Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

China Air Pollution: The Bitter Years Return?

China Air Pollution 中国空气污染

The Bitter Years Return 的苦涩年返回

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

During the “Bitter Years” from 1958 to 1962, an estimated 15 to 43 million people died of starvation in China (wikipedia). Mao, who ate well during that time, did not want help from the west. Fast forward to today. It has been reported that due to air pollution, an estimated 650,000 people died in China in 2006, and another estimated 1.2 million died in 2010. Knowing these 2 data points of this dynamic system, we can plot a curve. The blue line assumes a linear curve, the red line, the exponential uptick of a sigmoid curve.  Assuming reinforcing feedback, the red curve is more likely.

The three most important questions are

  1. “How serious is the air pollution?”
  2. “What will it take before the Chinese government acts?”
  3. “What will be the delay between action and results?

The short answer to Question 1 is “Very.” If this is as serious as I think it is, the challenge for the government of the People’s Republic of China as for other governments, will be to stop polluting and clean up the pollution it has allowed to be dispersed into the bio-humano-sphere. However, this conflicts with the apparent goal of the Chinese government to be the world’s biggest producer of stuff without regard to pollution.

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Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 Months

PLEnergyPort

After Six Months,

  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 61.78%
  • The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 0.39%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.49%
  • The S&P 500 is up 14.76%.

These data are summarized in table 1 and discussed below the fold. Continue reading

First Responder Deaths Demand Response

Ground Zero in Ruins. Courtesy CBS News

Ground Zero in Ruins. Courtesy CBS News

Adan Gonzalez, 69, died of throat cancer in April, 2015. Mr. Gonzalez had been a photographer and a volunteer at the World Trade Center site, working for two years as a photographer documenting the event and serving other volunteers.

Mr. Gonzalez is one of 1,712 First Responders who died due to the Sept. 11 attacks, 412 who died the day of the attacks (wikipedia) and 1,300 who died from medical complications arising from their search and rescue work. Over 40% of the 4,053 people who died in or resulting from the attack, not counting soldiers killed in Afghanistan or Iraq, or who died after returning home were first responders engaged in search and rescue or cleanup operations, a humanitarian mission.

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Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.

 

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

The trend is clear – if 4 1/2 months is enough to establish a trend – the Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 58.78% from 12/21/12 while the Fossil Fuel portfolio is only up 6.71%. The Dow is up 15.49% and the S&P 500 is up 14.24% in that same period.

Is it because Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has reached 400 PPM? (NPR / NY Times) Is Wall Street reacting because Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, and other investment banks and hedge funds are hiring analysts from Greenpeace or people like me with MBAs in Sustainability from Marlboro, the Presidio, and the Bainbridge Institute? Continue reading

Atmospheric CO2: 400 PPM on May 9, 2013

Atmospheric CO2, Measured at Mauna Loa, 1960 - Present

Atmospheric CO2, Measured at Mauna Loa, 1960 – Present

Atmospheric CO2 hit 400 PPM on Thursday, May 9, 2013, as measured at the Koana Loa observatory. This is an increase of 85 ppm, 26.98%, from 1960. This is why Bill McKibben, of 350.org, calls our planet Eaarth. It’s weather, climate, and ecology are different than the one those of us who are over 30 – or over 12 – were born on.  National Geographic, summed it up well,  here:

“Greenhouse gas highest since the Pliocene, when sea levels were higher and the Earth was warmer.” 

The scientists are taking the data – increased atmospheric carbon dioxide – and asking two questions:

  1. Why is it increasing?
  2. What are the likely effects?

The journalists and bloggers, like Geoffrey Lean, at the Telegraph, asks, here, “Did the contentious global warming ‘hockey stick’ graph get it right?”  He could have asked “Did the scientists – and the environmentalists – get it right?  And if so, shouldn’t we stop burning fossil fuels?” 

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Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response

PLPort_Results.2013.04

Wall St. NYC, April 26, 2013. Monday, April 22, 2013 was Earth Day.  At the close of trading Thursday, April 25, 2013,  as compared to my reference date of Dec. 21, 2012, the Dow Jones Industrials was up 12.3% , the S&P 500 closed up 10.84%, the “Popular Logistics Fossil Fuel Reference Portfolio was up 1.8% and the Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio was up 34.85%. (This is in line with the trend noted in my previous post, March 23, 2013., in the series that began Dec. 21, 2012.) And Shell Oil has temporarily suspended exploration and drilling operations in the Arctic. (Click here for Forbes). The stock portfolio data are summarized below, in Table 1. That’s the good news (unless you’re long on fossil fuels).

Here’s the bad news. “Fracking” is widespread and unregulated (click here).  An oil spill dumped 500,000 gallons from Exxon pipeline onto Mayflower, Arkansas and into Lake Conway (click here).  A fatal fire & explosion in West, Texas left 35 dead, probably including 16 firefighters and emergency responders (click here).  A fire and multiple explosions on gasoline transport barges docked in Mobile, Alabama injured 3 (click here).  Continue reading

Fuel Barges Explode – 3 Injured

Image of fuel barges on fire.

