Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

Vogtle Update: Another Cost Overrun and Another Delay

The Vogtle nuclear complex

Back in June, 2022, the Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors, not shown above, each 1.215 Gigawatts of nameplate capacity was pegged at $34 Billion, or $14 per watt, here.

Update: 25 May, 2023, Vogtle 3 online. Total cost estimated “close to $35 Billion, $14.4 per watt for the 2.43 GW reactors, AP News, here.

Update: 1 May, 2024, Vogtle 4 online, US Energy Information Administration, here.

$34 Billion would buy roughly 17 – 20 Gigawatts of wind capacity or 12 – 15 Gigawatts of solar capacity today.

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Unsustainable Energy and Climate Reality

“Climate models,” according to Daniel Baer and Noah Gordon, in the Washington Post, here, “are complicated things. They must consider a staggering number of mathematical and physical variables to predict, for instance, how emitting a given amount of carbon dioxide will change the flows of air, water and heat between the atmosphere and the oceans. More sophisticated projections go further, showing how temperature changes will affect rainfall in a certain region, which in turn will affect crop yields and, as a result, the carbon cycle.”

However, as illustrated above, from “Climate.gov,” here, atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations have increased close to 50% since 1750, when they were under 280 ppm, to around 420 ppm today.

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Presidents and Dictators

A President

You can read a man like a book. His eyes, his smile, his body language reveal his character. How does he respond to adversity? Does he panic and blame others? Does he seek and listen to counsel and take action? Does he have a sense of humor? Can he take a joke?

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Dissent in Russia

Elena Kovalskaya, formerly director of the Meyerhold Center theater

“You can’t work for a killer and get paid by him,” Elena Kovalskaya, who runs the Meyerhold Center theater, said on Facebook, and resigned.

The theater — named after late Russian playwright Vsevolod Meyerhold — also spoke out on Facebook, saying that Russia’s relentless aggression in Ukraine has “now come into tragic conflict with our mission…. We cannot be silent about this. We only have this left to say: ‘No to war,'” the performing arts venue said in the social media post. “War is much more than disrespect for a person, and much more horrifying. War is the death of a person, it is the killing of people.” The theater also thanked Kovalskaya for her “courage.” 

Prominent Russians shocked by the invasion of Ukraine have gone public with their opposition to the war, despite the professional and personal risks that come with dissent on such a sensitive issue in Russia.

More than 1,800 people were arrested at rallies across Russia on Thursday night as prominent Russians from the worlds of entertainment, business and journalism have risked their livelihoods in order to speak out.

Elena Chernenko, left.

Elena Chernenko, the veteran diplomatic correspondent for newspaper, Kommersant, wrote. “War has never been and will never be a method of conflict resolution and there are no excuses for it,” she wrote. Nearly 300 journalists have signed, including representatives of state-run media. In retaliation, she has been expelled from the diplomatic pool, which she has covered for more than 11 years, for “unprofessionalism”.

France Intercepts Russia-bound Cargo Ship.

France Intercepts Russian Cargo Ship bound for St. Petersburg

Putin will notice this.

The French navy has intercepted a Russian cargo ship in the English Channel that was bound for Saint Petersburg, the BBChas reported.

French officials said the ship was intercepted according to new European Union sanctions imposed on Russian entities and individuals after Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine.

An official told the BBC: “A 127 meters long Russia cargo ship called the ‘Baltic Leader’ transporting cars has been intercepted overnight by the French Navy in the Channel and escorted to the Port of Boulogne-Sur-Mer in Northern France.

The Sanctions Will Succeed

Putin’s Mob. Stay tuned.

You can’t get Russian Vodka in Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, and British Columbia, Canada (CTV News). Putin won’t notice.

Russians are protesting the invasion of Ukraine, across Russia, by the thousands (NY Times). Putin won’t care. There may be too many to put in jail – and anyway, they already are inside the gulag, they are already in jail, a jail called the Russian Federation.

However,

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Putin, Tzar Vladimir: Chessmaster or Fool?

Putin appears to be recreating the Russian Empire – with himself, of course, as Tzar. While calling himself “President” not “Tzar,” he has succeeded within Russia and he has extended his dominion to Belarus and eastern Ukraine.

Russia

The rest of Ukraine is obviously next. And then? The Baltics? Poland? Czechia & Slovakia?

I have friends who remember the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956 (click here) and of Czechoslovakia in 1968 (here).

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Russia V the United States

Lend Lease Monument, Fairbanks, Alaska

What Putin doesn’t want to consider is that the Soviet Union didn’t defeat Nazi Germany. Like the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union withstood Nazi Germany. This was especially true at Stalingrad, where the Nazis AND the Soviets each lost about 1.0 million soldiers. Neither the Soviets nor the British might have withstood the Nazis without the US Lend Lease program, which provided food, trucks, and weapons to UK and USSR.

My father drove and maintained some of those Chevy trucks and Jeeps. He would think Putin is an idiot, a dangerous idiot, who apparently doesn’t really know or or understand 20th Century Russian history. But just like some in America don’t want to teach American history, teaching instead some sanitized pablum, it seems that they didn’t teach Russian history in Soviet schools.

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This Changes Everything … Maybe

The discovery of graphene by Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov, for which they won the 2010 Nobel Prize in Physics ( details at Nobel.org and at Graphene-Info) may be the most significant non-medical scientific event since the discovery or invention of the transistor in 1947. Graphene is a two-dimensional lattice of carbon – think of a flexible and one atom thick flat diamond – with very interesting physical and quantum properties.

And it may change the world.

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Tesla, the Auto Industry, and the Oil Industry, Nov. 2021

Tesla, with a market capitalization of $1.137 Trillion at the close of trading on Friday, November 19, 2021, is worth more than GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Daimler Benz, VW COMBINED. 45% more.

Add in the value of Nisan, Hyundai, and Stellantis, which owns Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, and other brands, and Tesla is still worth 25.8 % more than the rest of the major auto companies. See Table 1.

More surprising is that Tesla, is worth 39% more than Exxon Mobil, Shell, Conoco Philips, Chevron Texaco, and BP Amoco combined. See Table 2.

Arguably, Toyota set the stage for energy efficiency with the 1997 launch of the Prius (click here). And Fisker, launched in 2007, could have been Tesla. Coupled with the fact that other car companies are introducing electric vehicles, including the Chevy Bolt, the Ford Mustang Mach-e and the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Fisker Ocean, etc. it is clear that with Tesla, Elon Musk has changed the world.

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Energy Portfolios, 8 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 78.3%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 48.8%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space, as of the close of trading on 8/20/21, eight (8) years and eight (8) months later

The Sustainable Energy companies have increased dramatically in value, the Fossil Fuel companies have decreased in value.

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