WMX has an appropriate response to what’s likely to be the latest edition of “security theatre” – this year’s TOPOFF exercise.
Our “premier terrorism preparedness exercise” is based on a dirty bomb threat? And has been based on a dirty bomb threat for the last 8 years?
I’m only halfway kidding. The United States has a lot of problems that, while they might not look as big as a “dirty bomb” going off, are a bit more pressing. Case in point: 11 September was not a radiological, chemical or biological attack.
Future devastating attacks will be “black swans” (as John Robb calls them in Brave New War), attacks coming out of left field that are cheap and unexpected and targeted at infrastructure. Why were the attacks of 11 September genius? Hijackings had been around for decades by that point. Dealing with them had become fairly old hat.
They were brilliant because they connected two things that people hadn’t connected before. Who thinks of turning an airplane into a guided missile? No one- until someone with great synthesis skills started turning over airplanes in their head.
The attacks on the Trade Center probably caused less casualties than a radiological attack would. Why was that message chosen then? Because it made people afraid to fly. Because no one was thinking about defending against that kind of attack. We’ve been preparing to respond to radiological emergencies for better than thirty years.
Wargaming programs like TOPOFF would be better off confronting “top officials” and first responders with something that they’ve never seen before. Hit them with something like an attack on a power plant, or an oil refinery, or a bridge. Attack the infrastructure. This isn’t a new idea- it’s been around since John Warden’s The Air Campaign and we used it to toss Iraq in DESERT STORM. Why do we assume that our enemies won’t be that smart?
I’ll add that – as someone involved at the local level – in a city in which the Fire and Police departments didn’t do serious drills between the 1993 and 2001 WTC attacks – we need to spend money and energy on working-level
drills.
Or
- another example from Irwin Redlener – hospital evacuations – logistically complex – and under some circumstances, absolutely critical;
- evacuations of other institutions. For instance – the world’s largest prison – Riker’s Island – isn’t too far above sea level. In a flood, are we going to let prisoners drown?
- Attacks on pipelines – or other underground infrastructure
I think WingmanX may have stumbled across the bureaucratic tripwire of this rule: if we acknowledge a problem, we then must take responsibility for solving it.