New York, NY, 7/28/24. Updated, 8/30/24, 9/21/24. Allan Lichtman, whose model successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections, has made a preliminary projection that Kamala Harris will win the Presidential election in November, 2024.
 
I agree with his assessment. However, I think there are a few things that he misses in his preliminary analysis. First: The polls. According to Fox News, Harris has a higher favorability rating in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“Favoribility” is not votes – neither are polls. However, the national polls, reported by TheHill.com, as of 7/28/24, show Harris closing but slightly behind the twice-impeached failed insurrectionist with 34 Felony convictions.

Update: according to The Hill, as of 8/30/24, Harris leads Trump, 52.6 to 47.4. This matches the NY Times, 49 to 46. According to the NY Times, here, as of Sept. 21, 2024, Harris leads by 2 points nationally, and leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. According to TheHill.com, as of Thursday, Sept. 19, Harris and Trump were deadlocked nationally while Harris was up 4 points in Pennsylvania. (here). So the Polls are close.

Then, there’s Allen Lichtman.

And Lichtman’s model, described here, and by Lichtman himself on Social Studies . org, here, may be more reliable than the polls. He developed the model with Vladimir Keels-Borok in 1981. The model reviews 13 socioeconomic issues, Lichtman calls them keys, that impact Presidential elections. Since 1981, the candidate who has 8 or more of these 13 keys has generally won. As noted above, Lichtman’s model was correct in 9 of the 10 Presidential elections, beginning in 1984.

Lichtman gives Harris: 8 keys, I give her 12. His model and the keys pointing to a Harris victory are described in USA Today, on July 26, 2024. Here are the keys, Lichtman’s analysis, and my analysis for 2024.

Key 1: Midterm Gains: Lichtman: “Trump,” I concur.

But slightly. The GOP won the House in 2022, but by a narrow margin, There was no red wave! The Democrats still control the Senate, and won more races than they were expected to.

Key 2: No Primary Contest – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

Trump faced challenges from Niki Haley, Ron DiSantis, and others. Biden essentially faced no challenges. When, on Sunday, July 21, he withdrew and endorsed Harris, within days, all of his pledged delegates went to her, along with the enthusiastic support of essentially all of his supporters. This is dramatically different from 1968, where Humphrey was nominated despite the challenges of RFK and Eugene McCarthy, and 1980, where Senator Ted Kennedy mounted a serious challenge to incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Key 3: Incumbent seeking re-election: Lichtman doesn’t consider Harris the incumbent. I do.

Neither candidate is technically the incumbent but Harris is an incumbent Vice President and she is running with the endorsement of and nomination by the incumbent, who, on July 21, 2024, stepped back from the race, saying, “Run Kamala, Run! The future depends on it. America is more important than my ambition. And Trump and Vance are weird.” While Harris is running against a former President, he is not the current incumbent. In addition, he:

1. Lost to the current President when he ran as the incumbent.
2. Was impeached twice, first for abuse of power, second for trying to seize power in a coup.
3. Has been convicted on 34 felony counts and various other crimes.
4. Is on trial for stealing Top Secret documents relating to US National Security
5. Is on trial for trying to subvert the election.

Key 4: No major third party challenge – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

Third parties, such as Pat Buchanon in 1992, and Ralph Nader in 2000, historically count against the incumbent party.

As noted in the USA Today article. “‘They’re a sign of discontent with the way the nation is being governed,’ Lichtman said. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to achieve 5% of the vote to turn this key, and Lichtman says his polling ahead of November would need to stabilize at 10%. Lichtman said it’s possible but unlikely that RFK Jr. could achieve those percentages.” On Friday, 8/23/24 Kennedy suspended the race and endorsed Trump. (Politico, here).

Key 5: Strong Short-Term Economy – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

We are not in a recession. Gasoline prices are dropping, at the moment. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserved cut interest rates by 0.5% or 50 Basis Points on Thursday, 9/19/24.

Key 6: Strong Long-Term Economy – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

Real economic growth exceeds that of the previous administration, that of VP Harris’ challenger.

