Author Archives: J Soroko and L Furman

Securing Our Schools, Part 2

 KIDS

(18 of the 20 children killed at Sandy Hook. Image courtesy of Island 106.)

In response to the killing of 20 children and four teachers, Dawn Hochsprung, the school’s beloved principal, and school psychologist Mary Sherlach at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the NRA’s Wayne LaPierre’s proposed stationing armed police, at taxpayer’s expense, in every school. We at Popular Logistics, think this wasn’t thought through – or is a “red herring” meant to distract people from the real problem – close to 300 million weapons in the hands of roughly 80 million people in the United States.  given the number of weapons in the USA, the number of people with weapons, the ease and lack of oversight with which people can obtain weapons, the editors of Popular Logistics, as discussed here, believe that we need to think seriously about securing our schools.

(Note that the NRA’s executive offices are at 11250 Waples Mill Rd, Fairfax, VA, 22030. The NRA can be reached via telephone to 703-267-1250, via Fax to 703-267-3985, and via e-mail at nracrdf@nrahq.org)

As with commercial aviation safety, we should start by securing, or hardening our schools. Our “back of the envelope” calculation suggests that we can do this for about $40,000 per school, and therefore $5.6 Billion for the 140,040 schools in the United States. That will be explored in Part 3 of this series. This post continues the discussion of development of a squad of officers/agents for each school, begun in Part 1.

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Congratulations President Obama on Your Re-Election

President Obama

The Editors would like to congratulate President Obama, and the American People, on his reelection.

We see that President Obama is an intelligent and thoughtful person who looks at the evidence before making a decision.  He is able to take risks and has thus far show good judgment, leadership, self-confidence, and humility.  As has been pointed out on the campaign trail, “bin Laden is dead and GM is alive.”

While we disagree with the President on certain issues, we hope he is successful, because when the President is not successful, then America is not successful.

Where do we disagree with the President? Energy, the Economy, and Health Care, what we call the “Bio-Humano-Sphere”.

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Gonorrhea Evolving; Almost Untreatable

Treatment history. Courtesy of CDC and the AthlanticJames Hamblin, MD, at The Atlantic, here,  writes,

The list of effective antibiotics has been dwindling as the bacteria became resistant, and now it’s down to one. Five years ago, the CDC said fluoroquinolones were no longer effective, but oral cephalosporins were still a common/easy treatment. Now injected ceftriaxone is the only recommended effective drug we have left. And it has to be given along with either azithromycin or doxycycline.

Dr. Hamblin and The Atlantic also reproduced the graphic, above, tracing the treatments in use from 1988 to 2010.  Penicillins stopped being effective in the early 1990’s. While this news is disturbing, it also illustrates how evolution works. A small percentage survive because of natural resistance. They reproduce. Their offspring have the resistant genes.  Whether it’s grey moths that are obvious on trees in pristine environments and difficult to see on trees where the smog coloured the bark, pests in a farm field, or infectious bacteria, the principle is the same.

Looking from a whole systems perspective, maybe we need to develop medications that stimulate the human immune response, rather than medications that try to kill the bacteria. Continue reading →

CDC: Health Implications of Hydraulic Fracturing: Unknown

Schematic Drawing of Hydrofracturing

Hydraulic Fracturing 1, Schematic Drawing

The Centers for Disease Control, CDC, on May 3, 2012 issued a brief but unequivocal statement regarding the health implications of hydraulic fracturing here, and reproduced in it’s entirety below.

CDC / ATSDR Hydraulic Fracturing Statement:

CDC and ATSDR do not have enough information to say with certainty whether natural gas extraction and production activities including hydraulic fracturing pose a threat to public health. We believe that further study is warranted to fully understand potential public health impacts.

Image of fire from tap water with various flammable impurities

Frakking 2, Tap Water with Various Impurities

The CDC, in its 47-word statement said, “We don’t know the public health implications of hydraulic fracturing, aka ‘fracking’ or ‘frakking.’ We need to study the issue.” Perhaps the decision makers at the CDC should watch Gasland. But consider the CDC statement on hydraulic fracturing in light of picture 2 and the “Precautionary Principle,”

The precautionary principle or precautionary approach states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action.

