Category Archives: Energy

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.

 

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

The trend is clear – if 4 1/2 months is enough to establish a trend – the Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 58.78% from 12/21/12 while the Fossil Fuel portfolio is only up 6.71%. The Dow is up 15.49% and the S&P 500 is up 14.24% in that same period.

Is it because Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has reached 400 PPM? (NPR / NY Times) Is Wall Street reacting because Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, and other investment banks and hedge funds are hiring analysts from Greenpeace or people like me with MBAs in Sustainability from Marlboro, the Presidio, and the Bainbridge Institute? Continue reading

Solar Impulse solar-powered airplane: final test flight

Image via EvWorld.Com:

via EVWorld.com solarimpulse_goldengate480x320

This ultralight and ultrasilent solar and battery powered plane flew over  San Francisco, 4/24/13. It previously flew for 26 hours straight, taking off from it’s home base in Payerne, Switzerland, Wednesday, July 7, 2010 at 7:00 AM and landing Thursday, July 8, 2010 at 9:06 AM.
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Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response

PLPort_Results.2013.04

Wall St. NYC, April 26, 2013. Monday, April 22, 2013 was Earth Day.  At the close of trading Thursday, April 25, 2013,  as compared to my reference date of Dec. 21, 2012, the Dow Jones Industrials was up 12.3% , the S&P 500 closed up 10.84%, the “Popular Logistics Fossil Fuel Reference Portfolio was up 1.8% and the Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio was up 34.85%. (This is in line with the trend noted in my previous post, March 23, 2013., in the series that began Dec. 21, 2012.) And Shell Oil has temporarily suspended exploration and drilling operations in the Arctic. (Click here for Forbes). The stock portfolio data are summarized below, in Table 1. That’s the good news (unless you’re long on fossil fuels).

Here’s the bad news. “Fracking” is widespread and unregulated (click here).  An oil spill dumped 500,000 gallons from Exxon pipeline onto Mayflower, Arkansas and into Lake Conway (click here).  A fatal fire & explosion in West, Texas left 35 dead, probably including 16 firefighters and emergency responders (click here).  A fire and multiple explosions on gasoline transport barges docked in Mobile, Alabama injured 3 (click here).  Continue reading

Fuel Barges Explode – 3 Injured

Image of fuel barges on fire.

Fuel Barge Fire, Mobile Alabama, 4/24/13

As reported by Ed Payne, CNN, here, At least six explosions rocked two fuel barges carrying gasoline as they were docked on the Mobile River, in Mobile Alabama. All people are believed to be accounted for.Three people were taken to the USA Medical Center with burns. They remain in critical condition. The barges were being prepped for reload. The fires were monitored from a distance.

I wonder if authorities in Alabama chose to monitor the fires from a safe distance rather than risk the lives of emergency responders. Perhaps mindful of the 10 to 16 first responders killed in the fire and explosion at the West, Texas fertilizer plant last week (my coverage is here).

Thinking long term, we should be developing an efficient and sustainable energy infrastructure with fuel from kitchen waste, farm waste, and sewage.

If the Nega-Watt is the Least Expensive, Cleanest and Most Valuable unit of energy, and the Nega-Fuel-Watt is the 2nd Least Expensive, 2nd cleanest and 2nd Most Valuable, then the “Fuel-From-Waste-Watt” is the 3rd Least Expensive, 3rd Cleanest and 3rd Most Valuable unit of energy.

A candidate for General Assembly to represent NJ Legislative District 12, and an analyst with Popular Logistics, Lawrence J. Furman holds a Bachelor’s in Biology, and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, Vermont. He also has experience in information technology. He can be reached at ‘Larry” at Furman For New Jersey. com

Mayflower Oil Spill – Economic Externalities

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson's Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson’s Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Back in the mid-1970’s, Amory Lovins, currently with the Rocky Mountain Institute, said “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t need to buy.” He called this the “Nega-Watt.” We now know that the Nega-Watt is also the cleanest unit of energy. And the second cheapest – and second cleanest – is the one which doesn’t need fuel and doesn’t create waste, which might be called the “Nega-Fuel-Watt” or “Nega-Waste-Watt.”

