popular logistics

According to the Associated Press, electricity is out for thousands in Omaha, Nebraska, and restoration of power is expected to take at least a week. Link via nola.com

According to the website of the THW (Technische Hilfswerk, or “Federal Agency for Technical Relief”), a recent conference continued what appears to be an ongoing discussion about cross-border cooperation:

Cooperation among civil protection organisations in the European Union (EU) was one of the key topics at the “Desaster [sic] Management 2008″ symposium in Schweinfurt last weekend. Dr. Manfred Schmidt, Head of the Department for Crisis Management and Protection of the Population at the German Federal Ministry of the Interior, Dr. Peter Billing from the EU Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC), and THW representatives spoke about the integration of the THW into the EU ‘Community Mechanism’.

Using past intervention missions as examples, Dr. Billing from the Civil Protection Unit at the European Commission illustrated the quality of European cooperation. Dr. Schmidt, who is the departmental head at the Interior Ministry responsible for the THW, went into more detail in his talk about the German contribution to cross-border disaster relief: an important part of this is based on the competencies at the THW. Representatives of the THW management held two lectures on the topics “The THW within the European Community Mechanism” and “Training EU Experts”, explaining the THW’s international work to the congress participants.

Quality of European cooperation, from the THW English-language website.

One doesn’t get the sense that this is a controversial discussion. The THW has assisted other countries, including France, in recent years, and this year has had teams in Cyprus, Myanmar, and China. And it’s only one of a number of German disaster relief organizations.

According to the CIA World Factbook, Germany’s population will be 82.3 million as of July 2008. For that population, Germany has 1,383,730 firefighters, mostly volunteers. The THW - which can be an alternative to compulsory military service, has 800,000 active volunteers, and about 800 in full-time administrative roles. And their organizational scheme is:

The main type of THW unit (about two out of three) is one of two Bergungsgruppe (1st and 2nd Rescue Groups), equipped with heavy tools like hydraulic cutting devices, chain saws, and pneumatic hammers.

The Fachgruppen (Technical Units) include:

* Infrastruktur (Infrastructure),
* Räumen (Debris Clearance),
* Sprengen (Demolition/Blasting),
* Elektroversorgung (Electricity Supply),
* Beleuchtung (Illumination),
* Wasserschaden / Pumpen (Water Damage / Pumps),
* Wassergefahren (Water Hazards),
* Logistik (Logistics),
* Ölschaden (Oil Pollution),
* Trinkwasserversorgung (Water Supply and Treatment),
* Führung und Kommunikation (Command, Control and Communication), and
* Ortung (Search and Detection).

And that’s not all; they’ve got four rapid-deployment (six-hour) SAR teams ready for foreign assignments, and five foreign assignment water-purification teams.

During Katrina, 89 German volunteers came to the United States to assist in levee repair. Loren Cobb of The Quaker Economist published this 2005 piece on the curious lack of attention by United States domestic media.

Just read a remarkable piece on Network Weaving about hub-and-spoke networks. From Connected Customers:

[The author, Valdis Krebs, had discussed attending a professional conference at a hotel]. The only negative with the event was the conference hotel’s awful WiFi service — and their response to it.

Hotels are used to dealing with disconnected customers — hotel guests who do not know each other. They can tell these guests anything. Since most guests do not talk to each other, nothing is verified, no action is coordinated.  In terms of social network analysis: the hotel staff spans structural holes between the guests — occupying the power position in the network. Below is a network map of the situation. The centralized hotel staff are shown by the blue node in the middle, while hotel guests are represented by the green nodes. The green nodes only talk to the blue node and not to each other.

When INSNA arrived, the hotel guests were no longer disconnected — many people in INSNA know each other and after initial greetings started to talk.

The conversation soon went to the lack of connectivity in the hotel — no one could get a connection out of the hotel to the internet. Not only did everyone discover they were having the same bad experience, but they discovered they were receiving the same lie from the hotel staff — “everything is fine, no one else is complaining”. Being lied to made “being disconnected” all the more infuriating.

Soon “emergent clusters” of INSNA members went to the front desk as small groups and started demanding better service — after all we were being charged for WiFi. The front desk manager became overwhelmed by the coordinated action and soon went into hiding and refused to talk about the topic. A network illustration of the connected INSNA hotel guests looks different. Because the green nodes are talking to each other and coordinating a strategy, the big blue node is now more constrained in it’s response, and ability to act.

