Category Archives: Connecting the Dots

The Art of Gerrymandering – Part I

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The Original Gerry Mander

The Constitution tasks the House of Representatives with setting the number of U. S. citizens that its members may represent. The Apportionment Act of 1792 fixed the House of Representatives for the Third Congress at 105 members, one Representative for 33,000 constituents. The Census of 1790, first of its kind, found the young nation numbering around 3,900,000 individuals. For purposes of computing the ratio of representatives to those represented, slaves constituted three-fifths of a free person.

112 years on, 1901, roughly midway between the Constitution’s ratification and the present day, each Representative of the 57th Congress fielded the concerns of 213,000 people and carried a six-fold increase in “representational load” over his 1792 counterpart. The House then had 357 members representing around 76 million. Had the House stayed with its 1792 ratio of one Representative to 33,000 constituents, it would have had 2,303 members in 1901, far more than what the seating in the south wing of the Capitol building could accommodate.

114 years on, the 114th Congress finds a House of 435 voting members, a number which has been fixed since the Apportionment Act of 1911. These worthies now represent about 309 million, or roughly 710,000 citizens per Representative, a four-fold increase over the 1901 representational load and a twenty-four fold increase over that of 1792. At the original ratio, the House would have almost 9,364 members, a number making for a mad house – though some think it is anyway.

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Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios and “The Correction”

PL_Port.1508bAccording to Adam Haigh, Bloomberg Business the current stock market valuation “Correction” may be complete. Meanwhile, in the microeconomic world of energy, as illustrated above, the Sustainable Energy portfolio” I created in December, 2012, here, rose slightly above the close of trading Friday, August 21, 2015, while the Fossil Fuel portfolio, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial average closed below their values at the close of trading on 21 August, 2015.

Mr. Haigh, in  Asian Stocks Rise as U.S. Equity Rout Halted; China Futures Gain, wrote,

Asian stocks rose for a second day after U.S. shares halted a six-day rout.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9 percent to 127.93 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 3.9 percent, the most since 2011. Two things that have supported U.S. stocks in the past, dovish words from the Federal Reserve and improved economic data, halted a plunge that erased $2.2 trillion from equity values.

But the long term trend in energy stocks, first reported by me here in February, 2013, appears to be persistent. Solar and Wind stocks may be continuing to climb; Fossil fuel stocks may be continuing to decline. Either or both of these trends could, of course, reverse.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below. Continue reading

Energy Portfolios, 2 years 8 months Sustainable Energy Up 103%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34%

PLPort.1508On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 Million in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 Million in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $5.26 Million, down 34.28% overall, 12.85% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $16.2 Million, up 102.6%, 38.48% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25.74%, 9.65% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 16,460 on 8/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 37.8%, from 1,430 to close at 1,971 on 8/21/15.
  • The Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy portfolios, like the indices, are down in the last month.

The conclusion, that investors are moving away from Fossil Fuels and into Sustainable Energy, seems logical, if not obvious.

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On New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan

On August 17, 2015, I attended the Board of Public Utilities, BPU, hearings regarding New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan, EMP.

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

A lot of people, myself included, spoke about Sandy. (Photos, click here).

Many spoke of the need for the BPU to act independently of the Governor and think long term.

No one spoke about a need or want for more fossil fuels or more nuclear.

The lobbyist from the NJ GCA, The Gasoline, C-Store, Automotive Association told the commissioners how happy he was that he installed a solar energy system on his home and said that gas stations need robust electricity. They can’t simply install emergency generators that burn diesel or gasoline.

Image of the Lillgrund, Sweden wind farm, courtesy of Siemens

Lillgrund, Sweden, courtesy Siemens

I called for: 140% clean, renewable, sustainable electricity by 2030:

  • Solar: 3.5 GW
  • Wind: 3.5 GW
  • Batteries: 1.5 GW
  • Biofuel: 1.5 GW

Including:

  • 250 MW of solar in a 100 KW array on each of the 2500 public schools,
  • 125 MW of battery backups, in a 50 KW Tesla Powerwall or equivalent system on each public school,
  • These would give us emergency shelters, with power, in every community in New Jersey.
  • A Capstone microturbine, or the equivalent at each sewage treatment plant.

These, I explained, would make the grid more resilient.

I also added that Wall Street appears to be abandoning fossil fuels. This observation is based on the data collected from Dec. 12, 2012, and published on Popular Logistics, here, that show that for the period from Dec. 21, 2012 to July 21, 2015,

  • Sustainable Energy: Up 121%, 46.7% per year.
  • Fossil Fuel: DOWN 25% overall, -9.26% per year,
  • S&P 500: Up 47.54%, 18.41% per year.

The full text of my prepared remarks is below:

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 7 months Sustainable Energy Up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%

PLPort.1507On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.09 Million, down 23.93%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $17.64 Million, up 120.54%.
  • Both Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy are down slightly in the last month.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.6%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 18,016 on 7/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.6%, from 1,430 to close at 2,110 on 7/21/15.

