Kamala Harris will win the U. S. Presidential election in 2024

New York, NY, 7/28/24. Updated, 8/30/24, 9/21/24. Allan Lichtman, whose model successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections, has made a preliminary projection that Kamala Harris will win the Presidential election in November, 2024.
 
I agree with his assessment. However, I think there are a few things that he misses in his preliminary analysis. First: The polls. According to Fox News, Harris has a higher favorability rating in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“Favoribility” is not votes – neither are polls. However, the national polls, reported by TheHill.com, as of 7/28/24, show Harris closing but slightly behind the twice-impeached failed insurrectionist with 34 Felony convictions.

Update: according to The Hill, as of 8/30/24, Harris leads Trump, 52.6 to 47.4. This matches the NY Times, 49 to 46. According to the NY Times, here, as of Sept. 21, 2024, Harris leads by 2 points nationally, and leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. According to TheHill.com, as of Thursday, Sept. 19, Harris and Trump were deadlocked nationally while Harris was up 4 points in Pennsylvania. (here). So the Polls are close.

Then, there’s Allen Lichtman.

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President Biden on the 80th Anniversary, what was left unsaid

President Biden spoke eloquently in Normandy, remarks by President Biden on the 80th Anniversary of D-Day, Normandy, France, honoring those who fought to free the world of the scourge of Nazism.  
However, I believe he should have added four (4) observations.  

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Israel v Hamas and The Jews v The World

Yesterday, February 10, 2024 was four months since Hamas invaded Israel.

The Gaza Metro, according to CNN, 10/28/23. 500 km, 311 miles of tunnels. Where is the outrage that $Billions of Aid that was supposed to go to schools, clothing, homes, hospitals, food, etc. was diverted – stolen – and used for tunnels and weapons?

If you want to help the people of Gaza then help them get rid of Hamas. Of course, they need to want this help.

And, rescue the Israelis and others held hostage by Hamas and Islamic Jihad (and Iran).

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Israel v Hamas – The Provocation

Member of Israel’s Communications Ministry praying in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 3, 2023.

February 10, 2024 was four months since Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza, killing 1200 people, raping and brutalizing women, beheading babies, kidnapping 240 people. We know that Hamas tortured some, probably all of the hostages they freed. We know that they killed some of the hostages; we don’t know how many.

HAMAS IS ATTEMPTING GENOCIDE.

This picture, an Israeli Jew praying, holding a Torah scroll in his hotel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is believed to have been the trigger, the provocation, but not the cause.

“For Hamas, Israel’s mere existence is a provocation,” – Avi Shavit.

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What’s Good for America is Good for GM

Dwight D. Eisenhower c1952 Copyright by Fabian Bachrach.

In 1953 President Eisenhower nominated Charles Wilson to be his Secretary of Defense. Wilson, then the President of General Motors, had overseen GM’s war production during World War II. During his confirmation hearings he was asked if he could make a decision that was bad for GM. His response is remembered as a classic example of arrogance – “What’s good for GM is good for America.”

However, that’s not exactly what he said.

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Solar v Corn to Ethanol

Writing for “Virginia Mercury,” Ivy Main says,

What is certain is that improvements in wind, solar, battery storage and electric vehicles will continue these technologies’ march to dominance, while fossil fuels become niche. Concerns about the land needs of renewable energy are overblown; you could power the entire U.S. with solar panels on just one-third of the more than 30 million acres currently devoted to growing corn for climate-unfriendly ethanol. Indeed, solar doesn’t even have to displace farming. Agrivoltaics is already making solar and agriculture compatible and creating money-saving synergies.  

I am sure she is correct. Consider the the logistics and life cycles of the PV Solar and Corn to Ethanol systems and the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The 2nd law basically “The entropy of the universe increases.” (Entropy is randomness or disorder. And this is high school physics.)

Imagine a building w a solar roof. The sun shines on the roof, and it powers the building (except at night or when it’s raining or snowing). One stop shopping. 

Imagine a corn to ethanol operation. 

  1. Plant corn. 
  2. Apply fertilizer. 
  3. Apply pesticides. 
  4. Repeat 2 and 3 as needed. 
  5. Harvest the corn. 
  6. Process it into ethanol. 
  7. Ship the ethanol to a facility where it is mixed into gasoline. 
  8. Ship the gas-methanol mixture to gas stations. 
  9. Repeat. 

