Back in 1931, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“Assuming no important wars, and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or at least within sight of a solution, within a hundred years. This means that the economic problem is not – if we look into the future – the permanent problem of the human race.”  – John Maynard Keynes,  “Economic possibilities for our grand-children.’ In Essays in Persuasion, 1931.

Keynes wrote that wealth would grow because of compounded interest, and we would live off of the interest. This would fuel technical inventions and dramatically increase the standard of living for a stable, peace-loving world. He thought boredom would become the permanent problem of the human race.

We would become a world populated by dilettantes flitting from party to party; a world of people like Prince Charles and Paris Hilton, although most, presumably, would not be famous and very few could become king. While some would work a few hours per week, most would have a life of leisure. People would live like the physician played by Cameron Diaz in the 1998 film “There’s Something About Mary.” They would work more on “lifestyle” issues like their golf swing than their profession.

Four factors, Keynes wrote, would effect this transition:

1. Power to control population,
2. Determination to avoid wars and civil dissentions,
3. Entrust to science that which is the domain of science,
4. Compound interest.

Only compound interest has proven consistent. China appears to have had limited success controlling population growth China’s “One Child Policy” limits to one the number of children married urban couples can have. Given the exemptions, it applies to 35.9% of the population. China has avoided wars since the Korean War, and as demonstrated in the Tianamien Square massacre of 2,000 to 3,000 students,  (click here for Wikipedia) suppresses civil dissent.  (The death of Hu Yaobang, an anti-corruption, pro-democracy official sparked what the Chinese government refers to as “the June 4 incident.” Protests beginning April 14, 1989 were quashed. Chinese student associations and the Red Cross report 2,000 to 3,000 deaths. The Chinese government reports 241 deaths, including soldiers. ) Must of humanity does “entrust to science that which is the domain of science” however, a large percentage of Americans do not “believe” in scientific analysis of problems such as global warming (Rasumssen Reports, “44% Say Global Warming Due to Planetary Trends, Not People) or the potential of stem cell research.( Gary Langer, ABC News) Americans back stem cell research 2 – 1. However, this means that one third of Americans oppose or do not favor stem cell research.

Keynes described “the enormous anomaly of unemployment in a world full of wants, (Keynes, John Maynard, “Economic possibilities for our grand-children.’ In essays in Persuasion, 1931.)” and said important technical improvements and compound interest would create sufficient wealth for those living in “progressive countries.” He might not have foreseen the development of so-called “disposable” items or the use of planned obsolescence to create artificial markets. We don’t need new cars or computers every 3 years. And he does not appear to have realized that the technical improvements that make our lifestyles less physically challenging would be based on the consumption of finite resources – living off the principle. The “agricultural revolution” that enabled the population to grow was based on the overconsumption of clean water and fossil fuel based fertilizers. Today we see fisheries in natural ecosystems like the Chesapeake Bay severely depleted.

This world of leisure was predicated on two phenomena:

1. No important wars,
2. No increase in population.

World War II began in 1939; only 8 years after Keynes published “Economic Possibilities for our Grand-Children.” The death count is probably somewhere around 73 million (World War II casualties, Wikipedia. ) . While there are no current wars of the magnitude of World War II, there were, according to Assadourian and the World Watch team, 28 wars and 43 armed conflicts in 2006 (Assadourian, Eric, Project Director, World Watch Institute, Vital Signs 2007-2008, W. W. Norton & Company, New York, London. ) . One of these, the war in Iraq, is, according to Alan Greenspan, a war for oil (Quoted in the Times Online, 9/16/07, Paterson, Graham, “Alan Greenspan Claims Iraq War Really For Oil”.)

According to US government estimates, the world population grew from 2,070 million in 1930 to 6,100 in 2000 (U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau Of The Census, International Brief, World Population at a Glance: 1996 and Beyond. U. S. Census Bureau, Historical Estimate of World Population, .). The population is projected to grow to 8,100 million by 2030, and 8,900 million by 2050(World Population. http://wn.wikipedia.org/wiki/world_population). This will be an increase of 430% from 1930 levels. World population is growing over 10% per decade, but growth is forecast to slow to 3.5% per decade between 2040 and 2050, when, as noted, it is expected to reach 8.9 Billion.

Then there’s hunger and health care.

In the United States today, 11.1 million people, including 430,000 children experience hunger. Approximately 45 to 50 million Americans can not afford health insurance and therefore have very limited access to health care. That’s one out of six. President Bush once said

People have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room.

(Krugman, Paul, The Waiting Game, Economist’s View ). The Emergency Room is spectacularly ill-equipped to treat conditions like cancer, infectious diseases or chronic conditions, like high blood pressure, or diabetes. The ER can stabilize a high blood pressure patient who has just had a stroke or a heart attack. It can handle a diabetic patient in a diabetic coma or one with a gangrenous leg that must be amputated. There are, however, less expensive ways to manage these conditions.

Approximately 923 million people worldwide are hungry. 16,000 children die each day from hunger related causes; one every five seconds. Close to 1.4 billion people lived below the international poverty level – earning less than $1.25 per day – in 2005 (Why. Finding Answers For Hunger And Poverty) .

We are not living off the interest. We are living off the principle – fossil fuels. This has enabled the population to grow from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.6 billion in 2000.14 We don’t harness the energy in sunlight, kinetic energy in the winds and marine currents, or the thermal energy in the earth. We consume resources rather than sustainably harnessing natural processes. Unless we shift to a sustainable model, we will hit a Malthusian wall when these resources are depleted. And if population is above the “carrying capacity” there will be what Alan Greenspan might term a

Malthusian correction in the population bubble.

As Gore noted, “We’re borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet. Every bit of that’s got to change.(Gore, Al, “A Generational Challenge to Repower America.”)

Keynes said we must be smart and ruthless. The United States is fighting a Trillion Dollar war for access to a natural resource. One out of six Americans has no health insurance and limited access to health care. Scarcity is a problem.

We are certainly ruthless. if we were smart we would shift to a system based on sustainable energy.