Monthly Archives: October 2009

Systems Thinking and Politics, or Rachel Carson and Donella Meadows meet The Frankenstein Monster

The Frankenstein Monster as interpreted by Boris Karloff may have been a big guy who didn’t know his own strength – again unbalanced reinforcing loops. As interpreted by Mel Brooks he was just misunderstood. Once those reinforcing loops were balanced – put the big lug in a tux – all hell didn’t break loose.

Frankenstein_monster_Boris_KarloffSystems Thinking

is a framework and a toolkit (check out Stella and i Think from I See Systems ) with which ecologists and ecological economists can model the real world of the carbon and hydrologic cycles, ecosystems and economic “bubbles.” But how do we model systems that are difficult to quantify? Is it science fiction, as in the psychohistorians of Asimov’s Foundation Series ( e-book )? The actions of the government of the United States have profound effects on this country and the world. Can we use Systems Thinking to model political movements? Did Bill Clinton and James Carville, George W. Bush and Karl Rove and Barack Obama, David Axelrod and Dan Plouffe use  Systems Thinking to create a balancing feedback mechanism and win an election? Could they have?

As we were taught in high school, the Constitution set up a system of government of three balanced branches. The “checks and balances” of the Executive enforcing the laws written by the Legislative and interpreted by the Judiciary. This is a system with balancing feedback mechanisms.

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Chevy Volt 230 mpg Car

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GRM) announced Tuesday, August 11, 2009 that the Chevrolet Volt, to be available as a 2011 model in 2010, is expected to achieve city fuel economy of 230 miles per gallon (Press Release, Official Site – GM-Volt.com).

2011 Chevy Volt

2011 Chevy Volt

The Volt is powered by an electric motor and battery pack with a 40-mile range. After that, a small internal combustion engine kicks in to generate electricity for a range of up to of 300 miles. “From the data we’ve seen, many Volt drivers may be able to be in pure electric mode on a daily basis without having to use any gas,” said GM CEO Fritz Henderson. He also said, “The key to high-mileage performance is for a Volt driver to plug into the electric grid at least once each day.”

They used to say “What’s good for GM is good for America.”

This is true today, given that the Federal government – the taxpayers – owns a significant stake in General Motors.  But if it gets 230 miles per gallon, it will sell, and The Volt will be good for GM, good for America, and good for the world.

Chivalry is Alive and Well On Campus

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, 2:00 AM. New Brunswick, NJ. A young man, let’s call him Al, came upon a 17 year-old young woman, who’s name is omitted to preserve her anonymity and dignity. She was in a state of staggering intoxication. Al called his friend Bill, who knew the girl, knew her parents, and took responsibility for her. Bill called an ambulance, rode in it with the girl to the hospital, called her parents, sat with her in the emergency room, from 2:30 to 8:00 AM, at which time the girl’s parents arrived, before returning to his room at the Alpha Beta lodge of Sigma Delta.

The girl’s Blood Alcohol Level, BAC, was 0.275. A BAC of 0.300, 16% below the level of surgical anaesthesia (BRAD / Wikipedia ),  can turn lead to a coma, which can be fatal. (Note that a BAC of 0.080 is the legal definition of intoxication for the purposes of a drunken driving offense. The girl’s was 3 1/2 times the legal limit.) Therefore it is not a stretch to consider that at a cost to Bill of a night’s sleep, he and Al saved the girl’s life.

The editors of Popular Logistics are to know Bill. We know the girl’s parents will always remember this and will be forever grateful. We hope the girl has learned something as well.

Population Growth 1939 to 2009.

Before World War II the world population was about 2.3 billion and the world Jewish population was about 17 million. Today the world population is about 6.7 billion and the world Jewish population is about 13 million.

Population 1939 - Present

Population 1939 - Present

In World War II the world lost 50 to 70 million people, mostly Europeans, including 6 million Jews, which was 35.3% of the world Jewish population. Since 1940, the world human population has grown by about 300% to 6.7 billion, mostly outside of Europe. The  Jewish population, however, at about 13 million, while it has grown by roughly 18% since 1945, is roughly 24% lower than it was in 1939. If the world’s Jewish population grew at the same rate as the general population, we would expect a population of 51 million people, not 13 million.

Human population: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html.
Jewish population: http://www.simpletoremember.com/vitals/world-jewish-population.htm.

Please note that this drawing is not to scale. The time slice between 1939 and 1945 represents 6 years; that between 1945 and 2009 is 64 years. The Jewish population is in the millions, the world population is in the billions, or thousands of millions. The growth in world population is exponential, not linear.  However, the picture seems to be a useful representation.

The Great Ocean Conveyor

The “Seven Seas” are really one big interconnected ocean. While many people may have been unconscious of this fact, we, meaning humanity, have known this since 1522, when, led by Juan Sebastian Elcano, the 18 remaining members of Ferdinand Magellan’s 237 man crew completed the circumnavigation of the earth, begun in 1519.  This lesson has been reinforced by images from aircraft, spacecraft, and satellites.  We have also known about the “Southern Oscillation (SO) since the 1920’s. As described by Sir Gilbert Walker, “When pressure is high in the Pacific Ocean, it tends to be low in the Indian Ocean from Africa to Australia.”

conveyorWe also now are beginning to understand that the there is a tremendous current, the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, which traverses the Pacific, the Indian, and the Atlantic, which interacts with winds, which maintains the Gulf Stream, and transports energy towards the poles. For more on this, including the image, above, see the National Weather Service and NOAA web pages . The red band is warmer water near the surface; the dark blue band is denser, colder, water that runs deeper.

A global circulation which extends to the depths of the sea called the Great Ocean Conveyor. Also called the thermohaline circulation, it is driven by differences in the density of the sea water which is controlled by temperature (thermal) and salinity (haline).

The Gulf Stream is part of the Great Ocean Conveyor, which is why the waters off the Jersey Shore are always warm in September. How does this effect climate change and climate stabilization? And how do El Nino and La Nina effect the Great Ocean Conveyor? I don’t know. I think the Great Ocean Conveyor serves to dampen the magnitude of fluctuations in weather and changes in the climate. However, I also think there is evidence to suggest that El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been more pronounced in recent years, and these may have be related to the earthquakes that triggered the tsunamis that hit Indonesia in 2004 and 2009.

Stay tuned.