-payer systems in one form or another – notwithstanding many disingenuous arguments that all single-payer systems are (1) ineffective (2) too expensive (3) immoral, as they are a form of “handout” which weakens family and individual resolve. The phrase “socialized medicine” – my initial research suggests that this term first gained currency as an epithet during the Johnson-Goldwater race of 1964 – has been re-introduced by former Mayor Giluiani. This phrase seems to be shorthand for points (1) – (3) above.

At least three of the leading Democratic candidates are for a system which will improve on the current system – and might be a bridge to single-payer, or a hybrid.

How we get from here to there is a political question beyond my sophistication. For one thing – it seems unlikely that private insurance companies – and their owners and shareholders – are going to be passive about such a transition.

We here propose a point of consensus: that the President be given the explicit power to declare public health emergencies – with the following terms of reference:

  • Irrespective of apparent cause (terrorism, accident, other cause); like an arson investigation, determining whether a disease outbreak has an intentional or negligent causal origin is a matter for careful and slow investigation. This power should be without limitation as to preconditions;
  • Having declared such an emergency, the President may, in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief, use any and all resources and funds, including but not limited to the Veteran’s Administration, Medicaid, Medicare, and active and reserve elements of the Department of Defense, to combat the declared emergency;
  • the President may, in anticipation

of a public health emergency, or in planning for such a contingency, direct any and all elements of the government – notwithstanding the limitations of the posse comitatus and similar restrictions -to put in place infrastructure to prepare for emergencies. (In other words – have the infrastructure in place for a rapid expansion in an emergency; plan it, run the drills, be ready). Based on Paul Krugman’s columns on this subject – and recent reports about the excellence of the Veterans’ Administration’s infrastructure and its open-source patient management software – they’re a good candidate for this responsibility. But that’s a detail not necessary for this proposal.

The advocates of the “unitary executive” theory – that Presidential powers trump all restrictions, including the Geneva Conventions – must surely assume that the President already has these powers. Those opposed so socialized medicine are no less concerned about bioterrorism than its advocates.

So – I put it to the supporters and surrogates of each of the candidates – should or should not the President have the power to declare public health emergencies, and use federal resources to combat them?

[NB: This is not my idea – it’s Irwin Redlener’s rather elegant proposal; he had the good sense to come up with it, but apparently didn’t think much of it, because it’s nearly hidden in an appendix to his book Americans At Risk. There’s a lesson or two here: good books are worth re-reading (this one is); sometimes the best stuff is in the back of the book].

Thanks to Karina Ron for inspiring the conceptual frame.

DOD acquisition rules prevented purchase of superior MRAP

It appears that in 2004, U.S. military officials evaluated an African-designed and manufactured MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected)

vehicles. The Corps of [singlepic=94,320,240,,right] Engineers wanted it for its own personnel; David Axe of War Is Boring reports:

The urgency surrounding the multi-billion-dollar purchase of blast-resistant vehicles for the U.S. military is new, but the vehicles themselves are anything but. “They all hail back to southern African designs,” says Doug Coffey, spokesman for BAE., which builds the RG-33 armored truck. The roughly dozen “Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected” models, all with v-shaped hulls, have their roots in vehicles designed in the 1970s to counter road mines laid by black African guerillas during the Rhodesian “Bush War.”

Considering the provenance of today’s MRAPs, it’s perhaps surprising that one of the most successful African designs has been entirely absent from the U.S. program. The absence says more about politics and industrial considerations that it does about the virtues of particular designs. The Wolf, a 10-ton blast-resistant truck from Namibian state-owned manufacturer WMF, has served in the Danish, German and Namibian armies as well as with non-military agencies, the first of several hundred entering service in 1984. The latest model, the Wer’Wolf, debuted in 2000 and was quickly adopted by the Namibian army.

[singlepic=95,320,240,,] Clearly the Pentagon was aware of Wer’Wolf even before the belated launch of the MRAP program in late 2006. But when the Marine Corps began handing out production contracts for MRAP trucks in January 2007, small firms including Protected Vehicles and Force Protection, Inc, both based in South Carolina, were among the winners, but WMF was nowhere to be found. What happened?

Continue reading →

London to add to tube system; considering even more

The delays on New York’s Second Avenue line are nearing pension age. Our ability to use additional underground capacity – to move passengers, to move freight, and as emergency shelter – is not matched by planning or construction.

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Yet – our former colonial masters – at whom Americans snicker – (yes, marmite doesn’t quite make sense; but this is beside the point) – continue to surpass us in mass transportation and energy efficiency. They’re building new underground train extensions The “long train(s) of abuses and usurpations,” will, reportedly, carry 1,500 passengers  each. The “patient sufferance of these Colonies” perhaps now means that ‘we’ll build mass transportation systems when we’re good and ready.’ [singlepic=72,320,240,,right]

Thingsmagazine

reports that the Brits have taken a decision to start construction on a long-planned extension to the London underground transit system – Crossrail. And plans for the “Thames2000” extension remain under discussion. They could dither for another few years  – and they’d still get it done before the Second Avenue Subway. The following images are of the Thames2000 system.

