Author Archives: Jonathan Soroko

About Jonathan Soroko

Revived from the dead, 18-July-2013

Social Networks Reduce Disaster Risk

Ben Franklin is reputed to have said “we shall hang together, or we shall hang separately.” Long-time readers know that it is our firmly-held conviction that social networks matter more than any single type of preparation or cached equipment. Here is an excerpt from The Key To Disaster Survival? Pals, Neighbors broadcast on the July 4, 2011 edition of All Things Considered:

A researcher’s data suggest that ambulances, firetrucks and government aid aren’t the principal ways most people survive during and recover after a disaster. Instead, it’s the personal ties between members of a community that really matter.

If you want an easy template for doing this in your community, check out the 3 Steps Program.

Strait of Hormuz: oil supply chokepoint

Another example of the risk of petroleum supply interruption: the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. While it’s hard to imagine that United States military forces wouldn’t prevail in a conflict with Iran, that confrontation might easily escalate.

Excerpted from Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz by Clifford Krauss  at NYTimes.com:

HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.

An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according tomost Middle East political experts.

United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.

Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analyst

What does this mean? We think it’s most important in understanding how fragile our dependence on oil is – particularly because protecting requires us to ask our military personnel to put themselves in harm’s way. Petroleum dependence – energy policy – shouldn’t be a casus belli. We have other choices – conservation and renewable energy sources. If we reduce our dependence on oil, we win in many ways: reducing risk to our armed forces; cheaper energy, and better environmental and health outcomes.

Reducing the power of the current Iranian ruling elite is a bonus.

Iran, Oil, & the NY Times

Iranian Warships in Gulf of Hormuz. Ebrahim Norouzi/Jamejamonline, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Norouzi, Getty Images

While Iran is threatening to block the Straits of Hormuz, and various agents are calling for military actions, the crew of an American destroyer patrolling the North Arabian Sea rescued 13 Iranian fishermen captured by Somali pirates in November, 2011. U.S. Navy Rescues Iranians Held by Pirates, 1/6/12, Robert Mackey and J. David Goodman. The article quotes one of the rescued fishermen, Fazel Ur Rehman, 28, “It is like you were sent by God. Every night we prayed for God to rescue us. And now you are here.”

Asian Customers of Iran Look for Other Oil Sources, 1/7/12, Keith Bradsher and Clifford Krauss,

In Bold Step, Europe Nears Embargo on Iran Oil, 1/5/12, Steven Erlander,

Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier, 1/4/12, J. David Goodman,

Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz, 1/5/12, Clifford Krauss,

Noise Level Rises Over Iran Threat to Close Strait of Hormuz, 12/29/11, Rick Gladstone,

Oil Prices Predicted to Remain Above $100 a Barrel Next Year, 12/29/11, Diane Cardwell and Rick Gladstone, Lawrence J. Furman, at Popular Logistics, forecast, “The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.”

Iran Calls Threat of Sacntions from European Union ‘Economic War’, 12/29/11, J. David Goodman,

Iran Threatens to Block Oil in Reply to Sanctions, 12/28/11, David E. Sanger and Anne Lowrey,

Iran Admits Sanctions are Inflicting Damage, 12/20/11, Rick Gladstone,

Given the implications of petroleum shortages and/or price spikes, current tensions with Iran are a serious matter, entirely aside from one’s opinions about Iranian government’s behavior. We note that in preparing a piece about the possibility of Iran attempting to limit world petroleum supplies, a search of the The Times for “+Iran +Oil” yields no less than ten pieces of reporting. We see our role, at Popular Logistics, as framing and interpreting what is going on. We strive to be primary sources of understanding while second-hand sources of news, especially in foreign theaters such as the Middle East, Europe and Asia. We rely on The New York Times, WNYC (our local NPR affiliate), the World Factbook of the CIA, and other agencies of the United States Government, the WorldWatch Institute and other Primary sources of news and information.  And so, we pay our taxes, because, as Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said, “Taxes are the price we pay for civilization,” and (to pat ourselves on the back) we subscribe to the New York Times and WNYC.

Red Cross Physician Kidnapped in Qetta, Pakistan

Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said.

Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said.

“He was in a clearly marked vehicle with an ICRC emblem. Several armed gunmen hijacked him,” he said, adding that Dale’s family had been informed. He added: “We call for Khalil’s rapid and unconditional release.”

