Deepwater Drilling Offshore of the US yields oil at $57 per barrel (see note 1) and, according to Forbes, the Break-Even price is $65 per barrel. It makes no sense to drill deepwater wells offshore of the US with WTI crude oil under $35 per barrel And given that the costs to produce a barrel of oil in the Middle East, range from $8.50 in Kuwait to $9.90 in Saudi Arabia, to $12.60 in Iran WE CAN’T COMPETE!
But we shouldn’t bother. We should move to a post fossil fuel economy.
In “The World Will Not End and Other Predictions for 2012,” I developed a set of predictions for 2012, the accuracy of which were described by me in 2012 Revisited. Here are my predictions for 2013. As noted last year, I am extrapolating from patterns that I see – also known as reading tea leaves.
For an overview of the details see below.
The America that inspires people all over the world is the America of Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life” and Ben Afleck’s “Argo.” It is a place where people can rise from humble origins to run companies or become President. It is the country of Carnegie, Ford, and Edison, of Warren Buffet, Bill Hewlett, Dave Packard, Steve Jobs, and Meg Whitman and the country of Lincoln, the Roosevelts, the Kennedys, Reagan, Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. These men and women inspired and continue to inspire people here in the United States and also in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, including Israelis, Palestinians, Arabs and Persians. They inspire people who want freedom and opportunity, a better life for themselves and their children.
This is “American Exceptionalism.” It is not that Americans are better, but that America is better.
And Israel, Palestine, and the Arab Spring …
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has implicitly admitted that Robert Levinson in in Iranian custody, while simultaneously evading personal responsibility by saying that he thought Mr. Levinson had been part of a prisoner exchange which had already been negotiated and concluded.
Here’s an excerpt from CBS’s coverage:
[P]ressed by Charlie Rose in an interview for “CBS This Morning,” Ahmadinejad did not deny Iran still has Levinson in its custody, and he hinted that there had been talks about a prisoner exchange. “I remember that last year Iranian and American intelligence groups had a meeting, but I haven’t followed up on it,” said the Iranian president. “I thought they’d come to some kind of an agreement.”
John Miller [CBS News senior correspondent a former FBI assistant director] says that, “tacit admission that he’s in their custody and that there have been talks,” in and of itself, “is a big step.” “I think that’s going to give a ray of hope to the family, too,” adds Miller.
From Mahmoud Ahmadinejad drops clue about Robert Levinson, ex-FBI agent who vanished 5 years ago in Iran – CBS News. There’s a link to video and more coverage on that page.
For more background, here’s are additional links on ABC News (From 12/9/11) Facebook, and Wikipedia.
While the editors of Popular Logistics understand that it is important to prepare for emergencies – and carry flashlights, per the 911 Commission, we also understand that it is important to avoid emergencies.
We also note that President Theodor Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.”
ABC News reports the statements made by the candidates for President in regards to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most agree that Iran wants nuclear power and nuclear weapons.
ABC, Quoting Candidate Barack Obama, from 2008 as saying, “In confronting these threats, I will not take the military option off the table. But our first measure must be sustained, direct and aggressive diplomacy…. I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel.” The article did not mention the Stuxnet attack on the Iranian Nuclear program, which has been reported to have slowed the development of nuclear technology in Iran. While the origin of the computer virus is unknown, it is reported to be American or American and Israeli.
Newt Gingrich supports regime change in Iran, and using military action if necessary “as a last recourse.” (ABC News).
Jon Huntsman: “Realistically, you’ve got to have all options on the table. You’ve got to be prepared to use all elements of national power.” (ABC News)
Ron Paul: “Why do we have to bomb so many countries? Why are we [having] 900 bases in 130 countries and we’re totally bankrupt? . . . We need a strong national defense . . . and we need to only go to war with a declaration of war.” Paul has called sanctions against Iran an “act of war” that could damage the global economy by impeding the flow of oil. “I think they solution is to do a lot less a lot sooner, and mind our own business, and we wouldn’t have this threat of another war.” (ABC News)
Mitt Romney: ‘Ultimately, regime change is what’s going to be necessary,” says Romney, who believes both “covert and overt” actions should be used to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He said the U.S. should develop military plans, though he hoped they were never put into effect. “But the Iranians will understand that we have prepared credible military options, that they’ll know there is a consequence of becoming nuclear.” (ABC News)
Rick Santorum: “‘Yes, that’s the plan,’ said Santorum, when asked if he would order air strikes on Iran if they were going to obtain nuclear weapons. The conservative dark horse … is the most bellicose of the GOP contenders when it comes to Iran. In an interview with Glenn Beck, he said Iran’s regime was worse than al Qaeda, and that an attack on Iran would prevent war.” (ABC News).