Key 7: Major Policy Changes – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

As noted in the USA Today article, “A significant change from the previous administration or a truly historic policy change like the New Deal.” Clearly, policy under Joe Biden in virtually every aspect of domestic policy has been fundamentally different from that of the previous administration. The Biden / Harris Administration shifted gears on Covid from “Inject Bleach” to “Get vaccinated.” This worked. And not surprisingly, the economy recovered. Unemployment in January, 2021 was at 6.3%. Today, August, 2024, Unemployment rate is 4.3%.

Key 8: No Social Unrest – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

There were major demonstrations against Trump from the day of his inauguration.

There have been demonstrations against Israel, mostly on college campuses, but also in New York City, Washington, DC, and elsewhere. These, probably being financed by Iran or Qatar, are not significant. While we can expect demonstrations at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, 2024, they will not have widespread popular support.

Key 9: No Scandal – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

Trump was one scandal after another. Beginning with his overcharging the American people when he and his Secret Service detail stayed at his clubs and hotels. Continuing when he tried to steal Top Secret documents related to US National Security. Including after his term ended when he staged a coup. And, tragically his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting people drink bleach, campaigning while personally sick with the virus, debating then Vice-President Biden while sick – and exposing him.

Key 10: No Foreign / Military Failure: Furman: “Biden / Harris.”

While the Trump team has attempted to make Biden’s awkward withdrawal from Afghanistan as a major failure it was not. The military failure of Afghanistan was George W. Bush’s.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the attacks on Israel by Hamas on October 7 and Hezbollah on October 8, are terrible and tragic. However, these are not military failures on the part of the President Biden.

The argument that Putin invaded Ukraine because he perceived weakness within NATO has merit. However this was a result, at least in part, of four (4) years of President Donald Trump threatening, and thereby weakening the Alliance.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, and Hezbollah attacked on October 8, 2023 because they and their patrons in Tehran perceived Israel to be weak, possibly because demonstrations in Israel showing a lack of support for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Tehran are totalitarian entities, ruled by a “Supreme Leader.” Israel is a democracy governed by coalition. Israelis are loyal to the state, not the Prime Minister. Tehran and its clients do not understand that in a democracy, free speech is a sign of strength. They did not expect a united Israel to respond to the attacks.

Key 11: Major Foreign / Military Success: Furman: “Biden / Harris.”

The Biden Harris Administration’s responses to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, unifying NATO, even to the point where Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and to the Hamas – Palestinian Islamic Jihad – Hezbollah – Iran attacks on Israel should be considered Foreign / Military successes.

Key 12: Charismatic Candidate of the Incumbent Party: Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.

Lichtman defines “charismatic” in elections as, like Ronald Reagan in 1980, able to draw in independent or unaffiliated voters, or people who are registered to the other party. This probably applied to Biden in 2020 with regards to suburban Republican women in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and other states. Similarly, Harris is charismatic. She is to be attracting Republicans, including former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, her father, former VP Dick Cheney, and hundreds of members of the Trump, Bush, and Reagan administrations. and women and traditional, small government thinking conservative Republicans.

Key 13: Uncharismatic Challenger – Furman: “Biden / Harris.”

Trump is focusing on his supporters and appears focused on alienating independent voters. This is weird for a politician. Every politician should know that you rally your base for the primaries then you pivot to the center for the general. This makes Trump anti-charismatic.

In Summary

As Biden would say, “Here’s the deal.” It’s reasonable to consider Harris the incumbent. She is the sitting Vice President. She didn’t gain the nomination in a contested Primary battle. The incumbent President, who gained the nomination in a virtually uncontested Primary battle, was the candidate ontil Sunday, July 21, when he announced that he decided not to run, and nominated her. This gives her the incumbancy, and Lichtman’s Key 3.

Similarly, while his moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and work on the Abraham Accords, the treaties between Israel and various Arab countries should be considered a foreign policy success, Trump’s statements regarding Russia and his phone call to Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy amount to spectacular foreign policy failures.

Biden and Harris, with their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Iran / Hamas attacks on Israel have foreign policy / military successes. And no major foreign policy / military failures. This gives her keys 10 and 11, as well.

And she is incredibly charismatic, appealing to Democrats, women, young people. Considering her the incumbent gives her Key 12.

Lichtman gave Harris 8 keys: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 12.

Thus, I give Harris 12 keys, adding 3, 10, 11, and 13.

