Tag Archives: Hurricane Sandy

In RE Carbon Dioxide – The EPA is Listening

Hurricane Sandy, via satellite, 10/27/12, NOAA

The people at the Environmental Protection Agency understand the issue of increasing atmospheric Carbon Dioxide above 350 PPM. And EPA is listening. EPA has held two public comment periods in New York City on 10/23/13 and will hold nine additional public comment hearings across the country to “solicit ideas and input from the public and stakeholders about the best Clean Air Act approaches to reducing carbon pollution from existing power plants.”

Boston, MA	11/04/13	Philadelphia, PA	11/08/13
Chicago, IL	11/08/13	San Francisco, CA	11/05/13
Dallas, TX	11/07/13	Seattle, WA	11/07/13
Denver, CO	10/30/13	Washington, DC	11/07/13
Lenexa, KS	11/04/13

Click HERE to register.

And as President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly …”

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Jersey Shore 350.org:Tues. 9/3/13, Stay Gold Cafe, Belmar, NJ, 6:00 PM

Jersey Shore Damage from Hurricane Sandy. U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen

Approximately 97% of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, which have increased atmospheric CO2 from roughly 265 parts per million, PPM, in 1800 to 400 PPM today. Many of these scientists and climate experts agree we must reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from current levels to below 350 PPM.

Along with climate-warming comes extreme weather, and events like Hurricane Irene, 2011, Hurricane Sandy, 2012. 350 Jersey Shore aims to inform New Jersey residents of our climate challenges, and provide solutions to help reduce carbon emissions locally and beyond.

Organized by Stephen Fowler of Echo Movement, 350 Jersey Shore, an arm of 350.0rg is meeting on Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2013 at 6:00 PM at the Stay Gold Cafe, Belmar, NJ. ( Event Link )

Barbara Buono will Win, Apple will Grow, Assad will Die and other forecasts for 2013

In “The World Will Not End and Other Predictions for 2012,” I developed a set of predictions for 2012, the accuracy of which were described by me in 2012 Revisited. Here are my predictions for 2013. As noted last year, I am extrapolating from patterns that I see – also known as reading tea leaves.

New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie will lose his re-election campaign to NJ Senator Barbara Buono, pictured with me, above. The Tea Party Republicans will not compromise with President Obama, Democrats in the House and Senate, or the Republican Leadership in the House and Senate. They will, again, threaten to shut-down the U. S. government.
A major hurricane will batter the Gulf Coast or the Eastern Seaboard, causing $25 to $80 Billion worth of damage. FEMA will be there to help.
Apple will continue to report record sales and record profits. It will close out the year with a market capitalization around $650 Billion, up from today’s level of $470 Billion. If HP‘s Board doesn’t fire CEO Meg Whitman, HP may return to profitability. Dell‘s market share and market capitalization will fall.
The wind and solar industries will increase in the US and globally, particularly Japan, which is now planning to have 100% renewable energy by 2040, and India, which is learning from the mistakes being made in China, Japan, and the West.
Large industrial conglomerates will continue to design and sell wind turbines, LED lighting, PV solar modules and more energy efficient medical devices, etc.
Assad will fall – and will die – by the end of 2014.
Mohammed Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood will consolidate power in Egypt, but will not abandon the Egypt – Israel peace treaty.
Iran will provide weapons and support to Islamists in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
Israel, feeling threatened, and very concerned regarding Iran, Syria and Egypt, will ignore pressure to negotiate with the Palestinians.
Roger Saillant and RP Siegel will not win any awards for their novel, Vapor Trails.

For an overview of the details see below.

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Power, Infrastructure, Hurricanes, and Emergencies

Hurricane Sandy, the 1,000 mile diameter storm brought rain, wind, water and power failures to 10.4 million from North Carolina up to Maine, and west to Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan in the USA and another 145,000 people in Canada, over 1.5 million people. As NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo said, here, “We have old infrastructure and new weather patterns… climate change is a reality, extreme weather is a reality, it is a reality that we are vulnerable.”

We need to build infrastructure that is more resistant to extreme storms, and resilient in the face of these kinds of storms.

Map showing people without power from Hurricane Sandy

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Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm

Hurricane Sandy, NOAA handout satellite image taken on October 27, 2012. Note the size and position of the storm.

Hurricane Sandy, aka “The Frankenstorm,” a Hurricane with Snow, the 19th named storm of the 2012 season, is projected to hit Delaware, then New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Snow is expected in West Virginia. Winds and rain are expected as far west as Ohio. Additional satellite images are available at NOAA. Note that the Frankenstein monster was created by man.

While some are calling this the storm of the century, I see it, like Hurricane Irene of 2011, discussed here, and Katrina and Rita a few years ago, as a harbinger of things to come.

Several natural phenomena are combining with several man-made factors to interact in ways that will make this a very significant storm, and one that we expect to see repeated every few years. ABC News, National Hurricane Center, NOAA, other news and information media are providing up-to-date coverage. Popular Logistics provides analysis.

Natural Phenomena:

Hurricane Sandy is 900 miles wide – bigger than Irene.
It will interact with a cold front coming from Canada that will form a Nor’ Easter.
It will also interact with the Jet Stream, that will pull it northward, then refocus it back south-westerly arc toward New York City, Long Island, and New Jersey.
The full moon – which triggers higher tides – will trigger a storm surge.

Man made factors that will exacerbate the storm’s damage:

Atmospheric CO2 and water vapor – the concentration of carbon dioxide and water vapor is higher today due to burning fossil fuels. This means the atmosphere can hold more heat, and is holding more water, the oceans are warmer; thus storms will be bigger and more severe.
Coastal development – sand dunes gone from Long Island make us more vulnerable to storm surges and flooding
Crumbling infrastructure gives us a diminished ability to weather the storm.
Lack of emergency preparedness gives us a diminished ability to weather the storm.
Satellites, in need of repair, give us a diminished ability to monitor the storm.
Nuclear Power plants in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will need to be monitored. Some will be shut down, as they were last year during Hurricane Irene, leading to power outages. See “Nuclear Power, Natural Disasters, and Security.”This gives us diminished ability to weather the storm, and forces us to deploy resources to safeguard infrastructure.

In August of 2011 the Millstone 2 & 3 plants in Connecticut and the Brunswick 1 & 2 plants in North Carolina were operated at reduced capacity during and after Hurricane Irene, while the Oyster Creek plant in New Jersey, and the North Anna 1 & 2 plants in Virginia, were offline. The North Anna plants were shut down before the hurricane due to the earthquake. I expect Hurricane Sandy will effect most of those plants, and also the Calvert Creek plant in Maryland, Hope Creek, and Salem in Jersey, Indian Point in New York, and Vermont Yankee, in Vermont.

Solar power, wind, and wave power won’t work during a hurricane, but don’t need emergency crew on hand to make sure cooling systems are operational. And geothermal will function.

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As an analyst with Popular Logistics, I am available for research and analysis on a per project or a per diem basis. I can be reached at ‘L Furman 97” @ G Mail . com and US 732 . 580 . 0024.