Category Archives: Systems Thinking

Floods, Oil, Climate Change

Image of Louis Marquez carries his dog, Dallas, through floodwaters after rescuing the dog from his flooded apartment Tuesday in Houston. A FedEx van is in water up to middle of the headlights (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Louis Marquez carries his dog, Dallas, through floodwaters after rescuing the dog from his flooded apartment Tuesday in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

In the spring of this year, the news media reported floods in Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico, France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Australia and elsewhere.

  • 9 US soldiers were lost in floods around Fort Hood in Texas.
  • Other Americans have died in the flooding in Oklahoma.
  • The Louve and Orsay museums in Paris are closed and moving priceless art to higher ground to protect it from the floods.

What’s going on?

Elementary chemistry. Continue reading

Is Fukushima Melting Antarctic Ice?

Image of Explosion at Fukushima

Fukushima Explosion, Courtesy Forbes

A lot of people have been talking about a new dawn of nuclear power (Telegraph, article from 2013 here).  “Fukushima,” they say, perversely, “proves nuclear is safe because only 3 reactors melted down.” They also say, “a culture of safety can make or break nuclear power.” (Japan Times, op-ed, here).

I think these people are not asking the right questions.

For example, the melt-rate of Antarctic ice has double since before 2010, that is since before Fukushima. Andrew Freedman on Mashable, here, and Phil Plait, on Slate, here wrote about a scientific study, accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters which documents the increase in the rate at which Antarctic ice is melting. The study attributes this increased ice-melt-rate to rising ocean temperatures. The conventional wisdom is that “The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing ocean temperatures to rise.” But … what if this is only part of the problem?

What effect, if any, does the release of radiation from the Fukushima melt-down have on ocean temperature and therefore, the rate of melting ice?

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After XP – Windows 7, Windows 8, Linux, the Mac or Retirement?

Win7StartOn April 8, 2014 Microsoft will end support for Windows XP, Internet Explorer 6, Office 2003, and MS Exchange Server 2003. If you still use XP, and according to Net Market Share, as of Dec. 22, 2013, 31% of people on the Internet still use Windows XP, then you should plan on migrating to Windows 7, Windows 8, Linux or the Mac before April 9, 2014. Or retiring.

As I see it, the main reason to upgrade is security. Another reason is performance. The bottom line is money.

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Fort Calhoun – Still Shut Down – Since April, 2011

Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant, within the Missouri

Ft. Calhoun Nuclear Station, within the Missouri

The Fort Calhoun Nuclear Plant, (OPPD / NRC) 19 Miles from Omaha, Nebraska, was shut-down for refueling in April, 2011. Flooded by the Missouri River in June, 2011, the plant remains shut-down. It Will Be Two Years – 2 YEARS – In April!

The Omaha Public Power District, OPPD has raised rates 6.9% to finance a $143 million repair bill. This does not include the costs to the OPPD to purchase electricity that the plant would provide – which is 25% of the power that the OPPD needs on a daily basis.. This also does not include costs to replace teflon coated wiring – which disintegrates on exposure to high levels of radiation – and costs to repair some of the plant’s support structures.  This also probably does not include the costs to the district for Excelon to run the plant for the next 20 years, reported on Jan. 28, 2013, by Kevin Cole, of Omaha.com, the Omaha World-Herald, (here),

“For the first year of management work, OPPD will pay Exelon between $20 million and $26.5 million.”

In a telephone interview with me, in August, 2011, David Lochbaum, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, UCS, estimated the total cost of maintaining the plant and purchasing replacement electricity to be $1.0 million per day – roughly $600 million, to date.

By asking Exelon to run the plant, it looks like the OPPD has decided to keep the plant running. Similarly, by requiring the OPPD to do what needs to be done to bring the plant back up, it seems like the NRC has decided that this 50 year old and severely constrained nuclear power plant is worth bringing back on line. Who is asking whether or not this is a good idea?  It seems to me that OPPD would be better off asking Warren Buffett, Omaha based head of Berkshire Hathaway how to manage their assets than asking Exelon to spend whatever it takes to “Bring this bad boy back on-line.”