In addition, there was no “Red Wave” in 2022. The Democrats lost the House, but several Trump backed candidates lost their races, notably Senate candidates in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and the Governor’s race in Pennsylvania. Therefore, based on the Democrats strong showing in 2022, and in various other elections in and after since 2020, it seems to me that Key 1, “Midterm Gains,” can be considered a tossup. However, I need Professor Lichtman’s concurrence.

Back in 2020, Lichtman’s analysis predicted Biden would win. I don’t know the details but here is my assessment:

Biden had nine (9) of the 13 keys: 1, 5, 6, and 8 thru 13. Trump had three (3): 2, 3, and 4. Key 7 was a tossup.

• The end result was:
  • Biden received 81,283,501 votes, 51.3% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 74,223,975 votes, 46.8% of the popular vote, and
  • Biden: 306 to 232 in the Electoral College.

Here are Lichtman’s Keys, as I understand them:

• 1. Midterm Gains: Biden. Democrats gained in the House in the 2018 midterms.
• 2. No Primary Contest: Trump.
• 3. Incumbent seeking re-election: Trump.`
• 4. No major third party challenge: Trump.
• 5. Strong Short-Term Economy: Biden. With Trump in the White House unemployment was sky high. And then there was COVID-19.
• 6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Biden. See #5. Or try to forget COVID-19.
• 7. Major Policy Changes: Tossup. Trump drastically changed systems, particularly the judiciary. However, these were spectacularly unpopular and galvanized the electorate against him. He has consistently bragged about ending 50 years of precedent in Roe V Wade. He also appointed Aileen Cannon, who threw out Independent Counsel precedent dating to the 1970’s. So while Trump instituted major policy changes these changes are deeply and spectacularly unpopular with Democrats and independents.
• 8. No Social Unrest: Biden. The protests against Trump during his Presidency started with his inauguration. He himself led the insurrection deemed protests of Jan. 6, 2020.
  • Biden: 306 to 232 in the Electoral College.,
  • Biden received 81,283,501 votes, 51.3% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 74,223,975 votes, 46.8% of the popular vote.
• 9. No Scandal: Biden. Trump scandals are legendary.
• 10. No Foreign / Military Failure: Biden. Trump decimated American standing globally and tried to diminish NATO. It is almost as if Vladimir Putin had an ally, a useful idiot, or a Manchurian Candidate, in the White House.
• 11. Major Foreign / Military Success: Biden. Trump did preside over the Abraham accords, but those were minor.
• 12. Charismatic Incumbent: Biden. Trump’s charismatic appeal was limited to his base.
• 13, Uncharismatic Challenger: Biden. Either Biden was charismatic in 2020, or simply was the leader of the successful movement to “Dump Trump.”

This brings us to 2016, Clinton v Trump.

While Hillary won the popular vote, Lichtman’s analysis predicted Trump would win. Real Clear Politics, here,

Hillary had four (4) or five (5) keys. Trump had eight (8) or nine (9).

• 1. Midterms: Trump. the Democrats were crushed in the 2014 midterms.
• 2. Primaries: Trump. Hillary beat Sanders, but it was hard fought and passionate.
• 3. Incumbent seeking re-election. Trump. Obama was not running. While Clinton was Secretary of State, she was not anointed the way Biden anointed Harris.
• 4. Major third party challenge: Trump. Gary Johnson was polling high enough to be a factor.
• 5. Strong Short-Term Economy: Clinton.
• 6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Clinton.
• 7. Major Policy Changes: Trump. There were no major policy initiatives during the second Obama administration.
• 8. Social Unrest: Clinton. There was no social unrest during either of Obama terms.
• 9. Scandals: Should have favored Clinton, but favored Trump. There were no actual scandals during either of Obama terms however the Republicans, the FBI, and the media had a field day over Benghazi and Hillary’s email server. (Benghazi should have been described as an intelligence failure, but it was an act of war. The server was a spectacularly stupid move.)
• 10. No Foreign / Military Failure: Clinton.
• 11. Major Foreign / Military Success: Trump. There was no major foreign policy or military success.
• 12. Charismatic candidate from the Incumbent party: Trump. Hillary is intelligent, experienced, and works hard, but she was not charismatic.
• 13, Uncharismatic Challenger: Trump. He had a charisma in 2016.