Edward McAllister, reported in Reuters, covered by Yahoo News,

Warren Andrews had just finished putting up balloons for his stepdaughter’s 18th birthday party at their suburban home in Mayflower, Arkansas, when his wife came inside and said something was wrong.

After stepping out of his house, and taking one glance, he immediately dialed 911.

“I don’t know what’s going on, but I’ve got a river of oil coming down the street at me,” Andrews told the operator.

Five minutes later, the slick of noxious black crude spewing from a ruptured Exxon Mobil pipeline was eight feet wide, six inches deep and growing fast.

We now know that an Exxon Mobil pipeline, like the proposed Keystone Pipeline, carrying Canadian crude oil ruptured on Friday, March 29, 2913, spilling an estimated 500,000 gallons of oil into the grounds of the town. 500,000 gallons is roughly 11,000 barrels.

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Fracking: Scientifically Proven Clean – But Is It ‘Junk Science’?

 

President Reagan against the US Flag

Ronald Reagan, Courtesy Google Images

The petrochemical industry says “Trust us. The Fracking fluids are water mixed with sand, and a few – 0.5% – other chemicals, household chemicals, like chlorine and benzine.”

According to SourceWatch,

There were more than 493,000 active natural-gas wells across 31 states in the U.S. in 2009, almost double the number in 1990. Around 90 percent have used fracking … according to the drilling industry.[2] Nationwide, residents living near fracked gas wells have filed over 1,000 complaints regarding tainted water, severe illnesses, livestock deaths, and fish kills.

While 1000 complaints on 493,000 wells is a low percentage, if fracking was safe and clean, why the complaints and controversy? President Reagan used to say “Trust people, but check.” Well,

  • If the speed limit was 350 miles per hour; then no one would get a speeding ticket.
  • If the tax code was “Whatever you feel like paying;” then I certainly would pay less taxes.
  • So if fracking was safe and clean; then why the complaints?

The industry says “Trust us, fracking is clean…. We adhere to all regulations…. ” But what are the regulations?

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What Next? – For the 21st Century

Barack-Obamajoe-biden

What should we do now?

  1. Strengthen the safety net.
  2. Reverse the Citizens United and Florence v Burlington rulings.
  3. Place reasonable restrictions on Second Amendment rights, as  reasonable restrictions exist on First Amendment rights. And tax properties and income of religious institutions.
  4. Address Climate Change.
  5. Develop a Renewable & Sustainable Energy Infrastructure – Clean & Green within 15.

As President Obama said, in his Second Inauguration, (White House . Gov / The Atlantic)

The commitments we make to each other …  do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us.  They do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great.

“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. 

“The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult.  But America cannot resist this transition, we must lead it.

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Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio

Earth from Space

Popular Logistics announces the Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio Simulation.

This portfolio is composed of companies in the solar, biofuel and LED lighting industries.

I think these are disruptive technologies, like personal computers and workstations and client server software architecture in the 1980s and aircraft in the mid-20th and automobiles in the early 20th Century. We may be approaching, or may have recently crossed a “tipping point” in the Wind, Solar, LED lighting and Bio Fuel industries.

As points of reference, this “Sustainable Energy Portfolio” will be compared to an “UnSustainable Energy Portfolio,”  composed of oil industry stocks, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

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Solar Power & Electric Utilities: Is The Paradigm Shifting?

Ground Mounted Array.

