New York, NY, 7/28/24. Updated, 8/30/24, 9/21/24. Allan Lichtman, whose model successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections, has made a preliminary projection that Kamala Harris will win the Presidential election in November, 2024.
 
I agree with his assessment. However, I think there are a few things that he misses in his preliminary analysis. First: The polls. According to Fox News, Harris has a higher favorability rating in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“Favoribility” is not votes – neither are polls. However, the national polls, reported by TheHill.com, as of 7/28/24, show Harris closing but slightly behind the twice-impeached failed insurrectionist with 34 Felony convictions.

Update: according to The Hill, as of 8/30/24, Harris leads Trump, 52.6 to 47.4. This matches the NY Times, 49 to 46. According to the NY Times, here, as of Sept. 21, 2024, Harris leads by 2 points nationally, and leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. According to TheHill.com, as of Thursday, Sept. 19, Harris and Trump were deadlocked nationally while Harris was up 4 points in Pennsylvania. (here). So the Polls are close.

Then, there’s Allen Lichtman.

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