Tag Archives: Solar Power

NREL: "30% Wind Power by 2024"

Arklow Bank Wind Farm

Arklow Bank Wind Farm, photo Courtesy GE Power

NREL, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a branch of the Department of Energy, released the findings of the “Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study, (Summary) that said:

“wind energy could provide 20 to 30 percent of the eastern half of the country’s energy needs by 2024: here’s how … “

Rush Holt, the Democrat who represents the 12th Congressional District of New Jersey, described the study in an e-mail to his constituents. Holt wrote:

“Achieving this goal would require a substantial investment both onshore and offshore.  The production of wind energy is increasing rapidly. According to the American Wind Energy Association, last year energy production increased by more than 9,000 megawatts, bringing America’s total wind power generating capacity to 35,000 megawatts, enough to power 2.4 million homes. Little of this wind energy, however, is being produced in the Northeast.”

Rush Holt, D, NJ-12

Rush Holt, D, NJ-12

“If we are to take advantage of wind power – particularly offshore wind – then we would need to begin to install turbines in windy places in the East and begin to develop rapidly our capacity to manufacture turbines in the United States. Just miles off New Jersey’s shore, the ocean breeze blows reliably at up to 20 miles an hour, the same rate as in the Great Plains. Last year the Department of the Interior conducted a survey of the resources that could be recovered from the Outer Continental Shelf.  It found that responsibly developing offshore wind could provide 1,000 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power the electricity use of 60 percent of cities on the East Coast and replace 3,000 medium-sized coal powered power plants.  New Jersey has been at the forefront of this effort, as I discussed with the Secretary of the Interior last year in New Jersey. One private venture has committed to build a $1 billion, 345 megawatt wind farm in the ocean off Atlantic City, and two other projects have been approved by the Department of the Interior.  Congress should encourage more investment to ensure we take advantage of this resource and help fuel the transition to a sustainable energy future.”

At Popular Logistics we believe that we can achieve 100% clean energy by 2020. However, we will be happy to see 30% wind power for the eastern half of the country, coupled with 30% wind power for the western half of the country, 30% solar, and the balance from hydro, geothermal, and conservation, by 2024.

Holt, a PhD physicist, was Assistant Director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory before running for Congress. He understands energy. We hope his colleagues in the Congress, and the White House, listen.

Nuclear Fusion: Cleaner Energy – Tomorrow

The Levitated Dipole Experiment (LDX) reactor is housed inside a 16-foot-diameter steel structure in a building on the MIT campus that also houses MIT’s other fusion reactor, a tokamak called Alcator C-mod.

The Levitated Dipole Experiment (LDX) reactor, Photo courtesy of the LDX team

A team of scientists led by Jay Kesner at the MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center and Michael Mauel at the Columbia University Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science announced the “first significant results” from the Levitated Dipole Experiment, LDX. (Click here for the MIT news release). Continue reading →

Nuclear Power Development Costs Skyrocket

This is not exactly “news.” Nuclear power plant  construction is synonymous with cost overruns.

(This is a “systems problem.” Anytime you have a 10 to 15 year project in the $Billion range you will find several reinforcing feedback mechanisms that increase the cost and few, if any, balancing feedback mechanisms that keep the costs at a steady state. A brief delay or a minor increase in inflation will cost $Millions.)

Radioactive SymbolCosts of the proposed nuclear plants in San Antonio, TX, have skyrocketed, even tho construction has not yet begun. Originally forecast at $2 Billion per gigawatt (gw) of capacity, roughly the cost of wind power, it is now clear that they will cost between $4.5 Billion and $6.5 Billion per gw of capacity – $12.1 billion to $17.5 billion for the reactors. Continue reading →

Copenhagen, Climate Change, China, and Dessert

Sea IceEarlier today one of my friends handed me a copy of some satire published in the New York Post, a tabloid in the tradition of the London rags, on the subject of “Climate-Gate.”  At about the same time, Roger Saillant, co-author of Vapor Trails, who heads the Fowler Center for Sustainable Value at Case Western Reserve University pointed me to Elizabeth May’s post on the hacked computers and stolen e-mails at East Anglia University. Ms. May leads Canada’s Green Party.

Patrick Michaels, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which is really a public relations arm of Exxon Mobil, was once a scientist at the University of Virginia.  He is famous for giving testimony attacking Dr. James Hansen to the U.S. Senate. However, when interviewed by Elizabeth May on Canada’s CBC Sunday Morning’s “Kyoto on Trial” in 2002, Michaels admitted to redrawing Hansen’s graph to make it wrong. Michaels, who has traded the scientific method for Stanislavsky’s acting method, admitted to perjury in his testimony before the United States Senate.