There are lots of differences between these two structures: the latter structure looks more like Paul Baran’s description of a resilient network: redundant, decentralized. The first structure is entirely vulnerable to attack of the central node - and, under the circumstances Krebs describes, was incapable both of self-diagnosis and self-repair.

My apologies for not having the Paul Baran citations at hand - perhaps I’ll get an update in later - but for the nonce, am happy to send interested readers to Network Weaving; the proprietors also run OrgNet, and make InFlow network analysis software.

I wonder, if we did a network analysis of survivors of, say Katrina, what connectedness characteristics matter.

Kevin Poulsen at Threat Level has interviewed Paul Kurtz, at the time of the 2003 blackout the White House advisor on critical infrastructure security, who says the Chinese were not responsible for the 2003 blackout. Former White House Advisor: Hackers Didn’t Cause 2003 Blackout

Jorge Chapa, writing in Inhabitat, reports that the Hungarian prototype for the Antro Solo, production planned for 2012, gets 150 mpg, and here’s how:

• The hybrid electric/fossil fuel engine, familiar now to most of us - which captures energy while braking, thus recharging the electric batteries;
• an exceptionally light carbon composite frame;
• solar panels on the roof which can provide power for a 15 - 25 km trip (the post doesn’t specify how long that charge takes);
• The two passenger seats (it’s a three-seater) come with bicycle pedals, which can offset the car’s energy consumption;
• So if it’s dark, the battery is exhausted, you and your passengers are exhausted, what’s the last option?

Trick question: two options - a dual-fuel petrol/ethanol engine. Sound like an easy fit for a “station car,” if there’s any light at all. TRANSPORTATION TUESDAY: Antro Solo gets 150mpg at Inhabitat, in turn via AutoFiends. [singlepic=261,288,216,,right]

If this technology, and others like it, become competitive - whoever has developed it stands to make a lot of money - and contribute to a gradual drip-drip of oil company profits. (Today’s Times has a comment from a Saudi official, who articulated some anxiety that current price shock and anger might result in people remembering the current state of affairs, and reducing long-term demand for petroleum; we’ll try to post about this later - but - you read it here first - at least some of the Saudi leadership think’s we’re intelligent and adaptive. Flattery).

In watching the deluge in the Midwest, I’m remembering a description of the post-Katrina proliferation of dragonflies - a fortuitous turn that stopped the mosquito population from getting out of control. One robust response is mosquito netting, and this piece is from his excellent blog Cool Tools:

I hate mosquitoes. Serious gut-tightening allergic aversion. One bite at night and I am awake for hours, and I’ll itch for days. They’ll always find me, too. I’ve learned to ignore what natives say; there are mosquitoes around, and they do bite. When I travel in any remotely warm place, I pack my own mosquito netting. It weighs only a few ounces and can scrunch up small. It’s cheap, and lasts forever. I’m still using one I bought 30 years ago for $2. I like the boxy four-cornered variety to fit over a bed or sleeping bag. I tie a 6-foot long string to each corner; that usually enables me to attach the string somewhere to keep the net elevated at night. I tie it to trees if I am camping without a tent.

I haven’t figured out why more people don’t pack their own. Mine has saved my life more than once. Mostly by allowing me to sleep soundly, but also because with it I avoid mosquito-borne diseases in areas they are common. Studies have shown that sleeping in a net is more effective at preventing malaria than taking prophylactic drugs. I insist my family use netting while we travel in the heat overseas. A quick search led me to Coleman as the least expensive source for a one-person camp-style box net.

I’m afraid that mosquito netting may be added to the list of things that FEMA won’t provide - although if FEMA puts itself out of business by zeroing out that list, we’ll be forced to address the issue - federally and otherwise.

The New York Times published three articles in one day about fiscal impropriety, abuse of power, or incompetence of the Bush Administration.

On the front page, James Risen writes “Army Overseer Tells of Ouster Over KBR Stir.” Charles Smith says he was fired from his job with the Army for refusing to approve paying more than $1 Billion to KBR after “Army auditors had determined that KBR lacked credible data or records for more than $1 billion.” Smith, an employee of the Army for 31 years, was quoted in The Times saying “the money going to KBR was money being taken away from the troops, and I wasn’t going to do that.” This is another case of firing the whistle-blower. As a patriot, it makes my blood boil.

According to Risen, the Pentagon has recently awarded KBR a 10 year, $150 Billion contract in Iraq, which indicates that we will be in Iraq for another 10 years.