As noted, President Theodore Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.” Huntsman and Obama are speaking softly. Paul is whining. Gingrich, Romney and Santorum are waving their sticks. Santorum went as far as to say “an attack would prevent war.” That is “War prevents war.”
Iran, like Syria, is unstable. The people want food and a healthier economy. They also want change. Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum are saying what the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want to hear. Their bellicose statements unify the people behind the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad. But rescuing fishermen – this is the last thing the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want us to do. It shows that they cannot protect Iranians against Somali pirates. It unifies the people of Iran against the government of Iran. And it unifies the people of Iran behind the United States.
It also begs the question – “Why is piracy so common in Somalia?”
Another example of the risk of petroleum supply interruption: the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. While it’s hard to imagine that United States military forces wouldn’t prevail in a conflict with Iran, that confrontation might easily escalate.
Excerpted from Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz by Clifford Krauss at NYTimes.com:
HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.
An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according tomost Middle East political experts.
United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.
Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analyst
What does this mean? We think it’s most important in understanding how fragile our dependence on oil is – particularly because protecting requires us to ask our military personnel to put themselves in harm’s way. Petroleum dependence – energy policy – shouldn’t be a casus belli. We have other choices – conservation and renewable energy sources. If we reduce our dependence on oil, we win in many ways: reducing risk to our armed forces; cheaper energy, and better environmental and health outcomes.
Reducing the power of the current Iranian ruling elite is a bonus.
Norouzi, Getty Images
While Iran is threatening to block the Straits of Hormuz, and various agents are calling for military actions, the crew of an American destroyer patrolling the North Arabian Sea rescued 13 Iranian fishermen captured by Somali pirates in November, 2011. U.S. Navy Rescues Iranians Held by Pirates, 1/6/12, Robert Mackey and J. David Goodman. The article quotes one of the rescued fishermen, Fazel Ur Rehman, 28, “It is like you were sent by God. Every night we prayed for God to rescue us. And now you are here.”
Asian Customers of Iran Look for Other Oil Sources, 1/7/12, Keith Bradsher and Clifford Krauss,
In Bold Step, Europe Nears Embargo on Iran Oil, 1/5/12, Steven Erlander,
Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier, 1/4/12, J. David Goodman,
Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz, 1/5/12, Clifford Krauss,
Noise Level Rises Over Iran Threat to Close Strait of Hormuz, 12/29/11, Rick Gladstone,
Oil Prices Predicted to Remain Above $100 a Barrel Next Year, 12/29/11, Diane Cardwell and Rick Gladstone, Lawrence J. Furman, at Popular Logistics, forecast, “The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.”
Iran Calls Threat of Sacntions from European Union ‘Economic War’, 12/29/11, J. David Goodman,
Iran Threatens to Block Oil in Reply to Sanctions, 12/28/11, David E. Sanger and Anne Lowrey,
Iran Admits Sanctions are Inflicting Damage, 12/20/11, Rick Gladstone,
Given the implications of petroleum shortages and/or price spikes, current tensions with Iran are a serious matter, entirely aside from one’s opinions about Iranian government’s behavior. We note that in preparing a piece about the possibility of Iran attempting to limit world petroleum supplies, a search of the The Times for “+Iran +Oil” yields no less than ten pieces of reporting. We see our role, at Popular Logistics, as framing and interpreting what is going on. We strive to be primary sources of understanding while second-hand sources of news, especially in foreign theaters such as the Middle East, Europe and Asia. We rely on The New York Times, WNYC (our local NPR affiliate), the World Factbook of the CIA, and other agencies of the United States Government, the WorldWatch Institute and other Primary sources of news and information. And so, we pay our taxes, because, as Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said, “Taxes are the price we pay for civilization,” and (to pat ourselves on the back) we subscribe to the New York Times and WNYC.
