Benjamin Netanyahu (center), Nikos Christodoulides (left) and Kyriakos Mitsotakis (right) in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (Abir Sultan / Pool / AFP)

Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, flanked by Greece’s PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides said, “To those who fantasize they can reestablish their empires and their dominion over our lands, I say: Forget it. It’s not going to happen. Don’t even think about it.”
(Times of Israel, here).

They are talking to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

This is chutzah.

Erdogan is dreaming that he can recreate the Ottoman Empire.

This is hubris.

And when it’s chutzpah v hubris, bet on chutzpah.

Israel has a population of about 9.5 million people. Greece: 10.4 and Cyprus: 1.3, Turkey: 85.8. So Turkey outnumbers Israel, Greece, and Cyprus combined by about 4.2 to 1. On the face of it, one could be forgiven for thinking Erdogan’s expectation is realistic and Netanyahu, Mitsotakis, and Christodoulides are being arrogant or engaging in fantastical thinking. But …given Israel’s response to the invasion by Iranian and Qatari backed forces on October 7, 2023, it may be Erdogan who is engaging in arrogant and fantastical thinking.

Think about it: On Oct. 7, 2023 Israel was attacked by Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad from the Gaza Strip. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah joined in from Lebanon. All three are and were armed, managed, and funded by Iran and Qatar. And today Hamas has the support of Turkey.

That adds up to 125 million people, not counting Turkey. On October 6, 2023, Israel was – and remains – outnumbered 14 to 1. Despite being caught by surprise, Israel decimated the top leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, and Syria. Bashir al-Assad, the former dictator of Syria abdicated his Presidency and fled the country for Russia on December 8, 2024. (Reuters, here.)

Despite fighting a war on three (3) fronts, including the land borders with Gaza and Lebanon and the skies, plus attacks by Houthis from Yemen and Iran itself, Israeli arms production was sufficient to resupply the Israeli Defense Forces, IDF, and also sell $14.8 billion internationally in 2024 – (Times of Israel, here) almost 6 times the value of the S-400 Turkey bought from Russia in 2017, and 39.2% higher than the $9 billion Turkish companies lost because of Erdogan’s folly. (Yahoo News, here.)

Israel has just deployed “Magan Or,” the “Iron Beam,” literally “Shield of Light,” laser based missile defense system. Israel is also focused on continuing to develop its electronics and military, defense, and intelligence industries. Various Israeli weapons systems, including the Arrow 3, Barak MX, David’s Sling, PULS, Spike,  and components of the Iron Dome are in use by U.K, US DoD, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany, and (probably) Ukraine. Israel’s Defense Ministry recently announcing the existence of Magen Or, Iron Beam, and Lehav Barzel, Iron Sting, Iron Beam has intercepted short-range rockets at a distance of 10 KM, or 6 miles. While the costs of missile defense using air to air missiles is in the hundred’s of thousands per engagement, the costs using lasers is under $10 per engagement. (Jerusalem Post, here,)

Erdogan, on the other hand, seems focused on shooting himself in the foot. In 2017, as noted above, Erdogan spent $2.5 Billion on Russian made S-400 missile defense system. S-400 is incompatible with the NATO systems in place in Turkey, so these were never used and are sitting, rusting, in warehouses. This also cost Turkey its role in the F-35 program, and cost Turkish companies  $9 Billion in lost revenue they would have earned manufacturing components for F-35 systems. (Yahoo News, here.)

As Bobby Ghosh put it, in “Erdogan’s S-400 Trouble was his own Making,” Time on 22 December, 2025, (Yahoo News, here)

It takes a special kind of leader to spend $2.5 billion on a weapons system, never use it, alienate his most important allies, get kicked out of the world’s most advanced fighter jet program, endure years of sanctions — and then ask the seller for a refund.

Yet here we are. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the possibility of returning Russia’s S-400 air defense system during his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan [Dec. 12, 2025].

Putin said nothing. His silence was, as they say, deafening. Of course in December, 2024, Putin was and remains, in a catastrophic war of his own against Ukraine. He needs every ruble.

Makes you wonder if the “S” in “S-400” stands for “Schmuck.

Be that as it may, Israel’s defensive capabilities suggest that it would be able to fend off an air attack by Turkey.