The 16-module solar array pictured above was built in 2005.  It probably has 2.5 Kilowatt (KW) to 2.8 KW of nameplate capacity. In New Jersey, residential solar systems range from 3 KW to 30 KW. Most are between 4 and 10 KW. Commercial systems range from 8KW to 200 KW. Utility scale systems are in the 10 Mega Watt (MW) to 550 MW range. In 2005, the costs for small scale residential systems were around $8.50 / watt, exclusive of any incentives. Today it is probably around half that, and cheaper for the larger utility scale systems. 1.0 MW system would require 4,000 modules of 250 watts each. The system pictured above requires about 50 square feet of land.As illustrated by the photo of the Topaz array, below, a 550 MW system, like Topaz, would require 2.2 million modules, and would cover a lot of ground.

First Solar Topaz

First Solar, FSLR, a $2.8 Billion company, and Sunpower, SPWR, an $840 Million company, two of the pillars of what is left of the American solar energy industry, made some interesting statements in their 2011 annual reports: Continue reading

Occupy Wall Street – On Energy

Woman Dancing on the Bull

Monday, Sept. 17, was the First Anniversary of the “Occupy Wall Street” protests.

The protesters at Occupy are/were demonstrating against the current economic system and to make “Fracking” illegal.  (See “Stop Spectra: Resist Fracking in NYC” or “City Limits, Occupy Wall Street, Opposes Fracking“) Energy Policy and Economics … the intersection of energy and economics in the bio-humanosphere – the memes we knit together at Popular Logistics.

My coverage of Occupy Wall Street started on Sept. 22, 2011, with “Protesting Marked Cards and a Stacked Deck.” Quoting Mr. Buffett’s op-ed in the NY Times, “Stop Coddling the Super-Rich,” and citing President Obama’s statement about the American Jobs Act, explained on White House . gov and Talking Points Memo, which Senate Republicans subsequently filibustered, I called for repeal of the “Bush Tax Cuts” on the wealthy, and for passage of Obama’s American Jobs, the so-called Buffett Rule.

I concluded,

Tax policy must be linked to fiscal policy. What we are doing today, Obama, Buffett, and the protesters would say, is using tax policy to make rich people more rich…. we should use tax policy to develop infrastructure… to build a 40 kilowatt photovoltaic solar array on each of the 92,000 public schools in the United States…. This would use tax revenues to pay for infrastructure upgrade – and tax revenues pay public schools electric bills. PV Solar systems provide energy without pollution, without toxic wastes, without greenhouse gases. And in the event of an emergency, if disconnected from the grid, we would have a network of 92,000 local emergency shelters with power during the day, when the sun is shining.

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Buggy-Whips, Railroads & Oil: Systems Thinking on Fuel

West Texas PumpjackAt the 6th Annual Babson Energy Conference, “Energy, Environment, & Entrepreneurship: Challenging Assumptions, Changing Perceptions”, here, held March 30, 2012, Cimbria Badenhausen, (LinkedIn), an alum of the Marlboro College MBA in Managing for Sustainability, asked Tahmid Mizan, Senior Planning Advisor of Exxon Mobil, “Are you an ENERGY company or a PETROLEUM company?”

Mr. Mizan, of Exxon, didn’t answer the question.

Henry Ford, when asked why he doesn’t use focus groups, is believed to have said, “If I asked people what they wanted, they’d tell me faster horses.” (HBR) Continue reading

NY Times: Hydraulic Fracturing: “Cleaner than Coal”

Helicopter Cruising Greenland Ice Sheet

Helicopter Cruising Greenland Ice Sheet

To Make Fracturing Safer,” editorial, in May 11, 2012, begins “Gas … is cleaner than coal” and concludes “Oil and and gas drilling will always be a risky business; the administration cannot let pass this opportunity to make it safer.”

Clean and Green within 18 is the opportunity the Administration should not let pass. We should – MUST – shift to 100% sustainable energy in 18 years! Solar, wind and other sustainable energy systems do not require fuel and day-to-day operations do not create waste. Thus these “negafuelwatt” systems are clean; not just “cleaner than coal.” And they are also cleaner than oil, gas, and nuclear power.

