Category Archives: Deep Economy

Energy Portfolios: 5 Years: Sustainable Energy Up 130.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 17.4%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading five (5) years later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 148.6%, from $39.58 Billion to $98.4 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 3.8%, from $1.09 Trillion to $1.05 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies is DOWN 2.6%,from $1.03 Trillion on 9/21/17 to $1.007 Trillion on 10/20/17. (See Table 8, below).

In addition, 

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $6.61 Million, down 17.4% overall, down 3.48% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $18.5 Million, up 130.6%, overall and 26.1% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 89.3% overall and 17.86% on an annualized basis; from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 24,782 on 12/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 87.8% overall and 16.63% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,685 on 12/21/17.

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Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 108.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24.3%

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

In recent months the Sustainable Energy portfolio has dropped and the Fossil Fuel portfolio has increased. However, this may prove to be a short term correction that has more to do with macro-geopolitical events emanating from Washington, DC than global macroeconomic factors.    

As of the close of trading 59 months later,

  • The Market Capitalization of the sustainable energy companies is up 148.6%, from $39.58 Billion to $98.4 Billion. (See Table 6, below).
  • The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 3.8%, from $1.09 Trillion to $1.05 Trillion. (See Table 7, below).
  • And the Market Capitalization of the Big Oil companies is DOWN 2.6%,from $1.03 Trillion on 9/21/17 to $1.007 Trillion on 10/20/17. (See Table 8, below)

In Addition

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $6.06 Million, down 24.3% overall, down 4.94% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $16.7 Million, up 108.6%, overall and 22.1% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 80.2% overall and 16.31% on an annualized basis; from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 23,591 on 11/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 81.8% overall and 16.63% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,599 on 11/21/17.

The details are below.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%

PLPort.1510On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on October 21, 2015:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio was worth $5.82 Million, down 27.3% overall, down 9.64% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio was worth $18.0 Million, up 125.0%, overall and 44.13% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.15% overall and 10.99% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 17,169 on 10/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 41.19% overall and 14.54% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,019 on 10/21/15.

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Energy Portfolios, 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuel up 18.4%

PL_Port_1408On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 iMil in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 iMil in the fossil fuel space.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30.16 % from 12/21/12.

  • The S&P 500 is up 39.3% from 12/21/12.

  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio continues to dramatically underperform the reference indices. It is up 18.36% from Dec. 21, 2012 and down 5.67% from July, 2014.

  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 229.19% from Dec. 21, 2012.

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Behind Oz’s Curtain

Bill Thompson

Bill Thompson

Behind Oz’s Curtain of ‘Law and Order’

By C.C. Reilly

Bill Thompson: Schools not Prisons

“The [$34 million] the city wants to spend on [the Brooklyn House of Detention design] contract would be better used as a means to reduce class sizes and build more schools.”
NYC Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr.
November 19, 2009

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Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable up 222%, Fossil Fuel up 25%

PLPortfolio.1407aOn Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. Here are the results since Dec. 21, 2012:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30.26%.
  • The S&P 500 is up 38.04%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio is continues to dramatically underperform the reference indices. It is up 25.08% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is down 11% from last month, but is up 221.77% from Dec. 21, 2012.

The details are below.

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Energy Portfolios: 18 Months: Sustainable up 257.06%: Fossil Fuel up 24.56%

PL_EnergyPort_14_06On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. In the 18 months between the close of trading December 21, 2012 and the close of trading June 20, 2014,

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.46% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 37.27%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio is up 24.56% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 257.06% from Dec. 21, 2012.

In addition to the data summary, below, this post, the 21st in the series, will be followed with a summary analysis.

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21 of 2011 – Most Significant Events of the Year

Tweet Follow LJF97 on Twitter  While it ain’t over till it’s over, 2011 is over. A lot that could have happened, didn’t.  Obama didn’t resign, Donald Trump didn’t throw his hat into the ring or divorce his current wife and marry one or more Kardashians.  Newt Gingrich threw his hat into the ring, but also didn’t divorce his current wife and marry one or more  Kardashians. These are the most significant events of 2011.

