Crisis (Mis) Management and the Gulf Oil Spill

by L J Furman on July 16, 2010

What BP and the Government Could Have Done and Should Be Doing

The handling of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is a textbook study of how not to manage a crisis. The government seems to have ceded responsibility to BP, which seems to have acted to protect the Macondo oil field rather than the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast.

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July 2010 Kampala attacks – via WikiNews

by jonathansoroko on July 15, 2010

Via WikiNews, some details of  the recent Uganda bombings:

The first bombing was carried out at a restaurant called the Ethiopian Village, situated in the Kabalagala neighbourhood, with many of the victims foreigners.[9] Fifteen people died in this attack.[3] The Kabalagala bombing occurred during the 2010 FIFA World Cup Final.[10]The second attack, consisting of two explosions in quick succession, occurred at 11:18 pm at Kyadondo Rugby Club in Nakawa, where state-run newspaper New Vision was hosting a screening of the match.[11] According to eyewitnesses, there was an explosion near the 90th minute of the match, followed seconds later by a second explosion that knocked out the lights at the field.[12] An explosion went off directly in front of a large screen that was showing the telecast from South Africa,[10] killing 49 people.[3] The discovery of a severed head and leg at the rugby field suggests that it was a suicide attack carried out by an individual.[3] A third unexploded vest was later found.[13]

via July 2010 Kampala attacks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

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It’s Like a Bad High School Math Problem

by L J Furman on July 14, 2010

Oil Spill

Oil and Oceans Don't Mix. From Mining News.

"If oil gushes into the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day, and it takes 84 days to achieve a capability of “process” the spilled oil at a rate of 30,000 barrels per day, how long does it take to “process” the spilled oil?”

It takes two days to process each day's gushed oil. So the answer is “2N + 188” where “N” equals the number of days oil gushes into the Gulf beyond the 84 days it took to achieve a processing capability of 30,000 barrels a day. If BP or the government stops the spill effective July 15, 2010, then they will process the oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico by January 20, 2011. If they are able to stop the flow of oil by August 1, 2010, then it will be Feb 19, 2011, before the spilled oil is “processed.” (Source of image)

And what exactly do they mean by “Process the spilled oil?”

People cleaning up the spill

People cleaning up the spilled oil.

Here's another problem: "What is the toxicity for people cleaning up, or "processing," the spilled oil? How much exposure can an average person tolerate? Is BP providing adequate safety gear and instructions? If people working to clean up the spill are reporting "light-headedness" and other symptoms, is that an indication that they have sustained a toxic exposure?" For more details, here is Melissa Taylor's article, "Doctors call for help protecting Gulf oil spill workers."

This Like a Bad High School Math Problem, is ninth in the series on the Deepwater Horizon / Macondo oil well disaster which began after Earth Day. Other posts include:

  1. Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon,
  2. Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops,
  3. The Magnitude of the Spill,
  4. One Month After,
  5. The Chernobyl of Fossil Fuels?,
  6. Magnitude, Part 2,
  7. After Macondo, and
  8. Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes.

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Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes

by L J Furman on July 1, 2010

Satellite Photo of Alex, NOAA

Satellite Photo of Hurricane Alex, courtesy NOAA

Hurricane Alex has temporarily halted cleanup efforts (Reuters).  Yet the oil continues to gush unabated. Using the Government's "Improved Estimate," 2.8 to 4.8 million barrels have gushed into the Gulf in the MONTHS since the April 20 explosion which killed 11 workers. The explosion and spill have destroyed fisheries, tourism, and profoundly disrupted the ecology of the Gulf. Given that the spill of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day continues unabated the extent of the damage is unclear.

In "Blow Up the Well to Save the Gulf," in the NY Times, 6/22/10, Christopher Brownfield, a former nuclear submarine officer, wrote, "President Obama needs to create a new command structure that places responsibility for plugging the leak with the Navy, the only organization in the world that can muster the necessary team. Then the Navy needs to demolish the well. ... At best, a conventional demolition would seal the leaking well completely and permanently without damaging the oil reservoir. At worst, oil might seep through a tortuous flow-path that would complicate long-term cleanup efforts. But given the size and makeup of the geological structures between the seabed and the reservoir, it’s virtually inconceivable that an explosive could blast a bigger hole than already exists and release even more oil."

