Tag Archives: IBM

Announcing the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology

Hot on the heels of the December 21, 2012 launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Sustainable Energy, here, up 22.36%, I am announcing the launch of the Popular Logistics Virtual Portfolio in Information Technology. Roughly $1.0 million in Apple, Google, HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.(Their investor relations pages are Apple, Google, HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle.)

Tech Virtual Portfolio
Item	Stock	Price	Shares	Total
1	Apple	$446	2,242	$1,000,000
2	Google	$795	1,258	$1,000,000
3	HP	$17	59,559	$1,000,000
4	IBM	$198	5,051	$1,000,000
5	Intel	$20	50,000	$1,000,000
6	Microsoft	$27	37,037	$1,000,000
7	Oracle	$24	41,667	$1,000,000
	total			$7,000,000
Table 1. Acquisitions, Start of Business, 2/22/13

Generally speaking, here’s what I expect:

Apple, IBM: I expect to significantly outperform the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
Google: I expect to perform in line with the Dow Jones and S&P.
HP: An investment in HP is speculative. Whitman may turn the company around. The stock might wildly outperform the Dow & the S&P. As Gerstner might say, however, it’s hard to teach an elephant to dance. The stock may plummet.
Intel, Oracle, I don’t know enough to have an expectation.
Microsoft may become a leading indicator of the economy. Thus, if the S&P does well, Microsoft may do better.

These are in table 2, below

Continue reading →

Apple at $665 per share – or $705 – or $1077

Apple, if it can be compared to Google, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle, should be priced at 665 per share. This analysis is simply based on Stock Price, Earnings per Share (EPS) and the Price Earnings ratio. or P/E. The average P/E of these companies is 15.08. If Apple’s stock was 15.08 times earnings, it would be 665. If you take Apple out of the mix, the average P/E becomes 16.01. At 16.01 times earnings, Apple’s stock price would be 705. And if priced like Google, $1077. Continue reading →

2012 Revisited

In “The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012, here, I wrote:

“Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.” (Mostly Correct, except Apple did better than I expected.)
“The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.” (Wrong)
There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die. (The number of accidents was underestimate. Their magnitude was overestimated – however … )
There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. (Wrong)
Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%. (Wrong on WalMart, right on Credit Unions, altho the numbers were off.)
The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase. (Right. Very Right!)
The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall. (Wrong – but there’s still time.)
Foreclosures will continue in the United States. (sadly, true, but not as bad as it could have been – thanks to Obama)
Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.” (Right on Obama and the American voter. Wrong on Arpaio)
The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. (Right, tho I would have like to have been wrong on this one.)

Here are the details. Continue reading →

HP: What Next After Autonomy?

The adult in the cartoon is not Carly Fiorina, Mark Hurd, Leo Apotheker formerly of HP, or John Lynch, formerly of HP & Autonomy. While the three ex-CEOs were paid a total of $80 Million after being fired (here), they did NOT create shareholder value. Under their guidance, the company lost 77.92% of its peak value; the shareholders lost $81.54 Billion between Dec. 31, 1999 (here) and the close of trading, Nov. 23, 2012.

While Autonomy’s $10 Billion valuation may have been John Lynch’s fraud – the FBI and it’s counterparts in London are investigating (here) – HP’s acquisition of Autonomy was Leo Apotheker’s error, and has become Meg Whitman’s problem. I’m sure that if Whitman is unsuccessful, or the Board fires her before she can be successful, she will be well taken care of, as were Fiorina, Hurd, and Apotheker. Meanwhile Bill Hewlett & Dave Packard – who created value for the shareholders and other stakeholders – must be turning over in their graves.

