When "just-in-time" ordering is actually too late

HAZMAT Class 7 Radioactive U.S. DOT

Irwin Redlener has pointed out that, in the event of a serious influenza outbreak – “pandemic” – which means that the high incidence of a given illness is greater than normal not only in one community (an epidemic) – but in a wider area than would normally be expected – we would be in sudden need of many more mechanical ventilators ((These ventilators are descendants of the “Iron Lung” and the 1928 “Drinker respirator.”  See Wikipedia entry for “Mechanical Ventilator.”)) than are normally needed.

For instance, one credible – but not worst-case – scenario of avian influenza would leave New York State short 50,000 ventilators, and another with a nationwide shortfall of 700,000. The International Business Times has reported that a physician on the faculty at Stanford has developed a high-quality, low-cost ventilator.

The low-end model, called OneBreath, was designed by a team of researchers led by Matthew Callaghan, MD, at Stanford Biodesign, a training incubator in medical technology that brings together multidisciplinary teams of medical, engineering, law and business school students to address unmet medical needs with innovative approaches.

Callaghan says that the idea struck him first at a planning meeting at a hospital that was trying to formalize criteria to decide which type of patients would receive life support from the limited number of ventilators in the hospital should a scenario arise when emergency demand outstrips supply. Later, an alarming piece of statistics – that the United States would fall short of 700,000 ventilators in the event of a moderate-to-severe influenza pandemic – triggered the thought of commercialization of the innovation.  

In line with the credo of Biodesign, Callaghan and his team spent three months on clinical observation, asking questions, identifying needs, analyzing markets and brainstorming concepts. Along the way, they also learned about managing intellectual property, the regulatory process and medical reimbursements and applied these knowledge to their specific project. This also helped them arrive at a well defined need – both in terms of device design and a potential market in the developing countries where explosive population was ill-paired with a serious dearth of emergency infrastructure.

As reported by Spectrum, the Stanford Center for Clinical and Translational Education and Research, the OneBreath team lowered manufacturing costs by reducing the number of parts; airflow is measured and controlled with propriety software rather than hardware. To ensure operability and portability during natural disasters, the compact plastic housing is rugged, grime-resistant, stackable and easy to carry. To cope with power outages, units come with a seven-hour rechargeable battery.Keeping in mind the possible lack of expert technicians during such disasters, the units have been so designed as to make it possible for novices to operate and repair them; a breathing tube replacement costs 50 cents, rather than the $180 required for the same process in high-end ventilators!

With a targeted cost of under $800, OneBreath’s retail price should be a fraction of comparable ventilators. Thus it should realize Callaghan’s initial vision of making it possible and affordable for governments and institutions to stockpile units for potential disasters.

The overall project has truly been a multidisciplinary effort; “When we needed a business plan, we visited the Stanford Graduate School of Business, and three students wrote our plan as part of a class assignment. After we built our first cardboard prototypes, we went over to Stanford’s pulmonary and critical care office with donuts and coffee, and the physicians were happy to provide user feedback,” Callaghan is quoted by Spectrum.

The product has received wide acclaim so far, having been named a Popular Science Invention of the Year in 2010 and winning awards from the American Association for Respiratory Care, the American College of Surgery Clinical Congress and NCIAA BMEidea. However, Callaghan estimates that it will take at least another year and $2.5 million for the commercial launch of OneBreath, after completion of final testing, agency approvals, pilot manufacturing and lockdown of technical documentation.

From Stanford researchers work on low-cost medical ventilator for global disasters

Dr. Callaghan isn’t the first physician who’s proven that the medical device market isn’t aggressively competitive, and that “dressing up”  otherwise quotidian technology as “medical grade” may command higher prices than would be had in a more competitive environment. Reducing the price isn’t the only issue. It’s the mindset which  ignores low-probability outcomes, gambling that they won’t occur during, for instance, a particular politician’s term in office.  If Dr.  Callaghan and colleagues get the best ventilator possible manufactured and shipped for an absurdly low price – as communities we need to be certain that we have what we need on hand in emergencies:   ventilators, reserve power for hospitals and police stations – we still need to plan ahead on critical supplies, skills, and organization. In other words – some of us can have whatever we want shipped overnight to anywhere in the country – almost any item which doesn’t require customization,  a license, or which is so expensive that they’re only made to order (think military plans, ships and submarines).

When the Japanese have made their power grid safe and effective again – and being a very determined people, if Japan decides to hedge its energy bets with more conservation and renewable energy,  and less nuclear,  it’s a safe bet that they’ll come up with even more brilliant solutions than they have to date – Geiger counter and dosimeter manufacturers will eventually catch up with demand. Let’s hope that demand remains high – so that we’ve got lots of radiation detection equipment readily availale around the country.

The  secret is – with certain goods – there is no “correct” inventory. Only “not enough” and “too many,” in varying degrees. With ventilators and radiation equipment, let’s err on the side of “too many.” We won’t regret it.

But we recommend that people, families, neighbors, communities, invest in some radiation detection equipment while pushing for large government purchases to gt prices down. Remember that radiation detection equipment, if easily available,  can prevent unnecessary panic – and accurate warning, especially if no one party has a monopoly on the information.

GeigerCounters.com also sells a network software package which allows the upload of radiaton data (Windows only, $80 for the network version; $60 for the single-user version),  and detectors of various kinds, all useful, from $215 (a kit for an advanced model but requiring assembly), $279 for excellent ready-to-go models, and all the way up to about $1,200.