Category Archives: Oil

Tesla, the Auto Industry, and the Oil Industry, Nov. 2021

Tesla, with a market capitalization of $1.137 Trillion at the close of trading on Friday, November 19, 2021, is worth more than GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Daimler Benz, VW COMBINED. 45% more.

Add in the value of Nisan, Hyundai, and Stellantis, which owns Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, and other brands, and Tesla is still worth 25.8 % more than the rest of the major auto companies. See Table 1.

More surprising is that Tesla, is worth 39% more than Exxon Mobil, Shell, Conoco Philips, Chevron Texaco, and BP Amoco combined. See Table 2.

Arguably, Toyota set the stage for energy efficiency with the 1997 launch of the Prius (click here). And Fisker, launched in 2007, could have been Tesla. Coupled with the fact that other car companies are introducing electric vehicles, including the Chevy Bolt, the Ford Mustang Mach-e and the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Fisker Ocean, etc. it is clear that with Tesla, Elon Musk has changed the world.

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Drilling for Oil off the Jersey Shore – Forget About It

Oil_ProfitsDeepwater Drilling Offshore of the US yields oil at $57 per barrel (see note 1) and, according to Forbes, the Break-Even price is $65 per barrel. It makes no sense to drill deepwater wells offshore of the US with WTI crude oil under $35 per barrel And given that the costs to produce a barrel of oil in the Middle East, range from $8.50 in Kuwait to $9.90 in Saudi Arabia, to $12.60 in Iran WE CAN’T COMPETE!

But we shouldn’t bother. We should move to a post fossil fuel economy.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%

PLPort.1510On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on October 21, 2015:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio was worth $5.82 Million, down 27.3% overall, down 9.64% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio was worth $18.0 Million, up 125.0%, overall and 44.13% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.15% overall and 10.99% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 17,169 on 10/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 41.19% overall and 14.54% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,019 on 10/21/15.

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Deepwater Horizon may cost BP $53.8 Billion – 43.1% of it’s current value

Image of the fire from the oil spill

Deepwater Horizon Spill in 2010. Photo: Gerald Herbert, AP.

11 Crew were lost in the explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20, 2010. In addition, roughly 5.2 million barrels of oil poured into the Gulf of Mexico during the 87 days between April 20, 2010 when the explosion occurred and July 15, 2010 when the well was capped.

BP, found guilty of “Gross Negligence” and “Willful Misconduct” in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, (BBC, EcoWatch), has agreed to pay $18.7 Billion over the next 15 years (BP Press Release, Reuters) to settle various claims with the United States, the states of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, and others.  This amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization.

Pursuant to the agreements, BP will pay $1.1 Billion per year over the next 15 years. While the $18.7 Billion amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization of $125.59 Billion, the $1.1 Billion per year is only a loss of 0.88% of BP’s current market capitalization each year.

However,

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Energy Portfolios – Simple Analysis re the Fossil Fuel Portfolio

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

“You can’t have oil without oil spills.” – Markwayne Mullin, R, Oklahoma. (Official / GovTrack)

Wind and Sun Won’t Spill

In a period when the Dow Industrials rose 30%, the S&P 500 rose 40%, and the Popular Logistics “Sustainable Energy Portfolio” rose 223%, the “Fossil Fuel Portfolio” rose 21%.

This suggests that a paradigm shift is underway in the energy industry.

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Fracking Earthquakes … Fracking Causes Earthquakes

frackingmap

This map shows the intensity of shaking in the area of a magnitude-3.9 earthquake that struck near Youngstown, Ohio, on Dec. 31, 2011. Research has linked this earthquake to the underground injection of wastewater from fracking. Courtesy USGS

As reported on Live Science, here, and NBC News, here, disposal of wastewater from Hydraulic Fracturing, “Fracking,” has been linked to earthquakes in Ohio. As reported in Green, a the NY Times blog, here, fracking has also been linked to increased seismic activity in Oklahoma, altho scientists are uncertain whether the earthquakes are because of the injection of wastewater underground or the extraction of oil and methane via fracking.