Eric Lichtblau wrote “Grand Jury Said to Look at Attorneys’ Dismissals” that Justice Deptartment Prosecutors are using a grand jury to investigate criminal accusations that grew from the dismissals of nine United States attorneys. Some employees in the civil rights division of the Justice Department have said that they were given a “political litmus test.” The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Bradley Schlozman, acting head of the civil rights division may be the subject of a “grand jury referral” focusing on perjury charges. Schlozman admitted to Congress that he had bragged about his success in politicizing the Justice Department. Alberto Gonzales, the former Attorney General, may also have committed perjury in his testimony about wireless eavesdropping by the National Security Agency.

As a patriot, this too makes my blood boil. The Government of the United States has always been subordinate to The Law, not The Party. This is the United States, not Communist China, Soviet Russia, Baathist Syria, or Saddam’s Iraq.

The Times also carried Judge Backs “White House in Dispute over E-Mail” a story by the Associated Press reporting the decision, by Judge Coleen Kollar-Kotelly, that the White House Office of Administration is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. Since its creation, in 1978, the Office of Administration has responded to Freedom of Information requests. The White House has acknowledged problems with it’s e-mail system, while saying that any missing e-mail messages can be found on backup tapes. In a related matter, a judge is considering whether to instruct the Executive Office of the President on steps it must take to safeguard electronic messages. I am not a lawyer, however, I think that Judge Kollar-Kotelly is wrong. If she is making law, as a judicial activist, at least she is doing so legally.

These articles are reproduced below.

From Toolmonger’s excellent post on Halligan tools, When You’re Outside And Need To Get Inside

When you absolutely positively need to be inside a building two minutes ago, you need a Mini Pro-Bar. Fire and rescue crews commonly reach for this Halligan-type tool as a one-stop multi-tool for forcing entry into a building.

Whether you need to snap padlocks, rip down plaster, rip out recessed or flush cylinder locks, or pry open doors, the Mini Pro-Bar has you covered. Made from 4130 aircraft steel, the knurled shaft recesses into both the fork and adz/pike ends and is heat-pressed and welded. The adz and fork also double as nail pullers and gas shut-off tools.

Fire Hooks Unlimited sells the Min Pro-Bar in two versions: the 16? bar weighing 3-1/4 lbs and the 20? bar weighing 3-1/2 lbs.  Either Mini Pro-Bar will run you about $75 — getting caught with one in your trunk while wearing a black ski mask will probably cost you a bit more than that.

Toolmonger’s post has, as always, good pricing and  source information.

To engage in a small amount of local chauvinism, the Halligan tool is named for Hugh Halligan, its designer, First Deputy Chief, FDNY. As is the Kelly Tool,  “named after its designer, Captain John F. Kelly of H&L Company 163 (FDNY). ” (Quoting Wikipedia article on Kelly Tool, accessed 16 June 2007).

The Kelly, Halligan, Denver Tool and K-Tool are all familiar to volunteer firefighters and other first responders - and part of the training, and usable and available tools of CERTs and other community-based groups. As we’ve seen in reports from Iowa, freeing a trapped person or animals from a flooded house has frustrated a number of people trying to rescue their own neighbors. We propose that perhaps these tools, and others, shouldn’t solely be in the province of professional responders.

The New York Times gets it right, but has trouble with math.

The Times’ editorial, “R.I.P. to the S.U.V.“, June 17, has the basics, but their numbers are wrong. Small cars like the Honda Civic emit about one quarter of the greenhouse gases per mile compared to trucks like the Ford F 150 and GM Hummer. GM doesn’t publish EPA milage estimates for the Hummer, but reports in the blogosphere peg them at 8 to 12 mpg. Assuming 10 mpg, driving 15,000 miles requires 1500 gallons of fuel. At $4 per gallon, that’s $6,000. The Times said $4,300 for the Hummer.

The EPA estimates that the Honda Civic EX gets 32 mpg city and 40 mpg highway. Taking the average of 36 mpg to drive 15,000 miles would require 417 gallons at a cost of $1,668 - about one quarter of the gas, and the costs to drive a Hummer. (The Times said $2,100 for the Civic.) This should be obvious - the Civic gets close to four times the mileage, therefore gas costs are close to one fourth those of the Hummer. Both vehicles would require the same number of oil changes, but with bigger engines that use more oil; these too cost more for the Hummer than for the Civic. And because the Hummer costs more to buy and to repair, insurance costs are higher.

