LED Lamps – The Paradigm is Shifting

40 and 65 watt equivalents from CREE and Lighting SciencesI just bought some LED bulbs at Home Depot. The bulbs, from Cree and Lighting Sciences, are sold under the “ecosmart” ™ brand. The Lighting Sciences bulbs will go into my bathroom.  The CREE bulbs will go into the bedrooms, family room, and the kitchen. Over their 35,000 lifespan, each LED bulb will outlast 14 or 15 incandescents, or 4 or 5 compact flourescents and will use 16% of the power of the incandescent bulbs or 75% of the power of the compact flourescents. At $0.14 per kwh, the LEDs will consume $51.45 worth of power over their lifetimes, compared to $68.60 for the CFL’s and $318.50 for the incandescents. This is summarized in Table 1, below.

Comparison of LED, Incandescent Filiment, and CFL Light Bulbs
Description   Filiment         CFL         LED
Wattage 65 14 10.5
Bulb lifespan (hours) 875 8,000 35,000
Electricity (kwh) per 35,000 hours 2762.5 595 446.25
Electricity cost at $0.14 / kwh $318.50 $68.60 $51.45
Table 1

 

CREE LED High Hat, offCREE LED High Hat, onThese are “Dimmable.” They are also expensive – the 65watt equivalent, rated for 35,000 hours, costs $24.97; the 40watt-equivalent, rated for 50,000 hours, costs $9.97. Lowes and CostCo have similar units. The units from Lowes are currently more expensive. The prices are offset by the electricity savings and durability of the bulbs. These bulbs should last 15 to 20 years. If they are on 4 hours per day. If electricity prices don’t change, the LEDs will cost 3/4 the cost of a CFL and 1/6 the cost of an incandescent. In addition, since they use much less electricity, they will throw off much less heat. Thus, I will also save on air conditioning bills. Since 1 LED bulb will last as long as 4 CFL’s or 15 incandescents, I will also spend much less time changing bulbs – once installed, I expect to change the bulbs, every 15 to 20 years.

Like old fashioned incandescents, invented by Thomas Edison in the 1800’s, and unlike compact flourescents, or CFL’s, LED bulbs use no mercury or lead. They are easy to dispose of; if they break they do not create a toxic waste issue.

They offer three very clear advantages: They use much less power, they last much longer, they release no toxic wastes when they break.

The 65-watt equivalent bulbs, from CREE, produce 575 lumens of light on 10.5 watts of power.  They have a 3-year warranty, but as noted, are rated for 35,000 hours of use. They also feature an integrated housing to fit inside a 6″ can or “high hat.” These are dimmable. If on for an hour, each will consume 10.5 watt-hours, 0.0105 kwh.

LEDs from Lighting SciencesThe 40-watt equivalent bulbs, from Lighting Sciences, produce 429 lumens of light with 9 watts. Thus, if on for an hour, each will consume 9 watt-hours, or 0.009 kilowatt hours, as opposed to 0.04 kwh. The three used in my bathroom will consume 0.027 kwh, per hour as opposed to 0.12 kwh per hour from the bulbs they are replacing. These are for indoor use only, and should last 50,000 hours. I am concerned about heat dissipation in the fixture, and will probably replace the glass housings.

LED & CFL at turn-on This picture shows LED and CFL bulbs in the bathroom at turn-on. Note that there is no “warm-up” time for the LED bulb.

Cree, a $2.5 billion company, trades under the symbol CREE. Its price, at the close of trading, on 12/23/11, was $21.66 per share.  It’s 52-week range is $20.25 to $69.21. Cree has an EPS, or earnings per share of $0.92. a P/ E, or price / earnings ratio of 23.60, a debt to asset ratio of 0.00, and net operating margins of 17.08. Cree has 4,753 employees. Institutions own 78% of the company.

Lighting Sciences, a $284 million company, trades under the symbol LSCG. Its price, at the close of trading on 12/23/11, was $1.39 per share. The debt to asset ratio is 8.52. It’s 52-week range is $1.32 to $5.39. The operating margins are negative -122.84, and the EPS is negative: -$2.59. Lighting Sciences has 152 employees. Institutions do not own this company.

This is probably a good time to invest in CREE.  It might be a great time to speculate in Lighting Sciences.

The paradigm is shifting. Or, as Dylan once said, “The times, they are a-changin’.”