This makes perfect sense. Fracking is, after all, injecting explosives under tremendous pressure into underground rock formations, then exploding the rock formations. To expect that not to have other effects – such as earthquakes – would be naive.

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Fracking – As Clean As Chlorine & Benzene

Benzene Ring Currents, Quantum chemically calculated magnetically induced probability current density vectors in benzene. The magnetic field is pointing out of the molecular plane upwards. Displayed are vectors with modulus between 0.01 and 0.1 nA/T. Left subfigure is in the molecular plane, right subfigure is 1.0 a.u. above the molecular plane. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Benzene_ring_currents.png

Quantum chemically calculated magnetically induced probability current density vectors in benzene. Wikimedia Commons

As noted in my post March 24, here, the petrochemical industry says,

“Trust us. The Fracking fluids are water mixed with sand, a few other chemicals, and 5% is household chemicals, like chlorine and benzine.”

The thing is, chlorine and benzene are hazardous.  So when the people in the petrochemical industry imply, “This is safe,” because it is household chemicals, I don’t know what they mean. And as documented elsewhere in the series, here, pollution from Fracking is not regulated at the Federal level.

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Fuel Barges Explode – 3 Injured

Image of fuel barges on fire.

Fuel Barge Fire, Mobile Alabama, 4/24/13

As reported by Ed Payne, CNN, here, At least six explosions rocked two fuel barges carrying gasoline as they were docked on the Mobile River, in Mobile Alabama. All people are believed to be accounted for.Three people were taken to the USA Medical Center with burns. They remain in critical condition. The barges were being prepped for reload. The fires were monitored from a distance.

I wonder if authorities in Alabama chose to monitor the fires from a safe distance rather than risk the lives of emergency responders. Perhaps mindful of the 10 to 16 first responders killed in the fire and explosion at the West, Texas fertilizer plant last week (my coverage is here).

Thinking long term, we should be developing an efficient and sustainable energy infrastructure with fuel from kitchen waste, farm waste, and sewage.

If the Nega-Watt is the Least Expensive, Cleanest and Most Valuable unit of energy, and the Nega-Fuel-Watt is the 2nd Least Expensive, 2nd cleanest and 2nd Most Valuable, then the “Fuel-From-Waste-Watt” is the 3rd Least Expensive, 3rd Cleanest and 3rd Most Valuable unit of energy.

A candidate for General Assembly to represent NJ Legislative District 12, and an analyst with Popular Logistics, Lawrence J. Furman holds a Bachelor’s in Biology, and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, Vermont. He also has experience in information technology. He can be reached at ‘Larry” at Furman For New Jersey. com

Mayflower Oil Spill – Economic Externalities

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson's Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson’s Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Back in the mid-1970’s, Amory Lovins, currently with the Rocky Mountain Institute, said “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t need to buy.” He called this the “Nega-Watt.” We now know that the Nega-Watt is also the cleanest unit of energy. And the second cheapest – and second cleanest – is the one which doesn’t need fuel and doesn’t create waste, which might be called the “Nega-Fuel-Watt” or “Nega-Waste-Watt.”

Edward McAllister, reported in Reuters, covered by Yahoo News,

Warren Andrews had just finished putting up balloons for his stepdaughter’s 18th birthday party at their suburban home in Mayflower, Arkansas, when his wife came inside and said something was wrong.

After stepping out of his house, and taking one glance, he immediately dialed 911.

“I don’t know what’s going on, but I’ve got a river of oil coming down the street at me,” Andrews told the operator.

Five minutes later, the slick of noxious black crude spewing from a ruptured Exxon Mobil pipeline was eight feet wide, six inches deep and growing fast.

We now know that an Exxon Mobil pipeline, like the proposed Keystone Pipeline, carrying Canadian crude oil ruptured on Friday, March 29, 2913, spilling an estimated 500,000 gallons of oil into the grounds of the town. 500,000 gallons is roughly 11,000 barrels.

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Fracking: Scientifically Proven Clean – But Is It ‘Junk Science’?

