Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

The Economic Value of Solar Power

One of my friends recently complained that the electric bill for his business has doubled in the last 5 years – and runs to about $500,000 per year. I was stunned. Being a ‘numbers guy’, I ran the statistic backwards and realized that it’s a 15% annual growth rate. I also realized that it’s the same for me at home. My power and fuel bills, electricity, heat, and gasoline have also doubled, to about $6,000 a year, over the last few years.

I told him that just like I could install a photovoltaic solar power system on my roof that would generate all the electricity I need, he could use solar power to generate much of the electricity he needs. His response was ‘You’re may be right. But how?’ he asked.

‘Simple’, I said, ‘just put solar modules on the roof. Add an inverter to convert DC power to AC, a meter than can run backwards, and you’re in business. Just like we’re talking about for the school system.

On top of that, the Solar Renewable Energy Certificate, or SREC, value of the power, in New Jersey, add considerably to the value of that power. The SRECs work like this. The Board of Public Utilities tells the Electric Utilities that they have a choice. Generate power using solar, pay a fine, or buy SRECs. The SRECs today are worth MORE than the price of each kwh if generated by those old 19th and 20th Century technologies, coal, oil, and nuclear. Click here for the NJ Clean Energy Program, click here for SREC trading and historical values.

Bill Scott, of Akeena Solar , says “Solar will be competitive WITHOUT INCENTIVES when electricity is at $0.21 to $0.25 per kwh.” We at Popular Logististics think may be the summer of 2009. The incentives, however, make it much better, today.

According to the Asbury Park Press, “School District Sold on Solar” in addition to the money they don’t spend on electricity, and any revenues they hope realize from the sale of carbon offsets, the Toms River, NJ School District expects to realize $1.25 to $1.5 million from the sale of their SRECs next year.

Southwest Airlines and The Federal Aviation Administration

From the Houston Chronicle, Inspector blasts FAA for Southwest relationship“Southwest Airlines exerted undue influence within the Federal Aviation Administration, creating an atmosphere that let the carrier fly aircraft after cracks had been discovered in a jet’s fuselage, inspectors told a House panel.”

And from the Washington Post, FAA Derailed Safety Alarms, “They also said the FAA had gone from aggressively regulating airlines to treating them like customers or clients. Lawmakers and outside safety experts have expressed similar worries about regulators’ coziness with the carriers.”

I won’t fly if in order to get on a plane and be confident that it will take off, fly, and land, I’ll have to go to the airport and inspect the plane. Forget the fact that I’m not qualified; it’s inefficient for every passenger, or even one out of 10,000, to go to the airport, review the maintenance records, and study the planes. But isn’t that’s why we have an FAA? Isn’t that why we have a government?

Isn’t it the role of government to provide police and defensive forces to protect law abiding citizens from thieves, scoundrels and external threats; from invaders and from thugs who would point a gun at me and say ‘your money or your life’? That doesn’t mean I don’t have the right to self-defense; it means that I have the right to expect that the police and the courts will protect my rights, including my right to self-defense.

Take that one step further. If I can count on the government to protect me against a thug who will steal my money at gunpoint, then I should be able to count on the government to protect me from someone who, in Woody Guthrie’s words, will ‘rob me with a fountain pen’ by pouring toxic wastes into the air we breathe and rivers we drink from and swim in, or perhaps by ignoring airplane maintenance regulations.

This doesn’t make me a liberal or a conservative, but it sure doesn’t make me a Bush Cheney McCain Republican. It might make me a John Warner Republican, but they pushed him out of the Party. I guess it makes me a liberal because it leads me to believe that the government has the obligation to inspect and regulate airplanes, taxis, roads, cars, and to make sure that we have clean air, clean water, and healthy food, and to educate our children and to do the kinds of things that Edwards was talking about on the stump.

When you believe, as Reagan put it, that “the scariest sentence is ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help’” you’re saying we don’t want foxes guarding the henhouse, we don’t want anyone guarding the henhouse, in fact we’re going to sell the wood, the chickens will stay put.

The Day After Three Mile Island

March 28, 2008 was the 28th Anniversary of the Meltdown at Three Mile Island, which makes March 29 the 28th Anniversary of the Day After Three Mile Island.

Still, it’s hard to say ‘Happy Anniversary.’ The last nuclear power plant to come on line in the United States, the Watts Bar plant in Tennessee, took 23 years to complete. And no new nuclear power plants have been ordered or built.