Dale was based in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled south-western Baluchistan province. He was working as the ICRC’s health programme manager. It is unclear how long he had been based in the region, or whether his family were in Pakistan or in the UK.

The Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the incident. No one immediately claimed responsibility, but criminal gangs have often targeted foreign aid workers in the hope of securing large ransoms for their release.

“We are checking all routes out of the districts, but we have not been able to trace that vehicle,” Nazeer Kurd, a senior city police official, said. “We are trying to ensure that the vehicle does not leave Quetta.” Baluchistan is Pakistan’s biggest but poorest province, where Baluch separatist militants are fighting a protracted insurgency for more autonomy and control over the area’s natural resources.

Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

Four health workers, including two doctors, were kidnapped by militants last week from the Pishin area of Baluchistan, near Quetta. They were freed after a shootout between police and their kidnappersFrom The Guardian, Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said.

Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said.

“He was in a clearly marked vehicle with an ICRC emblem. Several armed gunmen hijacked him,” he said, adding that Dale’s family had been informed. He added: “We call for Khalil’s rapid and unconditional release.”

Dale was based in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled south-western Baluchistan province. He was working as the ICRC’s health programme manager. It is unclear how long he had been based in the region, or whether his family were in Pakistan or in the UK.

The Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the incident. No one immediately claimed responsibility, but criminal gangs have often targeted foreign aid workers in the hope of securing large ransoms for their release.

“We are checking all routes out of the districts, but we have not been able to trace that vehicle,” Nazeer Kurd, a senior city police official, said. “We are trying to ensure that the vehicle does not leave Quetta.” Baluchistan is Pakistan’s biggest but poorest province, where Baluch separatist militants are fighting a protracted insurgency for more autonomy and control over the area’s natural resources.

Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

Four health workers, including two doctors, were kidnapped by militants last week from the Pishin area of Baluchistan, near Quetta. They were freed after a shootout between police and their kidnappers

Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said. Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said. “He was in a clearly marked vehicle with an ICRC emblem. Several armed gunmen hijacked him,” he said, adding that Dale’s family had been informed. He added: “We call for Khalil’s rapid and unconditional release.” Dale was based in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled south-western Baluchistan province. He was working as the ICRC’s health programme manager. It is unclear how long he had been based in the region, or whether his family were in Pakistan or in the UK. The Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the incident. No one immediately claimed responsibility, but criminal gangs have often targeted foreign aid workers in the hope of securing large ransoms for their release. “We are checking all routes out of the districts, but we have not been able to trace that vehicle,” Nazeer Kurd, a senior city police official, said. “We are trying to ensure that the vehicle does not leave Quetta.” Baluchistan is Pakistan’s biggest but poorest province, where Baluch separatist militants are fighting a protracted insurgency for more autonomy and control over the area’s natural resources. Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran. Four health workers, including two doctors, were kidnapped by militants last week from the Pishin area of Baluchistan, near Quetta. They were freed after a shootout between police and their kidnappers

Guardian: Guangdong bus driver killed by H5N1 flu strain

A Chinese man diagnosed with the country’s first case of bird flu in more than a year has died in the southern city of Shenzhen.

The 39-year-old bus driver was admitted to hospital with pneumonia but tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus. This is the third case in two weeks. This report is disturbing on its face. That said, we wonder how many people around the world would be willing to bet their lives on the Chinese government’s veracity. Please feel free to comment, but let’s try to keep it polite. Excerpted from
Bird flu virus kills Chinese man

A Chinese man diagnosed with the country’s first case of bird flu in more than a year has died in the southern city of Shenzhen.

The 39-year-old bus driver was admitted to hospital with pneumonia but tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus.

The strain has a high mortality rate, killing up to 60% of infected humans.

The man, surnamed Chen, developed a fever on 21 December and was admitted to hospital on Christmas Day. Local health officials said 120 people who had close contact with Chen have not developed any abnormal symptoms.

The Chinese health ministry has informed the World Health Organisation about the case, health officials added.

During the month prior to his fever, Chen, apparently had no direct contact with poultry and did not travel out of Shenzhen.

The city, home to 10 million people, is separated by a small river from Hong Kong, where 19,000 chickens have been slaughtered after two were confirmed last week to have died from the H5N1 virus.

With thanks to The Guardian and staff for their coverage.

