Category Archives: Energy

The Costs Of War: Billions In Air Conditioning

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Steven Anderson, Brigadier General, Retired, has estimated the costs of air-conditioning U.S. bases in Iraq and Afghanistan to $20.2 Billion. Anderson served  as chief logistics officer for General David Petraeus in Iraq.

The amount the U.S. military spends annually on air conditioning in Iraq and Afghanistan: $20.2 billion, according to a former Pentagon official.That’s more than NASA’s budget. It’s more than BP has paid so far for damage from the Gulf oil spill. It’s what the G-8 has pledged to help foster new democracies in Egypt and Tunisia.”When you consider the cost to deliver the fuel to some of the most isolated places in the world — escorting, command and control, medevac support — when you throw all that infrastructure in, we’re talking over $20 billion,” Steven Anderson tells weekends on All Things Considered guest host Rachel Martin. He’s a retired brigadier general who served as chief logistician for Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq. He’s now in the private sector, selling technologies branded as energy-efficient to the Defense Department.

Excerpted from”Among The Costs Of War: Billions A Year In A.C.?”, broadcast June  25th on the weekend edition of All Things Considered:

This is a more complicated because it includes the logistics costs of building roads in order to deliver equipment and fuel. Building and rebuilding road infrastructure, of course, have lasting value apart their use for delivering fuel to U.S. outposts.

Anderson further estimates that 1,000 U.S. troops – excluding private contractors – have been killed guarding fuel convoys.

This is illustrative of the scale of our logistical lines and expenses – and the centrality of energy in military logistics.

What can be done and what could have been done?

Having invested this much in capital and overhead (fuel), and with the future of our engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan uncertain, what can be done. From Among The Costs Of War: Billions A Year In A.C.?”

The 33,000 troops who will return home by the end of next year match the numbers sent to Afghanistan in 2010, at a cost of about $30 billion. That comes out to about $1 million a soldier. But the savings of withdrawing those troops won’t equal out, experts say.

“What history has told us is that you don’t see a proportional decrease in spending based on the number of troops when you draw them down,” says Chris Hellman, a senior research analyst at the National Priorities Project.

“In Afghanistan that’s going to be particularly true because it’s a very difficult and austere environment in which to operate,” he says.

That means most war expenditures lie not in the troops themselves but in the infrastructure that supports them — infrastructure that in some cases will remain in place long after troops are gone.

“We’re building big bases,” American University professor Gordon Adams says, describing the money invested as, in economic terms, “sunk” costs.

“We’re seeing this in Iraq. We’re turning over to the Iraqis — mostly either for a small penny or for free — the infrastructure that we built in Iraq. But we won’t see back any money from that infrastructure.”

General Anderson has proposed what is usually the most efficient initial strategy: “negawatts, which is to say, conserving energy and reconfiguring the U.S. tents to resist heat and thereby use less power in keeping the tents comfortable.  Below are images of tents modified with polyurethane to increase their ability to resist heat:

Courtesy Steven Anderson and NPR/All Things Considered (weekend edition).

Courtesy Brig. General Steven Anderson (United States Army, retired) and NPR's All Things Considered (weekend editio).

Nuclear Power and Russian Roulette

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet After Chernobyl, Hans Bethe, pictured at left, said “the Chernobyl disaster tells us about the deficiencies of the Soviet political and administrative system rather than about problems with nuclear power” (PBS).  Dr. Bethe is right.  Managing nuclear power and our energy infrastructure is not limited to physics and engineering. It also involves economics, human ecology, national security and systems dynamics. It is logical to conclude that because the Chernobyl disaster was a hydrogen explosion in a badly designed nuclear power plant brought about by Soviet style mis-management, nuclear technology can be implemented safely. However, the data from Three Mile Island and Fukushima suggest that nuclear power, when implemented safely, is too expensive to compete with alternatives (hence the industry needs loan guarantees here in the USA). We need to think about energy in the context of Systems Dynamics, as discussed in “Thinking in Systems,” by Dr. Donella Meadows, also pictured at left, of MIT, Dartmouth, and the Sustainability Institute.

