Category Archives: politics

Kamala Harris will win the U. S. Presidential election in 2024

New York, NY, 7/28/24. Updated, 8/30/24, 9/21/24. Allan Lichtman, whose model successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections, has made a preliminary projection that Kamala Harris will win the Presidential election in November, 2024.
 
I agree with his assessment. However, I think there are a few things that he misses in his preliminary analysis. First: The polls. According to Fox News, Harris has a higher favorability rating in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“Favoribility” is not votes – neither are polls. However, the national polls, reported by TheHill.com, as of 7/28/24, show Harris closing but slightly behind the twice-impeached failed insurrectionist with 34 Felony convictions.

Update: according to The Hill, as of 8/30/24, Harris leads Trump, 52.6 to 47.4. This matches the NY Times, 49 to 46. According to the NY Times, here, as of Sept. 21, 2024, Harris leads by 2 points nationally, and leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. According to TheHill.com, as of Thursday, Sept. 19, Harris and Trump were deadlocked nationally while Harris was up 4 points in Pennsylvania. (here). So the Polls are close.

Then, there’s Allen Lichtman.

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Boys will be boys. Girls will be girls. And Narcissists … well …

The NY Post‘s bottom of the page headline, “Florida Man Makes Announcement. Page 26” didn’t make it clear, but Donald Trump, announced on November 15, 2022 that he is running for President in 2024.

The fact that the Post wrote “Florida Man” not “Donald Trump,” “President Trump,” etc., speaks volumes. The twice-impeached 45th President of the United States, twice lost the popular vote, said COVID-19 is a hoax, suggested that people drink bleach to cure them of COVID, suggested that people take a drug used to treat intestinal parasites to cure COVID, tried to bribe Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, refused – and still refuses – to admit defeat and accept the results of the 2020 election, stole Top Secret documents related to US national security, and launched an insurrection to hold power.

Question 1 is what’s the worst that could happen.

Question 2 is what is likely to happen.

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Presidents and Dictators

A President

You can read a man like a book. His eyes, his smile, his body language reveal his character. How does he respond to adversity? Does he panic and blame others? Does he seek and listen to counsel and take action? Does he have a sense of humor? Can he take a joke?

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The Art of Gerrymandering – Part I

gerrymander_00

The Original Gerry Mander

The Constitution tasks the House of Representatives with setting the number of U. S. citizens that its members may represent. The Apportionment Act of 1792 fixed the House of Representatives for the Third Congress at 105 members, one Representative for 33,000 constituents. The Census of 1790, first of its kind, found the young nation numbering around 3,900,000 individuals. For purposes of computing the ratio of representatives to those represented, slaves constituted three-fifths of a free person.

112 years on, 1901, roughly midway between the Constitution’s ratification and the present day, each Representative of the 57th Congress fielded the concerns of 213,000 people and carried a six-fold increase in “representational load” over his 1792 counterpart. The House then had 357 members representing around 76 million. Had the House stayed with its 1792 ratio of one Representative to 33,000 constituents, it would have had 2,303 members in 1901, far more than what the seating in the south wing of the Capitol building could accommodate.

114 years on, the 114th Congress finds a House of 435 voting members, a number which has been fixed since the Apportionment Act of 1911. These worthies now represent about 309 million, or roughly 710,000 citizens per Representative, a four-fold increase over the 1901 representational load and a twenty-four fold increase over that of 1792. At the original ratio, the House would have almost 9,364 members, a number making for a mad house – though some think it is anyway.

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Chris Christie, “Gov. Iwazaru” – The Monkey Who Cannot Speak

Hear No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil

Three Monkeys

Chris Christie

Chris Christie

Chris Christie is like Iwazaru, the monkey who cannot speak.

As reported by Christopher Baxter, in the Star Ledger, in 2011, here,  while he vetoed a bill, S2996, that would have required New Jersey to work with other states to limit the greenhouse gases that scientists say are changing the climate, Gov. Christie said, “climate change is real.” He also said  “human activity plays a role in these changes” and that climate change is “impacting our state.”