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2012 Revisited

Crystal Ball

In “The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012, here, I wrote:

  1. Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.” (Mostly Correct, except Apple did better than I expected.)
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.” (Wrong)
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die. (The number of accidents was underestimate. Their magnitude was overestimated – however … )
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. (Wrong)
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%. (Wrong on WalMart, right on Credit Unions, altho the numbers were off.)
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase. (Right. Very Right!)
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall. (Wrong – but there’s still time.)
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States. (sadly, true, but not as bad as it could have been – thanks to Obama)
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.” (Right on Obama and the American voter. Wrong on Arpaio)
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. (Right, tho I would have like to have been wrong on this one.)

Here are the details. Continue reading

Gonorrhea Evolving; Almost Untreatable

Treatment history. Courtesy of CDC and the AthlanticJames Hamblin, MD, at The Atlantic, here,  writes,

The list of effective antibiotics has been dwindling as the bacteria became resistant, and now it’s down to one. Five years ago, the CDC said fluoroquinolones were no longer effective, but oral cephalosporins were still a common/easy treatment. Now injected ceftriaxone is the only recommended effective drug we have left. And it has to be given along with either azithromycin or doxycycline.

Dr. Hamblin and The Atlantic also reproduced the graphic, above, tracing the treatments in use from 1988 to 2010.  Penicillins stopped being effective in the early 1990’s. While this news is disturbing, it also illustrates how evolution works. A small percentage survive because of natural resistance. They reproduce. Their offspring have the resistant genes.  Whether it’s grey moths that are obvious on trees in pristine environments and difficult to see on trees where the smog coloured the bark, pests in a farm field, or infectious bacteria, the principle is the same.

Looking from a whole systems perspective, maybe we need to develop medications that stimulate the human immune response, rather than medications that try to kill the bacteria. Continue reading

Cleaning Up In Hospitals

Germs on the hand

Germs on the Hand. Courtesy Talk is Cheap

5% of hospital patients develop an infection. And the majority of those infections are acquired from the hands of Health Care Providers.

Medicare pays 40% of the nation’s hospital bills. (This, in and of itself, is an argument for a single payer system – one single payer already pays 40% of hospital bills. And it’s the Government.) However, Medicare does not reimburse hospitals for their mistakes. It shouldn’t. If I borrow your car, and run out of gas, it’s my fault, not yours. Note that this is an example of the government doing something right.

Because of this policy decision, medical accidents went from being a source of hospital revenue to a massive financial drain. Medical institutions were forced into the business of disease prevention, at least once people were in their care.

According to the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths statistics, (PDF) hospital acquired infections kill more people in America than AIDS, Breast Cancer and Auto Accidents combined. What is worse is that 5% of the patients in hospitals acquire infections in the hospital, and the vast majority of the patients that acquire such infections in hospitals get them from the hands of health care providers.

More details after the click.

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Do We Need Nuclear Power? Part 3

Aerial photo of Indian Point, courtesy Columbia University Earth Institute

Indian Point, Aerial view, courtesy Earth Institute

Indian Point’s two reactors, operating since 1974 and 1976, generate up to 30 percent of New York City and Westchester’s power. Yet the plant remains controversial.

March 1, 2012, Michael Gerrard, director of the Center for Climate Change Law, moderated  the Forum on the Future of Indian Point held at Columbia Law School. The forum asked whether Indian Point was “Safe, Secure and Vital or an Unacceptable Risk?”   Renee Cho covered it on the Columbia Earth Institute blog, here.

I was not there. However, have some thoughts …

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It's The Feedback – It's Always The Feedback

NYPD Interacts WithProtester  Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet On Nov 2, 2011, Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would overturn the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court (Technorati / WSJ).

The managers of Bank of America, who accepted $45 billion in TARP money, and decided to pay back its customers with a $5 per month fee for the privilege of holding a debit card, recently recently decided to reverse course on the fee for debit cards ( CBS Miami /Oregon Live).

Meanwhile, back on the streets, the authorities appear to believe that a show of force and the use of force by the police will quell the demonstrations. Yet the opposite is the case. As the cops overreact – pepper spraying 4 women in NYC (NY Times / YouTube), running over a lawyer for the Occupiers (CBS / Daily Mail / Salon / Yahoo) people get angrier and join the Occupation – causing the police to either moderate or escalate their response.