Similar arguments have been advanced after Fukushima. “As long as we don’t build them near earthquake faults, especially earthquake faults near oceans …” While the probability of an accident is low (altho business as usual does raise some concerns) the probability of an accident that occurs being catastrophic is very high!

Looking at Indian Point, which is on an earthquake fault, and thinking about systems, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima …

The area within a 50 mile radius of Indian Point includes New York City, Westchester, Rockland, and Nassau counties of New York, western Connecticut, and northern New Jersey. About 20 million people live there. Entergy says it’s “Safe, Secure, and Vital.” Others – who live near the plant – say it’s not safe, not secure, not vital, and Should Be Closed!

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Engadget/Brian Heater – $1K drop on Chevy Volt Price

Brian Heater at Engadget reports (here) a $1,000 (USD) drop in the list price of the electric plug-in  Chevrolet Volt.  It’s roughly a two to three percent drop. What’s more likely to get Launch of Chevrolet Volt to begin in California, U.S.A.sales going, economies of scale working, and prices down are large private and government fleet orders – or sharp increases in petroleum prices, or accurate news and information. We, at Popular Logistics think higher gasoline prices are inevitable.

“Chevy wants to know what it can do to get you into one of its plug-in hybrids today. A $1,000 price drop? You got it. The carmaker announced this week that the 2012 Volt base price will come in a grand lower than its predecessor, thanks to the sorts of additional configurations that come with increased availability. Opel Ampera Being ChargedThe 2011 version was available in seven states and the District of Columbia and came in three configurations — 2012’s Volt is available nationwide in seven different packages, ranging from $39,995 to $46,265. And keep in mind that those prices don’t factor in potential tax credits. The latest version of the plug-in vehicle is available now for order and offers up features like MyLink media streaming, OnStar driving directions, and passive locking though the new base model does strip away a couple of features found in its predecessor. Also there’s the whole lessening your dependence on gasoline, if you’re into that sort of thing.”

via Engadget.

Renewable Energy & Efficiency Expo + Policy Forum

Taken from the web site:

The Sustainable Energy Coalition, in cooperation with Members of the U.S. House and Senate Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Caucuses, invites you to the 14th annual Congressional Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency EXPO + Policy Forum. This year’s EXPO will bring together more than 50 businesses, sustainable energy industry trade associations, government agencies, and energy policy research organizations (see list below) to showcase the status and near-term potential of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies. Members of the U.S. Congress, Obama administration, and exhibiting organizations will give presentations on the role sustainable energy technologies can play in stimulating the economy, strengthening national security, protecting the environment, and saving consumers money. Click here for video and other details from last year’s EXPO.

This event is free and open to the public. No RSVP required.

Agenda

More details:

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Risk Assessment of Energy Infrastructure: Renewables Lower Risk

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UN Panel: “Renewables could supply 80% of the world’s energy by 2050”

Energy Policy and Game Theory

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ((an organization staffed by two distinct United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the World Heath Organization)), has issued a report estimating that 80% of the world’s energy needs could be met by renewable sources by 2050. Link to Report, including video (0:3:37) of Ottmar Ettenhafer, chair of the IPCC, regarding the report.

We believe that barriers are not ultimately economic or technical, but political, social, and attitudinal.  Since we’d prefer to think that most people don’t wish the ill effects of climate change on their grandchildren – or would take that bet with any bookmaker (what our British cousins call a “turf accountant”), putting the lives of those they know will outlive them at risk,  we prefer to think that it’s some form of social acquiescence – less politely, “groupthink,” rather than avarice, which leads to dismissal of concerns about global warming. Viz this excerpt from a post we found on the Peak Energy blog.  This is from a column by Paddy Manning, business columnist at the Sydney Morning Herald:

From Corporate leaders in a climate of disbelief

Scepticism hung heavy in the air. At a packed Australian Institute of Company Directors lunch on climate change, the institute’s former chief executive, Ian Dunlop – a petroleum engineer who was a Shell executive and now is the deputy convener of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil – rose to put a question to keynote speaker, David Mortimer, the chairman of Leighton Holdings, the world’s biggest contract coalminer.