Chanukah: Festival of Lights, Conservation & Renewable Energy

Hanukkah Menorah

Photo courtesy Joseph Skibell

The Jewish celebration of Chanukah, the “Festival of Lights,” commemorates the successful struggle for freedom and independence of Israel from the Selucid Greeks,  about 2200 years ago.  At the conclusion of this war, the Macabees purified The Temple in Jerusalem and sought to relight their “Eternal Lamp.”

They only had enough oil for one day. The process by which they made oil required eight days. Miraculously, one day’s oil lasted eight days.

Clearly, God believes in energy conservation and, as they used olive oil, renewable energy.

A brief history:

Alexander the Great, aka Alexander of Macedonia, acquired the Kingdom of Judah without a battle. But his empire collapsed after his death. The Kingdom of Judah became part of the Selucid Greek Empire. Where Alexander promised the Jews religious freedom, the Selucids demanded that the Jews worship the Greek pantheon. The Jews rebelled, following the Macabees. They won. The Macabees established the Hasmonean Dynasty, which ruled for 101 years, from 164 Before the Common Era, BCE, to 63 BCE, until the Romans came, saw, and conquered.

The Jews, then known as the Judeans, from the province of Judea, subsequently rebelled against Rome.  The First Jewish–Roman War took was fought from year 66 to year 73, the Kitos War was fought from 115 to 117, and the Bar Kokhba revolt was fought from 132 to 135. From these rebellions we get two holidays: Tesha B’Av, which is observed by Jews as a day of mourning, and Christmas, which is generally not celebrated by Jewish people today.

More details are on Wikipedia, and, in a more comprehensive fashion, in Jews, God and History, by Max I. Dimont. ASIN: B0012H8UJI, 1962.

The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012

space-apple-logo

 

Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

  1.  Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

Here are the details … Continue reading →

Moore's Law Applied to Solar Power

Gordon MooreDoes “Moore’s Law” hold for Solar Power?

In New Jersey, between 2001 and 2010, we went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW. This is illustrated below.

Solar Capacity, NJ, 2001 to 2010. Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211 MW, or 211,000 KW in 7000 systems

Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211,000 KW in 7,000 systems. Copyright, 2010, L. J. Furman. All Rights Reseved.

This is the “hockey stick” curve of exponential growth typical of positive feedback mechanisms. I expect this kind of growth to continue for the next few years as prices drop, until solar meets 25% to 35% of New Jersey’s needs. This would be another 2500 to 3500 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011 and 4000 to 5000 systems of 300 to 500 MW in 2012 , and brings me back to “Does ‘Moore’s Law,’ or a corollary, apply to PV Solar?” or “Is this a bubble?” Continue reading →

MIT Study suggests U.S. power grid improvements

From MIT Study: US Can Meet Power Grid Challenges of Future, by Gino Troiani,

According to a recent two-year study commissioned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology‘s Energy Initiative, if certain measures are taken, the answer is yes. The study was composed of 13 MIT faculty members, 1 Harvard faculty member, 10 graduate students and an advisory panel of 19 leaders from academia, industry and the government.

“The grid will face a number of serious challenges over the next two decades, while new technologies also present valuable opportunities for meeting these challenges,” the study says.

The report concluded the grid is adequate to meet today’s demands. However, it also said the measures the U.S. takes now will dramatically affect the grid throughout the next 20 years.

Some of the study’s key findings and recommendations include:

  • The diversity of ownership and regulatory structures within the U.S. grid complicates policy-making.
  • To combat cyber security threats, a single federal agency should be given the responsibility across the entire power sector, while increasing bulk and power and distribution systems.
  • Utilities should generate “fixed” network costs via customer charges that do not vary with the amount of electricity they use, but rather at set fees.
  • The electric and power industry should invest more revenue in the research and development of computational tools for bulk power system operations, methods for wide-area transmission planning, and procedures for response and recovery from cyberattacks.
  • Increased data and research on the grid should be compiled and made more easily accessible to help improve the decision making process in the areas of developing and improving the  grid.

Via ExecutiveGov.com.

Vaccine Developed Against Ebola: Jennifer Carpenter, BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16011748

Scientists have developed a vaccine that protects mice against a deadly form of the Ebola virus.

First identified in 1976, Ebola fever kills more than 90% of the people it infects.

The researchers say that this is the first Ebola vaccine to remain viable long-term and can therefore be successfully stockpiled.

The results are reported in the journal Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences.