The Plot to Sieze the White HouseAfter a US Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq war was injured in Oakland other veterans come to occupations all over the country. They came quoting Smedley Darlington Butler, the Marine Corps General who wrote “War is a Racket,” ISBN: 978-1434407009, and figured in the events described in “The Plot to Seize The White House,” by Jules Archer, ISBN: 978-1602390362.

These are examples of balancing feedback loops, as described by Dana Meadows in Thinking in Systems, A Primer, ISBN: 978-1603580557. (A researcher with Jay Forrester at MIT and Dartmouth, Meadows founded the Sustainability Institute.)

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Beyond Fuel – for the 21st Century – Cocoa Beach, Sept. 17

Space Coast Green Living Festival

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet I will be presenting Beyond Fuel: From Consuming Natural Resources to Harnessing Natural Processes at the Space Coast Green Living Festival, Cocoa Beach, Florida, Sept 17, 2011.  The festival  is sponsored by the Cocoa Beach Surfrider Foundation and the Sierra Club Turtle Coast Group. It will be at the Cocoa Beach Courtyard by Marriott. Haley Sales, (Website / Facebook / Youtube),a local singer / songwriter, will perform.

Hayley Sales

Our current energy paradigm today is to fuel based. We burn oceans of oil and methane mountains of coal. And there are consequences.  We suffer oil spills, polluted water, mercury, coal mine disasters, nuclear power plant melt-downs, we fight wars …

According to the DoE, in 2010 we burned 1,085,281 thousand short tons of coal and 15,022 thousand short tons of coke (here).

Wind and solar don’t burn fuel. The winds blow, the sun shines, you put a widget in the path of those moving particles in the air or those photons of light and you get electricity – without greenhouse gases, radioactive wastes, toxic wastes, and it costs less. So the question is not ‘Can we meet our energy needs with clean, sustainable renewable energy technologies?” The real question are How? How Much? And How quickly?

100% Clean Energy
100 Gigawatts Wind $300 Billion
100 GW Marine Hydro $300 B
50 GW Solar $200 B
50 GW Geothermal $200 B
200 GW Equiv Efficiency $200 B
A Smart Grid $100 B
500 GW or GW Equiv. $1.3 Trillion

And we could do it within 25 Years if we wanted to.

Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, coined the term “Negawatt” to mean energy you don’t need to buy, as in “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t have to buy.” The next cheapest, the “nega-fuel-watt” is the unit of energy that doesn’t require fuel.

So What If We Default?

Tweet Follow LJF97 on Twitter   Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

Hong Lei, spokesman for foreign affairs of China

Chinese Spokesman for Foreign Affairs

If, on August 2, 2011, the United States defaults on various debt obligations, then historians may well consider that date as the date on which the United States of America ceases to occupy the position it has held since the end of World War II.  However, August 2, 2011, may be the end of the beginning. If so, it will mark a point of inflection in a curve that maps processes that has been in motion for a long time. The trends in personal debt, bankruptcy, home foreclosures, unemployment, and the disparity of income and assets between the wealthiest 10% of the population and the other 90% have developed over years.

July 14, 2011, Bastille Day in France, may be considered to mark the coming of age of the successor to the United States as the superpower of the 21st Century, and that would be China.  In “China Urges U.S. to Protect Creditors by Raising Debt,” Bettina Wassener in Hong Kong and Matthew Saltmarsh in Paris report in the New York Times, that “Hong Lei, a Chinese foreign affairs spokesman, urged the United States to protect the interests of foreign investors.” As one of the United States’s biggest creditors, China, which holds over $1.0 Trillion in US Treasury bills, “urged American policy makers on Thursday to act to protect investors’ interests, highlighting rising concerns around the globe about the protracted budget talks taking place in Washington.”

These mark gradual processes of waxing and waning of cultures and economies. These did not happen overnight. It did not happen with the election and inauguration of Barack Obama as 44th President of the United States, as spokespeople of the Tea-Republican Party, and News Corp (some of whom are in both) may assert. Nor did it happen in 2000 with the Presidential Election, the Supreme Court decision which decided the election, and the subsequent inauguration of George W. Bush as the 43rd President.

