Category Archives: risk assessment

How jihadists schedule terrorist attacks – John Hudson at Foreign Policy

Image following, courtesy United States Army, is of aftermath of a bus bombing in Iraq on 17 August, 2005, at about 0750 local time.

Iraq-terrorist_attack_on_buses August 17 2005

John Hudson, writing at Foreign Policy, makes a strong case that calendar day (month/day) is not a useful predictor of jihadist attacks. From “How jihadists schedule terrorist attacks“:

On Friday, the Boston Police Department announced plans to beef up security during the city’s Fourth of July festivities in the wake of new remarks from Boston bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev that he and his brother originally scheduled a bombing attack for Independence Day. The reference has renewed interest in the symbolic scheduling of terrorist strikes against the West. Continue reading

The limits of network security: tension between convenience and safety

Map of Queensland, Australia

Map of Queensland, Australia

 

Long ago, 2000, and far away, in Australia, a malevolent hacker targeted the sewerage system. Courtesy of the site AssembleIt.Net, excerpted from Australia’s Hacked History

In April 2000 a man, Vitek Boden was arrested and charged with offences relating to the unlawful entry into Maroochy Shire Council’s sewerage system and environmental damage. His attack via wireless technology altered electronic data that led to malfunctions of the sewerage system. This caused a clean up cost of $13,110 and untold damage to the environment. The Crown’s case against Boden relied heavily on circumstantial evidence which exposed several areas for criticism for the defendant.

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National Incident Map – quick visual overview

NationalIncidentMap.com has, using a mix of feeds and twitter posts from volunteers, created constantly updated maps, focused on several types of risk with a time-frame of the previous 24 hours. It’s not exhaustive, but it’s a good demonstration of what’s possible with crowdsourcing and aggregation. We’re not sure this could be comprehensive and complete without at least some full-time staff – but it’s still useful. There are also links to the same data in list form, and each incident market includes some data about the incident which it represents.

[imagebrowser id=108]

National Incident Map is also looking for more volunteers; their pitch, from their welcome page, appears below:

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DebateGraph.org: visualization and collaboration tools

Debategraph is a software tool with applications for addressing, defining and attacking many types of problems in many ways. Here’s one of their interactive maps on epidemiology:

Who’s using it? Apparently the White House, CNN, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Office in the United Kingdom. A concept map explaining DebateGraph itself appears below.

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Vizicities: Rich Geo Data Visualization Tool

Vizicities, now in development, may be the richest and most layered geographic information tool ever, which might make it the ideal urban planning, risk management and disaster response management tool ever. Based explicitly on the data layers in the game SimCity, it’s being developed by Pete Smart and Rob Hawkes.

Here’s a screenshot from SimCity:

SimCity Screenshot

SimCity Screenshot

And here are screenshots of Vizicities, still in early days:

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Dashboard Camera Captures Airplane Falling

httpv://youtu.be/3Zaqi5DwCYE

Via Kottke.org, a Russian dashboard cam captures a plane crash. Apparently, according to Kottke, dashboard video is very popular in Russia. See Kottke’s earlier post Russians are dashboard-cam crazy.

I would disagree with Kottke. The Russians are not crazy. Apparently their legal and insurance systems are in such a state of failure that  vehicle owners must be prepared to capture their own evidence in order to prove their claims. Thus a driver with a dashboard camera can provide proof of the facts of a case.

Maybe that’s a good outcome – better evidence, more accurate outcomes – but a sad way to come to it. On the other hand, as we have seen here in the United States, after members of the LA Police were filmed beating Rodney King,  citizens with video have prompted the police to change their behavior.

German authorities find new al-Qaeda documents hidden in porn files on flash drive: CNN

Editor’s note: since al-Qaeda and its allied forces claim that pornography is sinful, and that Westerners are obsessed and debased by it, isn’t a flash drive which appears to contain pornography the very first object  immoral investigators would examine while conducting a search? Apparently Germany’s intellligence and law enforcement agencies aren’t so easily distracted.  From CNN’s Documents give new details on al Qaeda’s London bombings

This story is based on a 46-page internal al Qaeda document, details of which were obtained by CNN. A senior U.S. counterterrorism official told CNN that U.S. authorities have concluded it was written by British al Qaeda operative Rashid Rauf. It was discovered by German cryptologists, along with more than 100 other documents, embedded inside a pornographic movie on a memory disk belonging to a suspected al Qaeda operative arrested in Berlin last May. The German newspaper Die Zeit was the first to report on the documents.

(CNN) — Rashid Rauf was one of al Qaeda’s most capable planners, a British citizen who operated for years in Pakistan and planned some of the terror group’s most ambitious attacks. And he wrote about them in great detail.