The city, home to 10 million people, is separated by a small river from Hong Kong, where 19,000 chickens have been slaughtered after two were confirmed last week to have died from the H5N1 virus.

Keynes, Krugman continue to give good advice

Paul Krugman continues to be persuasive, although we worry that it’s necessary for him to make this point. Excerpted from “Keynes Was Right:”

“The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.” So declared John Maynard Keynes in 1937, even as F.D.R. was about to prove him right by trying to balance the budget too soon, sending the United States economy — which had been steadily recovering up to that point — into a severe recession. Slashing government spending in a depressed economy depresses the economy further; austerity should wait until a strong recovery is well under way.

Unfortunately, in late 2010 and early 2011, politicians and policy makers in much of the Western world believed that they knew better, that we should focus on deficits, not jobs, even though our economies had barely begun to recover from the slump that followed the financial crisis. And by acting on that anti-Keynesian belief, they ended up proving Keynes right all over again.

In declaring Keynesian economics vindicated I am, of course, at odds with conventional wisdom. In Washington, in particular, the failure of the Obama stimulus package to produce an employment boom is generally seen as having proved that government spending can’t create jobs. But those of us who did the math realized, right from the beginning, that the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (more than a third of which, by the way, took the relatively ineffective form of tax cuts) was much too small given the depth of the slump. And we also predicted the resulting political backlash.

So the real test of Keynesian economics hasn’t come from the half-hearted efforts of the U.S. federal government to boost the economy, which were largely offset by cuts at the state and local levels. It has, instead, come from European nations like Greece and Ireland that had to impose savage fiscal austerity as a condition for receiving emergency loans — and have suffered Depression-level economic slumps, with real G.D.P. in both countries down by double digits.

 

MIT Study suggests U.S. power grid improvements

From MIT Study: US Can Meet Power Grid Challenges of Future, by Gino Troiani,

According to a recent two-year study commissioned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology‘s Energy Initiative, if certain measures are taken, the answer is yes. The study was composed of 13 MIT faculty members, 1 Harvard faculty member, 10 graduate students and an advisory panel of 19 leaders from academia, industry and the government.

“The grid will face a number of serious challenges over the next two decades, while new technologies also present valuable opportunities for meeting these challenges,” the study says.

The report concluded the grid is adequate to meet today’s demands. However, it also said the measures the U.S. takes now will dramatically affect the grid throughout the next 20 years.

Some of the study’s key findings and recommendations include:

  • The diversity of ownership and regulatory structures within the U.S. grid complicates policy-making.
  • To combat cyber security threats, a single federal agency should be given the responsibility across the entire power sector, while increasing bulk and power and distribution systems.
  • Utilities should generate “fixed” network costs via customer charges that do not vary with the amount of electricity they use, but rather at set fees.
  • The electric and power industry should invest more revenue in the research and development of computational tools for bulk power system operations, methods for wide-area transmission planning, and procedures for response and recovery from cyberattacks.
  • Increased data and research on the grid should be compiled and made more easily accessible to help improve the decision making process in the areas of developing and improving the  grid.

Via ExecutiveGov.com.

Vaccine Developed Against Ebola: Jennifer Carpenter, BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16011748

Scientists have developed a vaccine that protects mice against a deadly form of the Ebola virus.

First identified in 1976, Ebola fever kills more than 90% of the people it infects.

The researchers say that this is the first Ebola vaccine to remain viable long-term and can therefore be successfully stockpiled.

The results are reported in the journal Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences.

Ebola is transmitted via bodily fluids, and can become airborn. Sufferers experience nausea, vomiting, internal bleeding and organ failure before they die.

Although few people contract Ebola each year, its effects are so swift and devastating that it is often feared that it could be used against humans in an act of terroism.

All previously developed vaccines have relied on injecting intact, but crippled, viral particles into the body.

Long-term storage tends to damage the virus, paralysing the vaccine’s effectiveness.

The new vaccine contains a synthetic viral protein, which prompts the immune system to better recognise the Ebola virus, and is much more stable when stored long-term.

The vaccine protects 80% of the mice injected with the deadly strain, and survives being “dried down and frozen,” said biotechnologist Charles Arntzen from Arizona State University who was involved in its development.

He said the next step is to try the vaccine on a strain of Ebola that is closer to the one that infects humans.