Gunmen riding motorcycles fatally shot an Iranian scientist in front of his house in Tehran on Saturday, Iranian news agencies reported. It appeared to be the latest in a series of attacks that Iranian authorities have called an assassination campaign directed by Israeli, American and British intelligence agencies against the country’s nuclear program.
The scientist, Darioush Rezai-Nejad, 35, died, and his wife was wounded and taken to a hospital, the news reports said. They also gave varying descriptions of his expertise, with some describing him as an electronics specialist who worked with Iran’s Defense Ministry. It was uncertain what role, if any, he played in Iran’s nuclear program, which American experts believe is aimed at developing a weapons capacity. Iran denies that it is trying to build a nuclear bomb.
According to the semi-official ISNA news agency, Mr. Rezaeinejad was a doctoral student at Khajeh Nasroldeen Toosi University.
ISNA quoted Safarali Baratloo, political-security deputy for the Tehran’s governor’s office, as saying that whether Mr. Rezai-Nejad “is a nuclear scientist is currently under review and we are not certain.” In earlier reports, several Iranian news outlets identified him as being involved in Iran’s nuclear program but later hedged or backed away from that identification.
The shooting came amid Western concerns that Iran may be accelerating its production of nuclear materials to get closer to being able to make a weapon. The expanded effort is overseen by Fereydoon Abbasi, the nuclear physicist who runs the country’s Atomic Energy Organization.
On Nov. 29 Dr. Abbasi was driving to work when a motorcyclist approached and attached an explosive device to the door of his car. The physicist rushed away, pulling his wife with him, and they escaped with minor injuries.
But on the same day, Majid Shahriari, a colleague on the faculty of Tehran’s Shahid Beheshti University, was killed in a similar attack, and his wife and driver were injured. Iranian authorities said Professor Shahriari had managed a major nuclear project.
via Iranian Scientist Rezai-Nejad Gunned Down at Home – NYTimes.com.
From A Time To Betray, a blog written by an Iranian, Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym), an Iranian now living in the United States who was for a time a CIA contract agent.
The US State Department on Tuesday reiterated its call for Iran to help locate Robert Levinson, a former FBI agent who went missing on an island in the Gulf three years ago.
“Mr. Levinson will remain a priority for the United States until he is reunited with his family,” State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said, reading a statement on the anniversary of his disappearance.
When President Obama ordered the release of five Quds force commanders captured by U.S. armed forces in Irbil, Iraq in 2007 despite the fact that the very commanders and their organization had successfully orchestrated the killing of hundreds of our soldiers in Iraq, he believed that by showing good faith to the terrorists ruling Iran, he will become the first U.S. President to break the ice in U.S.-Iran relations. However President Obama failed to realize that several U.S. Presidents before him had tried in vain to appease the Iranian rulers only to find out their own failure. Iran answered Obama’s good gestures by taking hostage three American hikers, now imprisoned in Iran. Can anyone remember the hostage takings in Beirut and the Iran-Contra affair or our politicians have a short memory span.
Terrorists and hostage takers are just that and when one succumbs to their demands, they will simply continue with the same behavior. Isn’t it time to confront such thugs so that the future hostage takers would know what will be in store for them if they continued with such behavior?
Robert Levinson went missing in Iranian island of Kish in 2007. The Iranian government has denied any knowledge as to his existence!
When will we learn to deal differently with hostage takers? on A Time To Betray.
As some readers of Popular Logistics
are aware, Bob Levinson is a dear friend of mine, and is sorely missed. I want him back with his family in good health immediately. He also owes me at least one dinner, and I intend to collect. But I make no pretense of detachment or neutrality; Mr. Kahlili’s argument may or may not describe the best approach, but certainly deserves some thought.
