Tag Archives: Macondo

Deepwater Horizon may cost BP $53.8 Billion – 43.1% of it’s current value

Deepwater Horizon Spill in 2010. Photo: Gerald Herbert, AP.

11 Crew were lost in the explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20, 2010. In addition, roughly 5.2 million barrels of oil poured into the Gulf of Mexico during the 87 days between April 20, 2010 when the explosion occurred and July 15, 2010 when the well was capped.

BP, found guilty of “Gross Negligence” and “Willful Misconduct” in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, (BBC, EcoWatch), has agreed to pay $18.7 Billion over the next 15 years (BP Press Release, Reuters) to settle various claims with the United States, the states of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, and others. This amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization.

Pursuant to the agreements, BP will pay $1.1 Billion per year over the next 15 years. While the $18.7 Billion amounts to 14.8% of BP’s current market capitalization of $125.59 Billion, the $1.1 Billion per year is only a loss of 0.88% of BP’s current market capitalization each year.

However,

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The Deepwater Horizon – The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

Oil Eating Bacteria

The good news is that newly discovered bacteria biodegrade oil in the oceans, and have been chowing down on the oil spilled from the Deepwater Horizon (Earth and Sky, NPR, PBS, SFGATE) and from oil seeps for millions of years.

While it’s unexpected and wonderful that bacteria are biodegrading the oil, is begs the question:

Do we want to fill the seas with oil and oil-eating bacteria or oceans of clean water, coral, oysters, fish, turtles, and dolphins?

And how quickly can they consume the 5.1 million barrels that gushed into the Gulf at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day for 85 days begining April 20, continuing thru May and June, and ending July 15, 2011?

I suspect it will take more than a few weeks, months, or years.

And do those bacteria break down dispersants?

John Ehrenfeld defines “Sustainability” as “Flourishing.” Because they are small and short-lived, shrimp can handle a higher level of toxics than say dolphins, turtles, etc. We will know the Gulf is clean when there are flourishing populations of dolphins, turtles, and larger and longer-lived fauna, and when they have lower concentrations of heavy metals and petrochemicals in their tissues. Continue reading →

Crisis (Mis) Management and the Gulf Oil Spill

What BP and the Government Could Have Done and Should Be Doing (updated 10/7/10)

The handling of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is a textbook study of how not to manage a crisis. The government and the Obama Administration seems to have understated the problem and ceded responsibility to BP, which seems to have acted to protect the Macondo oil field rather than the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast.

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It's Like a Bad High School Math Problem

Oil and Oceans Don't Mix. From Mining News.

“If oil gushes into the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day, and it takes 84 days to achieve a capability of “process” the spilled oil at a rate of 30,000 barrels per day, how long does it take to “process” the spilled oil?”

It takes two days to process each day’s gushed oil. So the answer is “2N + 188” where “N” equals the number of days oil gushes into the Gulf beyond the 84 days it took to achieve a processing capability of 30,000 barrels a day. If BP or the government stops the spill effective July 15, 2010, then they will process the oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico by January 20, 2011. If they are able to stop the flow of oil by August 1, 2010, then it will be Feb 19, 2011, before the spilled oil is “processed.” (Source of image)

And what exactly do they mean by “Process the spilled oil?”

People cleaning up the spilled oil.

Here’s another problem: “What is the toxicity for people cleaning up, or “processing,” the spilled oil? How much exposure can an average person tolerate? Is BP providing adequate safety gear and instructions? If people working to clean up the spill are reporting “light-headedness” and other symptoms, is that an indication that they have sustained a toxic exposure?” For more details, here is Melissa Taylor’s article, “Doctors call for help protecting Gulf oil spill workers.”

This Like a Bad High School Math Problem, is ninth in the series on the Deepwater Horizon / Macondo oil well disaster which began after Earth Day. Other posts include:

Deepwater Horizon – Bombs and Hurricanes

Satellite Photo of Hurricane Alex, courtesy NOAA

Hurricane Alex has temporarily halted cleanup efforts (Reuters). Yet the oil continues to gush unabated. Using the Government’s “Improved Estimate,” 2.8 to 4.8 million barrels have gushed into the Gulf in the MONTHS since the April 20 explosion which killed 11 workers. The explosion and spill have destroyed fisheries, tourism, and profoundly disrupted the ecology of the Gulf. Given that the spill of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day continues unabated the extent of the damage is unclear.

