Tag Archives: Keynes

Can Anyone Really Create Jobs? Yes We Can!

FDR Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet Writing in the NY Times, Adam Davidson of Planet Money, asks “Can Politicians Really Create Jobs? Davidson says “No.”

But with all due respect to Mr. Davidson, as Barack – The Candidate – Obama said, “Yes, We Can!”

And yes, Presidential candidates can create jobs – presidential campaigns are staffed by people. So obviously, the President can create jobs. Anyone can. All it takes is a need for something to get done. Whether you do it yourself or you pay someone else to do it, it’s a job. So the real question for the President, the Presidential Candidates, our elected Representatives in Washington and in State and Local Government, and for us ourselves, is not “Can we create jobs?” The real question is “How do we create 10 or 15 million good new jobs?

Davidson talks about Keynes and the Chicagoans.

Chicagoans believe that economies can only truly recover on their own and that policy interventions only slow the recovery. It’s a puzzle of modern politics that Republicans have had electoral success with a policy that fundamentally asserts there is nothing the government can do to create jobs any time soon…. Romney, Perry, Herman Cain and the rest won’t come out and say, “If elected, I will tell you to wait this thing out.”

This is what Herbert Hoover said and why Franklin Delano Roosevelt won the election in 1932.

Instead, Republican candidates fill their jobs plans with Chicagoan ideas that have nothing to do with the current crisis, like permanent cuts in taxes and regulation. These policies may (or may not) make the economy healthier in 5 years or 10, but the immediate impact would require firing a large number of America’s roughly 23 million government workers.

What John Maynard Keynes said is less that “government can create jobs” but is more along the lines of

“in economic times such as these, when there is high unemployment because business will not hire people to create inventory that is likely to remain unsold, government is the only entity that has both the means and the will to create jobs.”

Less “government can” and more “Government Must!

What is our government, after all? Lincoln said it best:

– “Government of the people, by the people and for the people.

And there is much work to be done. We need to rebuild our infrastructure. This includes our crumbling current infrastructure of schools, roads, mass transit, etc. This will create jobs. We also know that domestic energy production peaked in 1971. International oil production seems to be peaking now, altho given the state of the world economy, and the state of infrastructure in Iran, Iraq, and Libya, the international peak may be a few years off. However, we should build a sustainable energy infrastructure. We will need it eventually. It is good for the environment, it will strengthen our economy and our state of national security. But rather than by using a simple program to provide loan guarantees to various corporations; the government should mandate that all government buildings should be well insulated, efficient, heated and cooled with geothermal, and powered with a mix of solar, wind, local hydro, biofuel (from waste, sewage, manure, etc., not food crops).

Just as police and courts exist to protect people from those who would point a gun at their heads and say “Your money or your life,” enforcement agencies must protect people from those who would discard toxic substances into the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat, and the ground from which we farm.  We need to regulate banks and other financial firms. This too will create jobs. We need to provide health care to all our citizens, not just 5 out of 6, or 265 million out of 307 million, leaving 1 out of 6, or 45 out of 307 million without access to health care.

Davidson is wrong about one other thing. It’s not either go into debt to create jobs or fire people to cut taxes. Government has two sources of revenue: debt and taxes. It seems fair to me that a progressive tax policy, can be used to generate the revenues needed to pay for the jobs society needs to be done.  Wealth, after all, is not created in a vacuum. Wealth is created by people buying things that other people are selling. People want to buy Apple computers, music players, cell phones.  The people who design and build them get wealthy. The wealthy benefit by living in society; therefore demanding that all, including the wealthy, pay a fair share, as illustrated here, in my post on Progressive Tax Policy is fair, balanced, reasonable, and smart.

  • Over $100 Million, 57.5%. Plus 5.0% Social Security Insurance & Medicare.
  • Between $10 Million and $100 Million: 52.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $5 Million and $10 Million: 42.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $1 Million and $5 Million: 32.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $100,000 and $1 Million: 22.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Below $100,000: 17.5%. Plus 4.0% SSI & M.
  • Royalty income should be taxed at the same rates as wages and salary.
  • Income in the form of unsold stock options is tax-deferred and taxed when sold.
  • Inheritances of $1.0 million and under from a grandparent, parent, partner, or child should not be taxed. Inheritances from distant relatives, or that portion above $1.0 million should be taxed as indicated above.

So can anyone create jobs? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes, We Can!’

Saving the Economy, Numero Uno

Whitehall Street terminal of the Staten Island FerryFollow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet  “The United States,” according to Robert Barro, who teaches economics at Harvard and is a “fellow” at the Hoover Institution, “is in the third year of a grand experiment by the Obama administration.” This is inaccurate. Obama is the President, but the US Constitution provides a framework in which power is divided into three branches of the Federal government, and the power of the each of the branches is checked and balanced by the others, and “all power not expressly granted to the federal government is held by the states and the citizens. It would be more accurate to say that the United States is in the third year of a grand experiment by the Obama administration, the Congress, the Judiciary, the Republican Party, various special interests, and the citizens.

