Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: UP 128%, Fossil Fuels: DOWN 16%

PLPort.2015.3.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the Fossil Fuel space. The pattern, clear by March, 2013, is the Sustainable Energy Space is outperforming and the Fossil Fuel space is underperforming the indices.

Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.7 Million, down 16.07%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.2 Million, up 127.62%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.47%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 18,209 on 3/20/15
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.42%, from 1,430 to 2,108.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 109%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 11.8%

PopLogPort.150221
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs,

  • Fossil Fuel portfolio: from $8.0 M to $7.06 Million, down 11.76%.
  • Sustainable Energy portfolio: from $8.0 M to $16.73 Million, up 109.18%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: from 13,091 to 18,140, up 34.15 %,
  • The S&P 500: from 1,430 to 2,110,  up 42.10%.

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If Not Vaccines, What Triggers Autism?

Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman in Casablanca, 1943

Humphrey Bogart as Rick and Ingrid Bergman as Ilsa in Casablanca, 1942

“Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine” – “Casablanca.

Once rare, the incidence of Autism has increased exponentially from less than 0.02% of boys to 2.38%.

Before the MMR Vaccine: 400 to 500 died each year as Millions contracted the disease. Due to widespread administration of the vaccine, the incidence of Measles dropped to 37 reported cases in 2004.  But because people believe (falsely) that the MMR vaccine triggers Autism, they stopped immunizing their children. There were 644 cases of Measles in 2014.

If the MMR Vaccine does not trigger Autism, what does?  Glyphosate? Possibly. And what’s Glyphosate? The active ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup.

This is a story of unintended consequences.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 1 Month: Sustainable Energy up 85%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 14.6%

PLPort.2015.1.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, drying off from Hurricane Sandy, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34.15 % from 12/21/12 to 1/21/15
  • The S&P 500 is up 42.10%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio has dropped 14.55%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 85.09%.

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Energy Portfolios, 24 Months: Sustainable Energy up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%

PLEP_M24On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy spaces and eight in the fossil fuels spaces. The results:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.2 % from 12/21/12 to 12/19/14.
  • The S&P 500 is up 44.8% from 12/21/12.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio has dropped 10.00%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 91.34% from Dec. 21, 2012 but down from August, 2014.

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The War on Coal or War for our Grandchildren and our Biosphere?

Earth from Space. Courtesy NASA & the American Taxpayer

Earth from Space. Courtesy NASA & the American Taxpayer

Coral Davenport, in the New York Times, writes (here),

“President Obama could leave office with the most aggressive, far-reaching environmental legacy of any occupant of the White House. Yet it is very possible that not a single major environmental law will have passed during his two terms in Washington.

“Instead, Mr. Obama has turned to the vast reach of the Clean Air Act of 1970, which some legal experts call the most powerful environmental law in the world. Faced with a Congress that has shut down his attempts to push through an environmental agenda, Mr. Obama is using the authority of the act passed at the birth of the environmental movement to issue a series of landmark regulations on air pollution, from soot to smog, to mercury and planet-warming carbon dioxide.”

The coal industry skels from both parties consider this a “War on Coal.” Environmentalists could argue that it is a war for our grandchildren, a war for the biosphere, and even a war for a competitive 21st Century economy. Political hyperbole aside, it seems that any “War on Coal” is being waged by the methane and fracking industries, OPEC, and the “Invisible Hand” of the marketplace, not the President of the United States and the United States Environmental Protection Agency, EPA.

Energy Portfolios, 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuels DOWN (slightly)

PLPort.2014.11.21On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. At the close of trading, Nov. 21, 2014, that would be worth $24.3 Million and all of the increase is in the sustainable energy portfolio.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.05 % from 12/21/12 to 11/21/14.
  • The S&P 500 is up 44.34% from 12/21/12.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio has DROPPED 0.02%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 105.99% from Dec. 21, 2012 but down from August, 2014.

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Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping

PLPort.2014.10.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. Between December 21, 2012 and October 21, 2014

By 10/15/14, GT Advanced Tech had filed for bankruptcy protection, and other stocks in the portfolio dropped to points near their Dec. 2012. The portfolio as a whole dropped 55% from Sept. 19, 2014. Stay tuned, and keep your seat belt on. Continue reading →

Ft. Calhoun Plant – Reopened After 2 Years, 8 Months and Over $970 Million

Fort Calhoun plant, seen from above.