In a rare moment of humility, he also said, “I can’t claim to fully understand all of this. Certainly not after just a few months of study. But when you have over 90 percent of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role it’s time to defer to the experts.”

He added that climate science is complex and “we know enough to know that we are at least part of the problem.” But that was in 2011. Before Hurricane Sandy.

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Paul Bedard/U.S. News: Ridge book makes additional assertions

Former DHS head Tom Ridge’s new book has made headlines with the assertion that h was pressured to raise the national threat level prior to the 2004 elections.

His credibility on this point can be questioned since the matter has come up before, to which he’s responded “We don’t do politics” at the Department of Homeland Security. The standard question on cross-examination, as any third-year law student should be able to tell you, would be: Were you lyingthen, or are you lyingnow?

Either way, not a favorable impression of Secretary Ridge’s credibility. Let’s then put aside the question of the 2004 pre-election threat levels.

Paul Bedard at U.S. New & World Report reports that the book also contains the following assertions:

  1. Ridge was never invited to sit in on National Security Council meetings;
  2. was “blindsided” by the FBI in morning Oval Office meetings because the agency withheld critical information from him
  3. found his urgings to block Michael Brown from being named head of the emergency agency blamed for the Hurricane Katrina disaster ignored

Mr. Bedard is the author/editor of a feature at USN&WR called Washington Whispers, which we’ll be adding to our RSS feeds.

Assume what one wants about the 2004 elections and the threat levels. Bedard has spotted more troubling issues – (1) and (2) supra suggest that creating the Departmen of Homeland Security may have been a meaningless gesture, and that protestations of interagency cooperation were disingenuous; (3) suggests that someone may actually have spotted the problems with employing someone as FEMA head without any qualifications other than English fluency.

makes assertions

Adam Brown: political scientist/toolmaker

Entirely by happenstance – trying to find a WordPress plugin – we stumbled on the main website for Adam Brown, political scientist extraordinaire. For the geeks among our audience – he’s written WordPress plugins, a House (of representatives) elections predictorMediaWiki helper application, and more. Go look.

He’s also the creator of WikiSummary, the Social Science Summary Database, which summarizes academic political science publications.

Oh, and original research about voting, and other aspects of the political process. Interesting stuff.

Cheney: Obama's Speech "Important."

Interview of the Vice President by Martha Raddatz, ABC News

Shangri-La’s Barr Al Jissah Resort & Spa

Muscat, Oman

10:20 A.M. (Local)

Q Mr. Vice President, I want to start with a speech Barack Obama gave. I doubt you’ve seen the entire speech, but he denounced comments by Reverend Wright, but he didn’t distance himself completely.Do you think he did the right thing?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Martha, one of the things I’ve avoided so far is getting in the middle of the Democratic presidential primary process. And I think I’ll stay there.

Q But it was an important speech.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: It was an important speech, …

Click here for the full transcript, on ‘WhiteHouse.gov’

Presidential Candidates' positions on first responders

Popular Logistics is combing the candidates’ position papers to compare positions in the following areas:

  1. First responders – policy and funding of equipment and training for paid and unpaid, full-time and part-time first responders, and the infrastructure that supports them;
  2. Energy policy (conservation, strengthening power grids, renewable energy, emergency power)
  3. National Health Insurance. Our position is this – ideology is more or less irrelevant in the face of potential bioterror or WMD attacks; if only because of those circumstances – the entire population needs catastrophic health and disability insurance.

We’re going to do these an issue at a time. That’s for two reasons. Because we’ve got limited resources and would like to report as we have something to report. And because, based on our preliminary research, on issue #1 – it looks like the issue isn’t on anyone’s radar screen.

Tancredo characterizes Katrina relief as “gravy train” – eloquent rebuttal by Paul Greenberg

Paul Greenberg writes at Beyond Katrina:

This past weekend, the post-Katrina malaise that has swept the nation took an ugly turn towards full-on insensitivity. Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) had this to say about New Orleans: “It is time the taxpayer gravy train left the New Orleans station.”