President Obama instituted a 6-month  moritorium on deepwater drilling. Judge Martin L. C. Feldman of United States District Court, appointed by President Reagan in 1983, stopped the moritorium, writing that the Obama administration had failed to justify the need for such “a blanket ... moratorium” on deep-water oil and gas drilling. "The blanket moratorium, with no parameters, seems to assume that because one rig failed and although no one yet fully knows why, all companies and rigs drilling new wells over 500 feet also universally present an imminent danger.” NY Times.

With all due respect to Judge Feldman, the editors at Popular Logistics think that oil, coal, natural gas, mining, drilling, and transport, do present an imminent danger. Look at the evidence in the Gulf of Mexico, Ecuador, Nigeria, Prince Edward Sound, Montcoal, W. V, upriver of Kingston, Tenn, in the coal mines of China, and in the mercury levels in fish, shellfish, dolphins, and whales. The "Precautionary Principle"  dictates that we must stop drilling and figure out to move off fossil fuels.

Notes

  1. The "improved estimate of the Flow Rate Technical group, of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, announced by Energy Secretary Chu, Interior Secretary Salazar, and Director of the U. S. Geological Survey and Chair of the National Incident Command’s Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) Dr. Marcia McNutt on June 15, 2010, is consistent with a scientific analysis of the 70,000 barrels per day reported one month earlier by  NPR May 14, 2010  and a "back-of-the-envelope" estimate of 25,000 to 50,000 barrels per day reported in this blog on May 15, 2010.
  2. The "Precautionary Principle" implies a social responsibility to protect the public and the environment from harm.  In general, the burden of proof that an action or policy is not harmful falls on those taking the action. This allows policy makers to take action in the face of limited scientific data.
  3. The series began after Earth Day and includes Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, Magnitude, Part 1, One Month After, The Chernobyl of Fossil Fuel?, Magnitude, Part 2 and The Deepwater Horizon after the Macondo Well Spill. It will continue indefinitely.

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McChrystal Had To Go

by L J Furman on June 25, 2010

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, at work in a C-130. Photo by Petty Officer 1St Class Mark O'Donald, US Navy, Nato

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, on a C-130. Photo by Mark O'Donald, US Navy, Nato

Fred Kaplan, writing "Who's In Charge Here?" on Slate, concluded: "I would guess that, unless relations are too far gone to repair, Obama will stick with the horse he's got and considerably tighten the reins." Yet Kaplan's analysis suggested that McChrystal had to go.

Writing about Michael Hastings' article, "The Runaway General" published in Rolling Stone,  Kaplan wrote "on some level . . . McChrystal's operation is out of control." McChrystal is "a charismatic commander; ascetic, tough as nails, strategically smart, and as demanding of himself as he is of those around him. These sorts of commanders inspire deep loyalty from their inner circle, especially in wartime. In McChrystal's case it has inspired idolatry. Its been widely observed that his aides see themselves not merely as aides but as disciples to a warrior-god."

President Obama

President Obama

Do we want an army of citizens or warrior-gods? I think citizens. Since 1776 the United States of America has been a nation of law. When Washington, Grant, and Eisenhower took office their title changed from "General" to "Mr. President." This wasn't Orwellian doublespeak, as it is in dictatorships. The President of the USA is the Commander-In-Chief of U. S. armed forces and is a civilian. He does not wear a uniform. In circumstances where a U. S. President has faced impeachment, he was not likely to take control of the armed forces and establish himself as "President for Life."

Kaplan continues, "aides make jabs at civilian authority in McChrystal's presence - with, apparently, no approbation or dissent on the general's part. . . . What seems clear is that McChrystal has sown, or in an any case tolerates, an atmosphere of disrespect for the civilian chain of command."