The development of the US as a superpower at the end of World War II was facilitated by the election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt to the office of President in 1932, and his reelections in ’36, ’40, and ’44.  However, it was less President Roosevelt himself than the progressive economic policies of the New Deal that he put in place.  Similarly the descent from superpower status and the crumbling of American infrastructure have been slow processes. Perhaps it began with the conflation of news and entertainment and the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 under President Reagan.

In order, therefore, for the United States to continue to be a superpower, we need to return to the progressive economic policies that build infrastructure and finance infrastructure projects by taxes, rather than by mortgaging our children’s futures to potentially unfriendly foreign powers such as Communist China.

The wisest, but least easy course would be to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire and increase taxes. Everyone should pay their fair share.

Finally,

If we increase the debt ceiling, will China continue to buy U.S. Treasury Bills?

China holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury Bills, about 7.5% of our debt.  Is that in our national interest?

Karzai half-brother assassinated by confidant

Ahmed Wali Karzai  Tweet Follow LJF97 on Twitter   As reported in The New York Times, Christian Science Monitor, and elsewhere, Ahmed Wali Karzi was killed by Sardar Mohammed. Mr. Mohammed, who is described as “an associate,” was a commander of security posts south of Kandahar. He was reported killed by Mr. Karzai’s bodyguards. The late Mr. Karzai had been linked to the drug trade and corrupt security companies.  The Christian Science Monitor sited Wikileaks here as quoting official US concern regarding Ahmad Karzi.

“AWK [Ahmad Wali Karzai] operates parallel to formal government structures, through a network of political clans that use state institutions to protect and enable licit and illicit enterprises,” wrote a US official in one of the leaked cables.

What will happen next? What other shoes will drop?

Given the relative opacity of the situation(s)  in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States’ troubled relationships with both countries, the potential parallels to the plot of The Godfather and MacBeth are unsettling. Continue reading

Ask Obama – Internet Town Hall

What would I #AskObama (on Twitter or in person)?

1: #AskObama Economists think in terms of resources. How do we change the conversation to think in terms of processes, systems, interactions?

2: #AskObama Neoclassical Economics: Resources & Wastes. Ecological Economics: Systems: Stocks, Flows, Processes. Burn Coal: Fuel ergo Waste. Solar: No fuel ergo no waste.

3: #AskObama Ecological Economics: “Like neoclassical but a better understanding of time and costs.” Marlboro MBA Managing for Sustainability.

At 2pm EDT, July 6, 2011, President Obama will participate in the first Twitter town hall at the White House to discuss the economy and jobs with Americans across the country. The entire event will be streamed live at WhiteHouse.gov. Right now, thousands of people are talking about the event and asking questions on Twitter, using the #AskObama hashtag.  Take a moment to join the conversation and ask your own question.

Nuclear Power and Russian Roulette

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet After Chernobyl, Hans Bethe, pictured at left, said “the Chernobyl disaster tells us about the deficiencies of the Soviet political and administrative system rather than about problems with nuclear power” (PBS).  Dr. Bethe is right.  Managing nuclear power and our energy infrastructure is not limited to physics and engineering. It also involves economics, human ecology, national security and systems dynamics. It is logical to conclude that because the Chernobyl disaster was a hydrogen explosion in a badly designed nuclear power plant brought about by Soviet style mis-management, nuclear technology can be implemented safely. However, the data from Three Mile Island and Fukushima suggest that nuclear power, when implemented safely, is too expensive to compete with alternatives (hence the industry needs loan guarantees here in the USA). We need to think about energy in the context of Systems Dynamics, as discussed in “Thinking in Systems,” by Dr. Donella Meadows, also pictured at left, of MIT, Dartmouth, and the Sustainability Institute.

Similar arguments have been advanced after Fukushima. “As long as we don’t build them near earthquake faults, especially earthquake faults near oceans …” While the probability of an accident is low (altho business as usual does raise some concerns) the probability of an accident that occurs being catastrophic is very high!