The Precautionary Principle is described in more detail on Commonweal (here) and Science & Environmental Health Network, SEHN (here).  Burning fuel for heat requires obtaining the fuel and releases various materials into the biosphere. We must understand the consequences and side-effects before we embark on any project. The questions in re hydraulic fracturing are:

  • Are these pictures real or imagined?
  • What are the implications for the water supply and the biosphere?
  • What are the liability insurance requirements? and
  • What are the alternatives?

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Nuclear Divers – Swimming in Hot Water

Diver using an AMP 100 to measure radiation

Another day at the office, from "The Life of a Nuclear Diver," William Sheaffer, here.

Nuclear power plant maintenance requires SCUBA divers in the rivers and oceans near the intake pipes and, as the image shows, in the reactor itself. And the men and women who work as employees and contractors for the plants and for Underwater Construction Corp, UCC do the job (more images).

According to Katheryn Kranhold, here, of the Wall Street Journal and Pittsburgh Post Gazette, “Divers are in great demand these days. Power companies need them to maintain many of the world’s 442 nuclear reactors. They’re also called on to repair aging bridges and water tanks…. That has done little to increase pay for nuclear divers, who start at salaries of about $30,000 a year.”

What are the risks of this work over and beyond the risks of SCUBA diving? What are the protections afforded the workers? What insurers underwrite the risks?  And who purchases the insurance? The divers? Their employers?  The nuclear plant operators? Or the sub-contractors who hire contract divers (at $20 per hour)? How many hours per year do the divers work, and can they afford the insurance? And if they can afford the insurance, do they actually buy it?

David Goodwillie, writing in Popular Science, reports on the chilling occupation of nuclear divers in Swimming On The Hot Side excerpted below. Continue reading →

Nuclear Power: Earthquakes and Risk Assessment

Matthew L. Wald, Nuclear power plant symbol By Hendrik Tammen via Wikimedia Commnswriting in the New York TImes, covers a new modeling technique to assess seismic risk to nuclear power plants.  Quakes and U.S. Reactors: An Analytic Tool

With the release of a computer model of all known geologic faults east of Denver, nearly all of the nuclear power plants in the United States are about to embark on a broad re-evaluation of their vulnerability to earthquakes. The new mapping is the first major update of the fault situation for plants since 1989.

The map has been in preparation since 2008, well before the earthquake and tsunami that caused three meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan last March or the quake near Mineral, Va., last summer that shook a twin-reactor plant beyond the degree expected. Still, those events have lent urgency to the effort to assess the American plants’ ability to withstand quakes.

The new study does not calculate the risk of damage from an earthquake or even specify how much ground motion is likely at the reactor sites. That work is left to the plants’ owners, supervised by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The industry began to realize after the Fukushima disaster that engineers did not have a strong understanding of which structures and systems at the plants were most vulnerable.

As one of us, Lawrence J. Furman pointed out in Nuclear Power, Natural Disasters, and Security on Popular Logistics, on August 28, 2011,

“Nuclear power diminishes  National Security and the stability of the electric grid.”

Mr. Furman also blogged on the nuclear plants at the North Anna Power Station, in Louisa County, Virginia, that were shut down because of the earthquake last summer, here, the eight plants that were shut down by Hurricane Irene, in the 8/28/11 post referenced above, and the Cooper and Fort Calhoun, Nebraska nuclear power plants. Cooper was shut down due to flooding on the Missouri River. Fort Calhoun was shut down for refueling in May, 2011. It was held offline in June, 2011, due to flooding of the Missouri River. Our coverage began here, on June 25, 2011, continued here, June 29, 2011. According to the NRC, here, the plant remains offline 285 days after the flood,  at a cost, to the ratepayers, of $1 million per day, or $285 Million, and counting.