Continue reading →

Facebook IPO: The Sound of Bubbles Popping

Soap Bubble, by Irfan Mirza

Facebook went public on Friday, May 18, 2012. Trading for FB opened at $42.025 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of $72.76 Billion. However, Facebook closed it’s first day as a publicly traded stock down 9.3% at $38.105 per share. On it’s second day, Monday, May 21, it opened at $36.53 per share and closed at $34.03 per share, dropping another 6.8%, and 19% from the opening price. It’s sliding is raising eyebrows in the financial media (Business Week, Chicago Tribune, Reuters).

Bubble Pop, by Richard Heeks

But the question may be less “Why is Facebook’s stock price dropping?” or “Who’s to blame?” than “What should be it’s price?“

GMO‘s Jeremy Grantham talks about “Reversion to the Mean.” The mean, however, for a stock with 2 days of history is not statistically meaningful. So I compared it to Apple, Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, pulling data off of the Internet at Finance.Google.Com after the close of trading on Monday, May 21, 2012.

(Image Links: Soap Bubble & Bubble Pop)

Continue reading →

Apple, Google, IBM – the way forward

Apple HQ, Cupertino, California

Back in 1965, IBM CEO Thomas J. Watson, Jr, wrote, in IBM’s Basic Beliefs & Principles,

“We accept our responsibilities as a corporate citizen in community, national, and world affairs; we serve our interests best when we serve the public interest…. We want to be at the forefront of those companies which are working to make the world a better place.”

Today, IBM says “Sustainability is no longer an option. Sustainability is an imperative.” IBM is focused on making data centers and supply chains more efficient, and providing their customers with tools to become less unsustainable (IBM green blog). The European Commission awarded IBM for energy efficiency at 27 data centers (IBM Press Release).

However, it looks to me that Google and Apple are one or two steps ahead of IBM. Google has invested $915 Million in solar arrays, which should be 1.0 to 1.5 MW. Apple is putting a 5MW solar array on the roof of it’s headquarters in Cupertino, pictured above, and described here on Treehugger and here on 9to5mac. Apple is also using solar and biofuel to power it’s new data center in South Carolina (article in Renewable Energy World). Essentially:

A 100-acre, 20 megawatt (MW) solar array, supplying 42 million kWh of energy each year.
A 5 MW biogas system to come online later this year, providing another 40 million kWh of 24×7 baseload renewable energy annually. Apple claims this will be the largest non-utility-owned fuel cell installation in the US.
Combined, that’s 82 million kWh/year of onsite renewable energy generation at the facility.

For more details, see the 2012 Apple Facilities Report.

Apple’s building may be a derivative design of the Widex headquarters, in Allerød, Denmark, described on Widex home page, here. The Widex building is a ring that surrounds a large atrium courtyard to be planted with grass, flowers and trees and is according to Widex,”designed to be both pleasant to look at and be in…. and environmentally friendly

Heat for the building will be supplied by a geothermal system, where groundwater is used like a heat reservoir; excess heat in summer can be stored and used when needed during winter. Our ambition is to reduce energy consumption by 75 percent compared to traditional technology.

Apple, Google, and IBM report high profits. Their stock prices are also high, perhaps demonstrating the correlation between doing well and doing good.

The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012

Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

Here are the details … Continue reading →

The Crash of 2011

Tweet I thought the market would crash in the wake of the Earthquake / Tsunami / Nuclear Meltdowns at Fukushima. It didn’t. However, something much less serious may be bringing the market – and the economy – to it’s knees. Politics. The Voice of America reported here that Standard & Poors downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+. Click here for the S&P’s Special Report and here for the full report.

S&P’s analysts wrote:

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.

John Boehner It is clear that the emphasis on cutting government spending, eliminating government jobs, eliminating benefits to unemployed citizens, rather than raising revenues and developing infrastructure is not in the long term or short term interests of the United States. As the 512 point drop in the Dow Jones Average, and the downgrade of US debt indicate, Republicans and the Tea Party should be careful for what they wish for – they just might get it.

In the discussions over the debt ceiling, John Boehner said something to the effect that if a family or a business is borrowing too much it simply must tighten it’s belt. Continue reading →