Category Archives: Connecting the Dots

The Second Amendment – Revisited

What does the Second Amendment mean in the context of the Aurora Massacre? Columbine? Virginia Tech? Rep. Giffords Town Meeting? The assassination attempt on President Reagan? The assassination attempts on President Ford? The assassinations of President John Kennedy, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr? And conditions in other countries, Syria? Iraq? Iran?

Fat Man and Little Boy“A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed.”

US Constitution, Bill of Rights, Amendment 2.

Does this give each of us the right to our own nuclear warheads and other weapons of mass destruction? If not, what right does it convey? Continue reading

Gasoline Consumption Calculator – from http://www.verbrauchsrechner.de (via LibreOffice)

Gasoline Consumption Calculator is a free LibreOffice template for use in calculating  vehicles’ mileage per gallon, as well as other ways to calculate cost:

Project Description

 

How does it work?
Input:
  • Date
  • Start km
  • Target km
  • Liter tanked
  • Price for Gasoline

 

Output (automatic):

  • Mileage
  • Consumption per 100 km
  • Price per km

We assume with this data, one could also factor in price, cost of insurance, garaging the car,  and repairs, (and in New City, the disguised over the course of time Gasoline Consumption Calculator

Colorado movie theater attack: first reports

Mark Memmott. an NPR journalist who is one of the hosts of the NPR blog “The Two-Way,”  and his colleagues at NPR have done an outstanding job reporting this story. We’ll be checking back with NPR and other sources; it’s our hope to provide some context for these events, and what inferences and implications should be made and understood given the relative sophistication of the attack (we’ll explain why we think, in relative terms, this incident shows some signs of planning and sophistication) and the relatively low frequency of attacks in theaters, movie theaters,restaurants,  arenas – places where the are large numbers of relatively relaxed people.

In other words, a target-rich environment.

Some of what’s known at present :

  • At least 14 people are dead, police say.
  • 50 or so were reportedly injured.
  • One suspect is in custody.
  • The suspect has told police that there are explosives at his restaurant.
  • Some witness accounts report smoke bombs being used by the gunman, and at least one witness reported the use of tear gas.

from Mark Memmott, Real-Life Horror: Many Killed, Dozens Wounded At Colorado Movie Theater, on The Two-Way blog, a  project of National Public Radio (NPR).

Aside from the horror which the survivors, victims and their families must wrestle for the rest of their lives; there are law-enforcement and societal challenges. The theater and the mall in which it is located has become a crime scene. Law enforcement must get the victims and the survivors out of the theater; they must get the wounded to hospitals. Law enforcement must also interview the witnesses. The largest, most flexible government-owned space is a local public school.

Should we harden schools for use in emergencies? If so, we must install emergency generators on each of the 93,000 K-12 public schools in the USA. If so, should those generating systems be a mix of solar, wind, hydro, and battery systems or should they be diesel. Diesel generators are cheaper but diesel fuel costs money. Solar, wind, hydro and battery systems are more expensive but use no fuel, and can be used all the time. If we use hybrid or electric school buses, then can we use the bus batteries to power the schools during a power failure?

suicide among veterans

BBC

 

Lopate

 

infographic (with Garry)

 

 

From the National Institutes of Health:

Suicide is a major, preventable public health problem. In 2007, it was the tenth leading cause of death in the U.S., accounting for 34,598 deaths.1 The overall rate was 11.3 suicide deaths per 100,000 people.1 An estimated 11 attempted suicides occur per every suicide death.1

Suicidal behavior is complex. Some risk factors vary with age, gender, or ethnic group and may occur in combination or change over time.

If you are in a crisis and need help right away:

Call this toll-free number, available 24 hours a day, every day: 1-800-273-TALK (8255). You will reach the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, a service available to anyone. You may call for yourself or for someone you care about. All calls are confidential.

What are the risk factors for suicide?

Research shows that risk factors for suicide include:

  • depression and other mental disorders, or a substance-abuse disorder (often in combination with other mental disorders). More than 90 percent of people who die by suicide have these risk factors.2
  • prior suicide attempt
  • family history of mental disorder or substance abuse
  • family history of suicide
  • family violence, including physical or sexual abuse
  • firearms in the home,3 the method used in more than half of suicides
  • incarceration
  • exposure to the suicidal behavior of others, such as family members, peers, or media figures.2

However, suicide and suicidal behavior are not normal responses to stress; many people have these risk factors, but are not suicidal. Research also shows that the risk for suicide is associated with changes in brain chemicals called neurotransmitters, including serotonin. Decreased levels of serotonin have been found in people with depression, impulsive disorders, and a history of suicide attempts, and in the brains of suicide victims. 4

Are women or men at higher risk?