Looking at Indian Point, which is on an earthquake fault, and thinking about systems, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima …

The area within a 50 mile radius of Indian Point includes New York City, Westchester, Rockland, and Nassau counties of New York, western Connecticut, and northern New Jersey. About 20 million people live there. Entergy says it’s “Safe, Secure, and Vital.” Others – who live near the plant – say it’s not safe, not secure, not vital, and Should Be Closed!

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Apple v Microsoft, 2011.

Graph of Apple and Microsoft, stock price, 1980 to 2010At a seminar on June 9, 2011, on securing the mobile worker, Apple‘s representative said  “We truly did not understand what we built.” That’s a direct quote. He went on to say “Here’s how they use it at GE, and Hyatt, and in the pharmaceutical industry.” A few minutes later he said “When users tell us what they can’t do, what they need to do, we listen, so tell us what you need.” At seminars on Microsoft‘s products, their consultants describe their software by saying “This is what we built, this is what it does, and here are our best practices – this is how you should use our software.”

This  is it. Apple’s “We truly did not understand what we built,” versus Microsoft’s “This is what we built, this is what it does, and here are our best practices – this is how you should use our software.” These statements define the corporate cultures.

Apple, at $325 per share, is a $300 billion company. With earnings of 21 per share, it has a price earnings  ratio of 15.8. It has no debt.  It is down slightly from it’s high of around $350 per share, reached a few weeks ago. There are 46,000 employees. Net income of 5.99 Billion on $24.67 Billion.  Microsoft, at $24 per share, is a $200 billion company. With earnings of $2.92 per share it has a P/E of 9.44. There are 89,000 employees, $16.4 billion revenue and $5.2 billion net income.

Microsoft’s income per dollar of revenue is higher – but they don’t make hardware. Revenue per employee at Microsoft is $184,000. Revenue per Employee at Apple is $536,000.  Income per Employee at Microsoft is $58,000. Income per Employee at Apple is $130,000.

These data are summarized below,

Employees Net Income Revenues Inc / Emp Rev / Emp
(Millions) (Millions)
Apple 46,000 $5,990 $24,670 $130,217 $536,304
Microsoft 89,000 $5,200 $16,400 $58,427 $184,270

 

When I last looked at Apple and Microsoft, October 30, 2010, here,  Apple was 305.24 per share, with an EPS, of $15.15 and a P/E of 20.147. It’s market capitalization was $279.59 Billion. Microsoft was $26.28, with an EPS of 2.11, P/E ratio of 12.48 and market capitalization of $227.42 Billion, $52 Billion less than that of Apple.  Today Apple’s market capitalization is up 25% to $300 billion and Microsoft’s market capitalization is down about 12% to $200 billion. Apple’s market capitalization is $100 billion higher than Microsoft’s.  Apple’s all time high stock price was a few weeks ago, and I expect it will bounce back and keep climbing as long as they keep selling hardware and software that shifts the paradigm. Microsoft’s was in 1999.  I don’t expect Microsoft to go out of business, but it’s days of shifting the paradigm and tremendous growth are gone.

The iPad (Apple site, here) is a paradigm shifting device.  It has a dual core A5 processor, 16, 32, or 64 GB of flash memory, and no moving parts (other than electrons, which are hard to keep still).  Treated properly, it should last for 10 or 20 years.  It adds a layer of durability and obsolescence resistance to personal electronics.  It puts us on the road from “disposable” consumer electronics back to durable, sustainable consumer electronics  (click here).

And it’s selling by the millions. Apple has sold 200 million iOS devices – iPhones, iPads, iPods Touch, that’s one for two out of three Americans. It’s sold 25 Million iPads, 14 million in 2010 and 11 million in the first half of 2011. The sales projections from Wall Street are tremendous, (Florin at UnWired, Schonfeld at Tech CrunchElmer-DeWitt at Fortune). People buy multiple devices, e.g., iPhone and iPad or iPod Touch and iPad.  These are driving sales of music, apps – by the billions –  and the Mac. Microsoft is buying SKYPE, which is a great company with a great product but it doesn’t know how to make money. Apple is going up, both in terms of market capitalization and earnings. Microsoft is going nowhere.

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