This is in part because of Three Mile Island, and its sister-disaster, Chernobyl. While the American nuclear power industry says ‘We do it better’ the truth of the matter is that American reactors are safer because American anti-nuclear activists have forced the United States government to pay attention and American nuclear plant owners and operators to build in redundant safety systems. Continue reading

John McCain, Sunnis and Shiites

Senator John McCain touts his foreign policy experience, yet he doesn’t know the difference between the Sunnis and the Shiites in Iraq and Iran. Sunnis are a majority in the Arab and Muslim world. Most of the Arabs, Turks, Kurds, and Iranians are Sunni. Turks, Kurds, and Iranians are not Arabs. Iraqis are Arabs, and most are Shiite.
Not knowing the difference is kind of like not knowing the difference between Catholics and Protestants in Ireland. Or Baptists, Catholics, Episcopalians, and Mormans in the United States. Or Puerto Ricans, Italians, and Irish Catholics in Brooklyn.

(Note – this blog is generally more about Policy than Politics

. However, the two are inseparable, and people who would make and enforce Policy

, i.e., Presidents of the United States, must understand Politics .)

Cheney: Obama's Speech "Important."

Interview of the Vice President by Martha Raddatz, ABC News

Shangri-La’s Barr Al Jissah Resort & Spa

Muscat, Oman

10:20 A.M. (Local)

Q Mr. Vice President, I want to start with a speech Barack Obama gave. I doubt you’ve seen the entire speech, but he denounced comments by Reverend Wright, but he didn’t distance himself completely.Do you think he did the right thing?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Martha, one of the things I’ve avoided so far is getting in the middle of the Democratic presidential primary process. And I think I’ll stay there.

Q But it was an important speech.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: It was an important speech, …

Click here for the full transcript, on ‘WhiteHouse.gov’

Obama – in Context – A More Perfect Union

We The People, In Order To Form A More Perfect Union

Barack Obama, in Philadelphia, PA, Monday, March 18, 2008, excerpts.

Two hundred and twenty one years ago, in a hall that still stands across the street, a group of men gathered and, with these simple words, launched America’s improbable experiment in democracy. Farmers and scholars; statesmen and patriots who had traveled across an ocean to escape tyranny and persecution finally made real their declaration of independence at a Philadelphia convention that lasted through the spring of 1787.

we may not look the same and we may not have come from the same place, but we all want to move in the same direction – towards a better future for our children and our grandchildren.

This belief comes from my unyielding faith in the decency and generosity of the American people. But it also comes from my own American story.

I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slave-owners — an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.

It’s a story that hasn’t made me the most conventional candidate. But it is a story that has seared into my genetic makeup the idea that this nation is more than the sum of its parts — that out of many, we are truly one.

I have already condemned, in unequivocal terms, the statements of Reverend Wright that have caused such controversy. For some, nagging questions remain. Did I know him to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes. Did I strongly disagree with many of his political views? Absolutely – just as I’m sure many of you have heard remarks from your pastors, priests, or rabbis with which you strongly disagreed.

But the remarks that have caused this recent firestorm weren’t simply controversial. They weren’t simply a religious leader’s effort to speak out against perceived injustice. Instead, they expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country – a view that sees white racism as endemic, and that elevates what is wrong with America above all that we know is right with America; a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.

As such, Reverend Wright’s comments were not only wrong but divisive, divisive at a time when we need unity; racially charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems – two wars, a terrorist threat, a falling economy, a chronic health care crisis and potentially devastating climate change; problems that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all.

There is a young, twenty-three year old white woman named Ashley Baia who organized for our campaign in Florence South Carolina. She had been working to organize a mostly African-American community since the beginning of this campaign, and one day she was at a roundtable discussion where everyone went around telling their story and why they were there.

And Ashley said that when she was nine years old, her mother got cancer. And because she had to miss days of work, she was let go and lost her health care. They had to file for bankruptcy, and that’s when Ashley decided that she had to do something to help her mom.

She knew that food was one of their most expensive costs, and so Ashley convinced her mother that what she really liked and really wanted to eat more than anything else was mustard and relish sandwiches. Because that was the cheapest way to eat.

She did this for a year until her mom got better, and she told everyone at the roundtable that the reason she joined our campaign was so that she could help the millions of other children in the country who want and need to help their parents too.