Images from the thingsmagazine piece, linked here .

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Inhabitat: portable light via solar panels and LEDS

From Inhabitat:

Designed by Kennedy & Violich Architecture (KVA MATx), the beauty of the Portable Light Project is its merging of high-tech industry and local craft-based economies, not to mention the fact that it delivers usable light to demographics and regions that are either off-the-grid, mobile, or in locations with little daily sunlight. “Portable Light is based upon the principle that global needs for technology development are inevitably interconnected. Knowledge, techniques, market solutions and data produced by the project benefit the “third” world and the “first” world where the need to imagine, design and develop energy efficient alternatives to the centralized and increasingly costly electrical grid is becoming ever more important,” says KVA.

The materials themselves and attention to the design process prove that Portable Light is not just functional, but thoughtfully constructed with sustainability and humanity in mind. It combines high-brightness LEDs from pedestrian walk signals, water-resistant tactile switches from dishwashers, and rechargeable batteries from the cell-phone industry, all sourced from consumer appliances and standard technologies. Continue reading →

TOPOFF 2007: 2005 after-action report still not made public

According to Ellen Sullivan’s Associated Press piece , published on Firehouse.com

The nation is preparing for its biggest terrorism exercise ever later this month when three fictional “dirty bombs” go off and cripple transportation arteries in two major U.S. cities and Guam, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press.

Yet even as this drill begins, details from the previous national exercise held in 2005 have yet to be publicly released – information that’s supposed to help officials prepare for the next real attack.

Continue reading →

addition to blogroll – Brad’s Sketchpad

Just came across the very clever blog, Brad’s Sketchpad,  which is not  connected to the  excellent  actor Brad Dourif, the funny Brad Garrett , or the city Brad, which is located in Romania.

It belongs to Brad Stone, a technology writer for the Times, my hometown paper. And he seems to be channeling Gary Larsen, the Far Side cartoonist. Or so it appears; my understanding was that the Times had a rule against cartoonists appearing in the newsroom, often misunderstood simply as a reluctance to publish Doonesbury or other cartoons. So maybe he’s just swiped the real Brad Stone’s identity. If so, watch the Times’ tech blog, Bits , for an interesting series on identity theft.

Not me, though. If I were going to be impersonating someone at the Times – and I could pull it off – Maureen Dowd. The Popular Logistics Board of Estimates has concluded that she’s probably having more fun than anyone else there. Like Rosalind Russell but without the hats.

London gets hybrid double-decker buses

From Inhabitat:


As part of the Mayor of London’s plan for an increased reliance on energy efficient vehicles to power the city’s transport infrastructure, Transport for London, the British agency responsible for public transportation, has introduced one hybrid bus across route 141. The current hybrid bus is powered by a hybrid diesel-electric engine. Thanks to the mixture of both systems, the bus is able to cover the same distance range as a conventional diesel bus. All the hybrid buses will be marked with a leafy insignia to better communicate to the passengers that they are indeed traveling on an environmentally friendly bus. Here’s hoping that the rest of London, and other cities in the world follow this lead.

“This is a world-first for London marking our commitment to a cleaner, greener public transport network.” said Mayor Ken Livigstone.

Link to Inhadbitat post here.

Transport for London release here.

"Bring Your Own Everything" – Huntsville, Alabama establishing emergency shelters – just barely

Huntsville is setting up a shelter system – although there are no plans to provide food or bedding. What about light and heat? Medical care?

From Jay Reeves’ Associated Press article:

In an age of al-Qaida, sleeper cells and the threat of nuclear terrorism, Huntsville is dusting off its Cold War manual to create the nation’s most ambitious fallout-shelter plan, featuring an abandoned mine big enough for 20,000 people to take cover underground.

Continue reading →

Unusual occurrence – DHS blog permits gently critical comment

I don’t understand it.

But – Michael Chertoff has started a blog. And, after a recent  post, David W. Stephenson, of Stephenson Strategies, made a comment that actually made it through DHS screening.

I’m not sure he could have gotten the comment onto a commercial flight, though, unless it was in checked luggage.

Check out Mirabile dictu! My comment on Chertoff’s blog was ok’d

,  on Stephenson blogs on homeland security 2.0. 

Stephenson is co-author, with Eric Bonabeau, of Expecting the Unexpected: The Need for a Networked Terrorism and Disaster Response Strategy, in the February 2007 issue of Homeland Security Affairs . 

We’ve blogged about this article before – but it’s good enough that I’m happy to shill for it more than once – as I am about HSAJ’s parent organization, the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense & Security.

Between Stephenson, Bonabeau, and Professor Brian Steckler of NPS, I’ve been persuaded of the utility of wireless networks in emergencies – although it’s my contention that, organized from the bottom up – we need more than one system. More about system redundancy and about NPS soon.