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Hydraulic Fracturing – accumulating record not particularly reassuring

Recent reports about the effects of hydraulic fracturing. Note that a critical aspect of this issue is the pressurized disposal of wastewater, which is injected (or perhaps more accurately re-injected) rather than the initial energy (gas) collection.

Mark Drajem, correspondent for Bloomberg News, reporting Fracking Tied to Unusual Rise in Earthquakes in U.S.

A spate of earthquakes across the middle of the U.S. is “almost certainly” man-made, and may be caused by wastewater from oil or gas drilling injected into the ground, U.S. government scientists said in a study.

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey said that for the three decades until 2000, seismic events in the nation’s midsection averaged 21 a year. They jumped to 50 in 2009, 87 in 2010 and 134 in 2011.

Those statistics, included in the abstract of a research paper to be discussed at the Seismological Society of America conference next week in San Diego, will add pressure on an energy industry already confronting more regulation of the process of hydraulic fracturing.

“Our scientists cite a series of examples for which an uptick in seismic activity is observed in areas where the disposal of wastewater through deep-well injection increased significantly,” David Hayes, the deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of Interior, said in a blog post yesterday, describing research by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey.

‘Fairly Small’ Quakes

The earthquakes were “fairly small,” and rarely caused damage, Hayes said.

He said not all wastewater disposal wells induce earthquakes, and there is no way of knowing if a disposal well will cause a temblor.

Last month, Ohio officials concluded that earthquakes there last year probably were caused by wastewater from hydraulic fracturing for natural gas injected into a disposal well.

In hydraulic fracturing — or fracking — water, sand and chemicals are injected into deep shale formations to break apart underground rock and free natural gas trapped deep underground. Much of that water comes back up to the surface and must then be disposed of.

There’s “a difference between disposal injection wells and hydraulically fractured wells,” Daniel Whitten, a spokesman for the America’s Natural Gas Alliance, which represents companies such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) and Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG), said in an e-mail. “There are over 140,000 disposal wells in America, with only a handful potentially linked to seismic activity.”

Let’s assume for the moment that seismic activity is linked to disposal wells, infrequently, as Mr. Whitten claims, at a rate of “a handful” for every 140,000 wells. To use round numbers, and use conservative estimates, let’s say “a handful” is five, out of a set of 100,000 (rounding 140,000 down by nearly one-third). That’s fifty seismic events per 1 million disposal wells. The United States “natural gas” ((It’s our understanding that we are, for the most part, talking about methane.)) industry is planning to rapidly and widely expand domestic exploration.

What’s the acceptable safety rate for seismic events caused by methane extraction? If we embark upon an ambitious program, and create one million new disposal wells (and fifty seismic events) per year, how long will it take for us to yield a catastrophic event?

For the moment, we will set aside the other risks: the toxic nature of methane, which is odorless, flammable, and can easily reach 2000°F (1093°C).

CDC: Health Implications of Hydraulic Fracturing: Unknown

Schematic Drawing of Hydrofracturing

Hydraulic Fracturing 1, Schematic Drawing

The Centers for Disease Control, CDC, on May 3, 2012 issued a brief but unequivocal statement regarding the health implications of hydraulic fracturing here, and reproduced in it’s entirety below.

CDC / ATSDR Hydraulic Fracturing Statement:

CDC and ATSDR do not have enough information to say with certainty whether natural gas extraction and production activities including hydraulic fracturing pose a threat to public health. We believe that further study is warranted to fully understand potential public health impacts.

Image of fire from tap water with various flammable impurities

Frakking 2, Tap Water with Various Impurities

The CDC, in its 47-word statement said, “We don’t know the public health implications of hydraulic fracturing, aka ‘fracking’ or ‘frakking.’ We need to study the issue.” Perhaps the decision makers at the CDC should watch Gasland. But consider the CDC statement on hydraulic fracturing in light of picture 2 and the “Precautionary Principle,”

The precautionary principle or precautionary approach states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action.

