The NY Post‘s bottom of the page headline, “Florida Man Makes Announcement. Page 26” didn’t make it clear, but Donald Trump, announced on November 15, 2022 that he is running for President in 2024.
The fact that the Post wrote “Florida Man” not “Donald Trump,” “President Trump,” etc., speaks volumes. The twice-impeached 45th President of the United States, twice lost the popular vote, said COVID-19 is a hoax, suggested that people drink bleach to cure them of COVID, suggested that people take a drug used to treat intestinal parasites to cure COVID, tried to bribe Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, refused – and still refuses – to admit defeat and accept the results of the 2020 election, stole Top Secret documents related to US national security, and launched an insurrection to hold power.
Question 1 is what’s the worst that could happen.
Question 2 is what is likely to happen.
In 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 7 million popular votes and 104 Electoral College votes (map from 270towin.com).
| In 2020 | Biden | Trump | Difference |
| Popular | 81,283,501 | 74,223,975 | 7,059,526 |
| Vote % | 51.3% | 46.8% | 4.50% |
| Electoral | 306 | 202 | 104 |
So what will happen in 2024?
There are two (2) basic possibilities:
- Trump is the Republican Party nominee and runs against President Biden, the Democratic Party nominee, and,
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (or another Republican) is the Republican Party nominee to run against Biden and Trump runs as a 3rd Party Candidate.
And some additional questions:
- How will Wyoming vote? Will Cheney’s curse, “Tonight, I say this to my Republican colleagues who are defending the indefensible: There will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonor will remain,” here be manifest at the ballot box? (Was Cheney’s curse manifest in 2022 in Arizona, Nevada, and or Pennsylvania?)
- How will Kansas vote? Kansas, which now has a Democratic Governor, voted to preserve abortion rights in a landslide referendum in August, 2022. (Yahoo news, here.)
The obvious likely result of Trump as the nominee running against Biden is a repeat of 2020, with Biden winning.
The obvious likely result of Trump running as a spoiler against Biden and DeSantis is also Biden winning, also by a stronger margin in both the general election and the Electoral College. Republicans in Kansas blame former Republican Dennis “Gomer” Pyle’s 3rd party run for Democratic Governor Laura Kelly’s narrow victory (MSN here).
And we should also keep in mind that in 2016, while Trump won the Electoral College vote by 77 votes, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.9 million votes.
| In 2016 | Clinton | Trump | Difference |
| Popular | 65,853,514 | 62,984,828 | 2,868,686 |
| Vote % | 48.2% | 46.1% | 2.10% |
| Electoral | 227 | 304 | -77 |
We will see what happens.