Tag Archives: HP

Announcing the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology

Hot on the heels of the December 21, 2012 launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Sustainable Energy, here, up 22.36%, I am announcing the launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology. Roughly $1.0 million in Apple, Google, HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.(Their investor relations pages are AppleGoogle, HPIBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.)

 

Tech Virtual Portfolio
Item Stock Price Shares Total
1 Apple $446 2,242 $1,000,000
2 Google $795 1,258 $1,000,000
3 HP $17 59,559 $1,000,000
4 IBM $198 5,051 $1,000,000
5 Intel $20 50,000 $1,000,000
6 Microsoft $27 37,037 $1,000,000
7 Oracle $24 41,667 $1,000,000
total $7,000,000
Table 1. Acquisitions, Start of Business, 2/22/13

Generally speaking, here’s what I expect:

  • Apple, IBM: I expect to significantly outperform the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
  • Google: I expect to perform in line with the Dow Jones and S&P.
  • HP: An investment in HP is speculative. Whitman may turn the company around. The stock might wildly outperform the Dow & the S&P. As Gerstner might say, however, it’s hard to teach an elephant to dance. The stock may plummet.
  • Intel, Oracle, I don’t know enough to have an expectation.
  • Microsoft may become a leading indicator of the economy.  Thus, if the S&P does well, Microsoft may do better.

These are in table 2, below

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Apple at $665 per share – or $705 – or $1077

space-apple-logo

Apple, if it can be compared to Google, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle, should be priced at 665 per share. This analysis is simply based on Stock Price, Earnings per Share (EPS) and the Price Earnings ratio. or P/E. The average P/E of these companies is 15.08. If Apple’s stock was 15.08 times earnings, it would be 665. If you take Apple out of the mix, the average P/E becomes 16.01. At 16.01 times earnings, Apple’s stock price would be 705. And if priced like Google, $1077. Continue reading

2012 Revisited

Crystal Ball

In “The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012, here, I wrote:

  1. Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.” (Mostly Correct, except Apple did better than I expected.)
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.” (Wrong)
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die. (The number of accidents was underestimate. Their magnitude was overestimated – however … )
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. (Wrong)
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%. (Wrong on WalMart, right on Credit Unions, altho the numbers were off.)
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase. (Right. Very Right!)
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall. (Wrong – but there’s still time.)
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States. (sadly, true, but not as bad as it could have been – thanks to Obama)
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.” (Right on Obama and the American voter. Wrong on Arpaio)
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. (Right, tho I would have like to have been wrong on this one.)

Here are the details. Continue reading

HP v Apple: The Secret or The Curse

Hewlett Packard‘s CEO Meg Whitman has her work cut out for her. It’s not just the losses due to alleged fraud committed by the management at Autonomy prior to its acquisition by HP. HP, a $25.05 Billion company, is writing off losses of $18.3 Billion to $18.5 Billion in calendar year 2012. The losses equate to 73.0% to 73.8% of the company’s value.

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HP: What Next After Autonomy?

 

 

A cartoon shows a man in a tattered suit, in a cave, telling his children "Yes the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment we created a lot of value for shareholders."

The adult in the cartoon is not Carly Fiorina, Mark Hurd, Leo Apotheker formerly of HP, or John Lynch, formerly of HP & Autonomy. While the three ex-CEOs were paid a total of $80 Million after being fired (here), they did NOT create shareholder value. Under their guidance, the company lost 77.92% of its peak value; the shareholders lost $81.54 Billion between Dec. 31, 1999 (here) and the close of trading, Nov. 23, 2012.

While Autonomy’s $10 Billion valuation may have been John Lynch’s fraud – the FBI and it’s counterparts in London are investigating (here) –  HP’s acquisition of Autonomy was Leo Apotheker’s error, and has become Meg Whitman’s problem. I’m sure that if Whitman is unsuccessful, or the Board fires her before she can be successful, she will be well taken care of, as were Fiorina, Hurd, and Apotheker. Meanwhile Bill Hewlett & Dave Packard – who created value for the shareholders and other stakeholders – must be turning over in their graves.

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Sustainability in Consumer Electronics

SONY EX 7

Apple Logo
Apple, Blackberry, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Motorola, Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba and other consumer electronics companies can be less unsustainable than their competitors and less unsustainable tomorrow than they are today. However, given:

  1. The state of the art in manufacturing,Blackberry
  2. Electronics are made with designs that are supplanted before they wear out, and
  3. Recycling consumer electronics is expensive and releases toxins,

the consumer electronics industry can not, almost by definition,  be “Sustainable.” For what they need to do, click beneath the fold.

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