The Precautionary Principle is described in more detail on Commonweal (here) and Science & Environmental Health Network, SEHN (here).  Burning fuel for heat requires obtaining the fuel and releases various materials into the biosphere. We must understand the consequences and side-effects before we embark on any project. The questions in re hydraulic fracturing are:

  • Are these pictures real or imagined?
  • What are the implications for the water supply and the biosphere?
  • What are the liability insurance requirements? and
  • What are the alternatives?

Continue reading

Gingrich: I’ve a ‘Secret Plan’ for $2.50 Gas

Newt GingrichNewt Gingrich says, “I have a plan to set gasoline prices at $2.50 per gallon.  We have 1.4 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil in the United States. Join us to make it happen.” on YouTube, here.

At a rally in Dalton, Georgia, reported here on CNN, he said, “Just tell all your friends we’re setting it up so you can go online at newt.org and you can give one Newt-gallon which is $2.50, or you can give 10 Newt gallons which is $25, or 100 Newt gallons which is $250 or a thousand Newt gallons which is $2500.”

I wonder who’s picture he wants on those “Newt Dollars.”

Bernard MadoffThe Jane Dough blog describes “Today in Improbable Campaign Promises: Gingrich Bus Advertises $2.50/Gallon Gas,” here.

Talking Points Memo, here, says “Newt Gingrich Running On Bitterness and $2.50 Gas.”

Newt doesn’t offer the details, which brings to mind the so-called “investment strategies” of Bernard Madoff and R. Allen Stanford, recently convicted of the largest Ponzi schemes in history. Both consistently refused to explain how they made money; R Allen Stanford“It’s complicated,” they said, “You wouldn’t understand. But I guarantee that I will make you money. And look at these pictures of me with important people”

In “How to Smell A Rat,” Ken Fisher, of Ken Fisher Investments, with co-author Lara Hoffmans, says, “If a so-called ‘Investment Strategy’ is ‘too complicated to explain’ it’s probably a scam.”

The Chairman of the Communist Party in China can set the value of the currency and price of any commodities in China – because China has a command economy not free markets. The President of the United States, who’s authority, responsibilities, and limits are described in the Constitution, has a lot of power. As Commander In Chief, the President can wage war. But the President can not set the price of commodities traded on free markets.

I don’t believe that Mr. Gingrich has a realistic plan to set the price of gas to $2.50 per gallon.  However, I can think of several ways to appear to cut the price of gasoline from $3.73 to $2.50 per gallon:

  1. Devalue the dollar by about 1/3, so that $2.50 “new dollars,” or “Newt Dollars,” as Mr. Gingrich calls them, buys $3.73 worth of gasoline, or other stuff.
  2. Use tax subsidies to pay people the difference between $2.50 and the price at the pump. Then, of course, you would have to raise taxes by $1.23 per gallon.
  3. Drill Baby Drill.
  4. Ration gasoline to artificially cut the demand.

The first two are smoke and mirrors. The third requires massive amounts of clean water and would create massive amounts of toxic by-products. The fourth would work in time of war or disaster. All require what might be termed “Big Government.” All would pour tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to mile winters such as the winter of 2012, climate change, storms like Hurricanes Katrina and Irene, and acidification of the oceans.

There’s one other thing we could try:

Develop fuels derived from sustainably grown plants to legitimately cut demand on fossil fuels.

While this would require “Big Government” to fund research this seems to me to make sense. It is also the mid-term to long term plan of Continental / United, Virgin, Alaska Air, Horizon Air, other carriers, and Boeing (click here for Gizmag or here for Bio-JetFuel Blog). Solazyme (SZYM) and General Electric (GE) are working on the technology.  The US Navy is also working with Solazyme for fuels derived from algae (Business Wire). However, based on Mr. Gingrich’s statement that “We have 1.4 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil in the United States,” I suspect that he is playing fast and loose with facts and ginning up support for “Drill, Baby, Drill.”