Tag Archives: China

Dragon, Bear, and Eagle or China, Russia, and the United States

Dragon breathing fire, knight protecting himself with shield. Image incompatible with the laws of physics. The fire should melt the shield and incinerate the knight. But the energy in the fire should propel the dragon backwards. And what is it’s power source? Is it nuclear or chemical? Either way, it could not fly, or breathe. And would not be interested in gold.

The dragon flies, breathes fire, wipes out towns. It is a symbol of awesome power and unbridled greed. Yet, in the traditional American and English stories the dragon is defeated; outwitted by little hobbits, killed by dour warriors and noble knights. In the brutal dystopian world of “Game of Thrones“ and “House of Dragon,” its prequel (neither of which I have seen), dragons are tamed by humans more cruel and more ruthless who wield magic. But above all else, aside from the large monitor lizard that is the Komodo Dragon, the dragon illustrated above is legend, myth, and fantasy; it is not real.

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BEIJING, CHINA - JANUARY 23: A tourist and her daughter wearing the masks visit the Tiananmen Square at dangerous levels of air pollution on January 23, 2013 in Beijing, China. The air quality in Beijing on Wednesday hit serious levels again, as smog blanketed the city. (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

BEIJING, CHINA – Tiananmen Square, January 23, 2013 (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

Forbes, here, and reports that China is building a  200 MW solar farm in the Gobi Desert (Clean Technica, here, IFL Science, here.

However, Chinese authorities plan for carbon emissions to peak in 2030 – that is to keep increasing until 2030.  Bellona, here, reported that Chinese authorities plan to increase renewables to 20% by 2030. This will include 200 GW of Wind, 100 GW of Solar. The plan is also to increase burning of Natural Gas to 10% of their electricity capacity, and to focus on coal with carbon capture. (Apparently the Chinese authorities don’t seem to realize how much carbon sequestration really costs. It is, as they say in New England, “wicked expensive.”)

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China Air Pollution: The Bitter Years Return?

China Air Pollution 中国空气污染

The Bitter Years Return 的苦涩年返回

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

During the “Bitter Years” from 1958 to 1962, an estimated 15 to 43 million people died of starvation in China (wikipedia). Mao, who ate well during that time, did not want help from the west. Fast forward to today. It has been reported that due to air pollution, an estimated 650,000 people died in China in 2006, and another estimated 1.2 million died in 2010. Knowing these 2 data points of this dynamic system, we can plot a curve. The blue line assumes a linear curve, the red line, the exponential uptick of a sigmoid curve.  Assuming reinforcing feedback, the red curve is more likely.

The three most important questions are

  1. “How serious is the air pollution?”
  2. “What will it take before the Chinese government acts?”
  3. “What will be the delay between action and results?

The short answer to Question 1 is “Very.” If this is as serious as I think it is, the challenge for the government of the People’s Republic of China as for other governments, will be to stop polluting and clean up the pollution it has allowed to be dispersed into the bio-humano-sphere. However, this conflicts with the apparent goal of the Chinese government to be the world’s biggest producer of stuff without regard to pollution.

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Forget the Great Wall – Meet The Great Haze

Beijing from space, courtesy NASA

Image 1. Beijing from space, Jan., 2013, courtesy NASA

忘了长城 – 我们现在有大的雾度

“Forget the Great Wall – We Now Have the Great Haze”

– Translation by Google

In the 1960’s and 1970’s astronauts showed that we could see the Great Wall of China from space. Today, it’s the Great Haze of China that we can see from space .  The New York Daily News, here, published this image, taken by NASA in January 12, 2013 (here) when the Air Quality Index, AQI, reached 775.

The AQI was established by the US EPA. AQI above 300 is considered dangerous. AQI at 775 is probably deadly.

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“Grandpa” Wen Worth $2.7 Billion: NY Times Blocked in China

Wen Jaibao

Wen Jaibao,  NY Times, 10/25/12

Guangxi River

Guangxi River

Child in Linfen

Child in Linfen

 

The NY Times reported, here, that Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister of China, has amassed approximately $2.7 billion, and so according to the Guardian, here, access to the Times has been blocked within China by the “Great Firewall of China.” In term’s of China’s population, Wen’s family fortune is approximately $2.08 for every man, woman, and child in China. This is ¥12.978 , at current rate of ¥6.2465 CNY to the $1.0 USD. The Times also details the Wen family empire, here.