Fuel Barge Fire, Mobile Alabama, 4/24/13

As reported by Ed Payne, CNN, here, At least six explosions rocked two fuel barges carrying gasoline as they were docked on the Mobile River, in Mobile Alabama. All people are believed to be accounted for.Three people were taken to the USA Medical Center with burns. They remain in critical condition. The barges were being prepped for reload. The fires were monitored from a distance.

I wonder if authorities in Alabama chose to monitor the fires from a safe distance rather than risk the lives of emergency responders. Perhaps mindful of the 10 to 16 first responders killed in the fire and explosion at the West, Texas fertilizer plant last week (my coverage is here).

Thinking long term, we should be developing an efficient and sustainable energy infrastructure with fuel from kitchen waste, farm waste, and sewage.

If the Nega-Watt is the Least Expensive, Cleanest and Most Valuable unit of energy, and the Nega-Fuel-Watt is the 2nd Least Expensive, 2nd cleanest and 2nd Most Valuable, then the “Fuel-From-Waste-Watt” is the 3rd Least Expensive, 3rd Cleanest and 3rd Most Valuable unit of energy.

A candidate for General Assembly to represent NJ Legislative District 12, and an analyst with Popular Logistics, Lawrence J. Furman holds a Bachelor’s in Biology, and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, Vermont. He also has experience in information technology. He can be reached at ‘Larry” at Furman For New Jersey. com

Earth Day 2013, Furman for Assembly, NJ LD 12

The Candidate at Monmouth Battleground State Park

Manalapan, NJ, Earth Day, 2013. I am campaigning to represent New Jersey’s Legislative District 12 in the General Assembly, April 22, 2013, Monmouth Battleground State Park, 6:00 AM. On YouTube.

On Earth Day, 1970, I was working to clean up a beach.

Today, Earth Day, 2013, I am working to clean up the economy.

Both require teamwork.

I’m standing here at Monmouth Battleground State Park – where Washington won a decisive battle against the British – ready to launch a battle against our competitors in other countries. Continue reading

35 Dead in Fire and Explosion at Texas Fertilizer Warehouse. Others Missing.

West Fertilizer Explosion. Courtesy Mother Jones.

West Fertilizer Explosion. Courtesy Mother Jones.

West, Texas. April 18, 2013. An explosion during a fire at a fertilizer plant in West, Texas killed 35, including at least 10 firefighters and EMS responders. At this time, 6 other EMS responders are missing. If not found alive, and the outlook appears grim, the death toll will jump to 41, including at least 16 First Responders. This is a devastating loss of first responders in a community of 2600 and a tragic loss to the families and friends of those killed. 160 people were injured, according to CNN, here.

Detail of the Explosion, Courtesy NY Daily News

Detail of the Explosion

This news clip, from CBS, reports, “The explosion, with the force of a small earthquake, was felt 15 miles away. The blast knocked out windows half-a-mile away.”

Cloud from explosion at Texas fertilizer plant.

Cloud from explosion at Texas fertilizer plant.

West Fertilizer Company may have been negligent – that’s for the courts to decide.Ricardo Lopez, writing in the LA Times, reported, “West Fertilizer Co. paid $5,250 last year to the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, PHMSA, over violations discovered in 2011.”   CBS also reported that the last EPA inspection was 1985 and that West Fertilizer Co was fined in 2006 for failure to implement a disaster plan.

The Houston Chronicle, reported, here, that

  • West Fertilizer was cited in 2006 for lacking a permit,
  • An intermediate school near the plant has been evacuated “more than once” due to fumes and pollution from the plant,
  • The plant had not been inspected by Occupational Health and Safety Administration, OSHA in more than 10 years,
  • West Fertilizer, incorporated in Texas in May 2004, did not get its state air pollution permit until 2007 after a complaint was filed about foul odors from the facility.

The Chronicle, also reported, here, that Donald Adair, the owner of Adair Grain and West Fertilizer, issued a statement Friday afternoon expressing sympathy,

My heart is broken with grief for the tragic losses to so many families in our community. I know that everyone has been deeply affected by this incident. Loved ones have been injured or killed. Homes have been damaged or destroyed. Our hearts go out to everyone who has suffered.

I was devastated to learn that we lost one of our employees in the explosion. He bravely responded to the fire at the facility as a volunteer firefighter. I will never forget his bravery and his sacrifice, or that of his colleagues who rushed to the trouble.

The citizens of Texas and of the United States need to decide if the regulatory regimes are inadequate. Government safety regulations are like government regulations prohibiting drunk driving. Drunk drivers don’t mean to do any harm, they just want to get home after having a good time. Remember that canonical accounting rule: “Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity.” Business owners want to make money selling valuable products, and just want to add a few dollars to “Owners’ Equity” perhaps by subtracting a few dollars from the category of “Safety & Emergency Preparedness” in the “Liabilities,” column.