Barro published this flawed analysis in “How to Really Save the Economy, “an op-ed in the New York Times, published Sept. 10, 2011.

How is the experiment going?” Barro asks rhetorically. “Not well,” he answers.

How could it? On January 16, 2009, a week before the Inauguration, Rush Limbaugh, one of the leaders of the right wing of the United States said, “I hope Obama fails.” (The text is on Limbaugh’s site. An audio is on You Tube.) As I wrote, on Popular Logistics, here, a hope that the President fails is hope that the United States fails.

As was reported, here, in the Washington Post on August 6, 2011, and here on Popular Logistics, on August 8, 2011, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and the “Young Guns,” their Republican comrades in the House of Representatives, PLANNED as far back as January, 2009 to use the debt ceiling to create a political crisis. The Republicans have been trying to actualize Mr. Limbaugh’s hopes.

Barro is a professor of neoclassical economics, and a fellow of the Hoover Institution. What he doesn’t understand, and what President Herbert Hoover didn’t understand, is that under economic conditions such as we see today, while businesses and government are able to create jobs, business owners are risk averse, and won’t risk capital.  The government MUST create jobs, because businesses won’t.  Everyone who has a job and a 10 year old car, and is hesitant with regards to buying a new car, understands this.  John Maynard Keynes understood this. Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood this.  Herbert Hoover didn’t – which is why he lost to Mr. Roosevelt in 1932, and why, 36 years later, President Nixon said “We are all Keynesians now.”  (Note that Mr. Nixon has been called many things. However, “Liberal” is not one of them.)

So how do we really save the economy? See Part Deux.

One of the best kept secrets in New York City is the existence of a 40 kilowatt (KW) photovoltaic solar array on the Whitehall Street terminal of the Staten Island Ferry, pictured above, and first covered in Popular Logistics  in 2007, here.

There are 90,000 public schools in the United States. Suppose we were to install a 40 KW solar energy system on each of them. PV solar modules require very little maintenance over their 35 to 45 year life expectancy. At a cost of $5,000 per kilowatt of nameplate capacity, each of these 90,000 systems would cost $200,000. This 3.6 gigawatts of distributed daylight-only capacity would cost about $14.4 billion. The total costs would probably be less because PV Solar is subject to economic forces like Moore’s Law.

It seems to make sense to use taxpayer monies to finance these systems; taxpayer monies pay the electric bills for public schools and other public infrastructure.

Every public school in the country would have a power plant that generates power, during the day, with no fuel cost and no waste. And with no associated mining, processing, transportation, fuel costs and no waste management costs. At $5.00 per watt, or $5 billion per gigawatt, the capital costs are lower than the costs of new nuclear and significantly lower than the costs of coal with carbon sequestration, with none of the risks or hazards associated with the systems: no arsenic, mercury, lead, thorium, uranium, zinc, or carbon.

But what are the other implications? What would it give us? Again. see Part Deux

The Crash of 2011

US Capitol Follow LJF97 on Twitter  Tweet I thought the market would crash in the wake of the Earthquake / Tsunami / Nuclear Meltdowns at Fukushima. It didn’t. However, something much less serious may be bringing the market – and the economy – to it’s knees. Politics. The Voice of America reported here that Standard & Poors downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+. Click here for the S&P’s Special Report and here for the full report.

S&P’s analysts wrote:

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.

John BoehnerIt is clear that the emphasis on cutting government spending, eliminating government jobs, eliminating benefits to unemployed citizens, rather than raising revenues and developing infrastructure is not in the long term or short term interests of the United States. As the 512 point drop in the Dow Jones Average, and the downgrade of US debt indicate, Republicans and the Tea Party should be careful for what they wish for – they just might get it.

In the discussions over the debt ceiling, John Boehner said something to the effect that if a family or a business is borrowing too much it simply must tighten it’s belt. Continue reading

Do you Really Want a Balanced Budget Amendment?

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Copyright (C) 2011, Dale A. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.

The rainbow in the grey skies is magical and alluring. But take a look at history before suggesting that the USA should operate under the limitations of a balanced budget. A good place to start is by searching on milestone wars that made or saved this country. Try a search such as “US Revolutionary War debt,” “US Civil War debt,” or “US WW2 debt.”

Then try to decide if the US Constitution had such an amendment from day one would we:

  • Be a British colony?
  • Have slaves?
  • Speak German?

Would we have climbed out of the Great Depression without Roosevelt applying Keynes’ ideas on government projects?