Nicknamed “Grandpa Wen” because of his reputation of concern for the underprivileged, or, in Marxist parlance “The Proletariat,” for there are no “Privileged” people in the People’s Republic, Wen has called official corruption a threat to the ruling Communist Party. He should know. This is what happens when a disregard for rights is coupled with tremendous power. However, given that the Chinese leadership has embraced a form of capitalism, wherein the people who run the state own or manages the corporations that produce things or allocate resources, it must be noted that China seems to be following a fascist political and economic model, rather than a Marxist or Maoist communist political and economic model.

What would Mao say? Hard to tell. He ate well during the “Bitter Years” from 1958 to 1962, when an estimated 15 to 43 million people died (wikipedia).

Political and economic theory aside, when coupled with what we know about air and water pollution, working conditions in Chinese factories and coal mines, official attitudes toward intellectual property (Business Week / Popular Logistics) , the challenge posed by a demographic imbalance of a population of 700 million men and 600 million women, cultural attitudes towards homosexuality, prostitution, and HIV AIDS; the long term prospects for socio-economic stability in China seem low.

 

A small boy walks through the smog of Donglu, on the outskirts of Linfen, where villagers have difficulty in selling their crops because of the severe pollution. Linfen, a city of about 4.3 million, is one of the most polluted cities in the world. China's increasingly polluted environment is largely a result of the country's rapid development and consequently a large increase in primary energy consumption, which is almost entirely produced by burning coal.

Linfen, a city of about 4.3 million, one of the most polluted cities in the world. Courtesy Greenpeace.

Air and water pollution in China, as documented by Elizabeth Economy in The River Runs Black, in 2004, ISBN: 978-080-1442-20-9, available at the Strand Bookstore, here, and also documented by Greenpeace here and here here and here, present tremendous long term threats to the people of China to breathe, drink, and to eat.

River Guangxi

River Guangxi

As a public service to the people who make smart phones, laptops, routers, and clothing for use here in the USA, the NY Times article is reproduced below.  It is not the policy of this blog to quote entire articles. However, given that the entire article – and the entire web-site – is blocked from within “The Great Firewall,” we have made an exception in this case. We trust that the writers, editors, and publishers of The Times will understand. Continue reading

Cyberwar: USA & Israel v Iran, China v USA, Russia v The World

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz.

Focusing on “Operation Olympic Games,” the US efforts behind the Flame and Stuxnet cyber attacks, Mischa Glenny, in “A Weapon We Can’t Control,” an op-ed in the NY Times, 6/24/12, says the U.S. has “fired the starting gun in a new arms race … cyberweaponry.” However, Mr. Glenny ignores efforts by hackers in China and from the former Soviet Union.

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Outsourcing – A Communist Plot? Remember Khrushchev?

Image of DEC VAX chip, showing Cryllic inscription "When you care enough to steal the best."

CVAX ... When you care enough to steal the very best

Mark Landler and Edward Wong, covering Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s trip to the US, in the New York Times, Feb 14, With Edge, U.S. Greets China’s Heir Apparent, wrote,

“On the list of American concerns, Mr. Biden said, were China’s artificially depressed currency and conditions imposed by the Chinese that require foreign companies to turn over technology in return for doing business in China. He raised the issue of jailed Chinese dissidents and … Syria”

In Inflaming Trademark Dispute, Second City in China Halts Sales of the iPad, published in the NY Times, Feb. 14, 2012, Michael Wines wrote:

“The authorities in a second Chinese city have begun seizing iPads from local retailers in an escalating trademark dispute between Apple and Proview Technology. … The seizures follow a ruling in December in which a court in Shenzhen dismissed Apple’s contention that it owned the iPad name in China. … Proview has also made a filing with the General Administration of Customs in China putting Apple on notice that the company could seek to block the export of iPads, should Proview’s ownership claims be upheld. … the seizures and the filing are warnings by Proview of the havoc it could wreak unless Apple agrees to pay a large fee to settle the trademark fight. … Paradoxically, China’s intellectual property laws are so sweeping that they allow the government to ban the worldwide sale of any made-in-China product that is found to violate a Chinese patent, trademark or other protection.”

