Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

Red White and Blue – Green Power

There is a tremendous market for photovoltaic modules and wind turbines. Consequently the stock price of companies that make them well are going thru the roof. (Look at Akeena, Evergreen Solar , First Solar, Sun Power, Vestas Wind, World Water and Solar. ) I think these will follow the trajectory of Apple, Compaq, Intel, Microsoft, Sun, etc, (I hope so, because I invested in them, but that’s another story.)

We could buy solar panels made in China, India, Phillipines, Germany, Spain, or – god forbid – the US. The Sierra Club, NJ PIRG , and the Steel Workers want to manufacture turbines and PV Solar mods in New Jersey, which will create 18,600 jobs over the next 10 years. Click here for local news.

The opponents whine that government investment in infrastructure is wasting Tax revenues. I believe that governments, like people, can squander their resources or invest them wisely. For example, the $2.4 Trillion we are “investing” in the war in Iraq could build and install PV Solar modules that produce 1 to 1.5 KW for every man, woman, and child in America. Building and modernizing factories, especially in the nascent clean energy sector is wise and patriotic investment.

Infrastructure and Emergency Shelters

If every elementary school in the country had a Photovoltaic Solar system installed on the roof, then in a ‘Katirina like event’ each school would be an emergency shelter with power. If terrorists took one out, there’d be another one a short distance away.

Solar Panels work when the sun shines.

The money we are spending on the war in Iraq – currently estimated at $2.4 Trillion – would pay for about 370 gigawatts of PV Solar generating capacity, about 830 gigawatts of offshore wind electric capacity and about 1,200 gigawatts of land based wind capacity. (Solar is about $6.5 billion per gigawatt, offshore wind is about $2.89 per gigawatt, and land based wind is $2. billion per gw.)

Which would make this country more secure? The War in Iraq or an investment in sustainable energy?

Energy: Where do we go from here? Solar? Wind? Nuclear? Coal? Oil? Negawatts?

What do we do next? Solar? Wind? Nuclear? Coal? Oil? Negawatts?

Burning coal and oil create greenhouse gases and other pollutants. Nuclear power produces radioactive waste and a prodigious amount of heat pollution. Nuclear and fossil fuels require mines, mills or wells, and they are really bad for the environment, causing everything from pollution to global warming.

Negawatts makes sense. Hybrid cars get great gas mileage and offer a smooth, quiet, comfort. Every barrel of oil we don’t burn is better for our economy. Every barrel of oil we don’t buy from Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Venezuela is $80 or $90 or $100 that doesn’t go into the hands of people like Achmadinejad, Bandar, or Chavez. That’s good for us and bad for the terrorists.

Solar and Wind are not perfect. People complain that they don’t look pretty. But they create jobs not pollution. They help our national security infrastructure. And they look fine to me. I’d rather see solar panels on my roof and wind turbines on my horizon then global warming and my money going to thugs like Achmadinejad.

Is America a Third World Country?

Once we inspired the world with hope. The Declaration of Independence, The Constitution, The Bill of Rights, these defined the rights of man, all men, and women, and denied the privilege of the self-proclaimed nobility.

Today:

We export food and raw materials.

We import most of our manufactured goods.
We have created a huge private army.

We are in debt up to our eyeballs.
Unlike every other Western country, we don’t provide health care for our citizens.
We teach to the tests, but our education systems are failing. Most, if not all, the Republican Presidential Candidates, and the President, deny scientific theory.
We manufacture less and less.
We don’t do basic research. American companies that still do basic research do it in Asia.
We, who flew to the moon and back, are giving up the space program.
We design less and less.

We are even selling our infrastructure: our roads, highways, and bridges, to the highest bidder.

Once we inspired the world with hope. The Declaration of Independence, The Constitution, The Bill of Rights, these defined the rights of man, all men, and women, and denied the privilege of the self-proclaimed nobility.

Now we allow the government to read our mail and listen to our telephone conversations – for our own protection.

Write your Rep in Congress: in the Senate, and the House.

Sustainable Housing

If each of the 28 panels in the Sean Godsell’s Future Shack, click here for Jon’s post, was a 160 to 200 watt Photo Voltaic solar module, of the type manufactured or used by Akeena Solar

, Evergreen Solar

, First Solar , SunPower, World Water & Solar

, etc

. etc., the structure would be rated at 4.480 to 5.6 kW. In other words, it would be sufficient to power a small house – say your typical 1800 sq ft 3 bedroom single family home anywhere in the US (except the Pacific North-West).

Prius V Hummer – the Battle for the Streets

NYC LimosNYC DOT

This battle is being fought, and will be won, on the streets. And in New York City the hybrids are winning. New York’s Dept. of Transportation and other agencies are replacing their Ford Taurus and Contours with Prius and Civic Hybrids, not Hummers.

As of May of this year, 375 of approx. 13,000 yellow cabs had hybrid engines. The City has mandated that by 2012, 100% of the yellow taxi fleet must be hybrids. Link to NYC press release here. The new Ford Escape Hybrids get 30 MPG. The vehicle they will replace, the Ford Crown Victoria, gets 14 mpg. Taxi drivers in NYC absorb all the operating costs, including gas. So if they can spend less money on gas – they pocket the difference, and they make more money. $9,000, assuming 80,000 miles and $3.00 per gallon.

The next step will be the 38,540 livery vehicles licensed by the Taxi and Limousine Commission, often referred to as “black cars,” the predominant model being black Lincoln Town Cars, which also get about 12 miles per gallon.