  1. Japan, March, 2011 . Nebraska, June, 2011. An earthquake triggered a tsunami which slammed Japan with a 30 foot wave, which shut down twelve nuclear reactors at three sites, triggering melt-downs in three reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi site. We now see radioactive particles in food and soil in Fukushima Prefecture. The United States government recommended an evacuation of a 50 mile radius from the plant – this is a semi-circular no-man’s land of 3,927 square miles. It would be 7,854 square miles but the plant was on the coast and therefore half of this radioactive no-man’s land is in the Pacific Ocean.  The environmental ramifications of radioactive materials spreading over Japan and flowing into the Pacific Ocean are not known (Popular Logistics click hereherehere), however, liabilities to TEPCO and Japan are estimated to $100 Billion (click here). In the United States, two nuclear power plants on the Missouri River, the Fort Calhoun and Cooper plants, were shut-down when the Missouri River flooded (Popular Logistics, here). Eight nuclear power plants from South Carolina to Connecticut were shut down in the aftermath of the earthquake that struck with an epicenter in Virginia August 23, 2011, and Hurricane Irene a few days later (Popular Logistics, here). In the words of Mycle Schneider, describing the World Watch Institute report he authored, “The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima. When the history of this industry is written, Fukushima is likely to introduce its final chapter,” (click here). However, the three melt-downs at Fukushima, coupled with the melt-down at Chernobyl in 1986 and the partial melt-down at Three Mile Island in 1979, suggest a probability of one melt-down every 14 years.
  2. South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont, August, 2011. Hurricane Irene covered an area of approximately 170,000 square miles, or about the size of California.”Hurricane Irene, August 26, courtesy of NASA
  3. Washington, DC, December. 2011. After 4,000 Americans were killed, about 50,000 were wounded, and $1 trillion was spent over 8 years, President Obama ended the American mission in Iraq that Congress authorized in October, 2002, President Bush started in March, 2003 and declared “Accomplished” in May, 2003 (for a timeline, click here).
  4. Washington DC, Abbottabod, Pakistan, May, 2011, American soldiers, on orders from the White House, found and killed Osama bin Laden in a compound in Pakistan (NY Times, click here).
  5. Yemen, In summer, 2011, American military forces, using a drone aircraft piloted from the ground via remote control, from the ground, targeted and killed Anwar al Awlaki, an American born Al Queda operative in Yemen (NY Times, click here).
  6. The hacking group “Anonymous” broke into the computers of the security consulting group “Stratfor” and found 44,188 Encrypted Passwords, of which roughly 50% could be easily cracked. 73.7% of decrypted passwords were weak” (NPR, click here).
  7. The “Stuxnet” computer worm virus, harmelss on PC’s runing MS Windows, Mac OS X, and Linux, and other computers, appears to have targeted centrifuges used in the Iranian uranium enrichment facilities.  While the viruses were discovered in 2010, they became understood in 2011. The virus caused the centrifuges to spin out of control, wrecking themselves (NY Times, here, NPR here, CNET here, Wikipedia here). Continue reading

Worldly Philosophers for Hire

| |Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet | In “Wanted: Worldly Philosophers,” Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman say:|”IT’S become commonplace to criticize the “Occupy” movement for failing to offer an alternative vision. But the thousands of activists in the streets of New York and London aren’t the only ones lacking perspective: economists, to whom we might expect to turn for such vision, have long since given up thinking in terms of economic systems — and we are all the worse for it. ”

 As these pictures, from here, and here, show, the “Occupy” movement supports labor rights and environmental protection. The “Occupiers” do not, therefore, lack perspective.

Image shows union support at Occupy Wall St.They – we – see my work here at Popular Logistics, here at XBColdFingers, or meet me at Zuccotti – lack influence.

Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz are the most famous economists whom Backhouse and Bateman might describe as “Worldly Philosophers with perspective.” Tom Friedman may not have have studied economics; but he too fits the bill of “Worldly Philosopher with Perspective.” There are others.

Sadly, Obama, Biden, Sommers, Geithner, and Chu, like Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rove and Rumsfeld, like Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum, don’t know the answers – and what is worse, they don’t even seem to know which questions to ask.

