Category Archives: WMX

"Dirty Water = Dead Iraqis"

AcademyWingman, points out in this post the folly of interrupting or slowing chlorine shipments because insurgents have used the trucks as weapons or targets (and as targets then immediately incorporated into the weapon, so to speak), creating deadly chlorine gas.

I urge you to read WingManX’s perceptive post – and assuming you have – I’d add the following points;

–  WingmanX contends that fear itself is a force multiplier for the insurgents; well put!  ;

– in a parallel manner, the chlorine becoms a force multiplier for an IED or truck bomb;

– But – the chlorine isn’t just chlorine  it’s like a big water truck – because the entire water supply’s cleanliness – the health of the entire Iraqi people depends  on potable water. If there were water deliveries – wouldn’t we devote great tactical and strategic forces – and intellectual resources- to making sure the population gets water? This is like letting people die of thirst – but slower  – because they’re dying not from dehydration (no water at all), but water-borne diseases, like dysentery;

In other words, if the enemy can bait us into depriving the Iraqi population of water – and our role there is to protect the Iraqis, and help them to rebuild, who’s winning if the chlorine can’t get through? The bad guys win big. They’re essentially dictating our strategy.
– See also last week’s coverage of Iraq’s power grid plans. They’re doing deals with the Chinese and the Iranians – for multi-megawatt systems. Entirely susceptible to attack. Apparently no one at the energy ministry has read the NPS “Solar Eagle” proposal – or anything abotu network theory.

– Robert Baer – in See No Evil 

described that sttae of sewer and water systems in one or two large Saudi cities – where subpar binLaden family construction has left the water system at risk for leaking from the sewage

system. (I’ll get a copy of the book and a page citation tomorrow).

We owe these people an infrastructure at least as good as what we found when we got there.

Orbiting

WMX has an appropriate response to what’s likely to be the latest edition of “security theatre” – this year’s TOPOFF exercise.

Our “premier terrorism preparedness exercise” is based on a dirty bomb threat?  And has been based on a dirty bomb threat for the last 8 years?

I’m only halfway kidding.  The United States has a lot of problems that, while they might not look as big as a “dirty bomb” going off, are a bit more pressing.  Case in point: 11 September was not a radiological, chemical or biological attack.

Future devastating attacks will be “black swans” (as John Robb calls them in Brave New War), attacks coming out of left field that are cheap and unexpected and targeted at infrastructure.  Why were the attacks of 11 September genius?  Hijackings had been around for decades by that point.  Dealing with them had become fairly old hat.

They were brilliant because they connected two things that people hadn’t connected before.  Who thinks of turning an airplane into a guided missile?  No one- until someone with great synthesis skills started turning over airplanes in their head.

The attacks on the Trade Center probably caused less casualties than a radiological attack would.  Why was that message chosen then?  Because it made people afraid to fly.  Because no one was thinking about defending against that kind of attack.  We’ve been preparing to respond to radiological emergencies for better than thirty years.

Wargaming programs like TOPOFF would be better off confronting “top officials” and first responders with something that they’ve never seen before.  Hit them with something like an attack on a power plant, or an oil refinery, or a bridge.  Attack the infrastructure.  This isn’t a new idea- it’s been around since John Warden’s The Air Campaign and we used it to toss Iraq in DESERT STORM.  Why do we assume that our enemies won’t be that smart?

WingmanX’s post here.

I’ll add that – as someone involved at the local level – in a city in which the Fire and Police departments didn’t do serious drills between the 1993 and 2001 WTC attacks – we need to spend money and energy on working-level

drills. 

Or

  • another example from Irwin Redlener – hospital evacuations – logistically complex – and under some circumstances, absolutely critical;
  • evacuations of other institutions. For instance – the world’s largest prison – Riker’s Island – isn’t too far above sea level. In a flood, are we going to let prisoners drown?
  • Attacks on pipelines – or other underground infrastructure

I think WingmanX may have stumbled across the bureaucratic tripwire of this rule: if we acknowledge a problem, we then must take responsibility for solving it.