Specifically, he urged an end to the federal aid to a city largely still in ruins. “The amount of money that has been wasted on these so-called ‘recovery’ efforts has been mind-boggling,” said the Congressman who is running a long-shot presidential campaign. “Enough is enough.”

And just to be absolutely certain that you and I understood what he was trying to say, he added this: “At some point, state and local officials and individuals have got to step up to the plate and take some initiative. The mentality that people can wait around indefinitely for the federal taxpayer to solve all their worldly problems has got to come to an end.”

Tancredo (just as gentle reminder) is the legislator who voted against the renewal of the historic Voting Rights Act in 2006.

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The Albany Project

We’ve just learned about The Albany Project , a blog which “seeks to return New York State Government to its rightful owners – the people.” Its very existence implicitly makes the point that we can’t write off state politics as a lost cause. And the Albany Project looks like a useful resource for understanding what’s happening up there.

We’ve read – but haven’t yet posted about – New York’s new emergency response bill – but we’re hoping to do so soon, along with a backlog of other posts that have been simmering. There’s a lot that needs to happen in this state to make us reasonably ready to address emergency preparedness and public health. State government can make it easier, or harder. In the end, of course, it’s up to the population – citizens and non-citizens alike – to address preparedness issues. With or without government help.

The Right to Bear Arms

The Second Amendment to the Constitution, as ratified:

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

The Constitution. Wikipedia.
The Bill of Rights.

Wikipedia.

If 10 or 20 other students or their professors at Virginia Tech were “packing heat” then they would have opened fire on Cho after he shot his first few victims. But the problems with that idea are obvious. Some innocent people, perhaps only 2 or 3, would still have been killed Monday, April 16. And I don’t know if I’d feel comfortable seeing guns become as prevalent as cars.

Speaking of cars, I have a right to drive, however, in order to exercise that right in New Jersey I must meet certain prerequsites – pass a road test which proves that I am capable of operating a motor vehicle, pass a written test which proves that I know the rules, maintain my car such that it is “road safe,” and carry liability insurance at or above certain minimums.

We take away driver’s licenses from drunk drivers and people who drive without insurance. We put repeat offenders in jail. You can buy a car without a license and without insurance, but you can’t drive it off the lot. And people buy cars every day.

Shouldn’t we do the same for gun ownership? Shouldn’t we ask gun owners to maintain their guns in a safe and secure manner? And carry insurance in case the guns are used irresponsibily? And disallow certain individuals from obtaining or carrying guns?
And finally, given the right to keep and bear arms because a well armed militia is necessary to the security of a free state, do I have the right to own an F 15 fighter or my own personal nuclear bomb? If not, what arms can I keep and bear? Muskets of the type that were in use during the American Revolution? The rifles of the Civil War era? Or the M16’s of today?

Ann Coulter's function

Ann Coulter’s function may be to be so unreasonable that anyone not quite as unreasonable seems reasonable by comparison. So points out Rebecca Blood in a post explaining the “Overton Window” – something you might have suspected existed – but didn’t know the name for.

the Overton Window is related to my usual argument in favor of certain radical groups: they open up an avenue for discussion and consideration. People may reject PETA’s premise, for example, that animals should never be used in testing of any kind. But in doing so, those same people may decide that—while medical testing on animals is acceptable—certain forms of testing on animals in the manufacture of cosmetics should be eliminated. Come to think of it, I suppose this is the purpose Ann Coulter serves for the far right. She’s so very extreme that almost anyone else appears to be reasonable by comparison. See? I told you this was an idea that kept on giving.

I believe I recall Dave Foreman of Earth First making this point in an article published in Whole Earth Review – but haven’t been able to locate it.

Link to Rebecca Blood’s post here.

The Overton Window explained at the Mackinac Institute, where he worked.

Via KottkeÂ