At the National Summit of the Israeli American Council, Donald Trump said “the Jewish people” would have a “lot to do with it” if he loses the presidential election. This event, described here, was organized to combat anti-Semitism.
This, in and of itself, is an anti-Semitic statement. It’s a thinly veiled threat, akin to “Nice little place you got here, it’d be a shame if anything was to happen to it,” said while welding a baseball bat.
He also said, “I’m the one protecting you.” While it was unclear if he meant Israel or Jewish Americans, it is clear that this too is ridiculous. He was not protecting the Jewish community in the US when he said, of neo-Nazis marching, chanting, “Jews will not replace us,” and killing Heather Heyer, a 32 year old paralegal and civil rights activist in the August, 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, VA. (More at PBS News Hour, here.)
The statement is also revealing of his totalitarian and “Constitution? What Constitution?” leanings. In the United States law enforcement and the judiciary are responsible for protecting citizens, it is not the job of the President. If “Protecting you” is the prerogative of the President then he or she could choose to do it or not. If it the de jure responsibility of the government then it is something law enforcement and the judiciary must do, as they have sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
But back to “If I lose the Jewish people would have a lot to do with it.”
There are about 7.5 million Jews in the United States, a country of roughly 340 million. While that is more than live in several states, The Jews have zero votes in the Electoral College.
Most American Jews live in New York, California, and New Jersey, 630,000 out of about 9 million. These are states which typically vote for Democrats.
New York, for example, as noted above is home to about 1.8 million Jews, and 20 million people. The last time a Republican won New York was 1984. While it is mathematically possible that New York could swing to Trump if EVERY one of those 1.8 million Jews voted for him, it is unlikely.
| State | Total (M) | Jews (M) |
| NY | 20 | 1.8 |
| CA | 39 | 1.2 |
| NJ | 9 | 0.6 |
Generally speaking, roughly 70% of Jews vote for Democrats. Assuming all Jews are registered to vote – which is impossible because some are under 18, and some who are old enough to vote are not registered, there may be 5% to 10% who would swing from Harris to Trump, 180 thousand in New York, 120,000 in California, and 60,000 in New Jersey. This is probably not enough to swing the electoral votes in those states.
| State | 70% D (M) | 60% D (M) | Swing |
| Millions | Millions | Millions | |
| NY | 1.26 | 1.08 | 0.18 |
| CA | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.12 |
| NJ | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.06 |