In full, Dunlop’s question ran for three minutes: ”The temperature increase we’ve seen so far is about 0.8 degrees Celsius. We’ve already seen a clear trend in extreme weather events related to just that increase. We probably have locked in already a temperature increase of around 2.4 degrees. If we were to follow the path that you’re suggesting in terms of continued fossil fuel usage to 2030, the likely outcome will be a temperature increase somewhere between 4 and 6 degrees. That probably means world population drops to a carrying capacity of somewhere around a billion people (you can argue 1 to 2 billion).

We  recommend reading Manning’s excellent reporting on Dunlop’s presentation. But we’d like to put the question another way, strictly as a thought exercise in two parts.

Part 1: A Wager on Climate Change

  1. A 1% probability that serious consequences will be the result of continuing our current energy policies;
  2. If – on the 1% probability that the “alarmists” are right – in which case this isn’t something rapidly reversible ;
  3. Would you take a 1% bet – even if it paid 5,000 to 1 – if the loss meant the death or impoverishment of your grandchildren?
  4. How much does your moral calculus change if it someone else’s children -someone else you don’t know and will never know?

Part 2: Who Gets To Play?

  1. We’re all making this wager with our actions – but certain groups of us – people with the most to gain with the continued use of non-renewables
  2. If this is, in effect, a multiplayer version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma ((See Wikipedia’s excellent introduction to the Prisoner’s Dilemma, one of the fundamental problems in game theory)) we’re already making this bet – but we’re pooling the risk onto a set of most or all “children” or “grandchildren.”

What if we were to decide the risk was unacceptable, and apply the Precautionary Principle? Moving to a renewable-focused energy policy would inevitably have certain effects, some of them bad for small groups of people, no doubt – the others pretty good for most of us:

  1. Energy would be more expensive in the short run, while capital investment is made;
  2. The investment in new infrastructure will stimulate the economy, unemployment will decrease, wages and wealth will increase, GPI, Genuine Progress Indicator, will increase.
  3. Energy would become more efficient,  i.e. less energy for the same amount of economic activity. Except for energy producers, transporters and resellers, this is in effect a lowering of overhead costs without general deflation.
  4. The unquestioned risks of certain energy uses (air quality, water quality, the risks inherent in extracting, refining, transporting, and storing various energy types) and associated safety and health costs would be reduced.

This assessment gives most of us at least a short-term interest opposed to parties with economic interests in the current system. It also gives us a long term interest in investing in renewables. And it makes the current unsustainable paradigm a bet against future generations.

Telegraph Op-Ed urges Obama to build thorium reactors

TweetFollow LJF97 on Twitter An op-ed article in the Telegraph, UK, last year urged President  Obama “to marshal America’s vast scientific and strategic resources behind a new Manhattan Project” and by so doing we could “reasonably hope to reinvent the global energy landscape and sketch an end to our dependence on fossil fuels within three to five years.”  The article suggests we invent and commercialize nuclear reactors designed around radioactive decay of thorium.

The article concludes with the assertion that renewables can’t meet our needs. But that’s asserting a belief, not reporting scientifically observable data or a scientifically disprovable hypothesis. And the better question in that regard is not: “Can renewable and sustainable energy meet our needs?”

But: “How can renewable and sustainable energy meet our needs?”

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Why Cape Wind Still Matters


Follow LJF97 on Twitter On May 25, 1961 President John Kennedy said, “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.” (Kennedy library and NASA)

Ten years ago, before Sept. 11, Jim Gordon and his team set out to build a small wind farm on the waters on which the young President, his wife, brothers, sisters, nieces and nephews sailed. Size is relative. It’s small compared to a large coal or nuclear power complex. The wind farm will be composed of 130 turbines and produce up to 430 megawatts of power (here).