 

Morgan Stanley settles charges of price-fixing in NYC area electricity maret

In a settlement which doesn’t seem to have been much noticed by major media outlets, Morgan Stanley has agreed to pay $4.8 million to settle charges of acting, in concert with energy company Keyspan, in anticompetitive behavior affecting the NYC electricity market. Here’s the Department of Justice press release of September 30, 2011, with the caption Morgan Stanley Rigs NYC Electricity Bids  Here’s an excerpt.

The Department of Justice today announced a settlement with Morgan Stanley that requires Morgan to pay $4.8 million for violating the antitrust laws by entering into an agreement with KeySpan Corporation that restrained competition in the New York City electricity capacity market. The department said the agreement likely resulted in a price increase for electricity retailers, which, in turn, led to increased electricity prices for consumers. The department’s Antitrust Division today filed a civil antitrust complaint in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York and submitted a proposed settlement that, if approved by the court, would resolve the lawsuit. The settlement provides for disgorgement of profits for a violation of the antitrust laws and requires Morgan to pay $4.8 million to the United States. The department previously entered into a settlement with KeySpan that required the company to disgorge $12 million in profits for its role in the agreement, which was approved by the court in February 2011. “This settlement with a major financial institution will signal to the financial services community that use of derivatives for anticompetitive ends will not be tolerated,” said Sharis A. Pozen, Acting Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division. “Disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, as was paid here, is an effective Antitrust Division tool to remedy harm to competition.” According to the complaint, in January 2006, KeySpan and Morgan executed a financial derivative for New York City capacity while Morgan simultaneously entered into an off-setting derivative with Astoria Generating Company, KeySpan’s largest competitor in the capacity market. The agreements effectively transferred to KeySpan a financial interest in Astoria’s capacity, thereby ensuring that KeySpan would withhold substantial output from the capacity market and increase prices. For its part, Morgan earned revenues by retaining the spread between the fixed prices of the two derivative agreements. The anticompetitive effects of the Morgan/KeySpan agreement lasted until March 2008, when regulatory conditions eliminated KeySpan’s ability to affect the market price of electricity capacity.

While we’re happy that the excellent attorneys in DOJ’s Antitrust Division brought this case,  the press release leaves seval questions neither asked nor answered:

  1. How much did Morgan Stanley and Keyspan make? Without knowing that, it’s impossible to determine whether the settlement is sufficient.
  2. Did anyone at Morgan Stanley or Keyspan lose their job, receive a demotion, or lose a bonus?
  3. Did the settlement negotiations include  an agreement to issue a press release on a Friday, lessening the likelihood that major news  organizations would see the release before it went stale?

Measles outbreak in Europe

Via the BBC, alarming news. The World Health Organization warns of measles outbreak in Europe, which has included 26,000 cases and nine deaths.
From WHO issues Europe measles warning:

European countries need to act now to tackle measles outbreaks, the World Health Organization warns. The WHO report says there were over 26,000 measles cases in 36 European countries from January to October 2011. Western European countries reported 83% of those cases, with 14,000 in France alone. In England and Wales, there were just under 1,000 confirmed measles cases in that period – compared with just 374 in the whole of 2010. Altogether, measles outbreaks in Europe have caused nine deaths, including six in France, and 7,288 hospitalisations. France has now launched a nationwide campaign to raise awareness about the need for MMR vaccination. Jean-Yves Grall, the Director-General for Health in France, said: “France can simply not afford to have deaths, painful and costly hospitalisations, disruptions to work and school from a completely vaccine-preventable disease.” Ninety per cent of European cases were amongst adolescents and adults who had not been vaccinated or people where it was not known if they had been vaccinated or not. And measles from Europe has been linked to outbreaks in several other countries including Brazil, Canada and Australia.

‘Potential danger’

Zsuzsanna Jakab, WHO regional director for Europe, said: “The increase in measles in European countries reveals a serious challenge to achieving the regional measles elimination goal by 2015.

“Every country in the European region must take the opportunity now to raise coverage amongst susceptible populations, improve surveillance and severely reduce measles virus circulation before the approaching measles high season.”    A spokeswoman for the Health Protection Agency, which covers England and Wales, said: “Anyone who missed out on MMR as a child will continue to be at risk of measles, which explains why we are continuing to see cases in a broad age range.”     “We are again reminding parents and young adults of the importance of immunisation. We cannot stress enough that measles is serious and in some cases it can be fatal.”  “Measles is a highly infectious and potentially dangerous illness which spreads very easily. Whether you stay here in the UK or travel abroad it is crucial that individuals who may be at risk are fully immunised.” 