Rauf’s detailed analysis — meant for al Qaeda’s senior leadership — shows he was intimately involved in planning the devastating attack on the London transport system in 2005, and tells the inside story of the planning for that attack and another that failed just weeks later.

Rauf’s notes were part of a treasure trove of al Qaeda documents discovered by German authorities that CNN recently obtained access to.

More: Future plots | Liquid bomb plot origins

On July 7, 2005, four suicide bombers led by Mohammed Siddique Khan, a British citizen of Pakistani descent, killed 52 people on three London subway trains and a bus.

CNN’s coverage, including references to the relevant earlier events, is outstanding, and provides critical context via internal and  external links on well-designed and easily navigable pages, including photographs coverage and video clips. Start with this  link, CNN’s Documents give new details on al Qaeda’s London bombings  (identical to the  first link above).

See also plus the Telegraph’s Al-Qaeda commander’s guide to beating MI5, also with excellent links to relevant prior and parallel coverage, by Duncan Gardham, without whom we. likely would have missed the CNN coverage.  Mr. Gardham is

The Daily Telegraph’s Investigations Correspondent. He has specialised in writing about international terrorism and espionage. Duncan has covered all the major al-Qaeda plots in Britain including the fertiliser bomb plot, the July 7 and July 21 bombings, the London and Glasgow car bombs, the trans-Atlantic airlines plot and the Manchester shopping centre plot. He has also written about counter-terrorism policy and international developments such as the death of Osama bin Laden.

We’ve been remiss in neither keeping up with his work nor directing our readers’ attention  to it. An archive of his work for The Daily Telegraph can be found at this link: Duncan Gardham.

WWII-era fire apparatus, Australia (image by Kristarella)

WWII-era ladder truck. Image by Kristarella/Kristarella.com

We’ve got a few reasons for publishing this image: Kristarella, an outstanding web designer and software developer, is also a fabulous photographer, and we encourage you to check out her Photoblog for page after  page of images which will capture your curiousity, imagination and awe. But that’s not, strictly speaking, on-topic.  These reasons are:

  1. We’re about to run a series of posts about firefighting apparatus – which is to say vehicles, mobile firefighting equipment, as opposed to infrastructure (fire water mains, sprinklers, hand-held gear and, as important as the rest, prevention), and thought this mid-20th century piece would be a good reference point;
  2. Note the following screenshot: Kristarella is a leader in managing the metadata – EXIF   (Exchangeable image file format, Wikipedia entry; see alsoEXIF.org) which accompanies digital images. We hope to explore the ways in which EXIF data and images might be used to crowd source risk assessment, disaster planning, and disaster response. So we’ll be exploring Kristarella’s Thesography Plugin, and more tools that will exploit EXIF and other usable meta-data.

"Surveillance" doesn't necessarily afford prediction or prevention

The prime suspect in the recent spree of murders in France turns  out to have been under police surveillance, in Afghan custody at one point, American military custody at another – none of which seems to have had any effect on his actions. From Scott Sayare’s account, Cornered Suspect Admits Killing 7 in France, Officials Say

TOULOUSE, France — A 23-year-old Frenchman of Algerian descent claimed responsibility on Wednesday for the methodical killings of four men and three children in this region over the past 10 days, officials said, after barricading himself in a small apartment building in Toulouse surrounded by hundreds of police officers.

The French authorities said he had traveled to Pakistan and Afghanistan, called himself a mujahedeen, or freedom fighter, and had been under surveillance for years. In a standoff that stretched past 14 hours, he fired several heavy volleys at the hundreds of police officers ringing the building, injuring two, though neither seriously. At one point the suspect threw a .45-caliber pistol from the window, the same kind used in each of the three attacks. The prosecutor leading the investigation said the man, Mohammed Merah, made a series of disclosures to a negotiator, including that he had been trained by Al Qaeda, and that the attacks were meant to avenge the deaths of Palestinian children, and to protest French military deployments abroad as well as a recent French law banning the full Islamic facial veil in public. He admitted to planning at least three more killings, said the prosecutor François Molins, speaking at a news conference on Wednesday afternoon. Mr. Merah claimed responsibility as the helmeted motorcyclist who killed three paratroopers in Toulouse and the nearby city of Montauban, all three of Arab descent, over the past 10 days, Mr. Molins said. Boasting that he had “brought France to its knees,” he also admitted to a brutally cold attack on Monday outside a Jewish school that killed a rabbi, two of his young children, and an 8-year-old girl, the prosecutor said. In that attack, the gunman held the girl by the hair to execute her, pausing to switch to a .45 when his 9-millimeter pistol jammed. Investigators believe he was wearing a camera around his neck at the school to record his murders. Mr. Merah had planned to kill a soldier Wednesday morning, and at some point to kill two police officers here, Mr. Molins said. The chief editor of France 24 said in a televised interview that she had spoken by telephone to a man who claimed to be the shooter in the hours before the police surrounded Mr. Merah’s building. “He was calm, was speaking in very good French and punctuated by Arabic expressions,” said the editor, Ebba Kalondo. She also said he spoke of planning more attacks and intending to post video of his killings online. The suspect had been detained by Afghan police at one point during his travels in Afghanistan and Paksitan, Mr. Molins said, and was transferred into American custody and returned to France. Afghan authorities did say a man named Mohammed Merah had escaped from a prison in the city of Kandahar in a mass jail break orchestrated by the Taliban in 2008. but that he was definitely an Afghan citizen.