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In “Blow Up the Well to Save the Gulf,” in the NY Times, 6/22/10, Christopher Brownfield, a former nuclear submarine officer, wrote, “President Obama needs to create a new command structure that places responsibility for plugging the leak with the Navy, the only organization in the world that can muster the necessary team. Then the Navy needs to demolish the well. … At best, a conventional demolition would seal the leaking well completely and permanently without damaging the oil reservoir. At worst, oil might seep through a tortuous flow-path that would complicate long-term cleanup efforts. But given the size and makeup of the geological structures between the seabed and the reservoir, it’s virtually inconceivable that an explosive could blast a bigger hole than already exists and release even more oil.”

President Obama instituted a 6-month moritorium on deepwater drilling. Judge Martin L. C. Feldman of United States District Court, appointed by President Reagan in 1983, stopped the moritorium, writing that the Obama administration had failed to justify the need for such “a blanket … moratorium” on deep-water oil and gas drilling. “The blanket moratorium, with no parameters, seems to assume that because one rig failed and although no one yet fully knows why, all companies and rigs drilling new wells over 500 feet also universally present an imminent danger.” NY Times.

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With all due respect to Judge Feldman, the editors at Popular Logistics think that oil, coal, natural gas, mining, drilling, and transport, do present an imminent danger

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. Look at the evidence in the Gulf of Mexico, Ecuador, Nigeria, Prince Edward Sound, Montcoal, W. V, upriver of Kingston, Tenn, in the coal mines of China, and in the mercury levels in fish, shellfish, dolphins, and whales. The “Precautionary Principle” dictates that we must stop drilling and figure out to move off fossil fuels.

Notes

The “improved estimate of the Flow Rate Technical group, of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, announced by Energy Secretary Chu, Interior Secretary Salazar, and Director of the U. S. Geological Survey and Chair of the National Incident Command’s Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) Dr. Marcia McNutt on June 15, 2010, is consistent with a scientific analysis of the 70,000 barrels per day reported one month earlier by NPR May 14, 2010 and a “back-of-the-envelope” estimate of 25,000 to 50,000 barrels per day reported in this blog on May 15, 2010.
The “Precautionary Principle” implies a social responsibility to protect the public and the environment from harm. In general, the burden of proof that an action or policy is not harmful falls on those taking the action. This allows policy makers to take action in the face of limited scientific data.
The series began after Earth Day and includes Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, Magnitude, Part 1, One Month After, The Chernobyl of Fossil Fuel?, Magnitude, Part 2 and The Deepwater Horizon after the Macondo Well Spill. It will continue indefinitely.

The Deepwater Horizon After the Macondo Well Explosion

An Iceberg

First conclusion of a series that began after Earth Day and includes Fossil Fuels and a Walk on the Moon, Drill Baby Drill or Drill Baby Oops, Magnitude, Part 1, One Month After, The Chernobyl of Fossil Fuel?, and Magnitude, Part 2. )

As I wrote on Earth Day, “In 100 years our descendants will not be burning coal, oil, natural gas or using nuclear fission. They might be using terrestrial nuclear fusion. They will be using solar, wind, geothermal, marine current hydro, tidal energy systems – clean, renewable, sustainable energy systems. No fuel: No Waste. No mines, mills, wells, spills. No arsenic, lead, mercury, selenium, thorium – no carbon or fly ash to be contained, sequestered, or to leak.

“We have started. California and New Jersey lead the U. S. Germany and Spain lead Europe. Boeing and Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic want to build aircraft that run on biodiesel. We need to move forward in a big way – to 100% clean energy in 10 years, to retrain coal miners and oil rig operators to build and run solar arrays and wind turbines, and dig deep geothermal systems.”

Otherwise the Deepwater Horizon Explosion at the Macondo oil field, the oil spills in Ecuador and Nigeria, the coal ash floods like the TVA Kingston Steam Plant, coal mine disasters like at Upper Big Branch, spills like the Exxon Valdez, and events like Three Mile Island and Chernobyl will be ‘”Business as Usual.”

