Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

Dare to Be Great, President Obama

US Presidential Inauguration

Close to One Million people were in Washington to celebrate President Obama’s second inauguration. As Rachel Maddow commented on her show, you can catch a glimpse of the character of the man in his unscripted moments. She showed footage of Barack the man, with Michelle and their children. Maddow also showed that on the occasion of his Second Inauguration, President Obama turned, as people walked past him, to regard the crowd, estimated on The Hill, to over 1,000,000 people, and said “I’ll never see this again.”

But we can also infer the character of the man from his speeches. He said “We” 65 times. He said “I” four times, including the phrase “you and I” twice.

Obama’s greatest accomplishments for his first term, according to an NBC Poll:

  1. Ending the War in Iraq
  2. Killing Osama bin Laden
  3. Raising taxes on the wealthiest while not raising taxes on everyone else.

I would add passing the Affordable Care Act, aka ObamaCare and thwarting the Republican efforts in the House and Senate to be a One Term President.

Continue reading

Barbara Buono will Win, Apple will Grow, Assad will Die and other forecasts for 2013


LF_w_Barbara_Buono

In “The World Will Not End and Other Predictions for 2012,” I developed a set of predictions for 2012, the accuracy of which were described by me in 2012 Revisited. Here are my predictions for 2013. As noted last year, I am extrapolating from patterns that I see – also known as reading tea leaves.

  1. New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie will lose his re-election campaign to NJ Senator Barbara Buono, pictured with me, above. The Tea Party Republicans will not compromise with President Obama, Democrats in the House and Senate, or the Republican Leadership in the House and Senate.  They will, again, threaten to shut-down the U. S. government.
  2. A major hurricane will batter the Gulf Coast or the Eastern Seaboard, causing $25 to $80 Billion worth of damage. FEMA will be there to help.
  3. Apple will continue to report record sales and record profits. It will close out the year with a market capitalization around $650 Billion, up from today’s level of $470 Billion. If HP‘s Board doesn’t fire CEO Meg Whitman, HP may return to profitability. Dell‘s market share and market capitalization will fall.
  4. The wind and solar industries will increase in the US and globally, particularly Japan, which is now planning to have 100% renewable energy by 2040, and India, which is learning from the mistakes being made in China, Japan, and the West.
  5. Large industrial conglomerates will continue to design and sell wind turbines, LED lighting, PV solar modules and more energy efficient medical devices, etc.
  6. Assad will fall – and will die – by the end of 2014.
  7. Mohammed Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood will consolidate power in Egypt, but will not abandon the Egypt – Israel peace treaty.
  8. Iran will provide weapons and support to Islamists in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
  9. Israel, feeling threatened, and very concerned regarding Iran, Syria and Egypt, will ignore pressure to negotiate with the Palestinians.
  10. Roger Saillant and RP Siegel will not win any awards for their novel, Vapor Trails.

For an overview of the details see below.

Continue reading

How To Fix Social Security

Franklin-Roosevelt
Social Security will be solvent until 2038. (Social Security Adminstration, Summary of 2012 Annual Reports). Social Security is completely funded by the Social Security Tax and the payouts add nothing to the deficit. Reducing Social Security benefits will not reduce the Federal deficit one cent. Social Security benefits are fully funded until 2038. However, there are five changes to the structure of the Social Security tax that could, and I think should, be made.

First, eliminate the ceiling. Currently the Social Security tax is 6.2% of the first $110,000 of income. Everyone who makes $110,000 or less pays 6.2% of his or her income into the Social Security fund. People who make $50,000 pay $3,100. People who make $100,000 pay $6,200. People who make $110,000 pay $6,820. But people who make $1,000,000 also pay $6,820, as do people who make $100 million, or $1 billion. This makes Social Security a regressive tax. Eliminating the ceiling would make it flat tax.

Second, impose a floor, perhaps $25,000 per year. This would transform the tax from a regressive tax into a slightly progressive tax for the lower 80%.

Third, transform the structure of the tax to a fully progressive tax, as illustrated below.

Progressive Structure for Social Security
Income Tax Rate
Under $25,000 0.00%
$25,001 to $50,000 2.50%
$50,001 to $100,000 3.50%
$100,001 to $250,000 4.50%
$250,001 to $500,000 5.50%
$500,001 to $1.0 Million 6.50%
over $1.0 Million 7.50%
Table 1

Fourth, REQUIRE, elected and appointed representatives in all branches and at all levels of Federal government to participate in the program. That would include the President, Representatives in the House and Senate, the Honorable Justices of the Supreme Court, lower courts, as well as elected representatives in the governments of the states of the Union and territories.