Interior Minister Claude Guéant said that the Mr. Merah cornered in Toulouse had been under surveillance by the French domestic intelligence service for several years, “though nothing whatsoever allowed us to think he was at the point of committing a criminal act.”

MakeZine.com: “civilian-friendly” Geiger counter

Laura Cochrane, writing on Makezine.com, reports on the development of  A Stylish and More User-Friendly Geiger Counter:

Coming on the heels of the year anniversary of the Japanese Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Bunnie Huang, a member of the MAKE Tech Advisory Board, tasked himself with designing a civilian-friendly Geiger counter. He was inspired by the efforts of Safecast, an organization whose goal is to build an open sensor network that aggregates trustable, source-neutral radiation monitoring data.

The problem with the current crop of radiation monitors is that they are basically laboratory instruments: accurate & reliable, but bulky, expensive, and difficult to use, requiring a degree in nuclear physics to understand exactly what the readings meant. Another problem with crises like these is that while radiation monitoring is important, it’s something that is typically neglected by the civilian population until it is too late.

Therefore, the challenge set out before me was to design a new Geiger counter that was not only more intuitive and easier to use than the current crop, but was also sufficiently stylish so that civilians would feel natural carrying it around on a daily basis.

We need one of these on every block, and lots of radiation detectors with IP addresses, widely dispersed. Because we need that many, essentially in a distributed network, we should be able to manage large economies of scale, with substantial reductions in  price.

Planning for housing special populations: Vermont's state mental hospital made unusable by Tropical Storm Irene

Even though it only housed 51 patients, Vermont has been having difficulty replaced the state hospital which housed its most seriously mentally  ill patients.  Patients – medical, psychiatric, assisted living – all have more particularized needs: ramps for gurneys, power for medical equipment, adequate power and water – a complete list would be long. When we assess risk and plan, perhaps we need to start  planning with the most difficult and the most vulnerable populations. Abby Goodnough, reporting in The New York Times, gives a clear picture of the difficulty of rapidly replacing specialized facilities. From Storm Has Vermont Scrambling to Find Beds for Mentally Ill

Among the casualties of the flooding that ravaged Vermont during Tropical Storm Irene was a faded brick hospital that housed the state’s most seriously ill psychiatric patients.

Eight feet of water from the Winooski River inundated the century-old building on Aug. 28, forcing the 51 residents, most of whom had been sent there involuntarily, to the upper floors. The next day, they were evacuated by bus to temporary placements around the state.

 

Two months later, the Vermont State Hospital remains closed — for good, Gov. Peter Shumlin says — and the state is grappling with how to care for acutely mentally ill residents.

 

“We really have kind of an unprecedented situation on our hands,” said Jill Olson, a vice president of the Vermont Association of Hospitals and Health Systems, an advocacy group, “where the highest level of care for a mental health situation in Vermont just washed away.”

 

In a strange way, the disaster presented an opportunity that many state officials and mental health advocates had been seeking in vain for years. The state hospital had so many problems that the federal government decertified it in 2003; state leaders had been vowing to close it ever since, but were stalled by indecision about what to build in its place. “All of us thought that it was so shabby and so old and so difficult to make safe that it was time to replace it,” said Dr. Robert Pierattini, chief of psychiatry at Fletcher Allen Health Care in Burlington, the state’s teaching hospital. “But I don’t see any evidence that we can get by without a state hospital.”

WSJ: Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real – WSJ.com

Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal, Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real, by Adam Entous, Devlin Barrett, and Jessica Holzer. Emphasis supplied.  Our view is that the governmental response at all levels has been outstanding. The question remains whether Al-Qaeda used this threat

  • in order to force us to waste resources, and perhaps respond less methodically next time by making us accustomed, in a sense, to this sort of threat?
  • In order to smoke out a suspected informant?
  • In order to study our responses as an aid in their planning?

My comments above are not meant to suggest anything should have been done differently; rather to suggest how difficult it is to counter this conflict effectively.

 

U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies have been on heightened alert since Wednesday, when authorities first learned of a suspected plot involving one or more car bombs in New York and Washington timed around Sunday’s 9/11 anniversary.