Ft Calhoun Plant – Arial View

The Fort Calhoun nuclear plant reopened in December, 2013. The plant, on the west bank of the Missouri River about 20 miles north of Omaha, Nebraska, closed for refueling in April, 2011, and was flooded in June, 2011. Refueling a nuclear plant typically takes about 6 – 12 weeks. Due to the flooding, the Fort Calhoun plant was closed for 970 days, from April, 2011 until December, 2013. (NY Times / Associated Press, here). Back in June, 2011, the cost estimate by David Lochbaum, Union of Concerned Scientists, was roughly $970 Million in lost revenue, plus the costs of repairs. Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios – Simple Analysis re the Fossil Fuel Portfolio

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

The Deepwater Horizon Spill

“You can’t have oil without oil spills.” – Markwayne Mullin, R, Oklahoma. (Official / GovTrack)

Wind and Sun Won’t Spill

In a period when the Dow Industrials rose 30%, the S&P 500 rose 40%, and the Popular Logistics “Sustainable Energy Portfolio” rose 223%, the “Fossil Fuel Portfolio” rose 21%.

This suggests that a paradigm shift is underway in the energy industry.

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Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusions & Observations

PL_Port_1408Conclusions:

  1. The performance of most of the companies in these portfolios supports the hypothesis that a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy systems is underway.
  2. Investing in an index fund may have been more lucrative – and less stressful – than investing in the Fossil Fuel portfolio.
  3. Investing in paradigm shifting technology, i.e., First Solar, Sunpower, GT Advanced Technology and Vestas may be very lucrative.
  4. A diversified portfolio in paradigm shifting technology may also be effective. The “home runs” will more than make up for the “strike-outs.”
  5. Investing in a well-run, or well-connected, company, i.e., Haliburton, in a declining industry may also be lucrative.

Observations:

  1. The long term trend appears to be that investments in Sustainable Energy are likely to pay off in the long term and also, probably, the short term.
  2. Investments in Fossil Fuels, however do not appear likely to appreciate in the near future, even in a “Bull Market,” such as we appear to be in.  However, a speculator, i.e., a gambler, may be able to play various fossil fuel stocks, buying at lows and selling at highs. While I am not an investment professional, I personally, don’t know if this is worth the risk. I prefer to do my gambling in Atlantic City, New Jersey and Las Vegas, Nevada.
  3. When considered against the backdrop of global geopolitics, i.e., Russia, which exports oil and methane, invading Ukraine, ISIS in Iraq and Syria threatening to take over Iraqi oil operations, other turmoil in the Middle East, a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels seems likely to insulate energy flows from remote geopolitical events and strengthen economies that have executed this paradigm shift. Therefore, investments supporting such a paradigm shift may do well, while investments supporting the existing paradigm may not.

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Energy Portfolios, 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuel up 18.4%

PL_Port_1408On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 iMil in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 iMil in the fossil fuel space.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30.16 % from 12/21/12.

  • The S&P 500 is up 39.3% from 12/21/12.

  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio continues to dramatically underperform the reference indices. It is up 18.36% from Dec. 21, 2012 and down 5.67% from July, 2014.

  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 229.19% from Dec. 21, 2012.

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Colony Collapse Disorder

Californians have been growing almonds for a long time. "The Almond Grove At T. H. Selby's Residence, Fair Oaks, Cal." ca. 1870. NY Public Library

Californians have grown almonds for a long time. “Almond Grove At T. H. Selby’s Residence, Fair Oaks, Cal.” ca. 1870. NY Public Library

2006 was something of a banner year for both beekeepers and growers. A high fraction of beekeepers experienced better than 50% losses. Many growers could not rent bees at any price. Lots of almond groves in California went without pollination that year, and, as with many species of nuts, if the pollen isn’t carried over from an unrelated plant, nuts do not develop. Almonds, like many crops, (and most nuts) do not self-pollinate. Unless pollinated by an agent like a honey bee, they just don’t bear fruit. The price of almonds shot up in 2006 and has not dropped very much since.

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The case of the Disappearing Bee

Now you see her; now you don't

Now you see her; now you don’t.

There aren’t enough bees to perform all of the pollination work in the United States. So, if you like to travel, make money doing it, and don’t mind a sting now and again, then professional beekeeping may just be for you.  And hey – it’s a seller’s market.

About 1.4 million hives get hauled to and around California every spring. They travel by plane, semi or pickup trucks. 60% of the American hives are engaged in commercial pollination. They pollinate almond trees, and other key crops:

  • Cranberries in Massachusetts and New Jersey.
  • Blueberries and peaches from Jersey to Georgia,
  • Pumpkins from Jersey to Illinois.
  • If it comes from a flowering plant, it’s pollinated by bees.

You can take your bees “On The Road” and make money without writing a word. And if you actually hate to travel, you can just send the bees.

Just make sure they all don’t all disappear.

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Behind Oz’s Curtain

Bill Thompson

Bill Thompson

Behind Oz’s Curtain of ‘Law and Order’

By C.C. Reilly

Bill Thompson: Schools not Prisons

“The [$34 million] the city wants to spend on [the Brooklyn House of Detention design] contract would be better used as a means to reduce class sizes and build more schools.”
NYC Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr.
November 19, 2009

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