As noted above, “the ‘Occupiers’ do not lack perspective.  They – we – lack influence.” To correct that I would like to personally extend an invitation to President Obama, Vice President Biden, any members of the cabinet, or the White House or campaign staff and any of the current candidates for the Republican nomination to meet me at Zuccotti Park, or at the time and place of their choosing, for a discussion on the issues.

Taxes – The Price We Pay For Civilization

“Taxes are the price we pay for civilization.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes.

Neil Armstrong on the surface of the moon

Your Tax Dollars At Work, Courtesy NASA

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet Taxes fund Medicare and Medicaid so the poor and the elderly can see a physician and get treatment when they are sick. Taxes fund education for our children and our neighbors children so they can grow up to be doctors, lawyers, engineers, architects,  accountants, teachers, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, builders, actors, etc., so we can buy things that work properly, travel safely, enjoy life, so we can, in a word, thrive.  Taxes fund police, fire-fighting, defense, judicial and other services so we can be secure in our homes and our persons, so the innocent do not go to prison, so the guilty pay their debts to society, and so we, when we do foolish things, can compensate those we accidentally harm. Continue reading

The Crash of 2011

US Capitol Follow LJF97 on Twitter  Tweet I thought the market would crash in the wake of the Earthquake / Tsunami / Nuclear Meltdowns at Fukushima. It didn’t. However, something much less serious may be bringing the market – and the economy – to it’s knees. Politics. The Voice of America reported here that Standard & Poors downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+. Click here for the S&P’s Special Report and here for the full report.

S&P’s analysts wrote:

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.

John BoehnerIt is clear that the emphasis on cutting government spending, eliminating government jobs, eliminating benefits to unemployed citizens, rather than raising revenues and developing infrastructure is not in the long term or short term interests of the United States. As the 512 point drop in the Dow Jones Average, and the downgrade of US debt indicate, Republicans and the Tea Party should be careful for what they wish for – they just might get it.

In the discussions over the debt ceiling, John Boehner said something to the effect that if a family or a business is borrowing too much it simply must tighten it’s belt. Continue reading

Debt, Catastrophe, and Foreign Entanglements

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A young father of our country. The battle raging today between Democrats and Republicans will not solve  the nation’s debt problems, nor avert a financial catastrophe in the future. The politicians do not appear to have a handle on a comprehensive solution to our financial woes. I’m not certain that I do, either, but I feel an obligation as a citizen and a stakeholder in our nation’s present and future to present my ideas and add to the debate.

The issues, as I see them, revolve around the debt ceiling, government obligations, the economy, consumer debt and what George Washington might consider foreign entanglements of the kind he warned us against in his farewell address. The solutions must benefit the American taxpayers today and in the future. Here are the issues and some ideas toward resolution. Continue reading

Roughing It

Interior of Pilatus PC 12.  Follow LJF97 on Twitter  Tweet A s they struggle to pay their bills, forced to work, the wealthy cope as only they can. By sending their children to summer camp in private jets. In  “To Reach Simple Life of Summer Camp, Lining Up for Private Jets” Christine Haughney, in the New York Times,  July 24, 2011, wrote:

 “A turboprop Pilatus PC-12 carrying Melissa T., her daughter, her daughter’s friend and a pile of lacrosse equipment took off for their home in Connecticut, following the girls’ three-week stay at Camp All-Star in nearby Kents Hill, Me. Shortly after, a Cessna Citation Excel arrived, and a mother, a father and their 13-year-old daughter emerged carrying a pink sleeping bag and two large duffel bags, all headed to Camp Vega in Fayette. … as the economy limps along, more of the nation’s wealthier families are cutting out the car ride and chartering planes to fly to summer camps. One private jet broker, Todd Rome of Blue Star Jets, BlueStarJets.com, said his summer-camp business had jumped 30 percent over the last year.”

A quick check on the Camp All Star web site’s “Dates & Rates” page suggests that 3 weeks will cost about $4500.  Trips, horseback riding and hockey are extra. Getting there on a private jet, would add $6,318 to  $15,240 per party, $2,106 to $5,080 per camper for a camper, his or her mom, and a friend.  As I tell people, it’s the trip, not only the destination.

Tell me again, Mr. Boehner, why the wealthy can’t afford to pay taxes?