Joby Warrick and Glenn Kessler report in The Washington Post that Iran is experiencing setbacks in its uranium enrichment efforts.Excerpt follows from Technical setbacks cause Iran to falter in push to enrich uranium, report says:
Iran is experiencing surprising setbacks in its efforts to enrich uranium, according to new assessments that suggest that equipment failures and other difficulties could undermine that nation’s plans for dramatically scaling up its nuclear program.
Former U.S. officials and independent nuclear experts say continued technical problems could also delay — though probably not halt — Iran’s march toward achieving nuclear-weapons capability, giving the United States and its allies more time to press for a diplomatic solution. In recent months, Israeli officials have been less vocal in their demands that Western nations curtail Iran’s nuclear program.
Indications of Iran’s diminished capacity to enrich uranium arise just as the Obama administration begins to take sterner action to compel Iran to abandon enrichment. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department announced new U.S. sanctions against companies it says are affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, a key player in the country’s nuclear and missile programs.
….
Beneath this rhetoric, U.N. reports over the last year have shown a drop in production at Iran’s main uranium enrichment plant, near the city of Natanz. Now a new assessment, based on three years of internal data from U.N. nuclear inspections, suggests that Iran’s mechanical woes are deeper than previously known. At least through the end of 2009, the Natanz plant appears to have performed so poorly that sabotage cannot be ruled out as an explanation, according to a draft study by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). A copy of the report was provided to The Washington Post.
The ISIS study showed that more than half of the Natanz plant’s 8,700 uranium-enriching machines, called centrifuges, were idle at the end of last year and that the number of working machines had steadily dropped — from 5,000 in May to just over 3,900 in November. Moreover, output from the nominally functioning machines was about half of what was expected, said the report, drawing from data gathered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
A separate, forthcoming analysis by the Federation of American Scientists also describes Iran’s flagging performance and suggests that continued failures may increase Iran’s appetite for a deal with the West. Ivan Oelrich, vice president of the federation’s Strategic Security Program, said Iranian leaders appear to have raced into large-scale uranium production for political reasons.
“They are really struggling to reproduce what is literally half-century-old European technology and doing a really bad job of it,” Oelrich said.
The findings are in line with assessments by numerous former U.S. and European officials and weapons analysts who say that Iran’s centrifuges appear to be breaking down at a faster rate than expected, even after factoring in the notoriously unreliable, 1970s-vintage model the Iranians are using. According to several of the officials, the problems have prompted new thinking about the urgency of the Iranian nuclear threat, although the country has demonstrated a growing technical prowess, such as its expanding missile program.
“Whether Iran has deliberately slowed down or been forced to, either way that stretches out the time,” said Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a nonpartisan think tank.
But analysts also warned that Iran remains capable of making enough enriched uranium for a small arsenal of nuclear weapons, if it decides to do so. Iran has announced plans to build 10 new uranium plants, and on Monday the government said it would begin increasing the enrichment level of some of its uranium, from a current maximum of 3.5 percent to 20 percent. Enrichment of 90 percent is considered weapons-grade.
“Whenever we encounter blocks in our services we try to resolve them as quickly as possible because we strongly believe that people everywhere should have the ability to communicate freely online,” Google said in its statement about Iran. “Sadly, sometimes it is not within our control.”
According to Cecilia Kang of the Washington Post’s Tech Blog, Ryan Flinn of Bloomberg in Business Week, and in the LA Times, Google has reported that e-mail traffic is down in Iran, after an Iranian government announcement that it would suspend Google and force citizens to use a government e-mail service.
Google said it has seen a sharp drop in traffic among Iranian users of Gmail, and confirmed that users there say they are having trouble accessing their e-mail accounts.
The company’s statement comes after a report by Christopher Rhoads, Chip Cummins, and Jessica Vascellaro in The Wall Street Journal that the Iranian government said it put a “permanent suspension of Google’s email services.”
The nation’s telecommunications agency said that instead, it would soon roll out its own e-mail service for Iranian citizens, accoridng to the Journal. Iranian leaders have issued stern warnings to citizens against participating in protests Thursday, the day marking the establishment of the Islamic Republic there.