The nature of nuclear power is such that the plants can be shut down, as were Cooper, Fort Calhoun, and eight other plants from North Carolina to Connecticut, by the rain. Unlike solar energy systems, nuclear plants don’t come back on automatically.

As Mr. Furman wrote in “21 for 2011: The most significant events of the year,” here,

In the words of Mycle Schneider, “The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima. When the history of this industry is written, Fukushima is likely to introduce its final chapter,” (click here). However, the three melt-downs at Fukushima, coupled with the melt-down at Chernobyl in 1986 and the partial melt-down at Three Mile Island in 1979, suggest a probability of one melt-down every 14 years and a major incident somewhere – and everywhere – every 11 years.

Nuclear Power, One Year After Fukushima

In the 54 years between 1957, when the Price Anderson Act was passed, and 2011 we have:

  • Experienced four melt-downs and one partial melt-down at nuclear power plants,
  • An increasing amount of radioactive waste that we really don’t know how to deal with, but must manage for hundreds of years – or thousands.  
  • Security Concerns. Sharif Mobley, an American, arrested in Yemen in March, 2010, suspected of being a covert agent of Al Queda connected to Anwar Al Awlaki (CS Monitor), and who, before going to Yemen, worked at nuclear power plants in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland (NJ News Room).

The World Nuclear Association has a detailed summary of the state of the industry (here), at Popular Logistics, We have concluded that a thorough understanding of the dynamics of the system and the risks from existing or future nuclear plants demands a paradigm shift to efficient use of sustainable energy.

The people of Fukushima – and Japan – are concerned that their food is “salted” with radioactive isotopes from the three reactors that melted downs. And they don’t trust their government. They feel it is too trusting of the people in the nuclear power industry (NPR). And we see the same cozy relationship between the regulatory agencies and the regulated industry in the United States. (PopularLogistics).

The “No More Fukushimas” walk from Oyster Creek to Vermont Yankee continues – and it will pass Indian Point today, March 11, 2012 (here).

The Japanese have closed 52 of their 54 nuclear power plants.

In the US, eight plants, from North Carolina to Connecticut were closed in August, 2011 because of Hurricane Irene. Two plants in Virginia were closed because of an earthquake. Fort Calhoun, the plant that was built on the bank of the Missouri River, near Omaha, Nebraska, that was shut down in May, 2011 for refueling and kept off-line due to heavy rains in June 2011 and 9 months later remains shut down. While the distribution of radioactive isotopes is minimal, and mostly tritium, the financial cost (not counting waste cleanup) is $1.0 million per day. These costs will be carried on the shoulders of the ratepayers, not the owners of the plant (here).

When Excelon whined that “upgrading Oyster Creek would cost too much; they would have to close it down,” Gov. Chris Christie said “Ok, then close it down.” The folks in Georgia are not as bold as the Honorable Governor of New Jersey. When Georgia Power said “In order to build two new 1.17 GW reactors at the Vogtle complex, we need to charge ratepayers for construction before we break ground, the NRC said “OK, and here are loan guarantees” (here).

But Georgia is the exception to the rule. Mycle Schneider, describing the Worldwatch Report he wrote on nuclear power last year, said (Press Release / Report):

“The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima. When the history of this industry is written, Fukushima is likely to introduce its final chapter.”

Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, in the foreword to the report, wrote,

“The Fukushima accident has just vaporized the balance sheet of the world’s #4 power company, TEPCO… this … could cost $100-plus billion… with such an unforgiving technology, accidents anywhere are accidents everywhere.”

Popular Logistics is a blog. We have the resources to write one or two articles per week, and cover a variety of issues. The professional news media, i.e., The New York Times, National Public Radio are able to commit substantial resources to these issues.