Former Mass. Gov. Deval PatrickIn 2010 Jim Gordon and Cape Wind, LLC, finally, got their permits to build the wind farm. For a variety of reasons it took longer for Cape Wind, LLC to get the permits to build the wind farm than it took this nation to land a man on the moon and bring him home safely.  Had the wind farm been built by the winter of 2004, Cape Wind would have provided power during the bitter January of ’04, the heat wave of ’05, and every day, especially the coldest days of winter and the hottest days of summer – when the winds are strongest and New Englander’s electricity needs are highest.

 

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Virginia Senator John Warner

Mass. Senator Scott Brown

Former Mass. Gov. Willard Mitt Romney

It’s also clear, from reading Cape Wind, by Wendy Williams and Robert Whitcomb, that the alliance to “Save Our Sound,” created an anti-wind rogue’s gallery, a bipartisan coalition of moneyed special interests which led Senator Edward M. Kennedy, D-MA, Governor Willard Mitt Romney, R-MA, Senator Ted Stevens, R-AK, Representative Dan Young, R-AK, Sen. Trent Lott, R-MS, Sen. John Warner, R-VA, and very wealthy residents of Cape Cod, including Bill Koch, the late Richard Egan, Rachel “Bunny” Lambert Mellon (Sen. Warner’s ex-mother-in-law), professional environmentalist Robert F Kennedy, Jr. to obstruct the regulatory and the legislative processes and which slowed the development of Cape Wind and offshore wind farms off of the mid-Atlantic and elsewhere.

For them to oppose this project or say “I favor wind power, as long as it’s somewhere else,” was and remains cynical. Given that we have combat troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, that Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006 described the mission in Iraq as a war for oil, was unpatriotic, perhaps traitorous.

Senator Olympia Snowe

Senator DomeniciYet another bipartisan coalition rose up to challenge them and support Cape Wind: Ted Roosevelt, IV, who lives on the Cape, Rep. Jim Bass, R-NH, Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-ME, Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-NM, Sen. Pete Domenici, R-NM, Matt Patrick, Massachusetts, Gov. Deval Patrick,  Greenpeace, unions, Fox News’ Sean Hannity. What these politicians have in common is an understanding of the values of energy independence and renewable energy.

Popular Logistics is a policy blog, not a politics blog. However, it’s worth noting that several political campaigns were won in Massachusetts by Democrats who supported Cape Wind, including Matt Patrick, the 5-term Democratic Representative of the 3rd District of Barnstable, Cape Cod, and Deval Patrick who started his 2006 Gubenatorial campaign in front of the Hull, MA, wind turbine.

Mitt Romney, who signed Ted Kennedy’s health care plan into law in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, (also known as Obamacare 1.0) appears to be running for President in 2012. He lost in the 2008 Primary to John McCain. Mr. Romney signed on to the Kennedy-Koch-Egan-Mellon anti-Cape Wind jihad. Americans favor wind power. Will they support Romney in 2012?

Scott “Mitt-Lite” Brown, said (here) “While I support the concept of wind power as an alternative source of energy, Nantucket Sound is a national treasure.”  Massachusetts voters favor Cape Wind 70 to 30. Will they support Brown in his re-election campaign in 2012?  The Statue of Liberty is a “National Treasure,” as is the Constitution.  I last visited Cape Cod when I was 7. Nantucket Sound is not a “National Treasure.” Getting America off coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power, moving to clean, renewable, sustainable energy means our children and grandchildren will enjoy our national treasures.

In their book Williams and Whitcomb suggest that Senator Kennedy may have realized that he had made a bad decision in opposing Cape Wind, but that for a variety of reasons he refused to back down. They may be right. While I think Kennedy was wrong, I can’t speak to whether he came to that understanding. As I noted on this blog, back in August, 2009, (here) President Obama said of Ted Kennedy,”His ideas and ideals are stamped on scores of laws and reflected in millions of lives: in seniors who know new dignity; in families who know new opportunity; in children who know education’s promise; and in all who can pursue their dream in an America that is more equal and more just, including myself.

Obama said “More equal and more just,” but he didn’t say “perfect.” America is not perfect. It is nation of men and women governed by the rule of law. The laws are not perfect, and neither are the men and women who make, enforce and interpret the laws.