The idea of sending America’s youth into battle without proper equipment and financial support is powerful motivator for me. I was in the Air Force during a budget battle and we literally could not fly our fighters because Congress did not approve enough money for fuel while they argued about the overdue budget! Thankfully that was peace time.

Copyright (C) 2011, Dale A. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.

Let’s take a look at the financial meltdowns this country has encountered and the effects that a Balanced Budget amendment would have had. Take a look at just two, the Great Depression and the 2008 meltdown. The government did not do all the right things to prevent or solve these problems. The solutions (i.e. the recovery) required combination of forces including government spending, Wall Street and Main Street.

Search on “US Depression debt” and read current events to see the impact of such economic events on the deficit. Thank you Uncle Sam for pitching in to take away the pain and suffering that literally millions of Americans faced during these crashes. I am glad you had a credit card to use to save us!

The metaphorical Atlas – is he the government or the taxpayers? Ours is an experiment in government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Is there a difference?

I probably should stop here but …
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Keynes, Reluctance to hire, & 21ST Century Energy

John Maynard Keynes, in black and white, because some ideas are.

in black and white, because some ideas are.

Tweet Follow LJF97 on Twitter   During the Great Depression the Classical Economists said “Unemployment is voluntary. Business owners will not voluntarily keep the means of production idle.”  While he had been a student of classical economics, John Maynard Keynes observed that the data didn’t fit the theory. And, he reasoned, if the observable data don’t fit the theory, the theory must be flawed.   “Business owners are risk averse,” he saw. “A employee needs to be productive, needs to make widgets. But if no one is buying widgets, then contrary to classical theory, factory owners will fire workers and keep capital idle rather than hire workers to create excess inventory. That’s just common sense.”

We see this today.

When unemployment was low, for example in the United States during the tech boom of the 1990’s, people acted on the premise that “There is so much work that we could hire and good people and train them.”  Today hiring managers seem to be acting on the premise that “There are so many people looking for work that they can wait for the perfect candidate.” Perfection being unattainable, jobs go unfilled. This is ok, in this context, because

  • “Budgets are tight.”
  • “The future is uncertain.”
  • “Money not spent on a new hire can be saved or used to pay down debt.”

Keynes also observed that the government is an employer that does not need to worry about going out of business. Building infrastructure is government employment that is investment for the future. These observations are as valid today as they were 80 years ago.

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Reagan's Beliefs, America's Folly

Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko

Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko in the film "Wall St."

Cynicism is fashionable.  But Gordon Gekko Was Wrong! Greed is Not Good!

Presidents, whether Republican or Democratic, always speak about Service, and when talking about wars,  they speak of Sacrifice, and The Ultimate Sacrifice.  Many approach their role from that perspective as well. George H. W. Bush, for example, approached politics from the traditional Conservative perspective of service. He also tried to spur volunteerism – the 1000 points of light.

But Reagan believed in Hoover’s fallacy, in the rugged individualist riding off into the sunset.  What he didn’t understand is that those iconoclastic rugged individualists ride horses descended from wild beasts tamed thousands of years ago. Their horseshoes are made by blacksmiths. Their guns are made in factories. Their boots, clothes, and other gear are made in other workshops or factories. These rugged individualist, giants as they might be, stand on the shoulders of others.

You don’t teach kids to swim by pushing them off a pier. They don’t  need flotation devices in 15 cm of water, either. What they need is someone to show them how, in waist deep water, and to say, “This is how it’s done. Why don’t you try? And don’t worry, I’ll make sure you don’t drown.”

The code of the Good Samaritan was simple: “Help when help is needed.”

Indeed, this is the common thread of 3000 years of human moral thinking, beginning with Abraham, Moses and Jesus in the West; Confucius and the Budda in the East. Continue reading

There’s Something About Mary – And Keynes

 

There's Something About Mary

Back in 1931, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“Assuming no important wars, and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or at least within sight of a solution, within a hundred years. This means that the economic problem is not – if we look into the future – the permanent problem of the human race.”  – John Maynard Keynes,  “Economic possibilities for our grand-children.’ In Essays in Persuasion, 1931.

Keynes wrote that wealth would grow because of compounded interest, and we would live off of the interest. This would fuel technical inventions and dramatically increase the standard of living for a stable, peace-loving world. He thought boredom would become the permanent problem of the human race.

We would become a world populated by dilettantes flitting from party to party; a world of people like Prince Charles and Paris Hilton, although most, presumably, would not be famous and very few could become king. While some would work a few hours per week, most would have a life of leisure. People would live like the physician played by Cameron Diaz in the 1998 film “There’s Something About Mary.” They would work more on “lifestyle” issues like their golf swing than their profession.

Four factors, Keynes wrote, would effect this transition:

  1. Power to control population,
  2. Determination to avoid wars and civil dissentions,
  3. Entrust to science that which is the domain of science,
  4. Compound interest.

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