Nuclear Crisis in Japan will lead you to a collection of articles about Japan, Fukushima and the future of nuclear power from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 

Matthew L. Wald (preceding link to Mr. Wald’s posts on the Green Blog,  Transcripts Show U.S. Confusion Early in Japan Nuclear Crisis ; (on NYTimes.com)

Andrew C. Revkin, Nuclear Risk and Fear, from Hiroshima to Fukushima from the Dot Earth Blog, also of The Times,

Mr. Wald, again,  Sizing Up Health Impacts a Year After Fukushima.

We now are experiencing the effects of four melt-downs and one partial melt-down in the 54 years since the Price Anderson Act was signed. This is four melt-downs too many. This  is one meltdown every 13.5 years, one melt-down or partial melt-down every 11 years. While this is too small for statistical analysis, there have been melt-downs at four of the world’s 440 nuclear power plants. That’s a small number – about 0.9%. But the accidents were and remain catastrophic.

And in addition, nuclear power is expensive in terms of time and money for new plants  (NPR). It’s too expensive for investors given the choice; that’s why Georgia Power asked for – and got – loan guarantees and permission to charge ratepayers in advance for the money to build the Vogtle 3 and 4 plants (here).

As noted above:

We must understand the dynamics of the system and risks from existing or future nuclear plants and shift the paradigm to efficient use of sustainable energy.

Chanukah: Festival of Lights, Conservation & Renewable Energy

Hanukkah Menorah

Photo courtesy Joseph Skibell

The Jewish celebration of Chanukah, the “Festival of Lights,” commemorates the successful struggle for freedom and independence of Israel from the Selucid Greeks,  about 2200 years ago.  At the conclusion of this war, the Macabees purified The Temple in Jerusalem and sought to relight their “Eternal Lamp.”

They only had enough oil for one day. The process by which they made oil required eight days. Miraculously, one day’s oil lasted eight days.

Clearly, God believes in energy conservation and, as they used olive oil, renewable energy.

A brief history:

Alexander the Great, aka Alexander of Macedonia, acquired the Kingdom of Judah without a battle. But his empire collapsed after his death. The Kingdom of Judah became part of the Selucid Greek Empire. Where Alexander promised the Jews religious freedom, the Selucids demanded that the Jews worship the Greek pantheon. The Jews rebelled, following the Macabees. They won. The Macabees established the Hasmonean Dynasty, which ruled for 101 years, from 164 Before the Common Era, BCE, to 63 BCE, until the Romans came, saw, and conquered.

The Jews, then known as the Judeans, from the province of Judea, subsequently rebelled against Rome.  The First Jewish–Roman War took was fought from year 66 to year 73, the Kitos War was fought from 115 to 117, and the Bar Kokhba revolt was fought from 132 to 135. From these rebellions we get two holidays: Tesha B’Av, which is observed by Jews as a day of mourning, and Christmas, which is generally not celebrated by Jewish people today.

More details are on Wikipedia, and, in a more comprehensive fashion, in Jews, God and History, by Max I. Dimont. ASIN: B0012H8UJI, 1962.

Decison on Keystone XL Pipeline Delayed Until After Presidential Election

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet Via NPR‘s All Things Considered, from correspondent Richard Harris, Feds Delay Decision On Pipeline Project

The State Department is delaying a decision for at least a year on whether to approve the Keystone pipeline. The $7 billion pipeline would carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada, through the U.S. to Gulf of Mexico refineries. Nebraska’s state government and environmental groups have put intense pressure on the State Department and White House to reject the pipeline’s proposed route. NPR’s Richard Harris talks with Robert Siegel about the project.

Audio here (available after 1900 hours Eastern time, 10 November 2011).

Wikipedia’s entry Keystone XL Pipeline has a detailed – and, in our view, fair – account of the controversy.  While on balance we do not support the Keystone pipeline, a very well-reasoned argument in favor of the pipeline can be foundon the blog of JEH Land Clearing, from which we’ve taken the following map of the proposed pipeline (route in red; other pipelines indicated are already in existence/operation).