Our energy policy is electricity flows when people flip a switch. Most of that electricity comes from burning fossil fuels and harnessing nuclear fission. We can pretend that the carbon we are pumping into the oceans and the atmosphere will have no effect, that we have unlimited supplies of fossil fuels, and uranium, that all the waste from coal mining, processing, transporting, and burning, and all the radiation leaks from nuclear plants (and radioactive waste from coal) are trivial or routine. Or we can get real. The choice is between coal, oil, methane, and nuclear, or wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal. I choose wind, solar, tidal and geothermal; for myself, for my backyard, not just for people who are my equal in the eyes of the law, whether they have more or less money than me.

Offshore wind farm. monopoles are about 100 m.

Index to the series that explores Offshore Wind and Politics:

  1. Cape Wind, Leadership and Vision, here.
  2. Why Cape Wind Still Matters, here.
  3. Ted Roosevelt, IV, on Cape Wind (coming soon).

Pennsylvania approves natural gas drilling applications in record time: Michael Rubinkam/Associated Press




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Michael Rubinkam of the Associated Press reports that Pennsylvania is reviewing – and approving – natural gas drilling permits in 35 minutes. There are several ways to interpret this data; these come to mind:

  1. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has already done the requisite research on applicant(s) and location(s) in some other process not reflected in the 35-minute process;
  2. They’ve decided there’s no risk associated with natural gas drilling;
  3. Something is wrong with this process.

We believe the safe bet is the last of those three.

From Pennsylvania is approving gas drilling permits with scant review by Michael Rubinkam, in USA Today:

ALLENTOWN, Pa. — Pennsylvania environmental regulators say they spend as little as 35 minutes reviewing each of the thousands of applications for natural gas well permits they get each year from drillers who want to tap the state’s vast Marcellus Shale reserves.

And the regulators say they do not give any additional scrutiny to requests to drill near streams and rivers, even though the waterways are protected by state and federal law.

Staffers in the state Department of Environmental Protection testified behind closed doors last month as part of a lawsuit filed by residents and environmental groups over a permit that DEP issued for an exploratory gas well in northeastern Pennsylvania, less than a half-mile from the Delaware River and about 300 feet from a pristine stream.

Their statements, obtained by The Associated Press, call into question whether regulators are overburdened and merely rubber-stamping permit applications during the unprecedented drilling boom that has turned Pennsylvania into a major player in the natural gas market, while also raising fears about polluted water and air.

The agency has denied few requests to drill in the Marcellus Shale formation, the world’s second-largest gas field. Of the 7,019 applications DEP has processed since 2005, only 31 have been rejected — less than one-half of one percent.
Pennsylvania is approving gas drilling permits with scant review (USA Today, 13 April 2011)

 

Japan: aftershock leaves 3.6 million households without electricity

From Powerful Aftershock Complicates Japan’s Nuclear Efforts, by Hiroko Tabuchi and  Andrew Pollack in The New York Times.

TOKYO — The strongest aftershock to hit since the day of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan rocked a wide section of the country’s northeast on Thursday night, prompting a tsunami alert, raising fears of new strains on the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and knocking out external power at three other nuclear facilities.

The public broadcaster, NHK, said two people had died in Miyagi and Yamagata, including a 63-year-old woman whose ventilator stopped working in the blackout. Many more were injured. About 3.6 million households were still without power Friday morning.

No tsunami was detected, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. The aftershock had a magnitude of 7.1, according to the United States Geological Survey; last month’s quake, which devastated much of the northeastern coast, was measured at 9.0.

But the agency warned of more aftershocks going forward. Many coastal communities were ravaged last month, and some have become even more vulnerable to tsunami waves because sea walls were breached and land levels sank.

Early Friday, injuries were reported in Sendai City and across the region, and blackouts continued in some areas, according to NHK. Five coal-powered power plants also shut down, adding to concerns over energy shortages.

Workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant were told to take cover until the tsunami warning was lifted, but Japanese officials said at a news conference that water was still able to be pumped into three damaged reactors and a spent-fuel pool at a fourth in the crucial effort to keep their nuclear fuel cool. The plant’s cooling systems were knocked out by last month’s quake and tsunami.

Nitrogen also continued to be piped into the No. 1 reactor, the company said, in an effort to prevent a possible explosion.

The Tokyo Electric Power Company, which runs the power station, said early Friday that it had found no new damage to the plant, and workers had resumed work to identify the source of leaks, found last week, of radioactive water into pipes and tunnels under the complex. Monitoring posts at the plant were not showing any immediate increase in radiation levels, the company said.

Nuclear Power and Cocaine

Asking a nuclear engineering professor “Is radiation bad?” is like asking Charlie Sheen “Is cocaine bad?”

On “Morning Edition” today, 3/30/11, Renee Montagne did just that when she interviewed Professor Peter Caracappa, a member of the faculty of the nuclear engineering department of RPI (Interview / nuclear engineering at RPI). As is typically the case, what was left out of the conversation could have been more interesting than what was in the conversation. My questions for Professor Caracappa are below: Continue reading

Nuclear Power: What Future?

Smoke from Fukushima Dai-ichi

Smoke from nuclear plant. (C) Reuters

The men and women who design, build, and work at nuclear power plants are bright, dedicated people who work hard so that when we flip a switch the power flows, so we can use our computers, watch our tvs, refrigerate our food, microwave our dinners and our popcorn, heat, cool, and vacuum our homes, and jam on our electric pianos and electric guitars when we want to. The drive, dedication and service of the engineers at Fukushima is heroic.

Under normal conditions, nuclear power emits less pollutants than coal, and the waste from nuclear power is regulated. The wastes from coal are not.

Yet, radioactive materials are an intrinsic property of nuclear power; consequently meltdown and disaster are inherent dangers. The disasters at Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Diaini, and Onagawa, while not predictable, were not unexpected. We’ve seen Chernobyl in ’86, Three Mile Island in ’79. We’ve had fires at Brown’s Ferry. We have had, and continue to have leaks of radioactive material at Oyster Creek, Indian Point, Vermont Yankee, the Hanford Nuclear Reservation and every other nuclear facility in the United States, Japan, France, and I am sure, the rest of the world.

And we learned what? To ‘harden’ the plants? To spare no expense in a fanatical devotion to safety and maintenance?

No. To cut corners and to defer maintenance. To extend to 60 years the life of plants designed to last 40 years.

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U.S. Oil companies paid part of Libyan terrorism settlement

Corruption and kleptocracy seem fairly predictable in Libya, although it’s a fair journalistic effort to confirm or refute what may be common knowledge. Perhaps an example of that is The New York Times publishing confirmation of what most New Yorkers knew in the early 1970’s – that the New York City Police Department was a corrupt institution, incapable and/or unwilling to police itself. (See, e.g., the books Serpico by Peter Maas, Prince of the City by Robert Daley).

Now, three of the Times’ heavy hitters, Eric Lichtblau, David Rohde and James Risen, have reported that – in addition to whatever passes for routine corruption in Libya, some – but not  all – foreign companies operating in Libya complied with Qaddafi’s demand that they contribute to the $1.5 billion settlement for its responsibility in the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 (the Locherbie bombing) and other attacks.

Does this make these companies accessories after the fact? excerpted from Shady Dealings Helped Qaddafi Build Fortune and Regime:

In 2009, top aides to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi called together 15 executives from global energy companies operating in Libya’s oil fields and issued an extraordinary demand: Shell out the money for his country’s $1.5 billion bill for its role in the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 and other terrorist attacks.

If the companies did not comply, the Libyan officials warned, there would be “serious consequences” for their oil leases, according to a State Department summary of the meeting.

Many of those businesses balked, saying that covering Libya’s legal settlement with victims’ families for acts of terrorism. The episode and others like it, the officials said, reflect a Libyan culture rife with corruption, kickbacks, strong-arm tactics and political patronage since the United States reopened trade with Colonel Qaddafi’s government in 2004. As American and international oil companies, telecommunications firms and contractors moved into the Libyan market, they discovered that Colonel Qaddafi or his loyalists often sought to extract millions of dollars in “signing bonuses” and “consultancy contracts” — or insisted that the strongman’s sons get a piece of the action through shotgun partnerships.