Remember back during the cold war, when Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev said “Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you.” ( various quotes by Kruschev).

And later when the American computer company DEC, in response to reverse engineering of VAX computers by Soviet computer scientists inscribed, in Russian,“CVAX, … When you care enough to steal the very best” on the CVAX microprocessors. (Links: TRAILING EDGE.com, CNET, FSU.edu.)

Suppose Khrushchev had called John Kennedy, on the occasion of John Glenn’s orbit in the Friendship 7, February 20, 1962,  here, or Leonid Brezhnev had called Richard Nixon, after Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and Michael Collins returned from the moon in Apollo 11, July 24, 1969, Apollo 11, or Mikhail Gorbachev had answered Ronald Reagan’s call to “tear down this wall,” and said

“Mister President, I have business proposition for you: Let us to build your consumer goods. We have factories with skilled laborers. Our workers are like children, so eager to please. (Ok, they are children.) We can more or less match your quality control. We can deliver on time. And we do this for pennies on the dollar – pennie!

“All we ask is you give us designs for the products, and computer software source code for computers and telecommunications de-wices we assemble. It will be great Soviet / American partnership.”

Presidents Kennedy, Nixon, and Reagan would have said

“Give you our designs? Our software? That’s our intellectual property? Are you nuts? That would be crazy!”

Premiers Khrushchev, Brezhnev, and Gorbachev might have answered,

“But our labor costs are much lower than yours. We have workers in factories, happy workers in the ‘Worker’s Paradise.’ Why. workers in our factories in Siberia work 7 days a week. And for little more than food and water. Go on strike? Never! (If they did we would shoot them.) You won’t have to pay them union scale or retirement benefits.”

Presidents Kennedy, Nixon, and Reagan would still have said

“Give you our designs? Our software? Our intellectual property? So you can use children and slave labor to build our consumer goods? That would destroy our middle class. That would be nuts.”

And they would have been right.

So how exactly are the Chinese communists different from the Soviet communists?

We wouldn’t outsource to the Soviet Union. Why are we outsourcing to China?

Reality, Pseudo-Reality, and China

Does Freedom of Speech imply the responsibility to speak honestly – even when what is not what people want to hear?  John Ehrenfeld, on his blog, in discussing the US Presidential Campaign, noted (here),

“[M]y concerns and consternation at the virtually complete absence of truth from [a GOP debate in New hampshire]. Not only was the truth gone, but the participants appeared almost gleeful about speaking freed from the constraints that truth-telling creates…. I recall an interview with Eric Fehrnstrom, Mitt Romney’s campaign manager, who said, in response to a question about the untruths being uttered by Romney, that this was none of his concern; it was up to the media to provide the facts.”

I addressed this in a wry manner with “Ridin’ the Magic Carpet” on XB Cold Fingers.

Richard Seireeni, on the Chelsea Green site (here), suggests that our biggest challenges, perhaps threats, come from outsoucing manufacturing of American branded consumer goods to China.

And in the New York Times, Paul Krugman explains how America is not a corporation (here).

For one thing, there’s no simple bottom line. For another, the economy is vastly more complex than even the largest private company.

Most relevant…, however, is … giant corporations sell the great bulk of what they produce to other people, not to their own employees — whereas even small countries sell most of what they produce to themselves, and big countries like America are overwhelmingly their own main customers.

Yes, there’s a global economy. But six out of seven American workers are employed in service industries, which are largely insulated from international competition, and even our manufacturers sell much of their production to the domestic market.

And the fact that we mostly sell to ourselves makes an enormous difference when you think about policy.

Consider what happens when a business engages in ruthless cost-cutting. From the point of view of the firm’s owners (though not its workers), the more costs that are cut, the better. Any dollars taken off the cost side of the balance sheet are added to the bottom line.