  • Suicide was the seventh leading cause of death for males and the fifteenth leading cause of death for females in 2007.1
  • Almost four times as many males as females die by suicide.1
  • Firearms, suffocation, and poison are by far the most common methods of suicide, overall. However, men and women differ in the method used, as shown below.1
Suicide by: Males (%) Females (%)
Firearms 56 30
Suffocation 24 21
Poisoning 13 40

Is suicide common among children and young people?

In 2007, suicide was the third leading cause of death for young people ages 15 to 24.1 Of every 100,000 young people in each age group, the following number died by suicide:1

  • Children ages 10 to 14 — 0.9 per 100,000
  • Adolescents ages 15 to 19 — 6.9 per 100,000
  • Young adults ages 20 to 24 — 12.7 per 100,000

As in the general population, young people were much more likely to use firearms, suffocation, and poisoning than other methods of suicide, overall. However, while adolescents and young adults were more likely to use firearms than suffocation, children were dramatically more likely to use suffocation.1

There were also gender differences in suicide among young people, as follows:

  • Nearly five times as many males as females ages 15 to 19 died by suicide.1
  • Just under six times as many males as females ages 20 to 24 died by suicide.1

Are older adults at risk?

Older Americans are disproportionately likely to die by suicide.

  • Of every 100,000 people ages 65 and older, 14.3 died by suicide in 2007. This figure is higher than the national average of 11.3 suicides per 100,000 people in the general population. 1
  • Non-Hispanic white men age 85 or older had an even higher rate, with 47 suicide deaths per 100,000.1

Are Some Ethnic Groups or Races at Higher Risk?

Of every 100,000 people in each of the following ethnic/racial groups below, the following number died by suicide in 2007.1

  • Highest rates:
    • American Indian and Alaska Natives — 14.3 per 100,000
    • Non-Hispanic Whites — 13.5 per 100,000
  • Lowest rates:
    • Hispanics — 6.0 per 100,000
    • Non-Hispanic Blacks — 5.1 per 100,000
    • Asian and Pacific Islanders — 6.2 per 100,000

What are some risk factors for nonfatal suicide attempts?

  • As noted, an estimated 11 nonfatal suicide attempts occur per every suicide death. Men and the elderly are more likely to have fatal attempts than are women and youth.1
  • Risk factors for nonfatal suicide attempts by adults include depression and other mental disorders, alcohol and other substance abuse and separation or divorce.5,6
  • Risk factors for attempted suicide by youth include depression, alcohol or other drug-use disorder, physical or sexual abuse, and disruptive behavior.6,7
  • Most suicide attempts are expressions of extreme distress, not harmless bids for attention. A person who appears suicidal should not be left alone and needs immediate mental-health treatment.

What can be done to prevent suicide?

Research helps determine which factors can be modified to help prevent suicide and which interventions are appropriate for specific groups of people. Before being put into practice, prevention programs should be tested through research to determine their safety and effectiveness.8 For example, because research has shown that mental and substance-abuse disorders are major risk factors for suicide, many programs also focus on treating these disorders as well as addressing suicide risk directly.

Studies showed that a type of psychotherapy called cognitive therapy reduced the rate of repeated suicide attempts by 50 percent during a year of follow-up. A previous suicide attempt is among the strongest predictors of subsequent suicide, and cognitive therapy helps suicide attempters consider alternative actions when thoughts of self-harm arise.9

Specific kinds of psychotherapy may be helpful for specific groups of people. For example, a treatment called dialectical behavior therapy reduced suicide attempts by half, compared with other kinds of therapy, in people with borderline personality disorder (a serious disorder of emotion regulation).10

The medication clozapine is approved by the Food and Drug Administration for suicide prevention in people with schizophrenia.11 Other promising medications and psychosocial treatments for suicidal people are being tested.