“Libya is a kleptocracy in which the regime — either the al-Qadhafi family itself or its close political allies — has a direct stake in anything worth buying, selling or owning,” a classified State Department cable said in 2009, using the department’s spelling of Qaddafi. was unthinkable. But some companies, including several based in the United States, appeared willing to give in to Libya’s coercion and make what amounted to payoffs to keep doing business, according to industry executives, American officials and State Department documents.

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Is Fukushima Dai-ichi Worse than Chernobyl?

Nicole Polozzi, as "Snooki"

Are there differences between Fukushima Dai-ichi and Chernobyl?

And is Fukushima worse than Chernobyl?

A teenager might say “Du-uh!”

My friends from Brooklyn might ask “Is the Pope Catholic?”

Even “Snooki” and “The Situation” might ask “Are you stoopid or what?”

But the people at CNN, ProPublica and the NY Times are asking nuclear power industry experts. That’s like asking Charlie Sheen if cocaine is bad, or asking Lindsay Lohan if she really stole that necklace. They should be asking people like Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Institute, Roger Saillant at Case Western’s Fowler Center for Sustainable Value, Jeremy Grantham at GMO, Cary Krosinsky at Columbia University CERC, anyone connected with academic programs in Sustainability, such as at Marlboro College, the Presidio, Bainbridge, ecological economics, systems dynamics, etc.

So for the record – here are six real differences (as opposed to the nonsense at Pro Publica here and here) and two major points of congruence.

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Fukushima: GE Mark 1: Unsustainable by Design

In Sustainability by Design, John Ehrenfeld defines sustainable design as “That which allows for and even stimulates flourishing forever. ” Nuclear plants are, according to Ehrenfeld’s definition, Unsustainable by design!”

Washington, 1972: “If the cooling systems fails at a ‘Mark 1’ nuclear reactor, the primary containment vessel surrounding the reactor will probably burst as the fuel rods inside overheat. Dangerous radiation will spew into the environment.” – Stephen Hanauer, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Safety.

via Design of G.E.’s Mark 1 Nuclear Reactors Shows Weaknesses – NYTimes.com.

Map showing mark 1 reactors in US

The core in “Pressurized Water Reactors is sealed inside a thick steel-and-cement sarcophagus, similar to what is now being built around Chernobyl. This suggests what we must eventually do to remediate the area on which now stand the Japanese reactors at Fukushima Dai-ichi, Diani, and Onagawa – entomb the entire plants in artificial mountains of cement and steel.

However, the containment vessel and pressure suppression system used in  Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi facility is physically less robust. It has been understood to be more susceptible to failure in an emergency than other, more expensive designs. Safety costs money.

In the United States, 23 reactors at 16 locations use the Mark 1 design, including Oyster Creek, Vermont Yankee, Browns Ferry, Alabama, Fermi, Illinois.

Fourth in a series on the economics, ecological economics, finance, logistics, and sytems dynamics of nucleaer power in the light of the ongoing catastrophe at Fukushima.

Index to the series

  1. Earthquake, Tsunami and Energy Policy, March 11-13, 2011. Here.
  2. After Fukushima, Wall Street Bearish on Nuclear Power. March 14, 2011. Here.
  3. Fukushima: Worse than Chernobyl? Here.
  4. Fukushima: GE Mark 1: Unstable by Design. Here

Fukushima: Worse than Chernobyl?

This seems to be worse than Chernobyl. Chernobyl was a meltdown at one reactor. There are reports of “partial melt-downs” at three reactors at Fukushima Dai-Ichi and “States of Emergency” at 9 out of 17 reactors at three sites northeast of Tokyo: 3 at Fukushima Dai-ichi, 3 at Fukushima Daini and 3 at Onagawa. I expect the others at Dai-ichi to be shut down.