The graph shows the amount of sea ice from July thru November from 1979 to 2000, then in 2005, 7, 8, and July thru Sept., 2009. It is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder Colorado (here) published Oct. 6, 2009. The dark gray line shows Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2000. The gray band shows 2 standard deviations from the mean. The colorful lines show that Arctic sea ice is at or well below two standard deviations from the mean levels of 1979 to 2000.  Clearly there is less ice in the Arctic then there used to be. Continue reading →

Jobs, National Security, Energy, Environment, Economy

Architecting a Clean, Secure, Sustainable, Non-Carbon and Non-Nuclear Energy Future

Middelgrunden, Denmark, near Copenhagen

Middelgrunden, Denmark, near Copenhagen

  • 100 Gigawatts offshore wind. $300 Billion.
  • 100 GW land based wind. $200 Billion.
  • 50 GW solar. $325 Billion.
  • 250 GW Clean, renewable, sustainable Energy.  $825 Billion.
  • Save the World: Priceless Continue reading →

Green Energy: Our Future Depends On It

Back in February, 2009, Business Week published my article, Green Energy: Our Future Depends on It. They even asked for a picture – which I was happy to provide.  I just learned that it was picked up by other web-sites:

The article is reproduced below. Continue reading →

HOW WE WILL READ IN 100 YEARS

Google asked “How will we read in 100 years?”

Here’s what I think.

If we reinvent our economy to run on solar, geothermal, and kinetic energy, we will get our news and technical information electronically. We will still read classics on paper and mount on our walls images of loved ones and special places. If we don’t those left will struggle for survival.

There’s Something About Mary – And Keynes

 

There's Something About Mary

Back in 1931, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“Assuming no important wars, and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or at least within sight of a solution, within a hundred years. This means that the economic problem is not – if we look into the future – the permanent problem of the human race.”  – John Maynard Keynes,  “Economic possibilities for our grand-children.’ In Essays in Persuasion, 1931.

Keynes wrote that wealth would grow because of compounded interest, and we would live off of the interest. This would fuel technical inventions and dramatically increase the standard of living for a stable, peace-loving world. He thought boredom would become the permanent problem of the human race.

We would become a world populated by dilettantes flitting from party to party; a world of people like Prince Charles and Paris Hilton, although most, presumably, would not be famous and very few could become king. While some would work a few hours per week, most would have a life of leisure. People would live like the physician played by Cameron Diaz in the 1998 film “There’s Something About Mary.” They would work more on “lifestyle” issues like their golf swing than their profession.

Four factors, Keynes wrote, would effect this transition:

  1. Power to control population,
  2. Determination to avoid wars and civil dissentions,
  3. Entrust to science that which is the domain of science,
  4. Compound interest.

Continue reading →

How to fix GM? A 4 Point Plan:

President Barack Obama fired GM CEO Rick Wagoner. He was replaced by Fritz Henderson, who had been Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer. While I agree that Wagoner should probably have been fired, I think his replacement should have been someone from the outside. Promoting from within is a good thing when a company is doing well, but not when the company is collapsing. General Electric, for example, has always promoted new CEO’s from within. But GE was not in trouble when Welch took over, or when he handed the reins to Immelt. IBM was in trouble when the Board brought in Lou Gerstner, an outsider, to, as he put it, teach that elephant to dance. GM is in serious trouble. As an insider, Henderson may be too in step with the corporate culture to change anything.  As an outsider I can see what Henderson might miss.

So how would I fix GM?

  1. Every car, light truck, and truck that comes off the lot should be a diesel  electric hybrid. Like the Toyota Prius, and GM could license the technology from Toyota, but it should burn diesel fuel. That would pave the way to bio-diesel.
  2. Offer a 2 kw solar electric system with every car. This should be priced at $15,000, installed. It’s $10,500 after the economic stimulus plan’s 30% tax break. It would It would charge the batteries, or power a small home during daylight hours.
  3. Give everyone stock options, and limit salaries to $390,000 – less than the salary of the President of the United States.
  4. Demand that the government – my new management – take over the burden of health care for all my employees, my retirees, and every other citizen. Medicare works well for my father. It would work well for me!

Republican Alternative Energy: Coal, Oil, & Nuclear Power

“The Republican Road to Recovery”  according to John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Mike Pence, Thaddeus McCotter, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, John R. Carter, Pete Sessions, Kevin McCarthy, David Dreier, Roy Blunt, who signed it, “Keeps Energy and Fuel Costs Low.” It mentions wind and solar, but focuses on coal, oil, oil shale, offshore drilling, and nuclear power.