The Texas economy will benefit from the increase in production. The area east of I-35 is consistently in economic hardship (Port Arthur’s unemployment rate is hovering around 15%), and the construction, land clearing, surveying and refinery jobs will help lower the staggering unemployment rate. It is estimated that the Keystone Pipeline will help create over 20,000 jobs. Texas alone will see over $2.3B in new spending and the US will see about $20B in new spending. The increase of personal income in the state will be about $1.6B and the US will see an increase of $6.5BB. Profits will be re-invested in the local economy improving the quality of life and increasing the number of business in the area. Regardless of where you stand on this issue, one fact remains; the only one way to get heavy crude from Canada to the Texas gulf coast is a pipeline.

Excerpted from Oil Pipeline Invigorates Texas Economy

We support public works projects as economic stimulus, particularly those which come with improvements to energy and other infrastructure; in our view a massive wind/solar public works project in Texas might have the same effective economic stimulus with a better energy outcome, with a significantly lower environmental impact

What JEH doesn’t mention are the costs in terms of environmental damage, water, and health effects. These are long term costs, which are, in the parlance of neoclassical economics, “externalized,”or pushed into the future, and pushed off the balance sheets, kind of like CDO’s, or Collatoralized Debt Obligations, made famous by the financial crisis. Ecological economics recognizes that these costs must be considered, just as recent economic history forces us to recognize the real value of mortgages and mortgage backed securities. As we are learning, ignoring risk is unwise. Put bluntly, the Keystone XL pipeline is kind of like a $1.0 Million “McMansion” sold for $25,000 down, with a $1.0 Million mortgage which is, of course, a negatively amortized interest-only note for the first 5 years – at which time the borrowers will have to pay $1.1 Million, plus interest. But in reality, the $5 billion pipeline is like an aggregated set of five thousand negatively amortizing $1.0 Million toxic McMortgages on McMansions built of radioactive materials on toxic waste sites below sea level.

We intend to elaborate on the costs, risks, and benefits of pipelines in future posts; as well as a series on the Bonneville Power Administration, which has been supplying electricity in the Northwest for almost 75 years, and which we think is a model for energy-related public works projects.

Libyan rebels' DIY weapons

Widely distributed technological expertise makes all sorts of things possible.

Typically, Do-It-Yourselfers frequent hardware stores, lumber-yards, and work in their basements, garages, and other workshops. They build things – bookshelves, computers, etc. Henry Ford built his first cars – Model A’s – on his farm Ford Motor Co. Steve Wozniak built the Apple I in Steve Jobs’ parents garage. Apple.

They also build revolutions. Engineers in Libya have been experimenting with mounting machine guns on remote control toys. They are also cleaning and using weapons they capture from Gadafi forces. Fire Arm Blog, Nifty Remote Weapons, Weaponomics.  See also “DIY Weapons of the Libyan Rebels,” on the website of The Atlantic magazine.

Technological parity coupled with a will to defend yourself and your family or people wins wars – which we have seen in the American Revolution, the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948, ’56, ’67, and ’73, Viet Nam, the Afghan war against the Soviet Union.

This bodes well for the people of Libya, but does not bode well for the forces of Muammar Qaddafi.

 

Flooding at Nebraska Nuclear Power Plants

 

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant, June 16, 2011, flooded. No longer on the banks, but now flooded and within the Missouri River.

Courtesy of AP, NY Times, Fellowship of the Minds


Follow LJF97 on Twitter  Tweet Omaha, Nebraska. Flooding on the Missouri River at The Cooper and Fort Calhoun nuclear power stations. I suppose the good news is that given the flooding, one or both of these two Nebraska plants will be decommissioned after the floodwates recede, so there will soon be one or two fewer nuclear plants operating in the United States. And terrorists will have a difficult time attacking these plants now that they are surrounded by a moat. The real good news, if you can call it that, is that these floods are the result of heavy rains, not a tsunami triggered by an earthquake. The pressures are different. It is a steady buildup and which will be followed by steady decrease. It is not the surge / vacuum of a tsunami. And there was no earthquake and series of aftershocks.

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