Category Archives: Deepwater Horizon

Deepwater Horizon may cost BP $53.8 Billion – 43.1% of it’s current value

Deepwater Horizon Spill in 2010. Photo: Gerald Herbert, AP.

11 Crew were lost in the explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20, 2010. In addition, roughly 5.2 million barrels of oil poured into the Gulf of Mexico during the 87 days between April 20, 2010 when the explosion occurred and July 15, 2010 when the well was capped.

BP, found guilty of “Gross Negligence” and “Willful Misconduct” in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, (BBC, EcoWatch), has agreed to pay $18.7 Billion over the next 15 years (BP Press Release, Reuters) to settle various claims with the United States, the states of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, and others. This amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization.

Pursuant to the agreements, BP will pay $1.1 Billion per year over the next 15 years. While the $18.7 Billion amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization of $125.59 Billion, the $1.1 Billion per year is only a loss of 0.88% of BP’s current market capitalization each year.

However,

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Energy Portfolios – Simple Analysis re the Fossil Fuel Portfolio

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

“You can’t have oil without oil spills.” – Markwayne Mullin, R, Oklahoma. (Official / GovTrack)

Wind and Sun Won’t Spill

In a period when the Dow Industrials rose 30%, the S&P 500 rose 40%, and the Popular Logistics “Sustainable Energy Portfolio” rose 223%, the “Fossil Fuel Portfolio” rose 21%.

This suggests that a paradigm shift is underway in the energy industry.

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"Beyond Fuel" at the Space Coast Green Living Festival

Green Living Festival

Tweet I am presenting “Beyond Fuel: From Consuming Natural Resources to Harnessing Natural Processes,” a discussion of the hidden costs, or “economic externalities,” of nuclear power, coal, and oil, and the non-obvious benefits of wind, solar, marine hydro and efficiency at the Sp ace Coast Green Living Festival, Cocoa Beach, Florida, Sept 17, 2011.

The festival is sponsored by the Cocoa Beach Surfrider Foundation and the Sierra Club Turtle Coast Group. It will be at the Cocoa Beach Courtyard by Marriott.

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Clean Energy, Good Jobs, and a Vibrant Economy … But

courtesy NASA (our tax dollars at work)

Tweet It sounds too good to be true:

*   100 gigawatts of offshore wind, $300 Billion,
*   100 gw of landbased wind, $200 Billion,
*   75 gw of solar, $300 Billion,
*   75 gw of geothermal, $200 Billion.
*   200 gigawatt equivalents of efficiency – $200 Billion.
*   100 & Clean, Renewable, Sustaianble Energy: 1.2 Trillion.
*   2.7 Million New Jobs and a Healthy Economy: Priceless!

This is happening, slowly, inexorably, by the “invisible hand of the market.” But it will happen faster if the “invisible mind of the community” acts. This means the government!

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Brookings, SAP, NRG, and the City of New York on our Energy Future

NRG Energy

Tweet Will moving to the new energy future – deploying Solar, Wind and other sustainable alternatives create 2.7 Million New Jobs?

At “How Cities and Companies Can Work Together to Operate in the New Energy-Constrained Economy” a panel discussion (press release), Bruce Katz, Vice President and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institution, said “2.7 million new jobs” will be created in moving to the clean energy / low carbon economy.

Mr. Katz also noted that two out of three Americans – 200 million people – live in the 100 biggest metropolitan areas, and those 200 million people are responsible for 75% of our GDP. High carbon energy is no longer cheap. The people in those metropolitan areas, and elsewhere, therefore, must act. Continue reading →

Keynes, Reluctance to hire, & 21ST Century Energy

in black and white, because some ideas are.

Tweet During the Great Depression the Classical Economists said “Unemployment is voluntary. Business owners will not voluntarily keep the means of production idle.” While he had been a student of classical economics, John Maynard Keynes observed that the data didn’t fit the theory. And, he reasoned, if the observable data don’t fit the theory, the theory must be flawed. “Business owners are risk averse,” he saw. “A employee needs to be productive, needs to make widgets. But if no one is buying widgets, then contrary to classical theory, factory owners will fire workers and keep capital idle rather than hire workers to create excess inventory. That’s just common sense.”

We see this today.

When unemployment was low, for example in the United States during the tech boom of the 1990’s, people acted on the premise that “There is so much work that we could hire and good people and train them.” Today hiring managers seem to be acting on the premise that “There are so many people looking for work that they can wait for the perfect candidate.” Perfection being unattainable, jobs go unfilled. This is ok, in this context, because

“Budgets are tight.”
“The future is uncertain.”
“Money not spent on a new hire can be saved or used to pay down debt.”

Keynes also observed that the government is an employer that does not need to worry about going out of business. Building infrastructure is government employment that is investment for the future. These observations are as valid today as they were 80 years ago.

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Earth Day, 2011, Where Are We?

Earth from Space, courtesy of the American taxpayer. Reto Stöckli, Nazmi El Saleous, and Marit Jentoft-Nilsen, NASA GSFC

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Earth Day, 2010, I looked to the future on Popular Logistics. In 2009, I wrote about water pollution and agricultural waste in the Chesapeake. Today I am looking at the present and recent past. While a comprehensive look at where we are can be found on the web pages of the World Watch Institute, the New York Times, and the World Factbook of the Central Intelligence Agency, I want to make a few points.

Our energy policy is “when you flip a switch, the juice gotta flow.” It ain’t magic. It’s engineering and classical physics, with an understanding of radioactive fission and decay and a profound lack of long term thinking. It ain’t magic, but it might as well be. But we really need to base our energy policy on an understanding of ecological economics and sustainability.