Since research shows that older adults and women who die by suicide are likely to have seen a primary care provider in the year before death, improving primary-care providers’ ability to recognize and treat risk factors may help prevent suicide among these groups.12 Improving outreach to men at risk is a major challenge in need of investigation.

from NIMH · Suicide in the U.S.: Statistics and Prevention

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Apple & Blackberry – Yesterday, Today, & Tomorrow

Blackberry 850 - 2-way messagingBack in 1999, I was walking down a hall to the data center of a US Navy base in Virginia, when I noticed a sign that said “Cell Phones Prohibited. Deadly Force Is Authorized in this Area.” Fortunately my cellphone didn’t ring.

One of my colleagues had an Apple Newton. Just as the Osborne and Kaypro led to the Compaq and the laptops, PDAs running the Newton operating system and PDAs from Go Computers led to the Palm Pilot, and ultimately to the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, but that’s another story.

Research In Motion had just introduced the Blackberry 850 handheld. My colleagues in the financial industry had them. I understood the potential and wanted one. That too is another story.

 

Continue reading

Cyberwar: USA & Israel v Iran, China v USA, Russia v The World

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz.

Focusing on “Operation Olympic Games,” the US efforts behind the Flame and Stuxnet cyber attacks, Mischa Glenny, in “A Weapon We Can’t Control,” an op-ed in the NY Times, 6/24/12, says the U.S. has “fired the starting gun in a new arms race … cyberweaponry.” However, Mr. Glenny ignores efforts by hackers in China and from the former Soviet Union.

Continue reading

How to blow $6 billion on a tech project | Ars Technica

n 1997, the Defense Department began its quest for the perfect family of radios: software-defined radios that, like computers, could be reprogrammed for different missions and could communicate with everything the US military used. Digital signal processing could adaptively use available radio spectrum based on the needs of the moment, turning soldiers, tanks, planes, and ships into nodes of a broadband radio-based network.The goal was to solve radio problems like this one in Afghanistan, detailed by the Center for Public Integrity in January 2012. Soldiers who watched an ambush forming on a ridge nearby found themselves limited by the hugely variable needs of their many radio systems: They had short-range models for talking with the reconstruction team; longer-range versions for reaching headquarters 25 miles away; and a backup satellite radio in case the mountains blocked the transmission. An Air Force controller carried his own radio for talking to jet fighters overhead and a separate radio for downloading streaming video from the aircraft. Some of these radios worked only while the troopers were stationary; others were simply too cumbersome to operate on the move.But the program meant to fix the mess, called the Joint Tactical Radio System JTRS, instead became a massive 15-year software and hardware development mess of its own, involving five sub-programs and multiple multi-billion dollar contracts. It has been a financial disaster for the DOD. Billions were thrown away on technology that will never see the light of day, despite multiple heroic efforts to pull the project back from the brink of disaster.JTRS provides a textbook case of what not to do in a technology development program, proving that even a few great ideas can’t save a project that has been over-specified and under-tested, and that remains blinkered to what’s going on in the world around it.

via How to blow $6 billion on a tech project | Ars Technica.

Six Sigma & The Law of The Hammer

The Bell Curve showing 3 standard deviations

Bell Curve showing Mean, μ & Standard Deviation, σ.

“The child who receives a hammer for Christmas will discover that everything needs pounding.”

One of my friends asked about “Six Sigma,” famously used by General Electric and Motorola to enhance the quality on their production lines, and famously used by Home Depot and 3M for short term gain and long term failure, (see “Six Sigma, So Yesterday,” on Business Week OnLine, here).

“I understand that Six Sigma means a very high quality system – with only 3.4 errors per million units,” my friend said. “What I don’t understand,” he added, “is the definition in terms of Standard Deviation and Normal Distribution. 99.99966% of the values will fall within 6 Standard Deviations of the Mean, compared to 99.73% of the values falling within 3 Standard Deviations of the Mean. What’s a standard deviation? And what’s a normal distribution?” Continue reading

Is Ford Motor Co Sustainable? And is Ford a Value Investment?

Ford Fusion

Ford Fusion, available as a hybrid

Back in October, 2007, I wrote about the Toyota Prius and the GM Hummer in Prius v Hummer, the Battle for the Streets and the Prius v Hummer, the Battle for the Brains. (Spoiler alert – the Prius won). Now I’m thinking about Ford Motor Company. A few years back their tag line was “Ford Has A Better Idea.” That may not be the current tag line, but I think it is the case. I will go further and say that Ford is on the road to being  Sustainable car company, and is a Value Investment.