A friend of mine who works for BP, and who would like to work for BP Solar, tells me that most BP staff don’t go to work thinking “How can I destroy the earth today.“ They are, she says “focused on obtaining and selling oil.” Few consider themselves environmentalists. Many see this as business as usual. “Oil spills happen,” they say. They are “focused on getting petrochemicals to market.”

The Macondo oil field that was tapped by the Deepwater Horizon could have contained 1 Billion Barrels of crude. It could have been one of the largest oil discoveries in the world .” (Click here for CBS and here for Times of London). The well could gush oil for YEARS and could have met US needs in 2007 – 21 Million Barrels per Day – for 47 days (here).

This volume of crude oil – 1 Billion Barrels – could explain the explosion. The equipment was built to operate at 20,000 PSI and withstand 60,000 PSI. It the pressures exceeded the limits, then the equipment could have failed. Simple. And Catastrophic. When you consider the pressures under 5000 feet of ocean, and the pressure of 1 Billion Barrels of oil, when you have engineers scratching their head saying “I don’t know, I never saw anything like this. What do You think we should do?” One the thing to do is run like hell.

An Orca

As was noted earlier in the series, like the iceberg pictured above and the Orca pictured at left, this is a singularity. But it has precedents.

TVA Kingston: 1.2 Billion Gallons of toxic coal ash sludge, upstream of Kingston, Tennessee, 12/22/08.
Chevron Texaco: (alleged) 18 Billion Gallons (428.6 million barrels) of Oil Process Waste, Rainforests of Ecuador, 1964 to 1990.
Oil Fires of Kuwait: 6 Million Barrels per Day, up to 6 Months, 1991.
Exxon Valdez: 250,000 Barrels, Prince William Sound, 1989.
The Niger Delta, in Nigeria, 250,000 Barrels per year for the last 50 years (click here), “Big oil spills are no longer news in this vast, tropical land….has endured the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez spill every year for 50 years by some estimates…. Perhaps no place on earth has been as battered by oil, “

Flares in the Jungle

The TVA coal ash flood (here, here, here), the Upper Big Branch Mine accident (here, here), and the Deepwater Horizon at Macondo may be the “Trifecta” of American Fossil Fuel Disasters. But, like the problems in Ecuador (here) and Nigeria (here), these are “Systems Problems” – built into the system. The only way to eliminate them is to change the system.

This is what precisely what some people are trying to do. Students and faculty in the Marlboro MBA in Managing for Sustainability at the Marlboro College Graduate Center in Brattleboro, Vermont. They think about “Changing the Climate of Business.” And they may be are on to something, as are like minded people at the Presidio, the Fowler Center for Sustainable Value, at Case Western, and Columbia University’s Earth Institute.

Here’s an idea that will enable BP to make things right, change their image, and even make money. Suppose BP Solar built new factories in Florida and Louisiana, and hire former petrochemical and seafood workers – and churned out 25,000 to 50,000 PhotoVoltaic solar modules and 1,250 to 2,500 inverters per day. This would be 5 to 10 megawatts per day, 160 to 300 mw per month, 600 mw to 1.2 gigawatts per year.

According to my back of the envelope calculations, we need about 50 gw of solar in this country, along with 200 gw of wind, and 50 to 100 gw of other CRS (Clean, Renewable, Sustainable) generating capacity, so this is a drop in the bucket. But this is real change. It’s defining moment, substantive, shake the cobwebs out of the attic, hurricane force, Dorothy we’re not in Kansas anymore, paradigm shifting change.

BP Solar, or Massey Energy, or Akeena, Evergreen, First Solar, Sunpower, could do the same thing in West Virginia – build factories to manufacture PV Solar Modules and Solar Hot Water Panels, and hire local people to work in the factories.

It is change we can wrap our arms around, change we can celebrate. As President Obama might say, “change we can believe in. ”

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This was planned as the Final Post in this series on the Deepwater Horizon / Macondo oil well disaster which began after Earth Day. Other posts include:

However, I will continue to offer my thoughts and analysis once or twice per month as the oil continues to gush forth into the Gulf of Mexico.