Ebola is transmitted via bodily fluids, and can become airborn. Sufferers experience nausea, vomiting, internal bleeding and organ failure before they die.

Although few people contract Ebola each year, its effects are so swift and devastating that it is often feared that it could be used against humans in an act of terroism.

All previously developed vaccines have relied on injecting intact, but crippled, viral particles into the body.

Long-term storage tends to damage the virus, paralysing the vaccine’s effectiveness.

The new vaccine contains a synthetic viral protein, which prompts the immune system to better recognise the Ebola virus, and is much more stable when stored long-term.

The vaccine protects 80% of the mice injected with the deadly strain, and survives being “dried down and frozen,” said biotechnologist Charles Arntzen from Arizona State University who was involved in its development.

He said the next step is to try the vaccine on a strain of Ebola that is closer to the one that infects humans.

 

Morgan Stanley settles charges of price-fixing in NYC area electricity maret

In a settlement which doesn’t seem to have been much noticed by major media outlets, Morgan Stanley has agreed to pay $4.8 million to settle charges of acting, in concert with energy company Keyspan, in anticompetitive behavior affecting the NYC electricity market. Here’s the Department of Justice press release of September 30, 2011, with the caption Morgan Stanley Rigs NYC Electricity Bids  Here’s an excerpt.

The Department of Justice today announced a settlement with Morgan Stanley that requires Morgan to pay $4.8 million for violating the antitrust laws by entering into an agreement with KeySpan Corporation that restrained competition in the New York City electricity capacity market. The department said the agreement likely resulted in a price increase for electricity retailers, which, in turn, led to increased electricity prices for consumers. The department’s Antitrust Division today filed a civil antitrust complaint in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York and submitted a proposed settlement that, if approved by the court, would resolve the lawsuit. The settlement provides for disgorgement of profits for a violation of the antitrust laws and requires Morgan to pay $4.8 million to the United States. The department previously entered into a settlement with KeySpan that required the company to disgorge $12 million in profits for its role in the agreement, which was approved by the court in February 2011. “This settlement with a major financial institution will signal to the financial services community that use of derivatives for anticompetitive ends will not be tolerated,” said Sharis A. Pozen, Acting Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division. “Disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, as was paid here, is an effective Antitrust Division tool to remedy harm to competition.” According to the complaint, in January 2006, KeySpan and Morgan executed a financial derivative for New York City capacity while Morgan simultaneously entered into an off-setting derivative with Astoria Generating Company, KeySpan’s largest competitor in the capacity market. The agreements effectively transferred to KeySpan a financial interest in Astoria’s capacity, thereby ensuring that KeySpan would withhold substantial output from the capacity market and increase prices. For its part, Morgan earned revenues by retaining the spread between the fixed prices of the two derivative agreements. The anticompetitive effects of the Morgan/KeySpan agreement lasted until March 2008, when regulatory conditions eliminated KeySpan’s ability to affect the market price of electricity capacity.

While we’re happy that the excellent attorneys in DOJ’s Antitrust Division brought this case,  the press release leaves seval questions neither asked nor answered:

  1. How much did Morgan Stanley and Keyspan make? Without knowing that, it’s impossible to determine whether the settlement is sufficient.
  2. Did anyone at Morgan Stanley or Keyspan lose their job, receive a demotion, or lose a bonus?
  3. Did the settlement negotiations include  an agreement to issue a press release on a Friday, lessening the likelihood that major news  organizations would see the release before it went stale?

Measles outbreak in Europe

Via the BBC, alarming news. The World Health Organization warns of measles outbreak in Europe, which has included 26,000 cases and nine deaths.
From WHO issues Europe measles warning:

European countries need to act now to tackle measles outbreaks, the World Health Organization warns. The WHO report says there were over 26,000 measles cases in 36 European countries from January to October 2011. Western European countries reported 83% of those cases, with 14,000 in France alone. In England and Wales, there were just under 1,000 confirmed measles cases in that period – compared with just 374 in the whole of 2010. Altogether, measles outbreaks in Europe have caused nine deaths, including six in France, and 7,288 hospitalisations. France has now launched a nationwide campaign to raise awareness about the need for MMR vaccination. Jean-Yves Grall, the Director-General for Health in France, said: “France can simply not afford to have deaths, painful and costly hospitalisations, disruptions to work and school from a completely vaccine-preventable disease.” Ninety per cent of European cases were amongst adolescents and adults who had not been vaccinated or people where it was not known if they had been vaccinated or not. And measles from Europe has been linked to outbreaks in several other countries including Brazil, Canada and Australia.