I am not in uniform, the President is not my Commander-in-Chief. I, a private citizen, can legitimately, and without fear of retribution, disagree with or criticize the President. If drafted I would probably gripe about the food and the foolishness of war, but would serve with respect and hopefully distinction. A member of the American Armed Forces, whether a Private, a Sailor, an Admiral, or a General can respectfully disagree with his or her commanders, including the Commander-In-Chief but must carry out legal orders. But "disrespect the civilian chain of command"? That's intolerable. As de Gaulle once said, "The graveyards are full of indispensable men." McChrystal had to go.

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The Deepwater Horizon After the Macondo Well Explosion

June 19, 2010

First conclusion of a series that began after Earth Day and includes Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, Magnitude, Part 1, One Month After, The Chernobyl of Fossil Fuel?, and Magnitude, Part 2. ) As I wrote on Earth Day, "In 100 years our descendants will [...]

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Deepwater Horizon: 40,000 Barrels Per Day or 70,000?

June 13, 2010

Part 6 in a Series that began after Earth Day (1 Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, 2 Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, 3 The Magnitude, 4 One Month After, 5 Like Chernobyl?) Last month I wrote on Popoular Logistics "BP and the government say ... 5,000 barrels per day is [...]

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Sustainability and Israel

June 9, 2010

Question: What do you call a "Peace Activist" with a dagger? Answer: A supporter of the Palestinians. Popular Logistics joins Camera,  YNet, Fox News, and the NY Post in documenting  Reuter's "Fauxtography", or propaganda by doctoring photos. To look at the Israeli blockade of Gaza and not ask: Why exactly is Israel blockading Gaza? What [...]

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Reuters Full of Crop

June 9, 2010

Popular Logistics joins Camera (click),  YNet (click), Fox (click), and the New York Post (click) accused Reuters of "Fauxtography", or propaganda by doctoring photos . These are photos of the clash between released by IHH documenting it's clash with Israeli commandos. In the words of the Post Editorial, "One photo shows an Israeli surrounded by [...]

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Deepwater Horizon – the Chernobyl of Deep Water Drilling?

June 2, 2010

Fifth in a series I wish I didn't have to write (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) After 42 days (six weeks) the Deepwater Horizon Well is still gushing an estimated 70,000 barrels per day. It has probably gushed around 2.94 Million barrels of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, about 123.5 Million gallons [...]

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One Month After The Spill BP Siphoning 3,000 Barrels Per Day

May 20, 2010

Fourth in a series  1, 2, 3, 4) that began on "Earth Day" (0). Steve Gelsi at Marketwatch (click here) reports that BP is now siphoning 3,000 Barrels Per Day from the Deepwater Horizon Spill. According to research by NPR, the spill was 70,000 barrels per day.  In the 30 days that have elapsed since [...]

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The Magnitude of the Deepwater Horizon Spill

May 15, 2010

Third in a series (1, 2, 3) that began on "Earth Day" (0). BP and the government say they can't measure the spill on the ocean floor. However, 5,000 barrels per day is reaching the surface and most of the oil – 80%  to 90% – is below the surface. So I thnk it's  is [...]

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Drill Baby, Drill – or Drill Baby, Oops

May 7, 2010

Second in a series  (1, 2) that began on "Earth Day" (0). "In order to make Policy, you have to be good at Politics." - Deborah Stone, "Policy Paradox" I like and respect President Obama. I think he's a well educated lawyer and law school professor, with a good grasp of the Constitution, and the [...]

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Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon

May 3, 2010

The unfolding disaster at the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico, which promises to be an environmental catastrophe, (click here) the recent disasters at the Upper Big Branch coal mine in West Virginia, and the Kingston, Tennessee fly ash retention pond demonstrate that fossil fuels are dirty and dangerous.  Safety and environmental protection [...]

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Earth Day For the Future

April 23, 2010

In 100 years our descendants will not be burning coal, oil, natural gas or using nuclear fission.  They might be using terrestrial nuclear fusion.  They will be using solar, wind, geothermal, marine current hydro, tidal energy systems - clean, renewable, sustainable energy systems. No fuel: No Waste. No mines, mills, wells, spills. No arsenic, lead, [...]

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