The Prius, which gets 45 to 50 mpg, costs less to run than the Civic.   To drive those 15,000 miles at at 47.5 mpg would burn 316 gallons. At a cost of $4 per gallon, it would set you back $1,264.

Looked at another way, a 10 mile commute in a Hummer would cost 1 gallon, $4 each way, $8 per day, $40 per week.  In a CIVIC it will cost about $2.22 per day and $11 per week.  In a Prius, about $1.68 per day and $8.42 per week.

There is one area where the Hummer is better than the Civic - since it is so much bigger and heavier, its scrap metal value is higher.

Liquid Reflector is a reflective paint - available in five colors and a clear version, and, according to the manufacturer, yields a fine surface and high reflectivity. (Note: the reflected light is white, regardless of the visible color on the surface). We’d like to test some of this - see how it holds up - and whether its reflectivity would be affected by polyurethane or other transparent protective sealants.

The elegance of reflective materials, of course, is that they’re not dependent on electricity, and, wherever placed, they work when/as needed.

Via Toolmonger.

Once again, the Times demonstrates its outstanding roster of reporters who, when left to sort out a complex and opaque situation, can explain and illuminate.  Sabrina Tavernise’s piece in yesterday’s paper shows what happens when corruption and a failure to ignore the principles of crop rotation - anyone remember George Washington Carver? - combine to form, in effect, a region’s “agricultural policy.” Old Farming Habits Leave Uzbekistan a Legacy of Salt

Read that - think about the Midwestern floods - and wonder about near-to-medium term food prices.

Inside Transit has a report and images of the new Shanghai maglev train. (AMTRAK, Washington D.C. to New Yor runs at  peak speed, 200 mph, for only a few minutes - in effect a novelty or a capability demonstration).  Check out the post on Inside Transit here.

The BBC reports that NATO is calling the Taliban attack on a prison in Kandahar - releasing 900 inmates, under half of them members of the Taliban - is an “isolated incident.” One supposes that this probably is better for Taliban morale, and from their point of view, might be thought a “major tactical breakthrough” or a “show of strength.” More from the BBC report after the jump:

Cryptogon points out this piece in the Times which suggests that the Saudis are producing at exceptionally high capacity, trying to limit price increases. From  Plan Would Lift Saudi Oil Output, from the June 14th times:

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is planning to increase its output next month by about a half-million barrels a day, according to analysts and oil traders who have been briefed by Saudi officials.

The increase could bring Saudi output to a production level of 10 million barrels a day, which, if sustained, would be the kingdom’s highest ever. The move was seen as a sign that the Saudis are becoming increasingly nervous about both the political and economic effect of high oil prices. In recent weeks, soaring fuel costs have incited demonstrations and protests from Italy to Indonesia.

Saudi Arabia is currently pumping 9.45 million barrels a day, which is an increase of about 300,000 barrels from last month.

While they are reaping record profits, the Saudis are concerned that today’s record prices might eventually damp economic growth and lead to lower oil demand, as is already happening in the United States and other developed countries. The current prices are also making alternative fuels more viable, threatening the long-term prospects of the oil-based economy.

Toyota promises plugin-hybrid by 2010, according to Chuck Squatriglia on Wired’s Autopia:

It’s no secret Toyota’s been working on a plug-in hybrid to compete against the forthcoming Chevrolet Volt, but Wednesday’s announcement sets a firm deadline and makes it clear Toyota has no plans of ceding the green mantle to General Motors. It also underscores how quickly the race to build a viable mass-market electric car is heating up.

The company’s ambitious “low-carbon” agenda includes cranking out 1 million hybrids a year and eventually offering hybrid versions of every model it sells. In the short-term, Toyota says it will produce more fuel efficient gasoline and diesel engines and push alternative fuels like cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel. It’s also pumping big money into lithium-ion batteries. With fuel prices going through the roof and auto sales going through the floor because of it, Toyota president Katsuaki Watanabe says the auto industry has no choice but to move beyond petroleum.

“Without focusing on measures to address global warming and energy issues, there can be no future for our auto business,” he told reporters in Tokyo, adding, “Our view is that oil production will peak in the near future. We need to develop power train(s) for alternative energy sources.”

Watanabe’s reference to peak oil echoes that of GM CEO Rick Wagoner, who in explaining the company’s decision to shut down four truck factories said rising fuel prices and mounting demand for efficient cars are “structural, not cyclical.” In other words, the two biggest automakers in the world realize petroleum’s days are numbered.