While Toyota deserves credit for developing the hybrid- the Prius was introduced in 2000 – Ford has an extensive lineup of hybrids and is putting the EcoDrive – which boosts mileage by 20% – on vehicles, from small cars to the F150 truck. And 40% of the F150′s sold today are sold with the EcoDrive engine. Continue reading

Landmark Mistakes of the Supreme Court, Part 3

Al Gore

Al Gore

The decision in Bush v Gore is widely regarded as a landmark mistake, both because the Supreme Court acted politically and because of President Bush’s accomplishments and legacy.

While it is too recent for a historical consensus, and too political to be without controversy, virtually all liberals and progressives view the results of Bush v Gore, 2000, (Cornell Law School / Wikipedia) as disastrous based on the Bush Administration’s environmental, economic, and foreign policies, i.e., the Bush tax cuts, ignoring intelligence regarding Osama bin Laden on 6, August, 2011 (here), not killing bin Laden when we allegedly had him cornered in Tora Bora in 2001 (here), the War in Iraq, appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, etc.

Landmark Mistakes of the Supreme Court, Part 2

Fred Korematsu as a young man

If Dred Scott, Citizen’s United, and Florence v Burlington are the three worst decisions by the United States Supreme Court, (post here) then Korematsu v United States, Dec. 18, 1944, Plessy v Ferguson, May 18, 1896 are next in line.

In Korematsu v United States, decided Dec. 18, 1944, the Supreme Court upheld Executive Order 9066, authorizing the internment of all Americans of Japanese ancestry. Mr. Korematsu is biographed here.

Plessy v Ferguson, decided on May 18, 1896, enabled segregation. This was overruled by Brown v Bd. of Education, May 17, 1954, with the now famous observation that “separate but equal is inherently unequal.”

Landmark Mistakes by the US Supreme Court

Dred Scott

Dred Scott

Worst Three Decisions by the US Supreme Court: Dred Scott, Citizen’s United, and Florence v Burlington.  Dred Scott reinforced slavery – and led to the Civil War. Citizen’s United puts really, really big money in politics – think Mr. Gingrich’s sugar daddy with his $10 million in PAC-Gingrich, and leads to what we have today. Florence allows the police to strip search anyone they arrest.

The good news and is that these decisions force us to recognize that the Justices of the Supreme Court are fallible men and women who sometimes make decisions emotionally and or based on their perceived financial interest, as the five members of the Taney court whos families owned slaves and who voted for slavery.  This is also the bad news. The really bad news is that two out of three of these landmark mistakes occurred since January, 2010.

Looking with a long term perspective, the Dred Scott decision was overturned by the 14th Amendment.  Roger B. Taney and the other six justices who voted for slavery and against freedom are history. Their names are generally not remembered.  Similarly, Citizen’s United and Florence can, should, and someday will be overturned. Roberts, Alito, Kennedy, Scalia, and Thomas will someday join Roger B. Taney in the history books.

I am not a lawyer. But the Constitution is written for the citizens, not the citizens who are also lawyers.

Continue reading

Senator Kerry: “We need to invest in our infrastructure.”

Senator John Kerry

Senator John Kerry

I met Senator John Kerry at the Harvey Nash Inc. Leadership Breakfast at the Plaza Hotel in NYC on Friday, March 2, 2012. He spoke unequivocally about infrastructure, energy, mass transit, and foreign policy, saying,

We need to invest in our infrastructure. The people who talk the loudest about ‘American Exceptionalism’ are destroying America.

Sending our children to college is competitiveness, not elistism.

“The American Infrastructure Financing Authority,” Kerry said, “would generate revenue by loaning money to people to build infrastructure. It has bi-partisan support. It should be a slam-dunk. But we can’t get it passed because of Republicans intransigence. The American people have to force the Republicans to compromise and force the Democrats to stand tall.

In the ’70’s we were #1 in college graduates; now we’re 16 th. We were #1 of the G 20, now we’re 5th.

The Acela can go 150 mph – and it does for about 18 miles between New York City and Washington, DC. It can’t go 150 mph over the Chesapeake Bay bridge because in doing so it may wind up in the Chesapeake. It can’t go 150 mph in the Baltimore tunnel because the vibrations may damage the tunnel.