We’ve had a few problems with nuclear power and fossil fuel in the last few years. Yet, there’s some light on the horizon.

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21 Century Energy or Business As Usual?

NY Times Special (Business As Usual) Energy Section

Clifford Krauss’ “Can We Do Without the Mideast?” sets the tone for the “Special Energy Section” in the NY Times, March 31, 2011. “The path to independence – or at least an end to dependence on the Mideast – could well be dirty, expensive and politically explosive.” Is this an April Fool’s Day joke? The path to sustainable energy requires vision and hard work. a solar array on every roof and insulation in every wall and every attic. It will be better for the economy, better for the environment, and better for ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren. Continue reading →

The Deepwater Horizon – The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

Oil Eating Bacteria

The good news is that newly discovered bacteria biodegrade oil in the oceans, and have been chowing down on the oil spilled from the Deepwater Horizon (Earth and Sky, NPR, PBS, SFGATE) and from oil seeps for millions of years.

While it’s unexpected and wonderful that bacteria are biodegrading the oil, is begs the question:

Do we want to fill the seas with oil and oil-eating bacteria or oceans of clean water, coral, oysters, fish, turtles, and dolphins?

And how quickly can they consume the 5.1 million barrels that gushed into the Gulf at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day for 85 days begining April 20, continuing thru May and June, and ending July 15, 2011?

I suspect it will take more than a few weeks, months, or years.

And do those bacteria break down dispersants?

John Ehrenfeld defines “Sustainability” as “Flourishing.” Because they are small and short-lived, shrimp can handle a higher level of toxics than say dolphins, turtles, etc. We will know the Gulf is clean when there are flourishing populations of dolphins, turtles, and larger and longer-lived fauna, and when they have lower concentrations of heavy metals and petrochemicals in their tissues. Continue reading →

Crisis (Mis) Management and the Gulf Oil Spill

What BP and the Government Could Have Done and Should Be Doing (updated 10/7/10)

The handling of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is a textbook study of how not to manage a crisis. The government and the Obama Administration seems to have understated the problem and ceded responsibility to BP, which seems to have acted to protect the Macondo oil field rather than the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast.

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It's Like a Bad High School Math Problem

Oil and Oceans Don't Mix. From Mining News.

“If oil gushes into the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day, and it takes 84 days to achieve a capability of “process” the spilled oil at a rate of 30,000 barrels per day, how long does it take to “process” the spilled oil?”

It takes two days to process each day’s gushed oil. So the answer is “2N + 188” where “N” equals the number of days oil gushes into the Gulf beyond the 84 days it took to achieve a processing capability of 30,000 barrels a day. If BP or the government stops the spill effective July 15, 2010, then they will process the oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico by January 20, 2011. If they are able to stop the flow of oil by August 1, 2010, then it will be Feb 19, 2011, before the spilled oil is “processed.” (Source of image)

And what exactly do they mean by “Process the spilled oil?”

People cleaning up the spilled oil.

Here’s another problem: “What is the toxicity for people cleaning up, or “processing,” the spilled oil? How much exposure can an average person tolerate? Is BP providing adequate safety gear and instructions? If people working to clean up the spill are reporting “light-headedness” and other symptoms, is that an indication that they have sustained a toxic exposure?” For more details, here is Melissa Taylor’s article, “Doctors call for help protecting Gulf oil spill workers.”

This Like a Bad High School Math Problem, is ninth in the series on the Deepwater Horizon / Macondo oil well disaster which began after Earth Day. Other posts include:

Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon

Ships trying to Extinguish the Flames at the Deepwater Horizon Rig

The unfolding disaster at the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico, which promises to be an environmental catastrophe, (click here) the recent disasters at the Upper Big Branch coal mine in West Virginia, and the Kingston, Tennessee fly ash retention pond demonstrate that fossil fuels are dirty and dangerous. Safety and environmental protection are expensive and cannot be guaranteed. The oil will adversely effect fisheries in the Gulf for years. If the oil gets into the Gulf Stream, it will curl around Florida and flow up the coast hitting Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virgina, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and if it flows around the Long Island Sound, Connecticut – all the original 13 states, then Maine and the Atlantic Provinces of Canada.

Rather than harnessing the Gulf Stream to push pollution from the Gulf of Mexico up the Atlantic coast of the United States, we should harness the Gulf Stream for clean renewable energy. (Here’s how.)

Solar and wind, which harness natural processes rather than consume natural resources, provide power without fuels, and without waste: with no arsenic, carbon dioxide, lead, mercury, methane, and other toxins, greenhouse gases or radioactive waste. These systems enable us to meet our needs and allow future generations to meet their needs – and flourish.

Rather than clinging to the dirty and hazardous infrastructure of the past, we must build the clean, renewable, and sustainable infrastructure of the future.

Cape Wind and the Staten Island Ferry solar array and the thousands of other solar and wind projects here in the U. S. and elsewhere on the globe are, to paraphrase Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong, “small steps … yet giant leaps for mankind.”

This post is the First Installment of a series that will follow the unfolding catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico.

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The index is below:

Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, May 3, 2010.
Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, May 7, 2010.
The Magnitude of the Spill, May 15, 2010.
One Month After The Spill BP Siphoning 3,000 Barrels Per Day, May 20, 2010.
Deep Water Horizon – The Chernobyl of Deepwater Drilling?, June 2, 2010.
The Deepwater Horizon: 40,000 Barrels Per Day or 70,000, June 13, 2010.
The Deepwater Horizon After the Macondo Well Explosion, June 19, 2010.
Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes, July 1, 2010.
Like a Bad High School Math Problem, July 14, 2010.
Crisis Management and the Gulf Oil Spill, July 16, 2010.
The Deepwater Horizon: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, October 7, 2010.