Google drew international attention earlier this year when it announced that it may withdraw from China because of that nation’s censorship practices. The State Department has supported the company’s move and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton included the firm’s experiences in China among the reasons to push for Internet freedom as part of the U.S. government’s diplomatic agenda.
Google says email traffic down in Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Laura Rozen reports on Politico.com:
In what was being reported as a potentially significant shift, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Iranian State Television today that Iran is ready to send its uranium abroad.
“We have no problem sending our enriched uranium abroad,” Ahmadinejad told state television, according to Reuters.
“We say: we will give you our 3.5 percent enriched uranium and will get the fuel. It may take 4 to 5 months until we get the fuel,” he said. “If we send our enriched uranium abroad and then they do not give us the 20 percent enriched fuel for our reactor, we are capable of producing it inside Iran.”
The U.S. reacted cautiously to the interview, saying it was willing to listen if Iran has genuinely changed its position on the fuel swap deal, while indicating it was continuing preparations with key allies on sanctions for further pressuring Iran. Iran has previously publicly said it was willing to send its low enriched uranium abroad, but it had balked at sending it out all in one batch, as a proposal worked out by the UN atomic energy agency last fall had stipulated. U.S. officials said it remained to be seen if Iran had changed its position on that.
Google announced that it believes that China is responsible for cyber attacks on Google China. Google is now unwilling to censor search results in China (The Guardian).
Google China. by Phillipe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, about to begin a tour of Asia, said “We have been briefed by Google on these allegations, which raise very serious concerns and questions. We look to the Chinese government for an explanation.” (The Guardian / NY Times).On their blog (here), in a post entitled “A New Approach to China” Google said:
“In mid-December, we detected a highly sophisticated and targeted attack on our corporate infrastructure originating from China that resulted in the theft of intellectual property from Google.” Continue reading
U.S. steps up pressure on Iran over missing ex-FBI agent, by Lesley Clark of the McClatchy Newspapers:
WASHINGTON — The White House and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton upped the pressure Thursday on Iran to divulge any information it has about Robert Levinson, a retired FBI agent who went missing from a Persian Gulf island in March 2007.
The statement from the White House came as the Coral Springs, Fla., man’s family marked the 1,000th day of his disappearance with meetings at the State Department and the FBI. National Security Adviser James Jones also met with the family “to reassure them that Bob’s case remains a priority for the United States,” the White House said.
The FBI and the State Department called for cooperation, with the FBI — the lead agency that investigates the disappearances of Americans overseas — saying that it has “not received any information from Iranian authorities to date.”
Clinton echoed Gibbs’ remarks and said that although Iranian authorities had promised the family that they’d share information about the investigation, “that promise has yet to be fulfilled.”
Further:
Family of missing former FBI agent marks 1,000th day of his disappearance
U.S. calls on Iran to help find missing Broward man
We feign no neutrality in this matter: the Administration’s efforts are appreciated, and Bob Levinson is my dear friend, generous colleague, mentor, and as good a person as I have ever known. We urge the Administration to continue to pursue the matter, and Iranian government to do the right thing, and take whatever steps are necessary to locate him and return him to his family and friends.
Via WikiNews:Iran and Britain expel diplomats after Iranian presidential election.
We note that while attacks from President Obama’s political right have urged him to be more aggressive, in the UK David Cameron has reminded the P.M. that the “Iranian elections [are] an internal Iranian conflict, between Iranians and other Iranians.” If this ends with a full end of diplomatic relations, what impact will this have for formal and informal communications and intelligence-gathering between Iran and the west? Not good, we suspect.
The expulsions come in the wake of the recent Iranian presidential election, and hostility directed by Iran to the United Kingdom by Iranian leaders and official news services, including statements made by Supreme Leader of IranAli Khamenei
calling the British government the “most evil” of foreign governments.
Commenting upon the expulsion as it was announced, Leader of the Opposition in the British House of Commons, David Cameron , urged people to remember that this was not a conflict between Iran and the United Kingdom, but was an internal Iranian conflict, between Iranians and other Iranians.