“The chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave a far bleaker appraisal on Wednesday of the threat posed by Japan’s nuclear crisis than the Japanese government had offered. He said American officials believed that the damage to at least one crippled reactor was much more serious than Tokyo had acknowledged, and he advised Americans to stay much farther away from the plant than the perimeter established by Japanese authorities.

“The announcement opened a new and ominous chapter in the five-day-long effort by Japanese engineers to bring the six side-by-side reactors under control after their cooling systems were knocked out by an earthquake and a tsunami last Friday.”

– David Sanger, Matthew Wald, and Hiroko Tabuchi, NY Times, “U.S. Calls Radiation ‘Extremely High,’ Sees Japan Nuclear Crisis Worsening

Also in the NY Times, William Broad reports “Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume” … “A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday [March 18, 2011].”

It is important to remember that this is not just radiation, but particles carried on the wind that are emitting radiation.

Buy iodine. It may be bad for your blood pressure, but then again so are meltdowns, even those half-a-world away.

The damage to north-east Japan is not incalculable. A small number of people were killed.  A large number of cancers will develop. A significant percentage of  Japan’s electric capacity – 9 out of 17 nuclear power plants – is down. An area of 2,826 to 7,850 square miles – a radius of 30 to 50 miles – around Fukushima Daiichi must be closed.  Radioactive material is flushed from the damaged reactors into the Pacific. The heavy metals will sink to the ocean floor and eventually get buried in sediments. This will be bad for fish, dolphins, etc., however, there will be no humans there to fish …

Three questions:  Indian Point, Oyster Creek, and Vermont Yankee are of the same design as Fukushima Daiichi.  Why did the NRC just relicense Vermont Yankee? Why does the NRC not pull the licenses from Oyster Creek and Indian Point? Should we not decommission all nuclear reactors with all deliberate speed and replace them with a clean, renewable, sustainable energy topology?

Summary:

  • Fukushima Dai-ichi 1, 2, 3: Partial meltdowns.
  • Diani 1, 2, & 4: Equipment failure, including cooling system failure.
  • Onagawa 1, 2 and 3: High levels of radiation.

Details: (AP courtesy of the Boston Globe)

Dai-ichi Unit 1: Some uranium fuel pellets in the core have melted. Workers are trying to prevent total meltdown, have released steam in attempt to lower pressure in reactor vessel. A hydrogen explosion blew away much of the containment building. The reactor core is said to be intact. The cooling system has failed; large amounts of seawater is being pumped into reactor vessel to try cooling the severely overheated uranium core. Offsite radiation has been reported.

Dai-ichi Unit 2: Cooling system failure. Officials say fuel rods have been fully exposed, at least twice. An attempt to channel seawater into the reactor failed due to stuck rod, so officials were trying to spray cool water on the top of the reactor vessel. Explosion occurred early Tuesday [11/15] at this reactor. Partial meltdown believed to have occurred.

Dai-ichi Unit 3: Hydrogen explosion on Monday [11/14]. Radiation believed released. Cooling system failure so jury-rig of seawater pump to cool the unit. Partial meltdown said to have occurred.

Daini units 1, 2 & 4: Cooling system breakdown or failure. Retained offsite power, but operators were experiencing equipment failures and increased pressure inside the containment vessels. There have been problems with residual heat removal systems.

Onagawa units 1, 2 & 3: Higher-than-permitted radiation levels detected. When the levels fell, they said the radiation could have been from a release at the Dai-ichi units.

Third in a series on the economics, ecological economics, finance, logistics, and systems dynamics of nuclear power in the light of the ongoing catastrophe at Fukushima.

Index to the series

  1. Earthquake, Tsunami and Energy Policy, March 11-13, 2011. Here.
  2. After Fukushima, Wall Street Bearish on Nuclear Power. March 14, 2011. Here.
  3. Fukushima: Worse than Chernobyl? Here.
  4. Fukushima: GE Mark 1: Unsustainable by Design. Here.
  5. Is Fukushima Dai-icha Worse Than Chernobyl? Here.