In 1953 President Eisenhower nominated Charles Wilson to be his Secretary of Defense. Wilson, then the President of General Motors, had overseen GM’s war production during World War II. During his confirmation hearings he was asked if he could make a decision that was bad for GM. His response is remembered as a classic example of arrogance – “What’s good for GM is good for America.”
However, that’s not exactly what he said.
Continue reading
Tesla, with a market capitalization of $1.137 Trillion at the close of trading on Friday, November 19, 2021, is worth more than GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Daimler Benz, VW COMBINED. 45% more.
Add in the value of Nisan, Hyundai, and Stellantis, which owns Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, and other brands, and Tesla is still worth 25.8 % more than the rest of the major auto companies. See Table 1.
More surprising is that Tesla, is worth 39% more than Exxon Mobil, Shell, Conoco Philips, Chevron Texaco, and BP Amoco combined. See Table 2.
Arguably, Toyota set the stage for energy efficiency with the 1997 launch of the Prius (click here). And Fisker, launched in 2007, could have been Tesla. Coupled with the fact that other car companies are introducing electric vehicles, including the Chevy Bolt, the Ford Mustang Mach-e and the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Fisker Ocean, etc. it is clear that with Tesla, Elon Musk has changed the world.
Continue reading
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space, as of the close of trading on 8/20/21, eight (8) years and eight (8) months later
The Sustainable Energy companies have increased dramatically in value, the Fossil Fuel companies have decreased in value.
Continue reading
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
In recent months the Sustainable Energy portfolio has dropped and the Fossil Fuel portfolio has increased. However, this may prove to be a short term correction that has more to do with macro-geopolitical events emanating from Washington, DC than global macroeconomic factors.
As of the close of trading 59 months later,
In Addition
The details are below.
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
As of the close of trading 56 months later:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $1.0 Million into each of eight sustainable energy companies and $1.0 Million into each of eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of various companies, as of the close of trading 55 months later,
Back in December, 2012 I started this experiment in sustainable investing. I took $16 million imaginary dollars and invested them, in imaginary $1.0 Million chunks, in 8 sustainable energy companies and 8 fossil fuel companies. The results are:
As of the close of trading on December 21, 2016:
As of the close of trading on November 21, 2016:
Wall St. 1/21/16. On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space.
Today it is worth an imaginary $23.48 Million because while the Fossil Fuel portfolio dropped 42.8% of it’s total value, the Sustainable Energy portfolio increased 135.6%.
This excludes the value of dividends and transaction costs, but includes the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
This month’s post was delayed due to preparations for and digging out from Blizzard Jonas.
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
As of the close of trading on November 20, 2015:
It’s not a war on coal. It’s a paradigm shift.Think about it. We don’t use whale oil or kerosene for street lamps. We did, 100 years ago.
This of course, has geopolitical ramifications. It’s not just carbon dioxide, which is changing the climate and acidifying the oceans. Like Al Queda, Hamas and Hezbollah, ISIS finances its operations with petrodollars. (The difference is that Hamas is supported by Emirates and Kuwait, Hezbollah by Iran, Al Queda by our friends the Saudis, while ISIS has its own oil wells.) Earlier this year NJ’s Honorable Governor Chris Christie, a candidate for President, gave Exxon a $9 Billion gift (which is being challenged in the courts). BP was the beneficiary of the 1953 coup by the US under President Eisenhower and the UK which toppled the democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Mohammed Mossagedgh of Iran and propped up the Shah until the revolution in 1979. Shell has spent something like $12 Billion in failed attempts to drill the Arctic. BP, Transocean and Halliburton brought us the Deepwater Horizon; Halliburton also profited from the US Led war in Iraq.
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
The conclusion appears to be that sustainable energy is as good for the portfolio as it is for the planet.
We are watching a paradigm shift.
How else can we explain the dramatic rise of the Sustainable Energy portfolio, the equally dramatic underperformance of the Fossil Fuel portfolio, compared to the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 since I started this experiment on Dec. 21, 2012? The data are in my post of June 24, 2014, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%.
Consider these questions:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree and Lighting Sciences in the LED space, GTAT, which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers, and today is diversifying, First Solar and Sunpower in the solar space, Vestas, a wind company, Solazyme a biofuel company and Next Era, a utility. The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies BP, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil and RD Shell, the coal company Peabody Coal, and Haliburton and Transocean, companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.
On Dec. 21, 2011, with $16 Imaginary Million, I created an investment simulation. I invested $1.0 Million in imaginary money in each of eight fossil fuel companies and eight sustainable energy companies. As of the close of trading 11 months later, Friday, Nov. 22, 2013, the trend, clearly evident after three months, in March of this year, continues.
Note that this represents a retreat of 4.39% from the high of 156.14%, in October, 2013.
As discussed in September and October, last month, in Septermber, 2013, in “Investing for the Future,” and October, in “Sustainable Investing: Green Energy, Green Economy,” the important question is: Is this a trend or a bubble? As I wrote, I think it’s a trend.
The 2,000 pound question, after Typhoon Haiyon, Hurricanes Sandy, Irene and Katrina, after the fires of 2012 and 2013, the Missouri River Floods of 2011 – which knocked out the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant – the super-tornadoes of 2013 – one with a two mile wide contact point on land, which tore through Oklahoma (CNN / National Geographic / Zerohedge) is will we survive to make the transition to clean sustainable energy?
or rather:
The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.