‘Potential danger’

Zsuzsanna Jakab, WHO regional director for Europe, said: “The increase in measles in European countries reveals a serious challenge to achieving the regional measles elimination goal by 2015.

“Every country in the European region must take the opportunity now to raise coverage amongst susceptible populations, improve surveillance and severely reduce measles virus circulation before the approaching measles high season.”    A spokeswoman for the Health Protection Agency, which covers England and Wales, said: “Anyone who missed out on MMR as a child will continue to be at risk of measles, which explains why we are continuing to see cases in a broad age range.”     “We are again reminding parents and young adults of the importance of immunisation. We cannot stress enough that measles is serious and in some cases it can be fatal.”  “Measles is a highly infectious and potentially dangerous illness which spreads very easily. Whether you stay here in the UK or travel abroad it is crucial that individuals who may be at risk are fully immunised.” 

XXX

revenge of the electric car – NYTimes.com Search

Times Topics: Tesla Motors

If a struggling Detroit could not make an electric vehicle, then a Silicon …. Chris Paine, the director of “Revenge of the Electric Car,” discusses …

Times Topics: Elon Musk

The director, whose “Revenge of the Electric Car” had its premiere this past weekend, was joined onstage on Saturday by Elon Musk, the Tesla Motors chief …

Times Topics: Tribeca Film Festival (NYC) – – Times Topics

13 hours ago … The director, whose “Revenge of the Electric Car” had its premiere this past weekend, was joined onstage on Saturday by Elon Musk, the Tesla …

Budget Shortfall Could Imperil Subsidies for Electric Vehicles …

The best known subsidy for electric vehicles, a $7500 tax credit that qualifying buyers … Chris Paine Returns with ‘Revenge of the Electric Car’ …November 10, 2011 – Wheels

via revenge of the electric car – NYTimes.com Search.

In Thailand, an Innovative Fight Against Cervical Cancer – NYTimes.com

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

Published: September 26, 2011

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POYAI, Thailand — Maikaew Panomyai did a little dance coming out of the examination room, switching her hips, waving her fists in the air and crowing, in her limited English: “Everything’s O.K.! Everything’s O.K.!”

Small Fixes

A special section on low-cost innovations that can save thousands of lives.

Vinegar to Fight Cervical Cancer

Stamp-Sized Liver Tests

Sharing the Burden of AIDS

Poisonous Mosquito Delicacies

One AIDS Fix Progresses Slowly

Preventing H.I.V. in Babies

One Entrepreneur’s Vision

A Global Triumph From Tiny Errors

Thailand’s Village Volunteers

Why Simple Ideas are Sometimes Complex

In the Field

Vitamins for Babies

Self-Adjustable Eyeglass Lenses

Bubbles for Babies

A Biodegradable Toilet

The Compression Suit

The Year-Long Straw

An Outhouse That Recycles

The Sari Filter

Overdose Rescue Kits

Shining a Light on Jaundice

Texting Away Counterfeit Drugs

Safe Birth Kits

Cheap Showers

Reader Challenge

Can You Solve This Global Health Issue?

The New York Times

Thailand is a leader in adopting the cryotherapy technique.

Translation: The nurse just told me I do not have cervical cancer, and even the little white spot I had treated three years ago is still gone.

What allowed the nurse to render that reassuring diagnosis was a remarkably simple, brief and inexpensive procedure, one with the potential to do for poor countries what the Pap smear did for rich ones: end cervical cancer’s reign as the No. 1 cancer killer of women. The magic ingredient? Household vinegar.

via In Thailand, an Innovative Fight Against Cervical Cancer – NYTimes.com.

Jeremy Grantham at Marlboro College – on Investing for Sustainability

Jeremy GranthamJeremy Grantham, the founder of GMO LLC, a hedge fund with $93 Billion under management, will speak Friday, 12/2/2011, at 5:00 PM at the Marlboro College Grad School, 28 Vernon Street, Brattleboro, Vermont.

Grantham has written “Everything you need to know about global warming in 5 minutes,” which can be found at Think Progress and The Big Picture.”

He says “In the last 200 years we have increased the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by about 40%.”

(Ed. note: We have pumped about 1.0 trillion tons of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. This has increased the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb heat and water.)

It is prudent and conservative to ask “What will happen next?”