But the story is very different when a government slashes spending in the face of a depressed economy. Look at Greece, Spain, and Ireland, all of which have adopted harsh austerity policies. In each case, unemployment soared, because cuts in government spending mainly hit domestic producers. And, in each case, the reduction in budget deficits was much less than expected, because tax receipts fell as output and employment collapsed.

Ehrenfeld, observing the irony in a GOP Debate on the day of Vaclav Havel’s death, wrote about truth;

Havel’s signature accomplishment [was] pointing out that people have to live in truth or lose their freedom…

Truth, as Havel says, is essential to our existence as a free people at all times, but perhaps even more now as we become ever more aware of the complexity of the world we live in. Ideologies are the epitome of denial of the interconnectedness of this world, where ties grow more in number and strength everyday. Actions here have effect in places and times we do not expect or ignore. Are we really going to bomb away the so-called threat of Iranian nuclear weapons with no other consequences? Will freeing the market from all government oversight and restraints create wealth for everybody when the results of the last few decades show us the exact opposite? Ideologies, either from the left or right, are all dangerous, but our two-party system and the means their leaders communicate with us pushes themes into ideological positions frequently compressed into tiny sound bites or political ads….

There are many, many truths out there that are getting clobbered. If any of these men (no women left) are elected, they will be expected to act in accordance to these statements, ignoring what they find. Obama was faced with a financial crisis and its fallout on the economy as he moved in. He certainly was not the creator of these problems. It is interesting and ironic that the name Bush, on whose watch these problems started to arise, has been barely mentioned during this campaign, and not at all during these recent “debates.” I continue to put quotes around this word as real debates require some depth in discussing issues and solutions. Truthfulness would require putting the current messes into context, a least attempting to do so. I admit that would be difficult because the big messes are all a result of our failures to recognize complexity and act accordingly.

Richard Seireeni on the Chelsea Green site (here) wrote:

In the run up to the Republican Convention, we’ve heard everything and nothing. We’ve heard Newt, Mitt and Ron go on about issues that have little if any impact on jobs and national security, but not a single word about the real reason we have massive and permanent unemployment….In 2010, we imported 364 billion dollars in goods from China while we exported only 91 billion to them. That is nearly a 4 to 1 trade imbalance….

The Chinese people have become admirable competitors, but their hybrid Totalitarian-Capitalist government is not our friend. They don’t share our philosophies on human rights, labor rights, or geo-political issues, like containment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In fact, China is a major importer of Iranian oil, in opposition to U.S.-sponsored trade restrictions, and has probably received access to our recently downed drone aircraft as a reward.

While GOP candidates are preoccupied with Terrorism and Obamacare, the People’s Liberation Army has been quietly developing a new advanced stealth fighter, Predator-style drones, the first in a planned fleet of blue water aircraft carriers, an advanced rocket and space program, and a growing nuclear arsenal. Those cheap consumer products have turned China into a super power one purchase at a time. Every time an American patriot buys a Made-in-China product at Walmart, he or she is investing in China’s military expansion, which forces us to invest more in our military to counter the threat.

 

So What If We Default?

Tweet Follow LJF97 on Twitter   Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

Hong Lei, spokesman for foreign affairs of China

Chinese Spokesman for Foreign Affairs

If, on August 2, 2011, the United States defaults on various debt obligations, then historians may well consider that date as the date on which the United States of America ceases to occupy the position it has held since the end of World War II.  However, August 2, 2011, may be the end of the beginning. If so, it will mark a point of inflection in a curve that maps processes that has been in motion for a long time. The trends in personal debt, bankruptcy, home foreclosures, unemployment, and the disparity of income and assets between the wealthiest 10% of the population and the other 90% have developed over years.

July 14, 2011, Bastille Day in France, may be considered to mark the coming of age of the successor to the United States as the superpower of the 21st Century, and that would be China.  In “China Urges U.S. to Protect Creditors by Raising Debt,” Bettina Wassener in Hong Kong and Matthew Saltmarsh in Paris report in the New York Times, that “Hong Lei, a Chinese foreign affairs spokesman, urged the United States to protect the interests of foreign investors.” As one of the United States’s biggest creditors, China, which holds over $1.0 Trillion in US Treasury bills, “urged American policy makers on Thursday to act to protect investors’ interests, highlighting rising concerns around the globe about the protracted budget talks taking place in Washington.”