And Fifth, consider Capital Gains, distributions from Trust Funds, and other distributions that are not “W2 Income” as defined by the Internal Revenue Service to be treated like “W2 Income” for the purposes of funding Social Security.

Other posts on tax policy:

  • How to Fix Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, 11/29/12, here.
  • Occupy Wall Street – On Taxes, 9/28/12, here.
  • Progressive Tax Policy, 10/28/11, here.
  • Taxes – the Price We Pay For Civilization, 8/7/11, here.

An Armed Police Presence in Every School

Police officers, image courtesy of Bureau of Labor Statistics

Police Officers, Image courtesy of BLS.

 

Following the December 14, 2012 killing of 20 children, four teachers, the principal and psychologist in Sandy Hook Elementary School, and his mother by Adam Lanza in Newtown, Connecticut (CNN),  Wayne LaPierre (bio) of the National Rifle Association gave a “Press Conference” (in which the Press were not allowed to ask any questions). He suggested that the Federal Government hire police officers for every school in the USA (full transcript: Daily Caller, Washington Post).

Left unsaid is how many new police officers we would need, and what it would cost to hire, train, and equip them. Continue reading

2012 Revisited

Crystal Ball

In “The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012, here, I wrote:

  1. Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.” (Mostly Correct, except Apple did better than I expected.)
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.” (Wrong)
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die. (The number of accidents was underestimate. Their magnitude was overestimated – however … )
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. (Wrong)
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%. (Wrong on WalMart, right on Credit Unions, altho the numbers were off.)
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase. (Right. Very Right!)
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall. (Wrong – but there’s still time.)
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States. (sadly, true, but not as bad as it could have been – thanks to Obama)
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.” (Right on Obama and the American voter. Wrong on Arpaio)
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. (Right, tho I would have like to have been wrong on this one.)

Here are the details. Continue reading

Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio

Earth from Space

Popular Logistics announces the Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio Simulation.

This portfolio is composed of companies in the solar, biofuel and LED lighting industries.

I think these are disruptive technologies, like personal computers and workstations and client server software architecture in the 1980s and aircraft in the mid-20th and automobiles in the early 20th Century. We may be approaching, or may have recently crossed a “tipping point” in the Wind, Solar, LED lighting and Bio Fuel industries.

As points of reference, this “Sustainable Energy Portfolio” will be compared to an “UnSustainable Energy Portfolio,”  composed of oil industry stocks, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Continue reading

Solar Power & Electric Utilities: Is The Paradigm Shifting?

Ground Mounted Array.

The 16-module solar array pictured above was built in 2005.  It probably has 2.5 Kilowatt (KW) to 2.8 KW of nameplate capacity. In New Jersey, residential solar systems range from 3 KW to 30 KW. Most are between 4 and 10 KW. Commercial systems range from 8KW to 200 KW. Utility scale systems are in the 10 Mega Watt (MW) to 550 MW range. In 2005, the costs for small scale residential systems were around $8.50 / watt, exclusive of any incentives. Today it is probably around half that, and cheaper for the larger utility scale systems. 1.0 MW system would require 4,000 modules of 250 watts each. The system pictured above requires about 50 square feet of land.As illustrated by the photo of the Topaz array, below, a 550 MW system, like Topaz, would require 2.2 million modules, and would cover a lot of ground.

First Solar Topaz

First Solar, FSLR, a $2.8 Billion company, and Sunpower, SPWR, an $840 Million company, two of the pillars of what is left of the American solar energy industry, made some interesting statements in their 2011 annual reports: Continue reading

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Plant, Update.

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Plant

Back in April, 2011, the Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant, on the banks of the Missouri River about 19 miles north of Omaha, was shut down for refueling. The timing was perfect because in June, 2011, the Missouri River flooded. As pictured above, the plant that had been on the shore of the river was suddenly in the middle of the river.

THE PLANT IS STILL SHUT-DOWN – 20 Months after the incident.