Beechcraft 350, exteriorI did some checking. Went to Blue Star‘s website, priced a charter for three (3) from Allaire Airport in Monmouth County, New Jersey to Augsta State in Maine. I was surprised at how affordable it is. Blue Star offered 5 alternatives, all turboprops:

  • A Ratheon Super King BE 350, a 9-passenger aircraft, $6,318, which is $2,106 per passenger,
  • The BE-C90, a 6 passenger turboprop, $11,270, or $3,757 per passenger,
  • The BE-100, an 8 passenger turboprop: $12,151 for the trip, $4,050 per passenger.
  • The BE 200, in a 9-passenger configuration, for $13,043, $4,348 per passenger, and
  • The BE-200 in an 8-passenger configuration: $15,240, $5,080 per passenger.

These data are summarized in the table below.

Plane Trip Per Passenger, 3 passengers Per Passenger If Full
Ratheon Super King BE 3509 Passenger Turboprop $6,318 $2,106 per person. $702 per person for 9.
BE-C90, 6 passenger Turboprop $11,270 $3,757 per person. $1,878 per person for 6.
BE-100, 8 passenger Turboprop $12,151 $4,050 per person. $1,519 per person for 8.
BE-200 9 Passenger Turboprop $13,043 $4,348 per person. $1,630 per person for 9.
BE-200 8 Passenger Turboprop $15,240 $5,080 per person. $1,905 per person for 8.

I don’t know if the airline serves food, drinks, or offers in-flight movies. But caviar is only $115 per oz (Russian Sevruga, Caviar Express, Glendale, CA).

Do you Really Want a Balanced Budget Amendment?

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Copyright (C) 2011, Dale A. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.

The rainbow in the grey skies is magical and alluring. But take a look at history before suggesting that the USA should operate under the limitations of a balanced budget. A good place to start is by searching on milestone wars that made or saved this country. Try a search such as “US Revolutionary War debt,” “US Civil War debt,” or “US WW2 debt.”

Then try to decide if the US Constitution had such an amendment from day one would we:

  • Be a British colony?
  • Have slaves?
  • Speak German?

Would we have climbed out of the Great Depression without Roosevelt applying Keynes’ ideas on government projects?

The idea of sending America’s youth into battle without proper equipment and financial support is powerful motivator for me. I was in the Air Force during a budget battle and we literally could not fly our fighters because Congress did not approve enough money for fuel while they argued about the overdue budget! Thankfully that was peace time.

Copyright (C) 2011, Dale A. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.

Let’s take a look at the financial meltdowns this country has encountered and the effects that a Balanced Budget amendment would have had. Take a look at just two, the Great Depression and the 2008 meltdown. The government did not do all the right things to prevent or solve these problems. The solutions (i.e. the recovery) required combination of forces including government spending, Wall Street and Main Street.

Search on “US Depression debt” and read current events to see the impact of such economic events on the deficit. Thank you Uncle Sam for pitching in to take away the pain and suffering that literally millions of Americans faced during these crashes. I am glad you had a credit card to use to save us!

The metaphorical Atlas – is he the government or the taxpayers? Ours is an experiment in government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Is there a difference?

I probably should stop here but …
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Would Ayn Rand be Concerned about Climate Change? You Betcha!

TweetFollow LJF97 on Twitter On Ayn Rand, Objectivism, and Climate Change

Ayn  Rand would not “believe” in climate change.  She would try to objectively determine whether the theory correctly modeled the data. While it is legitimate to question both the conclusions of scientists and the methodologies by which data are gathered, denying objective validity of the data, which people who call themselves “Objectivists” are doing with respect to climate science, is well, in a word, anti-Objectivist, at least as described  by Ayn Rand in 1962.

“The essence of my philosophy” she said, is:

  1. Metaphysics Objective Reality
  2. Epistemology Reason
  3. Ethics Self-interest
  4. Politics Capitalism

“Translated into simple language, ” she continued, “it would read:

  1. “Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed” or “Wishing won’t make it so.”
  2. “You can’t eat your cake and have it, too.”
  3. “Man is an end in himself.”
  4. “Give me liberty or give me death.” Continue reading