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Greece, Antiquities and a Far Out Way Out

Elgin Marbles in the British Museum

The National Debt of Greece, according to National Debt Clocks . Org, here, as of Thursday, July 10, 2015, 10:45 PM EST, was $380 Billion USD and 345 Billion Euros.

A lot of money, but only $32k EU per person, only slightly higher than the typical American college student’s debt. (US News reported, here, “69 percent [of 2013 graduates] left school with an average of $28,400 in student loan debt.”)

But back to Greece …

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Energy Portfolios, 2 1/2 years Sustainable Energy Up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18.2%

PLPort.2015.6.21On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.54 Million, down 18.24%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.259 Million, up 128.24%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.6%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 18,061 on 6/20/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.55%, from 1,430 to 2,110.
  • The Energy Portfolios and the Indices are down in the last month.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 5 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%

PLPort.1505On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.95 Million, down 13.1%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.98 Million, up 137.3%.
  • Both Fossil Fuel and Sustainable Energy are down slightly in the last month.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 39.7%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 18,286 on 5/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 49%, from 1,430 to 2,131.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 4 Months: Sustainable Energy up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%

PLPort.2015.4.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $7.0 Million, down 12.1%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $19.0 Million, up 138.1%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.1%, from 13,091 to 17,950.
  • The S&P 500 is up 46.6%, from 1,430 to 2,097.

The conclusion appears to be that sustainable energy is as good for the portfolio as it is for the planet.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: UP 128%, Fossil Fuels: DOWN 16%

PLPort.2015.3.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the Fossil Fuel space. The pattern, clear by March, 2013, is the Sustainable Energy Space is outperforming and the Fossil Fuel space is underperforming the indices.

Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs,

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio is now worth $6.7 Million, down 16.07%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is now worth $18.2 Million, up 127.62%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.47%, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to 18,209 on 3/20/15
  • The S&P 500 is up 47.42%, from 1,430 to 2,108.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 109%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 11.8%

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On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs,

  • Fossil Fuel portfolio: from $8.0 M to $7.06 Million, down 11.76%.
  • Sustainable Energy portfolio: from $8.0 M to $16.73 Million, up 109.18%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: from 13,091 to 18,140, up 34.15 %,
  • The S&P 500: from 1,430 to 2,110,  up 42.10%.

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If Not Vaccines, What Triggers Autism?

Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman in Casablanca, 1943

Humphrey Bogart as Rick and Ingrid Bergman as Ilsa in Casablanca, 1942

“Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine” – “Casablanca.

Once rare, the incidence of Autism has increased exponentially from less than 0.02% of boys to 2.38%.

Before the MMR Vaccine: 400 to 500 died each year as Millions contracted the disease. Due to widespread administration of the vaccine, the incidence of Measles dropped to 37 reported cases in 2004.  But because people believe (falsely) that the MMR vaccine triggers Autism, they stopped immunizing their children. There were 644 cases of Measles in 2014.

If the MMR Vaccine does not trigger Autism, what does?  Glyphosate? Possibly. And what’s Glyphosate? The active ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup.

This is a story of unintended consequences.

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Energy Portfolios, 2 years 1 Month: Sustainable Energy up 85%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 14.6%

PLPort.2015.1.21

On Dec. 21, 2012, drying off from Hurricane Sandy, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34.15 % from 12/21/12 to 1/21/15
  • The S&P 500 is up 42.10%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio has dropped 14.55%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 85.09%.

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Energy Portfolios, 24 Months: Sustainable Energy up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%

PLEP_M24On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy spaces and eight in the fossil fuels spaces. The results:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.2 % from 12/21/12 to 12/19/14.
  • The S&P 500 is up 44.8% from 12/21/12.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio has dropped 10.00%.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 91.34% from Dec. 21, 2012 but down from August, 2014.

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The War on Coal or War for our Grandchildren and our Biosphere?

Earth from Space. Courtesy NASA & the American Taxpayer

Earth from Space. Courtesy NASA & the American Taxpayer

Coral Davenport, in the New York Times, writes (here),

“President Obama could leave office with the most aggressive, far-reaching environmental legacy of any occupant of the White House. Yet it is very possible that not a single major environmental law will have passed during his two terms in Washington.

“Instead, Mr. Obama has turned to the vast reach of the Clean Air Act of 1970, which some legal experts call the most powerful environmental law in the world. Faced with a Congress that has shut down his attempts to push through an environmental agenda, Mr. Obama is using the authority of the act passed at the birth of the environmental movement to issue a series of landmark regulations on air pollution, from soot to smog, to mercury and planet-warming carbon dioxide.”

The coal industry skels from both parties consider this a “War on Coal.” Environmentalists could argue that it is a war for our grandchildren, a war for the biosphere, and even a war for a competitive 21st Century economy. Political hyperbole aside, it seems that any “War on Coal” is being waged by the methane and fracking industries, OPEC, and the “Invisible Hand” of the marketplace, not the President of the United States and the United States Environmental Protection Agency, EPA.