 

President Reagan against the US Flag

Ronald Reagan, Courtesy Google Images

The petrochemical industry says “Trust us. The Fracking fluids are water mixed with sand, and a few – 0.5% – other chemicals, household chemicals, like chlorine and benzine.”

According to SourceWatch,

There were more than 493,000 active natural-gas wells across 31 states in the U.S. in 2009, almost double the number in 1990. Around 90 percent have used fracking … according to the drilling industry.[2] Nationwide, residents living near fracked gas wells have filed over 1,000 complaints regarding tainted water, severe illnesses, livestock deaths, and fish kills.

While 1000 complaints on 493,000 wells is a low percentage, if fracking was safe and clean, why the complaints and controversy? President Reagan used to say “Trust people, but check.” Well,

  • If the speed limit was 350 miles per hour; then no one would get a speeding ticket.
  • If the tax code was “Whatever you feel like paying;” then I certainly would pay less taxes.
  • So if fracking was safe and clean; then why the complaints?

The industry says “Trust us, fracking is clean…. We adhere to all regulations…. ” But what are the regulations?

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Buggy-Whips, Railroads & Oil: Systems Thinking on Fuel

West Texas PumpjackAt the 6th Annual Babson Energy Conference, “Energy, Environment, & Entrepreneurship: Challenging Assumptions, Changing Perceptions”, here, held March 30, 2012, Cimbria Badenhausen, (LinkedIn), an alum of the Marlboro College MBA in Managing for Sustainability, asked Tahmid Mizan, Senior Planning Advisor of Exxon Mobil, “Are you an ENERGY company or a PETROLEUM company?”

Mr. Mizan, of Exxon, didn’t answer the question.

Henry Ford, when asked why he doesn’t use focus groups, is believed to have said, “If I asked people what they wanted, they’d tell me faster horses.” (HBR) Continue reading

Gingrich: I’ve a ‘Secret Plan’ for $2.50 Gas

Newt GingrichNewt Gingrich says, “I have a plan to set gasoline prices at $2.50 per gallon.  We have 1.4 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil in the United States. Join us to make it happen.” on YouTube, here.

At a rally in Dalton, Georgia, reported here on CNN, he said, “Just tell all your friends we’re setting it up so you can go online at newt.org and you can give one Newt-gallon which is $2.50, or you can give 10 Newt gallons which is $25, or 100 Newt gallons which is $250 or a thousand Newt gallons which is $2500.”

I wonder who’s picture he wants on those “Newt Dollars.”

Bernard MadoffThe Jane Dough blog describes “Today in Improbable Campaign Promises: Gingrich Bus Advertises $2.50/Gallon Gas,” here.

Talking Points Memo, here, says “Newt Gingrich Running On Bitterness and $2.50 Gas.”

Newt doesn’t offer the details, which brings to mind the so-called “investment strategies” of Bernard Madoff and R. Allen Stanford, recently convicted of the largest Ponzi schemes in history. Both consistently refused to explain how they made money; R Allen Stanford“It’s complicated,” they said, “You wouldn’t understand. But I guarantee that I will make you money. And look at these pictures of me with important people”

In “How to Smell A Rat,” Ken Fisher, of Ken Fisher Investments, with co-author Lara Hoffmans, says, “If a so-called ‘Investment Strategy’ is ‘too complicated to explain’ it’s probably a scam.”

The Chairman of the Communist Party in China can set the value of the currency and price of any commodities in China – because China has a command economy not free markets. The President of the United States, who’s authority, responsibilities, and limits are described in the Constitution, has a lot of power. As Commander In Chief, the President can wage war. But the President can not set the price of commodities traded on free markets.

I don’t believe that Mr. Gingrich has a realistic plan to set the price of gas to $2.50 per gallon.  However, I can think of several ways to appear to cut the price of gasoline from $3.73 to $2.50 per gallon:

  1. Devalue the dollar by about 1/3, so that $2.50 “new dollars,” or “Newt Dollars,” as Mr. Gingrich calls them, buys $3.73 worth of gasoline, or other stuff.
  2. Use tax subsidies to pay people the difference between $2.50 and the price at the pump. Then, of course, you would have to raise taxes by $1.23 per gallon.
  3. Drill Baby Drill.
  4. Ration gasoline to artificially cut the demand.

