Putin appears to be recreating the Russian Empire – with himself, of course, as Tzar. While calling himself “President” not “Tzar,” he has succeeded within Russia and he has extended his dominion to Belarus and eastern Ukraine.

The rest of Ukraine is obviously next. And then? The Baltics? Poland? Czechia & Slovakia?

I have friends who remember the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956 (click here) and of Czechoslovakia in 1968 (here).

Anne Applebaum, in The Atlantic, 2/3/22, “The Reason Putin Would Risk War,” here, notes that as dictator, he is strong, the most powerful of the oligarchs who looted Russia, the one who controls the army, the secret police, the press, … but his position is precarious. His real fear, she continues, is not that Ukraine will join NATO, but that Ukraine will join the EU, that Ukrainians will enjoy the benefits of democracy, the rule of law, free enterprise, a consumer economy in which the stores have things they can afford to buy, and that Russians will want the same.

Russia is already engaged in acts of cold warfare, cyber warfare and social engineering. Since 2015 his campaign to weaken the EU and USA succeeded, perhaps beyond his wildest dreams, with Brexit and the election of the 45th President of the United States. Russia’s GRU – under Putin’s control – has engaged in and continues to engage in cyber-warfare against the Estonia, Ukraine, and UK, and USA. Even in the Olympics, Russian athletes violate international law via the use banned substances – because Putin thinks they can.

As noted in my previous post, here, the Soviet Union didn’t as much defeat Nazi Germany as survive it. The US won WW II, and via $11.3 Billion (equivalent to $180 Billion today) in US aid via the Lend-Lease program helped the Soviet Union.

By taking over eastern Ukraine in 2014, and turning Belarus into what is essentially a Soviet State where President Alexander Lukashecko is essentially a pawn, and by threatening all of Ukraine, along with Poland, Putin has strengthened NATO and strengthened America’s role within NATO. Thus, Putin the fool.

But don’t bet on war. Putin is too greedy. And he and other oligarchs have too much of their (stolen) wealth stashed in the west, in London, New York, Washington, DC, southern Florida, and Monaco. And his “friendship” with Xi Jinping is as phony as a $3 dollar bill, and is worth about as much as a Ruble on the streets of Omaha, Nebraska.

Putin and Xi see the US and Western Europe as a common enemy. Democracy, by definition, is something they can’t control. Their problem is Russia is not big enough or rich enough to meet China’s needs. China needs the US and Western Europe – needs access to their markets. Similarly, Russia needs access to markets in Western Europe for its oil and natural gas and north Africa for its wheat. And the other Russian oligarchs want access to their property and bank accounts in the US and Western Europe.

Putin, the chess master, may lose.

Stay tuned.

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A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College and a Bachelor’s of Science in Biology from the City University of New York  College of Staten Island. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”