Not quite as simple. 

Solar modules generate electricity by converting photons into electric current.
Ethanol farms convert photons into corn, which must be harvested, then processed. Growing the crop probably uses fertilizer and pesticides, because the corn to ethanol operations are probably not organic farms. The tractors required for planting, harvesting, etc require fuel, maintenance. The factories in which the corn is transformed into ethanol require power and maintenance, and if they have moving parts, lubricants. Transporting the ethanol requires tankers, pipelines, etc. 
Solar is one step. Corn to ethanol is multiple steps. Entropy is created, energy is lost in each step. (Energy is also lost in solar when 1) the direct current generated by a PV solar module is inverted into DC and 2) the electricity travels thru transmission lines.)
And PV Solar works with low maintenance for 20 to 30 years. While corn to ethanol planting, harvesting, processing need to be repeated every year.

Dragon, Bear, and Eagle or China, Russia, and the United States

Dragon breathing fire, knight protecting himself with shield. Image incompatible with the laws of physics. The fire should melt the shield and incinerate the knight. But the energy in the fire should propel the dragon backwards. And what is it’s power source? Is it nuclear or chemical? Either way, it could not fly, or breathe. And would not be interested in gold.

The dragon flies, breathes fire, wipes out towns. It is a symbol of awesome power and unbridled greed. Yet, in the traditional American and English stories the dragon is defeated; outwitted by little hobbits, killed by dour warriors and noble knights. In the brutal dystopian world of “Game of Thrones“ and “House of Dragon,” its prequel (neither of which I have seen), dragons are tamed by humans more cruel and more ruthless who wield magic. But above all else, aside from the large monitor lizard that is the Komodo Dragon, the dragon illustrated above is legend, myth, and fantasy; it is not real.

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine, after 9 months

Ukrainian forces are pushing Russian forces east, in retreat. Ukrainians are motivated to fight for their homes, their families, their lives. Russians with educations are motivated to flee Russia. Russian soldiers are motivated to fight by amount of stuff they can steal, the women and girls they can rape, the people they can execute, including their commanders.

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Boys will be boys. Girls will be girls. And Narcissists … well …

The NY Post‘s bottom of the page headline, “Florida Man Makes Announcement. Page 26” didn’t make it clear, but Donald Trump, announced on November 15, 2022 that he is running for President in 2024.

The fact that the Post wrote “Florida Man” not “Donald Trump,” “President Trump,” etc., speaks volumes. The twice-impeached 45th President of the United States, twice lost the popular vote, said COVID-19 is a hoax, suggested that people drink bleach to cure them of COVID, suggested that people take a drug used to treat intestinal parasites to cure COVID, tried to bribe Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, refused – and still refuses – to admit defeat and accept the results of the 2020 election, stole Top Secret documents related to US national security, and launched an insurrection to hold power.

Question 1 is what’s the worst that could happen.

Question 2 is what is likely to happen.

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Vogtle Update: Another Cost Overrun and Another Delay

The Vogtle nuclear complex

Back in June, 2022, the Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors, not shown above, each 1.215 Gigawatts of nameplate capacity was pegged at $34 Billion, or $14 per watt, here.

$34 Billion would buy roughly 17 – 20 Gigawatts of wind capacity or 12 – 15 Gigawatts of solar capacity today.

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Unsustainable Energy and Climate Reality

“Climate models,” according to Daniel Baer and Noah Gordon, in the Washington Post, here, “are complicated things. They must consider a staggering number of mathematical and physical variables to predict, for instance, how emitting a given amount of carbon dioxide will change the flows of air, water and heat between the atmosphere and the oceans. More sophisticated projections go further, showing how temperature changes will affect rainfall in a certain region, which in turn will affect crop yields and, as a result, the carbon cycle.”

However, as illustrated above, from “Climate.gov,” here, atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations have increased close to 50% since 1750, when they were under 280 ppm, to around 420 ppm today.

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Presidents and Dictators

A President

You can read a man like a book. His eyes, his smile, his body language reveal his character. How does he respond to adversity? Does he panic and blame others? Does he seek and listen to counsel and take action? Does he have a sense of humor? Can he take a joke?

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