The first two are smoke and mirrors. The third requires massive amounts of clean water and would create massive amounts of toxic by-products. The fourth would work in time of war or disaster. All require what might be termed “Big Government.” All would pour tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to mile winters such as the winter of 2012, climate change, storms like Hurricanes Katrina and Irene, and acidification of the oceans.

There’s one other thing we could try:

Develop fuels derived from sustainably grown plants to legitimately cut demand on fossil fuels.

While this would require “Big Government” to fund research this seems to me to make sense. It is also the mid-term to long term plan of Continental / United, Virgin, Alaska Air, Horizon Air, other carriers, and Boeing (click here for Gizmag or here for Bio-JetFuel Blog). Solazyme (SZYM) and General Electric (GE) are working on the technology.  The US Navy is also working with Solazyme for fuels derived from algae (Business Wire). However, based on Mr. Gingrich’s statement that “We have 1.4 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil in the United States,” I suspect that he is playing fast and loose with facts and ginning up support for “Drill, Baby, Drill.”

The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012

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Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

  1.  Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

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"Beyond Fuel" at the Space Coast Green Living Festival

Space Coast Green Living Festival

Green Living Festival

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet I am presenting “Beyond Fuel: From Consuming Natural Resources to Harnessing Natural Processes,” a discussion of the hidden costs, or “economic externalities,” of nuclear power, coal, and oil, and the non-obvious benefits of wind, solar, marine hydro and efficiency at the Space Coast Green Living Festival, Cocoa Beach, Florida, Sept 17, 2011.

The festival  is sponsored by the Cocoa Beach Surfrider Foundation and the Sierra Club Turtle Coast Group. It will be at the Cocoa Beach Courtyard by Marriott.

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Exxon Profits: $10,700,000,000 for the Quarter

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The Associated Press via the Sacramento Bee reported that “Exxon Mobil Corp. earned $10.7 billion … its highest quarterly profit since the third quarter of 2008…. However, Exxon officials noted that sluggish business investment, lower consumer spending and high debt would continue to weigh on the economy.”

Let’s do some math – Exxon earned $10.7 Billion this past quarter. Yet Exxon and other big oil companies receives $2 Billion to $3 Billion per year in tax subsidies. If divided equally, then Exxon would get $400 to $600 million per year, $100 to $150 Million per quarter. The subsidies amount to 0.93% to 1.4% of Exxon’s profits of $10.7 Billion this quarter, and 0.108% to 0.16$ of Exxon’s annual revenues of $370 Billion for the year ended 12/31/10 (Google Finance). This is equivalent to giving someone earning $50,000 per year a gift of $54 to $81.

A lot of people need help: American college students need help paying tuition, Americans on Medicare and Medicaid need help paying their medical bills, and Americans on Unemployment need help paying for food, people trying to design and build a renewable sustainable energy infrastructure. But we are helping oil companies.Why?

Let’s look again at the numbers. For the year ending Dec. 31, 2010, Exxon’s Gross Revenues were $383 Billion. Gross Profits were $107 Billion, and Income Before Taxes were $53 Billion. Profit was 27.9% of Gross Revenues.  Income before Taxes was 13.8% of Gross Revenues.

Exxon 12/31/10
Total Revenues $383 B
Gross Profit $107 B
Income before Taxes $53 B
Gross Profit / Revenues 27.94%
Income BT / Revenues 13.84%
Period  Income  Nominal Tax
 Year ending 12/31/2010  $53 Billion  $18.55 B
 Quarter ending 6/30/2011  10.7 Billion  $3.745 B

And according to Valeri Vasquez, at the Center for American Progress, here, Exxon’s tax rate is 17.6%. The nominal corporate rate is 35%.  With profits of $53 Billion last year, rather than receiving subsidies. Exxon should have paid $18.55 Billion in taxes last years. With profits of $10.7 Billion last quarter, Exxon should have paid $3.745 Billion.

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