Agents have been looking for three people allegedly involved, but officials said on Sunday it remained unclear whether the car-bomb plot was actually under way or if they were chasing a false lead intended to trip up U.S. security and scare Americans.

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, said on Fox News Sunday that the administration was taking the threat very seriously. “I want everything to be done to find out whether this information from these sources has any credibility to it,” he said.

The car-bomb tip was obtained by U.S. intelligence officials from a source in Afghanistan who has been reliable in the past, officials said.

The source told the Americans that al Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, believed to be in Pakistan, approved the plot. But U.S. officials stressed that the information has yet to be corroborated. Mr. Zawahiri took the reins of al Qaeda after the U.S. killed Osama bin Laden in May.

Underlining heightened concerns about the threat, Mr. Obama huddled Saturday with his national-security team to assess the latest threat information. At the meeting, Mr. Obama said the U.S. couldn’t afford to “relax its counterterrorism efforts in the weeks and months that follow” the anniversary on Sunday, reflecting concerns that attacks could still be in the works.

In addition to the suspected car-bomb plot linked to al Qaeda in Pakistan, U.S. authorities believe Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has ambitions for its own attacks.

On Sunday, top officials from various departments and agencies involved in counterterrorism and law enforcement met again at the White House to review information on the threat.

The suspected car-bomb plot spurred law-enforcement officials late last week to roll out extra security precautions, including vehicle checkpoints in New York, where police officers were scrutinizing trucks and vans.

New York also beefed up the number of state troopers at the World Trade Center site, Pennsylvania Station, Grand Central Terminal and the region’s bridges and tunnels.

Many of the security measures were already planned around Sunday’s Sept. 11 anniversary but some measures were stepped up in response to the threat, which was first reported Thursday.

In the wake of the raid that killed bin Laden in May, the U.S. has characterized the threat from al Qaeda’s central leadership in Pakistan as waning.

But a counterterrorism official said the information the U.S. received about the suspected car-bomb plot raised alarm bells because of its level of specificity.

The source in Afghanistan gave the U.S. a description of the individuals involved, their tactics, target locations and the plot’s timing for the days immediately before or after Sunday’s anniversary.

Even as they search for leads in the investigation, authorities don’t have enough information about the three described individuals to know their true identities. While multiple officials have said the original source of the information provided highly detailed information about the plot, the details about the alleged plotters is frustratingly vague, U.S. officials said.

Officials have repeatedly said the information remained unconfirmed and could be an al Qaeda attempt to misdirect the U.S., or the operatives could have overstated their capabilities. U.S. officials had said that in the limited time left before the 10th anniversary on Sunday, they might not be able to verify the intelligence.

Emphasis supplied. Via Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real – WSJ.com.

Hal Needham on Fresh Air

Fresh Air interviews Hal Needham,  screenwriter, director, send-unit director, stunt arranger, stun performer, and pioneer of high-speed automobiles, specifically rocket-powered automobiles.  Needham was also a paratrooper during the Korean War, but  we haven’t been able to determine with which division he served.

Why do we mention Hal Needham, apart from the intrinsic interest in such a cool guy, whose interview with Terry Gross is well worth the time? He’s relevant because he’s spent a career – perhaps several careers, learning new things, and carefully judging risk.  As regular readers have no doubt divined, we’re keenly interested in both of those things: learning in general and learning about risk.

Happy Labor Day.

When "just-in-time" ordering is actually too late

HAZMAT Class 7 Radioactive U.S. DOT

Irwin Redlener has pointed out that, in the event of a serious influenza outbreak – “pandemic” – which means that the high incidence of a given illness is greater than normal not only in one community (an epidemic) – but in a wider area than would normally be expected – we would be in sudden need of many more mechanical ventilators ((These ventilators are descendants of the “Iron Lung” and the 1928 “Drinker respirator.”  See Wikipedia entry for “Mechanical Ventilator.”)) than are normally needed.

For instance, one credible – but not worst-case – scenario of avian influenza would leave New York State short 50,000 ventilators, and another with a nationwide shortfall of 700,000. The International Business Times has reported that a physician on the faculty at Stanford has developed a high-quality, low-cost ventilator.

The low-end model, called OneBreath, was designed by a team of researchers led by Matthew Callaghan, MD, at Stanford Biodesign, a training incubator in medical technology that brings together multidisciplinary teams of medical, engineering, law and business school students to address unmet medical needs with innovative approaches.

Callaghan says that the idea struck him first at a planning meeting at a hospital that was trying to formalize criteria to decide which type of patients would receive life support from the limited number of ventilators in the hospital should a scenario arise when emergency demand outstrips supply. Later, an alarming piece of statistics – that the United States would fall short of 700,000 ventilators in the event of a moderate-to-severe influenza pandemic – triggered the thought of commercialization of the innovation.   Continue reading