The document says “Republicans want energy independence with increased development of all natural resources, including renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar.” It doesn’t mention “global warming.” It mentions the term “greenhouse gases” once, stating, incorrectly, that nuclear power doesn’t produce greenhouse gases. Mining, processing, and transporting nuclear fuel, and managing radioactive wastes, produces tremendous amounts of greenhouse gases.

It points out that “Senators Ted Kennedy and John Kerry … have long fought a renewable wind project in waters off of Massachusetts…. Cape Wind, would provide 75 percent of the electricity demand for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket island. “

The document focuses on coal, oil, and nuclear power. These are not clean, renewable, sustainable energy sources.  Ultimately, therefore, it attempts to “greenwash” coal, oil, and nuclear power.

the Administration has already taken steps to hinder the leasing of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) which is estimated to hold at least 19 billion barrels of oil, and Democrats have long championed the prohibition on drilling in the Arctic Coastal Plain – which is estimated to hold 10.4 billion barrels of oil. Furthormore, Democrats continue to block the procurement of advanced alternative fuels from sources such as oil shale, tar sands, and coal-to-liquid technology. U.S. Oil shale alone could provide about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.

Republicans also support opening the Arctic Coastal Plain to energy exploration and development.

And despite expert agreement that nuclear power is reliable, clean, and affordable without producing air pollution or greenhouse gases, Democrats continue to block its development.

Republicans realize that there are better solutions to restore freedom and security in our energy market.  Republicans recognize the importance of exploring for American oil and gas in an envionronmentally-sound manner and support immediately leasing oil and gas resources in the OCS through an an expedited and streamlined procedure.

Republicans support removing government barriers to new nuclear reactors as long as they meet strict security and safety criteria.

Americans realize that the future of energy is in alternative and renewable sources. In order to promote the development of renewable and alternative energy, Republicans support promoting the leasing of federal lands which contain alternative energy such as oil shale. … spurring a market by using fuels derived from oil shale, tar sands, and coal.

Nuclear Fusion in 10 or 20 Years

Thomas Friedman is right in “The Next Really Cool Thing” in The New York Times, March 15, 2009, when he concludes:

At the pace we’re going with the technologies we have, without some game-changers, climate change is going to have its way with us. Yes, we’ll still need coal for some time. But let’s make sure that we aren’t just chasing the fantasy that we can “clean up” coal, when our real future depends on birthing new technologies that can replace it.

Note that he pointed out ‘the fantasy that we can “clean up” coal.

Friedman also said:

“I don’t know if they can pull this off; some scientists are skeptical. Laboratory-scale nuclear fusion and energy gain is really hard…. we need to keep working on all forms of solar, geothermal and wind power. They work. And the more they get deployed, the more their costs will go down.”

Fusion may be the game changer. “Energy Gain” means we get more energy out than we put in. The prototype will cost $10 Billion – enough for 5 GW of wind capacity, and 1.53 GW of PV Solar. And fusion is at least 10 years away, maybe 20, maybe 50. We know how to build wind and solar. (On the other hand it takes 10 years to build a nuclear fission reactor.)

But pushing carbon below 350 ppm is a problem that can’t wait 10 years.  According to the World Watch Institute’s Vital Signs, 2007-2008, the 6.5 billion humans on the earth are using the natural resources of 1.25 earths.  This can’t go on.

How to Strengthen the Grid, Minimize the Impact of Power Failures and Save Money

Stress related power failures, like the one that knocked out power in the northeastern United States and southeastern and central Canada in August 2003, are more likely to occur in the summer because of the additional air conditioning load. Storm related power failures in this part of the world are perhaps more likely in the winter because of cold weather and ice storms. In the south-east Atlantic states and the Gulf States – from North Carolina to Texas, weather related power failures are likely to follow hurricanes, and thus are more likely during late summer and autumn. Power failures caused by human action, whether accidental or willfull, i.e. terrorist, can occur any time. The only predictor is Murphy’s famous observation, “whatever can go wrong will, usually at the worst possible moment.”

There are some simple steps we can take to strengthen the grid, to minimize the probability and impact of weather related, accidental, and human triggered power failures, and to save the taxpayers and ratepayers money. Continue reading →

Statement at Marlboro Green Awareness

In Monmouth County, NJ, the Marlboro Republican Club, and the Manalapan Republican Club, are hosting  a Green Awareness Event, “An Event to Educate and Benefit our Environment” Tuesday, December 9, 2008 @ 7:00 PM, Marlboro Recreation Building – 1996 Recreation Way, Marlboro Township.  This is the statement I planned on making. I did not get a chance to speak.

However, I did get a chance to Listen.