Grantham continues:

What is the cost of lowering CO2 output and having the long-term effect of increasing CO2 turn out to be nominal?  The cost appears to be equal to foregoing, once in your life, six months’ to one year’s global growth – 2% to 4% or less.  The benefits, even with no warming, include: energy independence from the Middle East; more jobs, since wind and solar power and increased efficiency are more labor-intensive than another coal fired power plant; less pollution of streams and air; and an early leadership role for the U.S. in industries that will inevitably become important.

Conversely, what are the costs of not acting on prevention when the results turn out to be serious:  costs that may dwarf those for prevention; and probable political destabilization from droughts, famine, mass migrations, and even war.  And … what might be the cost at the very extreme end of the distribution: Definitely life changing, possibly life threatening.”

It would be interesting to hear Mr. Grantham’s views on Cape Wind, Solar Energy, Marine Hydro, the Obama – Buffett idea to tax wealthy people, and the Popular Logistics plan for 100% Clean, Renewable Energy (here). However, I suspect I know what he might say:

How would you pay for it?

Granted that if we factored the environmental costs of carbon dioxide, arsenic, lead, mercury, radioactive wastes, zinc, etc. coal, oil, methane, and nuclear would be much more expensive than they are believed to be today. But we don’t factor in those costs….

In New Jersey between 2001 and 2010, e went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW, and I expect another 3000 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011. This is exponential growth, leading to the following questions:

  • Does ‘Moore’s Law’ apply to Solar?
  • Is this a Bubble?
  • Or Is it a Paradigm – Shift?

Lifehacker: 10 must-haves for Tech Friendly Go-Bags

We very much like Whitson Gordon’s  Top 10 Gadgets You Should Have In Your Go Bag – it’s certainly an outstanding and well-reasoned Go-Bag list for a tech-savvy person who has to relocate. We’d only add what not only belongs in every go-bag – but, as the 9/11 Commission recommended, the one always-carry item for everyone ought to be a compact,  rugged, LED flashlight. Here are some excerpts – with our additions and comments:

10. Cable Shorteners of the biggest annoyances the traveling geek encounters is a tornado of tangled cables in her backpack. If you need to neatly organize your cables, grab some cable shorteners like the stylish, cheap Applecores. MacBook users will also love the Quirky PowerCurl wrapper for their AC adapter (though make sure you’re wrapping that cord correctly), and a simple binder clip makes a dandy headphone wrapper for the traveling music junkie.

In our experience, the weakest link in cable systems are delicate connectors at the ends of cables – particularly the spring-clips on RJ-45 and RJ-11 connectors, and recent experiences with micro-USB connected have led us to believe that the best practice for storing and transporting cables is not only wrapped for shortening, but also in containers to protect the integrity of connectors and cable.

 

 

I’ve had good luck with

GOP Debate On CNN, with Questions by American Enterprise Institute & Heritage Foundation

GOP Candidates, 2011, Courtesy CBS News

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet At the conclusion of the GOP debate, Wolf Blitzer thanked CNN‘s partners, the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. This partnership explains the framing of the debate on energy as “Burn Baby Burn” or “Drill Baby Drill.”

No questions were asked on the potential for renewable energy technologies, such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro. Nor were questions asked on climate change or on the pollution and cleanup costs from coal, oil, gas, or nuclear.

Energy policy and climate are linked, and could be addressed in one question:

This summer people in Texas experienced an extended drought and 100 days in which the temperature was over 100 degrees (CBS). Is this normal? Is this the ‘new normal?’ If this is triggered by burning so much carbon based fuel in the last 200 years that we have elevated the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide from about 260 parts per million in 1800 to about 390 ppm today (350.org), and we have burned mountains of coal, lakes of oil and gas, is it prudent to continue to burn coal, oil, and gas, or should we embark on a plan to transition to non-fossil-carbon sources of energy, such as wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc? And if so, how quickly?

This could also be asked in a national security context:

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, identified energy and climate change among the constraints which, in his words, “could place the United States at a strategic turning point…. Glaciers are melting at a faster rate, causing water supplies to diminish in Asia. Rising sea levels could lead to a mass migration and displacement similar to what we saw in Pakistan’s floods last year.  And other shifts could reduce the arable land needed to feed a growing population in Africa, for example. Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.” (NRDC / WWF) What does this mean for the USA in the next 4 to 8 years and what should the President do about it?
Continue reading →