Erin Golden, of the Omaha World News, told me on Dec. 19, 2012,

The plant is expected to be $129 million over budget in 2012. The OPPD [Omaha Public Power District] has set a target for the First Quarter of 2013 to bring the plant back on line. And the people at OPPD are optimistic that they will get the plant back on-line. The NRC, however, is not optimistic.

Continue reading

Israel, Palestine, and the Arab Spring

Map of Palestine under the British Mandate, showing Palestine of 1922 including what is now Israel, West Bank, Gaza, in the west and Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in the east.

The America that inspires people all over the world is the America of Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life” and Ben Afleck’s “Argo.” It is a place where people can rise from humble origins to run companies or become President. It is the country of Carnegie, Ford, and Edison, of Warren Buffet, Bill Hewlett, Dave Packard, Steve Jobs, and Meg Whitman and the country of Lincoln, the Roosevelts, the Kennedys, Reagan, Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. These men and women inspired and continue to inspire people here in the United States and also in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, including Israelis, Palestinians, Arabs and Persians. They inspire people who want freedom and opportunity, a better life for themselves and their children.

This is “American Exceptionalism.” It is not that Americans are better, but that America is better.

And Israel, Palestine, and the Arab Spring …

Continue reading

How to Fix Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security

FDR in 1933
President Roosevelt created the Social Security Administration in 1935.

Pres. Johnson
President Johnson created Medicare in 1965.

President Obama
President Obama passed the Affordable Care Act in 2010.

People say “Medicare and Social Security are broken. They need to be fixed.” Some say they should be eliminated, or turned into voucher programs. What are the facts? What does “Broken” mean, in the context of Medicare and Social Security?

Continue reading

HP v Apple: The Secret or The Curse

Hewlett Packard‘s CEO Meg Whitman has her work cut out for her. It’s not just the losses due to alleged fraud committed by the management at Autonomy prior to its acquisition by HP. HP, a $25.05 Billion company, is writing off losses of $18.3 Billion to $18.5 Billion in calendar year 2012. The losses equate to 73.0% to 73.8% of the company’s value.

Continue reading

HP: What Next After Autonomy?

 

 

A cartoon shows a man in a tattered suit, in a cave, telling his children "Yes the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment we created a lot of value for shareholders."

The adult in the cartoon is not Carly Fiorina, Mark Hurd, Leo Apotheker formerly of HP, or John Lynch, formerly of HP & Autonomy. While the three ex-CEOs were paid a total of $80 Million after being fired (here), they did NOT create shareholder value. Under their guidance, the company lost 77.92% of its peak value; the shareholders lost $81.54 Billion between Dec. 31, 1999 (here) and the close of trading, Nov. 23, 2012.

While Autonomy’s $10 Billion valuation may have been John Lynch’s fraud – the FBI and it’s counterparts in London are investigating (here) –  HP’s acquisition of Autonomy was Leo Apotheker’s error, and has become Meg Whitman’s problem. I’m sure that if Whitman is unsuccessful, or the Board fires her before she can be successful, she will be well taken care of, as were Fiorina, Hurd, and Apotheker. Meanwhile Bill Hewlett & Dave Packard – who created value for the shareholders and other stakeholders – must be turning over in their graves.

Continue reading

Global Warming, New York, The Jersey Shore, and Canada

People enjoying the beach in Montreal, Canada

Image 1:  People enjoying the beach in Montreal, Canada, courtesy Jazz Hostels

While climate change and global warming will mean longer and hotter summers and shorter and warmer winters farther north in the northern hemisphere than previously, and even though we make like longer hotter summers and shorter, warmer winters …

Warmer and shorter winters mean thinner ice on frozen lakes – and people crashing through the thin ice and drowning in places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Alaska, and Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia.

Longer hotter summers also mean warmer oceans and an atmosphere that can hold more heat.

Continue reading

Power, Infrastructure, Hurricanes, and Emergencies

Hurricane Sandy, the 1,000 mile diameter storm brought rain, wind, water and power failures to 10.4 million from North Carolina up to Maine, and west to Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan in the USA and another 145,000 people in Canada, over 1.5 million people. As NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo said, here, “We have old infrastructure and new weather patterns… climate change is a reality, extreme weather is a reality, it is a reality that we are vulnerable.”

We need to build infrastructure that is more resistant to extreme storms, and resilient in the face of these kinds of storms.

Map showing people without power from Hurricane Sandy

Map showing people without power from Hurricane Sandy

Continue reading