Now Ashley might have made a different choice. Perhaps somebody told her along the way that the source of her mother’s problems were blacks who were on welfare and too lazy to work, or Hispanics who were coming into the country illegally. But she didn’t. She sought out allies in her fight against injustice.

Anyway, Ashley finishes her story and then goes around the room and asks everyone else why they’re supporting the campaign. They all have different stories and reasons. Many bring up a specific issue. And finally they come to this elderly black man who’s been sitting there quietly the entire time. And Ashley asks him why he’s there. And he does not bring up a specific issue. He does not say health care or the economy. He does not say education or the war. He does not say that he was there because of Barack Obama. He simply says to everyone in the room, “I am here because of Ashley.”

“I’m here because of Ashley.” By itself, that single moment of recognition between that young white girl and that old black man is not enough. It is not enough to give health care to the sick, or jobs to the jobless, or education to our children.

But it is where we start. It is where our union grows stronger. And as so many generations have come to realize over the course of the two-hundred and twenty one years since a band of patriots signed that document in Philadelphia, that is where the perfection begins.

The Future of Energy

Thursday, March 6, 2008, I attended a seminar on solar and wind power at the Atlantic County Utilities Authority, ACUA, clean energy plant, hosted by Cassandra Kling of Clean Energy Holdings. It’s a small plant: 7.0 MW of wind and 0.5 MW of solar, it provides about 0.1% of New Jersey’s power. On the way back I drove into the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in Ocean County, NJ, to look around and to get a visceral feel for the place. Oyster Creek provides about 10% of New Jersey’s power. (Click here for the official story or here for NJPIRG.)

There are armed guards outside the nuclear plant. There are watchtowers, presumably with armed sentries. They really don’t want people looking around, “getting a feel for the place”. They looked me over, looked at my driver’s license, searched my car – looked in the trunk, looked under the hood, looked in the front seat, the back seat, under the car, and then escorted me out of the complex. I felt like Arlo Guthrie in ” Alices’s Restaurant” (Click here for Arlo on YouTube“, here for Arlo.net) exceptin’ the fact that I wasn’t arrested.

Continue reading

League of Conservation Voters and MoveOn Want to ask the Candidates about Energy and Global Warming

The League of Conservation Voters, LCV, and Move On.Org are asking people to urge TV news reporters to ask the candidates about Global Warming, Climate Change, and Energy. People at LCV and MoveOn have noticed that the candidates were asked about Global Warming six times. They were asked about extra-terrestrials three times.Click here, for the Move On page, here , for the League of Conservation page.

Move On and LCV have also partnered with local groups like Environment New Jersey in this effort (click here)

Popular Logistics endorses this effort. Before reviewing the questions I’d like to ask, I would like to note, for the record, an observation.

The debate Thursday, Jan. 31, 2008, between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, sponsored by CNN, the LA Times, and Politico, and broadcast on CNN, like everything broadcast on CNN, provided opportunities for commercials. The advertisers included the coal industry.

Here are the questions I’d like to ask:

  1. Given the urgency of global warming, will you commit to take action on the issue in your first 100 days in office? If yes, what specifically would you do?
  2. Will you commit invest in and deploy clean renewable energy technologies, including solar, wind, geothermal, marine current, cogeneration and conservation?
  3. Will you commit to cutting our use of old fashioned or problemmatic technologies, including coal, oil and nuclear — which are neither clean nor renewable?
  4. Will you push a mandatory cap on emissions that achieves at least a 20 percent reduction by the end of next decade?
  5. Will you call a major international summit on global warming in your first 60 days and work to sign a new international treaty by the end of your first year?

We want to know where all the candidates stand on global warming, climate change, and energy, and what they would do as President.

We also want to know how CNN can be expected to ask tough questions about energy policy, global warming, and climate change when it relies on advertising revenue from an energy industry which by it’s existence, is triggering global warming and climate change? Should the debates be sponsored by non-commercial interests?

NRC Failing in Oversight

Janet Tauro, of the NJ Environmental Federation, raises a disturbing question — is the NRC as incompetant as FEMA?

The NRC’s mission is to protect citizens, not put up roadblocks to a full and open airing of safety concerns, but as Janet Tauro writes in the Asbury Park Press,

“It should not have been citizens who made public the safety problems at Oyster Creek. It should have been the NRC.

It took a whistleblower who took pictures of a bunch of sleeping guards at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station in Pennsylvania to wake up Congress about NRC’s lackadaisical approach to citizens’ safety concerns. Rep. John D. Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, announced recently that an investigation by the Office of Inspector General that found “questionable decisions by the commission with respect to nuclear power plant relicensing” also will be under review.