Final questions:

If fertilizer is so explosive why is it good to use on our lawns and use it to grow our food? What alternatives are available?

Mr. Adair sounds like an alcoholic who has just learned that he has killed someone after driving while intoxicated and crashing into another car. If we prosecute drunk drivers for killing by accident while under the influence, or creating what Justice Holmes called “A clear and present danger,” shouldn’t we prosecute owners of corporations for killing by accident, or creating a clear and present danger, especially when, as appears to be the case here, there is a pattern of disregard for regulation?

The staff, budgets, and authority of regulatory and enforcement agencies such as PHMSA, OSHA, and the EPA have been cut under the administrations of President George W. Bush and by the House of Representatives under the leadership of John Boehner. Should we continue to cut the staff and budgets of PHMSAOSHAEPA and other regulatory and enforcement agencies or should we rethink our approach to law enforcement and regulation?

Exxon Manages No-Fly Zone Over Arkansas Oil Spill

No Fly Zone over Mayflower, Arkansas

No Fly Zone over Mayflower, Arkansas

An Exxon pipe leaked, flooding 500,000 gallons of crude oil onto Mayflower, Arkansas. Exxon is in charge of a No Fly Zone in the vicinity of the spill.

  1. Do independent observers who want to witness the tar sands spill disaster have to ask Exxon’s permission?
  2. Why Is Exxon Controlling the No-Fly Zone Over Arkansas Tar Sands Spill?
  3. Because it wants to? Because it can?

Because … the FAA put an Exxon employee in charge of a  no-fly zone over Exxon’s latest oil spill.

Contact the FAA at (866) 835-5322 and the White House  at (202) 456-1111 to ask Why is an oil company managing a no-fly-zone over an oil spill it caused? Why is a publicly traded for-profit oil company that caused an oil spill managing air traffic in the vicinity of the oil spill?

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Mayflower Oil Spill – Economic Externalities

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson's Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson’s Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Back in the mid-1970’s, Amory Lovins, currently with the Rocky Mountain Institute, said “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t need to buy.” He called this the “Nega-Watt.” We now know that the Nega-Watt is also the cleanest unit of energy. And the second cheapest – and second cleanest – is the one which doesn’t need fuel and doesn’t create waste, which might be called the “Nega-Fuel-Watt” or “Nega-Waste-Watt.”

Edward McAllister, reported in Reuters, covered by Yahoo News,

Warren Andrews had just finished putting up balloons for his stepdaughter’s 18th birthday party at their suburban home in Mayflower, Arkansas, when his wife came inside and said something was wrong.

After stepping out of his house, and taking one glance, he immediately dialed 911.

“I don’t know what’s going on, but I’ve got a river of oil coming down the street at me,” Andrews told the operator.

Five minutes later, the slick of noxious black crude spewing from a ruptured Exxon Mobil pipeline was eight feet wide, six inches deep and growing fast.

We now know that an Exxon Mobil pipeline, like the proposed Keystone Pipeline, carrying Canadian crude oil ruptured on Friday, March 29, 2913, spilling an estimated 500,000 gallons of oil into the grounds of the town. 500,000 gallons is roughly 11,000 barrels.

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Fracking: Scientifically Proven Clean – But Is It ‘Junk Science’?

 

President Reagan against the US Flag

Ronald Reagan, Courtesy Google Images

The petrochemical industry says “Trust us. The Fracking fluids are water mixed with sand, and a few – 0.5% – other chemicals, household chemicals, like chlorine and benzine.”

According to SourceWatch,

There were more than 493,000 active natural-gas wells across 31 states in the U.S. in 2009, almost double the number in 1990. Around 90 percent have used fracking … according to the drilling industry.[2] Nationwide, residents living near fracked gas wells have filed over 1,000 complaints regarding tainted water, severe illnesses, livestock deaths, and fish kills.

While 1000 complaints on 493,000 wells is a low percentage, if fracking was safe and clean, why the complaints and controversy? President Reagan used to say “Trust people, but check.” Well,

  • If the speed limit was 350 miles per hour; then no one would get a speeding ticket.
  • If the tax code was “Whatever you feel like paying;” then I certainly would pay less taxes.
  • So if fracking was safe and clean; then why the complaints?

The industry says “Trust us, fracking is clean…. We adhere to all regulations…. ” But what are the regulations?

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Energy Portfolios At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: Up 3%

PopLog_EPort.130322

As of the close of trading on March 22, 2013, excluding the effects of dividends, the Sustainable Energy reference portfolio I created on 12/21/12 is up 21.67%, from $8.0 Million to $9.73 Million. Excluding the effects of dividends, the Fossil Fuel Reference Virtual Portfolio is up 2.7%, from $8.0 Million to $8.221 Million in the same time frame. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.85% and the S&P 500 is up 8.88%.  Note that this is a simulation.  Note also that this doesn’t take into account the effects of dividends.

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