XXX

revenge of the electric car – NYTimes.com Search

Times Topics: Tesla Motors

If a struggling Detroit could not make an electric vehicle, then a Silicon …. Chris Paine, the director of “Revenge of the Electric Car,” discusses …

Times Topics: Elon Musk

The director, whose “Revenge of the Electric Car” had its premiere this past weekend, was joined onstage on Saturday by Elon Musk, the Tesla Motors chief …

Times Topics: Tribeca Film Festival (NYC) – – Times Topics

13 hours ago … The director, whose “Revenge of the Electric Car” had its premiere this past weekend, was joined onstage on Saturday by Elon Musk, the Tesla …

Budget Shortfall Could Imperil Subsidies for Electric Vehicles …

The best known subsidy for electric vehicles, a $7500 tax credit that qualifying buyers … Chris Paine Returns with ‘Revenge of the Electric Car’ …November 10, 2011 – Wheels

via revenge of the electric car – NYTimes.com Search.

In Thailand, an Innovative Fight Against Cervical Cancer – NYTimes.com

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

Published: September 26, 2011

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POYAI, Thailand — Maikaew Panomyai did a little dance coming out of the examination room, switching her hips, waving her fists in the air and crowing, in her limited English: “Everything’s O.K.! Everything’s O.K.!”

Small Fixes

A special section on low-cost innovations that can save thousands of lives.

Vinegar to Fight Cervical Cancer

Stamp-Sized Liver Tests

Sharing the Burden of AIDS

Poisonous Mosquito Delicacies

One AIDS Fix Progresses Slowly

Preventing H.I.V. in Babies

One Entrepreneur’s Vision

A Global Triumph From Tiny Errors

Thailand’s Village Volunteers

Why Simple Ideas are Sometimes Complex

In the Field

Vitamins for Babies

Self-Adjustable Eyeglass Lenses

Bubbles for Babies

A Biodegradable Toilet

The Compression Suit

The Year-Long Straw

An Outhouse That Recycles

The Sari Filter

Overdose Rescue Kits

Shining a Light on Jaundice

Texting Away Counterfeit Drugs

Safe Birth Kits

Cheap Showers

Reader Challenge

Can You Solve This Global Health Issue?

The New York Times

Thailand is a leader in adopting the cryotherapy technique.

Translation: The nurse just told me I do not have cervical cancer, and even the little white spot I had treated three years ago is still gone.

What allowed the nurse to render that reassuring diagnosis was a remarkably simple, brief and inexpensive procedure, one with the potential to do for poor countries what the Pap smear did for rich ones: end cervical cancer’s reign as the No. 1 cancer killer of women. The magic ingredient? Household vinegar.

via In Thailand, an Innovative Fight Against Cervical Cancer – NYTimes.com.

Lifehacker: 10 must-haves for Tech Friendly Go-Bags

We very much like Whitson Gordon’s  Top 10 Gadgets You Should Have In Your Go Bag – it’s certainly an outstanding and well-reasoned Go-Bag list for a tech-savvy person who has to relocate. We’d only add what not only belongs in every go-bag – but, as the 9/11 Commission recommended, the one always-carry item for everyone ought to be a compact,  rugged, LED flashlight. Here are some excerpts – with our additions and comments:

10. Cable Shorteners of the biggest annoyances the traveling geek encounters is a tornado of tangled cables in her backpack. If you need to neatly organize your cables, grab some cable shorteners like the stylish, cheap Applecores. MacBook users will also love the Quirky PowerCurl wrapper for their AC adapter (though make sure you’re wrapping that cord correctly), and a simple binder clip makes a dandy headphone wrapper for the traveling music junkie.

In our experience, the weakest link in cable systems are delicate connectors at the ends of cables – particularly the spring-clips on RJ-45 and RJ-11 connectors, and recent experiences with micro-USB connected have led us to believe that the best practice for storing and transporting cables is not only wrapped for shortening, but also in containers to protect the integrity of connectors and cable.

 

 

I’ve had good luck with