Some of these Questionable Decisions:

  • The NRC’s refusal to evaluate the terrorist risk of elevated fuel pools jam-packed with thousands of pounds of highly radioactive fuel rods,
  • The lack of a workable evacuation plan,
  • The transfer of the state’s most senior nuclear expert after he publicly chastised NRC officials for not imposing penalties on Exelon after the department discovered safety commitments were not being honored,
  • The discovery of radioactive Cesium in soil samples outside of the plant,
  • Massive fish kills in Barnegat Bay, and
  • The mysterious emptying of water collection buckets shortly before NRC and state inspectors arrived to draw samples to try to determine the source of leaks within the drywell, the reactor’s steel containment vessel.

In addition, Rep. Dingell’s committee might review:

  • Transcripts from our precedent-setting hearing before the Atomic Safety Licensing Board and decide whether preferential treatment was given to Exelon and the NRC, while NJ Environmental Federation’s attorney and expert were badgered and interrupted.
  • Judge Anthony J. Baratta’s minority opinion that affirmed our coalition’s contention that there is no analytical proof that the drywell meets current safety standards, and that those standards must be met as a condition of relicensing.
  • The NRC’s attempt to change the basis of Exelon’s current licensing, which stipulates adherence to accepted engineering standards for safety. When an NRC inspector affirmed that the drywell did not meet minimum safety standards for thickness, the NRC tried at the last minute to change its rules, saying that it wasn’t necessary, just preferable, to meet those standards.

The NRC must regulate nuclear power, to guarantee that nuclear power plants are operated safely. Or the NRC should be shut down, and every nuclear power plant as well.

The Wolf Inside

This is not, strictly speaking, emergency preparedness, public health, or environmental policy.  But it’s in the intersection. Click Here.

An old Cherokee was teaching his grandchildren about life. He said to them, “A battle is raging inside me … it is a terrible fight between two wolves. One wolf represents fear, anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority and ego. The other stands for joy, peace, love, hope, sharing, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, friendship, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion and faith.”

The old man fixed the children with a firm stare. “This same fight is going on inside you, and inside every other person, too.”

They thought about it for a minute and then one child asked his grandfather,

“Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee replied: “The one you feed.”

Nuclear Power – Not Green, Not Cheap. But It’s A Security Nightmare.

This Letter to the Editor, written by Larry, was published in the Asbury Park Press , Wednesday, Jan 23, 2008 (Click Here).

The full text is reproduced below.

Nuclear power too dangerous.

Nuclear power is not green or cheap. It is a security nightmare.

When you look at mining, milling and transporting nuclear fuel, nuclear power emits four to five times as much carbon dioxide as wind and solar. The fuel cycle also creates massive amounts of radioactive waste — 100,000 metric tons per plant per year. Thermal pollution from Oyster Creek kills fish, shellfish and amphibians. And radioactive wastes must be isolated from the environment for a long time.

No new nuclear power plants were built in the United States after electricity was deregulated. That’s not because of the Three Mile Island accident or the Chernobyl disaster, and not because of the protests against nuclear power or rational fears of the technology, but because of the time and expense to build new nuclear power plants. When you look at the capital costs of building nuclear plants, and add the costs of insurance, evacuation plans, security systems and government regulation, nuclear power becomes too expensive to compete.

So in 2005, the federal government mandated $125 million in tax breaks for each new nuclear power plant and provided loan guarantees of 80 percent of a plant’s cost, including overruns. Taxpayers pay for those tax breaks and loan guarantees. That does not make it cost-effective; it just shifts the burden.

Nuclear power is a security nightmare. If the Sept. 11 killers had crashed one of the hijacked planes into Oyster Creek rather than the World Trade Center or the Pentagon, much of the Jersey Shore would be like the area around Chernobyl — condemned, abandoned and uninhabitable.

If we were smart, we would move forward quickly on offshore wind, photovoltaic solar, geothermal, ocean current turbines and conservation.

Larry Furman

Al Gore, Nobel Laureate

Excerpts from Gore’s Speech © THE NOBEL FOUNDATION 2007:

The distinguished scientists with whom it is the greatest honor of my life to share this award have laid before us a choice between two different futures – a choice that to my ears echoes the words of an ancient prophet: “Life or death, blessings or curses. Therefore, choose life, that both thou and thy seed may live.”

We, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency – a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential even as we gather here. But there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst – though not all – of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.

However, despite a growing number of honorable exceptions, too many of the world’s leaders are still best described in the words Winston Churchill applied to those who ignored Adolf Hitler’s threat: “They go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent.”

So today, we dumped another 70 million tons of global-warming pollution into the thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet, as if it were an open sewer. And tomorrow, we will dump a slightly larger amount, with the cumulative concentrations now trapping more and more heat from the sun.

Full text: Click Here:

Privacy v The Professional Competency of an Addict

Thousands of physicians practice while in rehab, according to Associated Press, covered in Wired . Should they be out on disability?

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Troubling cases in which doctors were accused of botching operations while undergoing treatment for drugs or alcohol have led to criticism of rehab programs that allow thousands of U.S. physicians to keep their addictions hidden from their patients.

Nearly all states have confidential rehab programs that let doctors continue practicing as long as they stick with the treatment regimen. Nationwide, as many as 8,000 doctors may be in such programs….

Now some high school math: According toPhysician Executive, July August, 2005, quoted on BNET Research,on average Primary Care physicians in the U. S. see 85 patients per week. If a doctor sees 85 patients per week, and sees patients 42 weeks per year, allowing time off to play golf, attend conferences, and take vacations, he or she sees 3,570 per year. For 8,000 doctors, that adds up to 28.56 million people per year. The story continues …

These arrangements largely escaped public scrutiny until … California’s medical board outraged physicians across the country by abolishing its … program. A review concluded that the system failed to protect patients or help addicted doctors get better .

Opponents of such programs say the medical establishment uses confidential treatment to protect dangerous physicians.

“Patients have no way to protect themselves from these doctors,” said Julie Fellmeth, who heads the University of San Diego’s Center for Public Interest Law and led the opposition to California’s so-called diversion program.

Most addiction specialists favor allowing doctors to continue practicing while in confidential treatment, as does the American Medical Association.

Supporters of such programs say that cases in which patients are harmed by doctors in treatment are extremely rare, and would pale next to the havoc that could result if physicians had no such option.

Because these events are “rare” doesn’t mean they are acceptable.If “rare” translates to one in 1 million, that’s 29 events per year. Not a lot in a population of 300 million, but too many if you or your child is one of the 29 people. But what is “rare”? One in one million? One in ten thousand? What is the the rate of medical malpractice due to addiction?What is the rate due to operating or practicing medicine while intoxicated?

According to Injury Board, a Medical Malpractice law firm, “a study by Health Grades reports 575,000 preventable deaths /were/ caused by medical errors over a three year period …”

As a patient, I see a physician when I am sick. I want, expect, and am paying for the advice of a competent expert on a potentially life threatening situation.

Perhaps physicians with addictions should be granted some disability compensation while they undergo treatment. It could be bundled with their disability or malpractice insurance – which seems reasonable, if you view addiction as a disability, and given that it also seems reasonable to expect to see a causal relationship between addiction and malpractice.

 

Vinod Khosla v Hermann Scheer

Why is Vinod Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, venture capitalist, and environmentalist, critical of Dr. Hermann Scheer, economist, member of the German Parliment, and author of Germany’s clean energy program?

Is this like a Wind Power advocate from west Texas criticizing California based Solar installer because there is too much rain and cloud cover in Seattle, for solar to work effectively?

Diane Moss

Diane Moss, above, writing on Diane’s POV

, has a comprehensive analysis of Khosla’s criticism of Scheer.

As noted in my previous post, Scheer sayssays “A Solar global economy will enable the total demand for energy and raw materials to be met. … By the systematic use of solar … all material needs of humanity can be satisfied on a permanent basis.” (For the text of the article, click here.) And the fact is that Germany has set the standard.

Then there’s Ausra Solar

, which has some pretty hot technology and hopes to be a pioneer in what the Venture Capitalist might call “The Solar Thermal Space.” Venture Capitalists, including Kleiner, Perkins, Caulfield, and Byers , and Khosla Ventures, have just invested $40 Million in Ausra. And Khosla runs Khosla Ventures. Maybe Khosla’s critical of Scheer because Scheer focuses on PhotoVoltaics, not Solar Thermal. Are Khosla’s criticisms of Scheer and Solar in Germany like Bill Gates’ criticisms of Steve Jobs and the Mac – i.e. different – and competing technology?