There is no government mandate to switch, however, a combination of market forces and one government incentive seems to have sparked the beginning of a change in the right direction. Outside Goldman Sachs‘ offices on Pearl and Broad, across the street from Fraunces Tavern, at any given time, you can see two or three Prius “limos” among the Town Cars. The Priuses get 40 mpg. The Lincolns get 12. The fuel costs for a Lincoln are about $20,000 per year, three and a half times higher than $6,000 for a Prius. Which translates to $14,000 more for the drivers.

The drivers love them – they pocket the cash. The passengers love them – they are a much quieter ride, they are better for the environment, and as an added bonus, they are permitted to use the High Ooccupancy Vechicle / Low Emissions Vehicle aka (Clean Pass) lanes. In New York rush-hour traffic, this could cut some trips in half – and cut from half an hour to an hour off of a rush-hour trip to Newark or La Guardia.

They’re also good enough for the United States Army’s Special Operations Command, which includes the Special Forces, and would include the Delta Force, if it officially existed.

For other large groups of vehicles – the Postal Service, the New York City Police Department, our ambulances – using hybrid engnes isn’t even part of the public discussion, yet. But it will be. Write your Rep in Congress. Senate – Click Here , House, Click Here.

Prius v Hummer – The Battle for the Brains


Another HummerPrius

An outfit called CNW Market Research, which advertises “Clarity Context Vision” like Fox News uses the phrase “Fair and Balanced,” published a “study” claiming that the Hummer H2 has less of an environmental impact than the Prius. You can look for the 450 + page report here.

CNW asserts that the per mile cost of the Hummer H2 is $3.027 and the Prius is $3.249.

Heidi Hauenstein and Laura Schewel of the Rocky Mountain Institute analyzed CNW report concluded that CNW’s mathematics was flawed. You can find the their report on the web pages of EV World. They said that IF CNW’s methodology is correct, the Prius has a significantly lower impact on the environment than the Hummer. And, by the way, they question CNW’s methodology.

Dr. Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute also weighed in on the debate. (Click Here) He stated “the report’s conclusions rely on faulty methods of analysis, untenable assumptions, selective use and presentation of data, and a complete lack of peer review. Even the most cursory look reveals serious bias and flaws: the average Hummer H1 is assumed to travel 379,000 miles and last for 35 years, while the average Prius is assumed to last only 109,000 miles over less than 12 years. … “Dust to Dust” has already distorted the public debate.”

So here’s what I think.

According to Edmunds, the MSRP of the 2007 Hummer H2 is $54,100. The Prius is $22,175. I assume the vehicles have a lifetime of 100,000 miles and the price of gas is $3.00 per gallon. I know that the EPA estimates for the Prius are 50, and the H2 is so big and so heavy that it is exempt from EPA milage estimates, but I use 40 mpg for the Prius – because that’s what limo drivers who use the Prius in NYC get – and 8 mpg for the Hummer. GM Hummer claims that the Hummer H3 gets 20 miles per gallon on the highway. Maybe they put a hybrid engine in it. Maybe that’s rolling downhill, outfitted for sail, with the engine in neutral and running at a low rpm.

My back-of-envelope reckoning based on EPA milage concludes that the Hummer will burn 12,500 gallons and the Prius 2,500 as they are driven those 100,000 miles.

That’s a difference of 10,000 gallons of gas. At $3.00 per gallon, fuel will cost $37,500 to drive the Hummer and $7,500 to drive the Prius. That’s $30,000 bucks. And if the average price of gas is $4.00 over the life of the vehicle, it’s $40,000.

Ignoring the purchase cost of the vehicle, and assuming $3.00 per gallon, the fuel cost is 38 cents per mile for the Hummer, and 8 cents per mile for the Prius. Factoring the costs to purchase the vehicle, and the cost of oil changes every 3000 miles, (34 oil changes at $25 each) the costs to drive a Hummer H2 are $92,460 while the costs to drive a Prius are $30,525. This works out to 92 cents per mile for the Hummer H2 and 31 cents per mile for the Prius.

So the bottom line is I don’t care what CNW says, altho it would be nice if their arguments were logical, coherent, and based on fact. Regardless, my next new car will be an aerodynamic hybrid.

Hummer v. Prius
Item 2007 Prius 2007 Hummer H2
MSRP $22,175 $54,100
Lifetime Miles 100,000 100,000
Mileage Estimate 40 8
Gallons of gasoline 2,500 12,500
Cost of Gasoline at $3.00 per gallon $7,500 $37,500
Oil Changes 34 34
Cost at $25 each $850 $850
Subtotal, Gas and Oil $8,350 $38,350
Subtotal, MSRP plus Gas and Oil $30,525 $92,450
Cost per mile $0.31 $0.92

I'm Shocked, SHOCKED – We Invaded Iraq for Oil!

Alan GreenspanAlan Greenspan says ‘We invaded Iraq for Oil!’

“I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.”

I’m also shocked that most of the coverage is out of the US.

But, now that the cat is out of the bag, let’s do the math. Iraq, according to the Global Policy Forum, and the CIA, Iraq has 112.5 Billion Barrels of “proven reserves” of oil. At $80 per barrel … Iraq’s oil is worth $9.0 Trillion. We’re only spending $1 trillion, so it’s a pretty good return on investment. 900 percent return on investment for the 112.5 billion barrels of proven reserves.

And they said George W couldn’t do math.

If the “probable” reserves – in addition to the proven reserves – are only another 100 billion barrels – that’s 212.5 billion barrels of oil. Black Gold. Texas Tea. That ups the ante to 1,700% ROI. Why that’s better than Microsoft’s historic $3 thousand in 1986 worth $One Million in 1999. And Iraq’s “probable reserves” are estimated to be another 200 billion barrels. Of course this is assuming we win the war, and get to keep the oil.