At the National Summit of the Israeli American Council, Donald Trump said “the Jewish people” would have a “lot to do with it” if he loses the presidential election. This event, described here, was organized to combat anti-Semitism.
But back to “If I lose the Jewish people would have a lot to do with it.”
This is a threat, plain and simple.
It’s like a hoodlum walking into a restaurant, with a baseball bat in one hand, slapping against his other hand, going, “Nice little place you got here, it’d be a shame if anything was to happen to it.”
Threatening extortion.
He also said, “I’m the one protecting you.” While it was unclear if he meant Israel or Jewish Americans, it is clear that this too is patently absurd, but also extortion. He was not protecting the Jewish community in the US when he said, “there are good people of both sides,” in response to neo-Nazis marching, chanting, “Jews will not replace us,” and killing Heather Heyer, a 32 year old paralegal and civil rights activist in the August, 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, VA. (More at PBS News Hour, here.)
The statement is also revealing of his totalitarian and “Constitution? What Constitution?” leanings. In the United States law enforcement and the judiciary are responsible for protecting citizens, it is not the job of the President. If “Protecting you” is the prerogative of the President then he or she could choose to do it or not. If it the de jure responsibility of the government then it is something law enforcement and the judiciary must do, as they have sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
But about the Jewish vote –
There are about 7.5 million Jews in the United States, a country of roughly 340 million. While that is more than live in several states, The Jews have zero votes in the Electoral College.
Most American Jews live in New York, California, and New Jersey. These are states which typically vote for Democrats.
New York, for example, is home to about 1.8 million Jews, and 20 million people. The last time a Republican won New York was 1984. While it is mathematically possible that New York could swing to Trump if EVERY one of those 1.8 million Jews voted for him, it is unlikely. Similarly, in California, there are 39 million people, and 1.2 million Jews.
| State | Total (M) | Jews (M) |
| NY | 20 | 1.8 |
| CA | 39 | 1.2 |
| NJ | 9 | 0.6 |
Jews are 9% of the population of New York, around 2.5% of the population of California, and roughly 6.7% of the population of New Jersey. That’s theoretically enough to swing New York and New Jersey.
However, generally speaking, roughly 70% to 80% of Jews vote for Democrats.
Assuming all Jews are registered to vote – which is impossible because some are under 18, there may be 5% to 10% who could swing from Harris to Trump, and another 5% from 10% who could swing from Republican to Democrat. That’s 180 thousand in New York, 120,000 in California, and 60,000 in New Jersey. This is probably not enough to swing the electoral votes in those states.
| State | 70% D (M) | 60% D (M) | Swing |
| Millions | Millions | Millions | |
| NY | 1.26 | 1.08 | 0.18 |
| CA | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.12 |
| NJ | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.06 |