These mark gradual processes of waxing and waning of cultures and economies. These did not happen overnight. It did not happen with the election and inauguration of Barack Obama as 44th President of the United States, as spokespeople of the Tea-Republican Party, and News Corp (some of whom are in both) may assert. Nor did it happen in 2000 with the Presidential Election, the Supreme Court decision which decided the election, and the subsequent inauguration of George W. Bush as the 43rd President.

The development of the US as a superpower at the end of World War II was facilitated by the election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt to the office of President in 1932, and his reelections in ’36, ’40, and ’44.  However, it was less President Roosevelt himself than the progressive economic policies of the New Deal that he put in place.  Similarly the descent from superpower status and the crumbling of American infrastructure have been slow processes. Perhaps it began with the conflation of news and entertainment and the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 under President Reagan.

In order, therefore, for the United States to continue to be a superpower, we need to return to the progressive economic policies that build infrastructure and finance infrastructure projects by taxes, rather than by mortgaging our children’s futures to potentially unfriendly foreign powers such as Communist China.

The wisest, but least easy course would be to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire and increase taxes. Everyone should pay their fair share.

Finally,

If we increase the debt ceiling, will China continue to buy U.S. Treasury Bills?

China holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury Bills, about 7.5% of our debt.  Is that in our national interest?

Google v China, and Baidu v Iran

Google announced that it believes that China is responsible for cyber attacks on Google China. Google is now unwilling to censor search results in China (The Guardian).

Google China

Google China. by Phillipe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, about to begin a tour of Asia, said “We have been briefed by Google on these allegations, which raise very serious concerns and questions. We look to the Chinese government for an explanation.” (The Guardian / NY Times).On their blog (here), in a post entitled “A New Approach to China” Google said:

“In mid-December, we detected a highly sophisticated and targeted attack on our corporate infrastructure originating from China that resulted in the theft of intellectual property from Google.” Continue reading

Copenhagen, India, China, the US, and GAIA

I’m beginning to think that Copenhagen was what it had to be, what it could only be. It fulfilled its Buddha-nature. Thus, I don’t consider it a failure. Nor do I consider it a success. It was what it was, what it could have been, what it had to be:

A gathering of emissaries from the 64 corners of the earth.

Courtesy of NASA

Earth From Space, Copyright NASA

Isaac Asimov observed in Foundation (ISBN: 978-0553293357) that “diplomacy, is the art of speaking for a long time without saying anything.” Most of the diplomats in Copenhagen had multiple agendas. Unfortunately for billions of the world’s poorest, the public agendas of sustainability and the abstract “Gaia Hypothesis” were distant fourth and fifth behind the private agendas of power, money, and influence.

The inconvenient truth is that much of Bangla Desh, California, Louisiana, Southern Florida will disappear, submerged, like the mythical Atlantis. China will continue to build 2 coal plants per week. And people will die.

But disregarding this notion, a Chinese diplomat Continue reading

Coal Miner Deaths

In China, 407 Coal Miners Died THIS YEAR

. 104 Died THIS WEEKEND in the Xinxing coal mine – described by Chinese authorities as a SAFE

mine. 528 miners were underground at the time of the explosion – in which 19.7% of the miners were killed! China Mine Disaster Continue reading

As Economic Activity Declines, China’s Energy Consumption Follows

Andrews S. Revkin reports on Dot Earth that Chinese energy use has declined more or less following economic activity.

chart by Richard K. Morse, Stanford University; data by Statistical Bureau, China

Good news or bad? Depends on what’s happening with Chinese energy infrastructure while its economy contracts. Our guess – and it’s a guess – is that high energy prices provide an incentive to switch to clean, sustainable energy. Air quality, of course, is inversely proportional to the use of fossil fuels and nuclear power.

The Dot Earth Project (at our hometown paper) – and Mr. Revkin’s work– are supported in part by the John Simon Guggenheim Project. We’ll try to keep up with it.

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