Acela

The Acela

Editor’s note: The Acela runs it’s top rated speed for 16 miles on a 220 mile trip – about 7.3%. The trip on regular Amtrak is 4 hours. The trip on Acela is 3 1/2 hours. That’s about 62.9 mph.If the tracks would allow the train to make the run at it’s design speed of 15o miles per hour the trip would take an hour and a half, not 3 1/2 hours. Average 125 mph, it would take about an hour and 45 minutes.

Image of wall of Bridge to the Holland Tunnel

A few years ago we were first in manufacturing solar energy. Now China has taken over that industry.

China spends 9% of GDP on infrastructure. Germany spends 5%. We spend less than 2%.

We are using the infrastructure that our parents and grandparents built. And it’s crumbling!

Wall of the bridge leading to the Holland Tunnel

Wall of the bridge leading to the Holland Tunnel

In order to compete we must rebuild our infrastructure – and send our children to school.  (And sending your children to school is not elitist.)

Kerry spoke like a Keynesian:

Saving GM and Chrysler saved about 1 million jobs. Had they been allowed to fail Ford and all the suppliers, and all the clothing stores, food stores, delis, diners, restaurants – all would have failed. Saving the American auto industry saved the midwest from a Depression. That’s not socialism; that’s what government is for. And Ford, GM, and Chrysler are profitable!

Editor’s note: Ford did not take TARP money. GM, Ford and Chrysler are building cars people want to buy, and people are buying them.  The following chart shows market capitalization, stock price, earnings per share, price earnings ratio and net profit margin for GM and Ford. Chrysler is not included because it is privately held.

Company Valuation Stock Price EPS P/E Ratio Net Profit
(Billions) (3/2/12) Margin
Ford $48.4 $12.72 $5.01 2.54 14.84
General Motors $41.4 $26.45 $4.58 5.77 4.06

According to San Francisco Chronicle / Bloomberg, here,

U.S. auto sales accelerated to the fastest pace in four years …  a 15.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, exceeding the 14.2 million pace that was the average of 17 analysts’ estimates… the best since February 2008 when U.S. sales ran at a 15.5 million rate,

GM deliveries rose 1.1 percent to 209,306 cars and light trucks, beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.8 percent decrease. Chrysler sales increased 40 percent to 133,521 and Ford Motor Co.’s climbed 14 percent to 178,644. Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. deliveries each gained 12 percent, while Nissan Motor Co. sales rose 16 percent.

Yet Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul persist in the lunacy that bailing out GM and Chrysler was a mistake.  If they don’t want to govern, why do they want to be President?

Kerry also said:

Successful businesses today have a lot of cash. But the executives are reluctant to invest because the economic climate is too uncertain. That’s why government must step in.

This statement could have been made in 1932 by Franklin Delano Roosevelt or John Maynard Keynes.

Kerry criticized Santorum. “Saying my grandfather was a coal miner, so I could go to college, go to grad school, get an MBA and a JD, then get elected to the Senate, then make millions lobbying, and tell you not to send your kids to college…” If that’s not elitism and demagoguery I don’t know what that is.

The current political climate in Washington is terrible, that’s why Olympia Snowe is leaving the Senate. The Republicans are intransigent, they refuse to compromise; they are focused on destroying Obama’s Presidency – and will sacrifice America to do it. When G W Bush was President it took 30 days to get a judge approved. Today it takes 100 days, maybe 200 days. There were two (2) filibusters in the 19th Century, and another two (2) in the 20th before WW II. Strom Thurmond’s filibuster of civil rights legislation, a few more in the 60’s. Today there are 100 filibusters per session.

And “do the math, folks, we can’t balance the budget on the backs of our poor and our seniors. We must raise revenues. The Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest 1% and 2% must end.”

Kerry spoke about money in politics, and the disaster that was the Citizens United decision.

He also noted that Congress has an approval rating of 8%. I know why. Or at least, why I have disgust and contempt for most of the members of the House and Senate. The Republicans won’t compromise; they are beholden to “King” Grover, aka Norquist the Zeroth, and Democrats are too willing to compromise.

However, he ended on a positive note. He is confident that President Obama will be reelected, and is also confident that America’s best days are yet to come. All we have to is take the money out of politics, force the Congress to change, reelect the good incumbents and throw the bums out.