Tag Archives: Oracle

Announcing the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology

Hot on the heels of the December 21, 2012 launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Sustainable Energy, here, up 22.36%, I am announcing the launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology. Roughly $1.0 million in Apple, Google, HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.(Their investor relations pages are AppleGoogle, HPIBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.)

 

Tech Virtual Portfolio
Item Stock Price Shares Total
1 Apple $446 2,242 $1,000,000
2 Google $795 1,258 $1,000,000
3 HP $17 59,559 $1,000,000
4 IBM $198 5,051 $1,000,000
5 Intel $20 50,000 $1,000,000
6 Microsoft $27 37,037 $1,000,000
7 Oracle $24 41,667 $1,000,000
total $7,000,000
Table 1. Acquisitions, Start of Business, 2/22/13

Generally speaking, here’s what I expect:

  • Apple, IBM: I expect to significantly outperform the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
  • Google: I expect to perform in line with the Dow Jones and S&P.
  • HP: An investment in HP is speculative. Whitman may turn the company around. The stock might wildly outperform the Dow & the S&P. As Gerstner might say, however, it’s hard to teach an elephant to dance. The stock may plummet.
  • Intel, Oracle, I don’t know enough to have an expectation.
  • Microsoft may become a leading indicator of the economy.  Thus, if the S&P does well, Microsoft may do better.

These are in table 2, below

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Apple at $665 per share – or $705 – or $1077

space-apple-logo

Apple, if it can be compared to Google, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle, should be priced at 665 per share. This analysis is simply based on Stock Price, Earnings per Share (EPS) and the Price Earnings ratio. or P/E. The average P/E of these companies is 15.08. If Apple’s stock was 15.08 times earnings, it would be 665. If you take Apple out of the mix, the average P/E becomes 16.01. At 16.01 times earnings, Apple’s stock price would be 705. And if priced like Google, $1077. Continue reading

Facebook IPO: The Sound of Bubbles Popping

Soap Bubble

Soap Bubble, by Irfan Mirza

 Facebook went public on Friday, May 18, 2012. Trading for FB opened at $42.025 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of $72.76 Billion. However, Facebook closed it’s first day as a publicly traded stock down 9.3% at $38.105 per share. On it’s second day, Monday, May 21, it opened at $36.53 per share and closed at $34.03 per share, dropping another 6.8%, and 19% from the opening price. It’s sliding is raising eyebrows in the financial media (Business Week, Chicago Tribune, Reuters).

A Bubble Popping, by Richard Heeks

Bubble Pop, by Richard Heeks

But the question may be less “Why is Facebook’s stock price dropping?” or “Who’s to blame?” than “What should be it’s price?

GMO‘s Jeremy Grantham talks about “Reversion to the Mean.” The mean, however, for a stock with 2 days of history is not statistically meaningful. So I compared it to Apple, Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, pulling data off of the Internet at Finance.Google.Com after the close of trading on Monday, May 21, 2012.

(Image Links: Soap Bubble & Bubble Pop)

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