  • Freeholder Barbara McMorrow, Monmouth County Board of Chosen Freeholders, who told us what the Freeholders will be doing for Monmouth County.
  • Mayor Fred R. Profeta, Jr, Deputy Mayor for Environment, Maplewood, NJ, who told us what people are doing in Maplewood.
  • Madea Villere, NJ Sustainable State Institute, Rutgers University, who offered a clear, succinct definition of “Sustainability” – meeting the needs of the present without compromising the needs of the future – and told us what we can do in our communities.

I’d like to thank the Manalapan Republicans and the Marlboro Republicans for holding this event.

I’d am available to talk about Nuclear Power and Coal and then Solar and Wind.

Continue reading →

Alternative fuels safer, and the law

In April of 2007, the Supreme Court ruled the federal Environmental Protection Agency must regulate carbon emissions unless it presents scientific proof that greenhouse gases do not contribute to global climate change. On Nov. 13, the EPA’s Environmental Appeals Board ruled it would do so. We need alternatives to fossil fuels and nuclear power, if for no other reason than to obey the law.

Traditional hydroelectric plants harness the energy in waterfalls. New designs harness the energy in tides, waves and ocean currents. Wind farms harness wind energy. Solar energy systems harness sunlight. Geothermal systems use heat from within the earth.

The sun will shine and the wind will blow regardless of the presence of solar panels and wind turbines. By harnessing a process rather than consuming a resource, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and other clean, renewable, sustainable technologies generate power without fuels, and without greenhouse gases, mercury, radioactive wastes, other pollutants and without the cost of fuel.

Saving the shore from global warming will help the economy. And it’s the law.

This was published as a letter to the editor in the Asbury Park Press, Friday, 12/5/2008.

Nuclear Plants: High Cost in Time and Money

Rebecca Smith reported in the Wall Street Journal that Florida Power and Light, FPL, is considering spending $12 to $18 Billion to construct two nuclear reactors at its appropriately named Turkey Point facility in southeast Florida.

Florida Power says “two advanced-design nuclear plants at Turkey Point that would add between 2,200 and 3,000 megawatts. If built, the units are expected to go into service in the years 2018 and 2020.”

John Dorschner writes in the Miami Herald that FPL wants to start billing today for plants that may or may not be built and running in 10 to 12 years!“ The average home electric bill in South Florida is likely to increase about $2.50 a month next year to start paying for two nuclear power plants that Florida Power & Light hopes to put in service in 10 or 12 years.” That’s like “buy now pay later,” except it’s “pay now, buy later”. And the plants haven’t been approved by Florida’s Public Service Commission. So it’s “Pay now, buy later — maybe!’

What about Wind Power? The 7.5 MW Atlantic County Utilities Authority Wind Farm cost an estimated $12 million, approximately $1.6 per watt. (click here)

Putting the pieces of this puzzle together, FPL wants to spend $12 to $18 Billion, assuming no cost overruns, to add 2200 to 3000 mw of capacity in 2018 or 2020. If $12 Billion builds 2200 MW, then we are looking at $5.46 per watt of capacity. Similarly, if $18 Billion builds 3000 MW, we are looking at $6.00 per watt. That’s about what it costs to install commercial scale PV solar, and about four times what it costs to build land based wind farms, and twice what it costs to construct an offshore wind farm. And it takes a whole lot less than 10 or 12 years to install solar panels and build wind farms. Since there is no fuel, there is no fuel cycle, there are no fuel costs, there is no waste heat, and are no toxic or radioactive wastes with wind and solar.

Let’s ignore for a second the fact that nuclear plants present terrorists with targets, the massive subsidies that the government provides nuclear power, the national security ramifications of nuclear power, and the fact that the NRC fires whistleblowers and ignores critics — which in and of itself is a cause for concern — the regulator appears to be incompetent. Why should we spend Billions to build nuclear plants that won’t be operational for at least 10 or 12 years when we could spend a fraction to build solar and wind systems — which are available almost immediately with no pollution, no security challenges, no potential for disaster, and no need for incompetent government regulators?

  Nuclear PV Solar PV Solar Wind — Offshore Wind — Onshore
  FPL Turkey Point NJ Residential NJ Commercial Estimated NJ ACMUA
Cost $12 Billion $80,000 $20 Million $24 Million $12 Million
Capacity 2.2 GW 10 KW 3.5 MW 7.5 MW 75 MW
Cost / watt $5.45 $8.00 $5.71 $3.20 $1.60
Fuel Unknown $Zero $Zero $Zero $Zero
Safety & Oversight Unknown $Zero $Zero $Zero $Zero
Security Unknown $Zero $Zero $Zero $Zero
Waste Management High $Zero $Zero $Zero $Zero